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Could it be that upon FDA approval of RT002 for Plantar fasciitis for therapeutic IND, payers will be more inclined to reimburse thus driving market share/rev ? Duration of treatment would be a big plus for RT002 as further support.
RVNC - weird action last two days. High volume early AM but hardly moves other than back to slow down drift. It appears either ATM is active or being shorted.
Bit puzzling to continue to see slight weakness after all the impressive presentations by CEO Dan. I was hoping institutions would start loading by now
I still say 20% is conservative. Botox pts demographics tend to be well off and well informed. Knowing both are tox but one has proprietary peptide to keep the tox better localized and for longer period, they will switch.
Revance' tox is truly a next gen mouse trap.
Why 20% if I may ask ? Seems low considering duration effect (results pending). I would ascribe at least 40% if they get the home run of 6 mos in Sakura. Even if Revance prices it's tox high, many would prefer fewer injections at less risk of something going wrong. AGN has to make it ~50% less on price to stay competitive if 4x vs 2x becomes reality.
We are still far from post Belmont data release pics which was in 40's.
I expect to be in mid 30's in next few weeks. I think presentations have been awesome by Dan
Perceptive Edelman's interview was quite bullish too. To quote,
There is a level of skepticism about Versartis that is unfounded. It has a long-acting growth hormone that you inject every two weeks. A big part of the market is kids who take the daily injections to improve their height. In the original study, there was a question about whether this was less effective than the daily. When Adam analyzed it, it looked roughly equivalent. Versartis has increased the dosage for the Phase 3 trial that finishes this fall. There’s every reason to think that will solidify the performance of the drug. The pediatric market is close to $2 billion worldwide. If Versartis’ long-acting hormone is the first approved for pediatric use, you can see them getting 30% to 50% of sales. Their plan is to price at parity with daily injections. The company has a market cap of $550 million. If they get to 50%, they could get close to $1 billion worldwide. Put a multiple of six times, which is about average for a product like this, and obviously that would make it a $6 billion market cap. Then there is the adult market, for improving lean body mass, which is approximately $1 billion now, and off-label users for anti-aging purposes, which of course the companies don’t encourage. There will still be doubters, but I’m giving you an example about how you might extrapolate. This company basically has one drug. The daily growth-hormone market is very competitive. Most of the companies who make and sell it don’t have anything long-acting in their pipeline. It’s more than likely a big company will want to sell this drug, say Teva Pharmaceuticals, NovoNordisk, Pfizer, or Roche.
Thanks again. CC starting at 7:30 mark clearly mentions both safety & composite PE&SE for Sakura 1&2 will be reported in 4Q. So agree we can expect a single PR.
Dew,
Per recent CC, RVNC management indicated "With regard to our SAKURA glabellar lines program, we plan to release Phase III pivotal trial results covering safety before we composite primary endpoint and the secondary endpoints including duration".
Does this mean safety and efficacy/duration will be reported in two different PR's ? Not sure why Revance is choosing to report in this manner. T.I.A
Agree. It was a great opportunity today to add FGEN or start a position.
Congratulations! Well deserved and respected. Thanks for all you share.
Are they done with ATM ? Thanks
ENTA - strong today up almost 5%
Don't see any particular news today other than $25m milestone payment from Abbvie recently.
One thing is sure in bios investing. Hard to be LT when from identifying right preclinical compound to getting it thru trials all the way to commercialization is fraught with chasm as deep as Grand Canyon.
But bio investors are unique breed. Risk takers who usually want to strike gold with each investment. Obviously no other sector offers such potential or the excitement.
I have been fairly successful investing in bios for several years now and still far from good timing wise !
Thanks for your reply. Logical but whence market is rational ?
Correction: I believe RVNC earnings are out on Aug 3rd Thursday after market close.
RVNC - Hitting the bids on low volume with no buyers ? With all the potential, surprised no takers at these levels (yet).
Hoping for good news tomorrow at least a confirmation everything is on track. Wish they get the financing over with. Management should know more they wait more they loose the premium
Agree 100%. Usually such folks are egoistic which clouds their scientific expertise. a true scientist is never biased.
I think based Botox market size and the growth it represents sans pricing pressure rhetoric, Revance shares could trade closer to $100 upon approval.
RVNC - Dew, are you adding at this dip? Not sure why street is it focused on valuation post RT002 approval as odds of that happening is high.
I understand short term swings but I would expect funds to start loading now and not wait until data readout.
T.I.A
RVNC - getting bit tired of these low volume slide. Wish I had more cash to add.
AKBA has no patent issue. I prefer not to characterize as an 'issue' until there is one.
I think you are wrong with your assertion. AKBA PR clearly says the exclusive agreement is with Vifor and not with Fresenius.
Usually a PR on collaboration is a joint exercise that's reviewed by both parties. No comments from Vifor supports the PR.
Cowen come out with $55 price target based on differentiated neurotoxin compound. Makes sense but likely the panicked shorts to cover and some to add more. I did
At this rate of slide, that 50% will evaporate in no time.
Yes. I see this as great opportunity to add.
We will be thanking ourselves end of the year.
Volatility is expected but with cheap EV, head scratcher for sure. I do see funds scooping up shares recent quarter (significant net positive).
15% haircut from recent highs is unexpected esp today
RVNC - continues to slide. Bizarre
Lawsuits are old news. Few years old and deemed to have no merits.
Solid catalysts for PH- COPD and PH-IPF P2 data read out coming mid year.
Science journals and research shows a mixture of NO and O2 really helps these patients. I would out odds of success for both trials near 75%.
I see stock climbing to $3+ range closer to trial r/o and over $5 on +ve data
Orbimed among others have filed to sell all their stake while ago. It is in SEC filings. PIRS
Traders !
Guys I am in for 10x nagger. Medical devices friendly bill is getting thru congress.
Also CARE award for Bellerophon today was nice
No webcast info available for today's presentation ?
RVNC - can't understand continued weakness albeit low volume today. It can't be all ATM selling. In Orlando conference presentation nothing new was shared.
Anyone see an issue for patient questionnaire to be included for RT002 efficacy review/data ? T.I.A
Anyone know why RVNC has been weak lately ? We should be north $25 considering where the bio indices are.
Also good chance they will be bought by end of the year. Entyce is going to be their cash cow as more 80% vet want to stock the drug based on the survey. Big pentup demand
Per company's CC soon after the data was released, they indicated that patients who died were very ill.
Still doesn't explain the higher rate on the Tx arm
$20 to $25
Happy holidays & Merry Christmas to all board members. With gratitude as I always learn something new.
No negative results. Simply not much of catalysts. Big one is PR if successful launch of Entyce Q1'17
However they can always announce additional partnership anytime ! Either expand Elanco deal or enter into new one with another big AHC pharma