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“Newcomers, that's because the book value is around 25 cents so it has a premium of some half a BILLION dollars while demonstrating little likelihood of being able to capture any of the market they have been pursuing for well over a decade. “
This is where we differ 180 degrees. My due diligence points to a very high probability of capturing a significant market share. Your conclusion is based on the theory that since they never have, they never will.
It is not an easy task to introduce a new technological innovation into a very hot sector. The incumbents are presenting their newest products to their customers and those customers have to listen to them as well as Lightwave Logic. The value proposition is vastly different with Lightwave’s being far superior. But, it is new so they have to be sure before replacing their incumbent supplier.
There will be those who are early adopters and they will demonstrate the technology to all and then the cautious will adopt. This is why I have always believed 2025 and 2026 will be the super ramp time frame.
The potential is enormous. The award winning science has set world records. The reliability and stability has been proven although the cautious want more proof. If you believe Dr Lebby is an honest man and has told the shareholders the truth about foundry compatibility and scalability, then the argument “since they never have, they never will” is just plain ridiculous.
I thought the same! lol
Focus on the Value Proposition!
This post was from theroc66,
A great example of the way this board was before all the personal agendas crept in.
To summarize, a data center with 850 Megawatts of capacity can run around 6,314,256 low powered 1U servers, 1,768,000 mid powered 1U servers or 803,608 high powered servers in a 52U Rack. Assuming the average price of $0.0666/ kWh in the US, an "average" 850MegaW DC has a server-related electric bill of around $478M. Once you run on Perkinamine-based modulators, your bill falls to $165M saving you around $313M a year in one DC! Profitability explodes for all DC operators!
“Can your customers afford to do without Perkinamine?”
Are you quoting a paper footnoted in 2022 and trying to make us believe it is current? Footnote #72
# scam
You would feel the same way if they had exercised options and not taken cash bonuses. Your negative spin would just be worded differently.
Focus on their 2023 bonus probably paid last month.
Clearly, there was a change in wording. That part is a fact. Interpreting the change in the way you have is speculation.
I think you are saying that no foundry is currently capable of producing LW’s custom designed 4x200G PIC and that they have missed the next production runs at all of the foundries that have been producing chips with very high performance over the last year+. Therefore, they are 6 to 9 months behind schedule.
That is speculation!
You used the word “appear(s)” twice in your post. If I read between the lines, it tells me that you do not know anything to be a fact, but you really want to speculate.
Allow me to speculate! Lebby has everyone guessing and that is his plan.
I could be wrong here, but back in the day, an acquiring company would purchase 4.99% of their target company quietly before launching a friendly or a hostile bid. In this case, buying 5.8 million shares quietly would get noticed by the short sellers and would cause some covering. If buyout discussions began after these two buyers have finished, the starting price would be low double digits. I see your point and agree!
May I chime in? Analysts will jump on this stock only after they have enough information to project revenue and profit growth. There are funds that specialize in early stage high potential companies. There is a big difference between “analysts” and “early stage fund managers“. A number of these type funds already own shares in LW. Some have bought, then sold, then bought back. They are dark pool traders. “Analysts” move far more money and they have not gotten what they need quite yet. When they do, we will all read it and see it. It feels like that time is within this quarter.
Supply and demand is the standard answer.
That theory has the highest probability!
I just wonder if the shorts know what we know or have they just shorted a basket of pre revenue companies and are willing to lose big time on one out of fifty. That’s how algorithms are built.
Visibility is increasing and Lightwave Logic is still very much under the radar. That is about to change.
“Can your business afford to NOT add Perkinamine to your custom design?”
Question for the group here: Dr Lebby has been invited to represent Lightwave Logic on a very prestigious panel discussion on heterogeneous integration of photonic integrated circuits at OFC in San Diego in late March. Then, in mid April he is a keynote speaker at PIC International in Brussels.
Is there anyone else that was invited to speak at both conferences? Is this a sign of respect? Is the industry starting to realize which technology is the clear leader. Is visibility important? So many questions!
Can’t wait to hear from those who want to see the stock price go down. Spin, baby spin!
Looks like the short sellers are taking a chance at $4.87
Perhaps someone who follows your bearish posts gave me $2,384.70 today. You gotta thank a guy for doing that!
I might have sold him some puts today. I sold 20 LWLG 09/20/2024 5.00 puts @ $1.20
Anybody know the buyer?
Glad to see the industry spokespeople recognizing the incredible things Lightwave Logic is doing. Great list of industry experts assembled in a panel discussion.
Sometimes it is hard to understand what is really going on when all you do is try to read between the lines! Take a step back and see the big picture!
You have your people and I have my people. And then there are the accomplishments of the Board members and Lebby. Both of us are intensely interested in what happens in the next months and years.
The Super Bowl equivalent in the Electro-Optics technology platform is approaching fast.
Yes! His grammar is excellent.
I am aware of his past losses. I have some past losses too! Don’t we all? I am more interested in what is happening in the photonics industry today. I spend perhaps an hour everyday searching for industry developments mostly because the company is operating in a hard stealth mode.
I have developed relationships with a good number of industry insiders and my research is 180 degrees from Pumpkins. To be fair, there are some industry players who think their products will be more successful, but they are aware of Lightwave Logic’s technology. From all of this, I understand why the equilibrium price for LWLG is around $4.60ish. There is a very high potential for shock value stock price moves. The upside rallies are fast and furious while the retracements take months. The next one will be lasting.
There are some that believe your real name is Mark Lutkowitz. I have no opinion on that, but I will say he has extremely low information on what is happening behind the scenes.
So you are saying you are smarter than everyone else?
Are we to interpret your comments as meaning “THE GP” is a high info non investor?
Low info entities would include: OFC, PIC International, EPIC, Optica, Lewrock?
That was KCCO who attended OFC in March 2023
Ted, you do realize your criteria is completely absurd. I am not sure what % of a portfolio would mean something to you.
Where are those numbers coming from? Broadcom has an 800G for $6900. Lightwave’s pricing is unknown at this time. I don’t have any specifics, but what I have seen, royalties to LW could be only $1,000.
GP, Ted demands proof of your claims. Please provide links so Ted can continue to support your posts.
To be fair, the compensation committee awarded Lebby and Marcelli only 67% of their target bonus the following year.
Xena, you should contact IHub and ask them for full access. I did that and it worked.
Interesting post nrdc92,
Hydrogen is likely the best overall solution but it needs to be produced by chemical reaction on site to avoid the expensive transportation. Hopefully there will be technological advances to bring down the cost. I fear we will look back on the era of lithium batteries and conclude it was worse for the environment than expected.
As for the comparison to polymer electro-optics, the big difference is that hydrogen fuel is much more expensive initially than competitive fuels. Perkinamine optical engines are less expensive to purchase initially than the existing technologies and they are far less expensive to operate and they perform much better than the incumbent modulators.
Both hydrogen and Perkinamine are new technologies and both are trying to replace the existing technology. That is not easy to do and there is plenty of resistance to change. However, the value proposition is so enticing, the market will accept the technology. Lebby’s guidance is they will get 15% of the 800G transceiver market and 25% of the 1600G transceiver market. There are plenty of other markets that represent upside. Personally, I would like to see Dr Lebby stop using the word ubiquitous if his guidance is only 15%. That is not consistent in my book.
15% market share puts the stock price at $300. Sadly, I am starting to realize a buyout will happen long before we reach that stand alone valuation.
The trading action, coupled with the real-time short selling, points to accumulation and not short covering.
Ted, your so called logic always has a bias toward a negative perspective. You have admitted you are agenda driven and therefore I put you on ignore because I can’t trust what you write. Sometimes we agree on things and Blackrock being a passive index fund is one of those times.
Hopefully I will be able to speak to the fund manager.
Ted, I am not interested in your logic. I am going to track this down myself. I have always thought Blackrock’s ownership was through an index fund, but now I am not sure that is true.
I called Blackrock, Inc and finally got to a very nice lady who understands my question and will call me back.
On Nasdaq.com Lightwave Logic is listed on page 60 of the Additions list. I see no indication that this is an index fund.
If possible, I will see if I can speak with the fund manager.
When I clicked on Blackrock Inc. Portfolio Holdings (which is the entity that filed the 13-G/A ownership of Lightwave Logic), it is clearly a managed fund.
There are also Blackrock Index Funds that own Lightwave Logic, but those funds own small amounts 7,025 shares and 11,666 shares.
The only way to resolve this is to call the fund directly.
He acknowledges that there are managed funds that own shares in LW. Is it 10% or thereabouts? One would have to research each name that does not contain the word “index” to find out. Even managed funds can buy index funds. The MZ Group wrote an email to me (which I recently posted) stating that most of the managed funds that own shares in LW have assets under $100 million and they don’t report to Fintel.
Today, Victory Capital Management reported their holdings to be 15,668 shares. They have 2,536 positions valued at $95 billion. They are a managed fund.
Blackrock is an index fund with 5,445 positions valued at $3.477 trillion.
LW represents .000076% of Victory Capital’s portfolio and .001139% of Blackrock’s portfolio.
The current price is the current value. A buy recommendation always has a higher target price and vice versa. Elementary!
This stock is all about the SHOCK VALUE. The bulls are confident and the bears are confident. If the bulls are right, the stock can rise by as much as $300. If the bears are right the stock can go down as much as $3.
This is really a fascinating case study. The bulls have long track records of highly successful investments and are multimillionaires. The bears are unknowns who prefer to remain anonymous and would never attend an annual shareholder meeting or do any real due diligence.
Personally, I admit to being surprised by the use of NDAs in this industry. I also admit to not understanding the foundry R&D machine time and the overall time it takes to develop and test new products. The average Joe thinks technology moves at an incredibly fast pace. What the average Joe doesn’t know is that the products coming to market today started their development cycle five years ago.
It is clear to me that Dr Lebby’s strategy is to keep the competition guessing by maintaining a steal mode. The SHOCK VALUE will be “exciting” when the plan comes together! Dr Lebby has never been more confident in the future of LW.
I really like the risk/reward ratio. In fact, in my 50 years of stock market investing, I have never come across a better opportunity. That said, I am a long term investor with my sights on 2026 to 2030.
I think we all have noticed you have quadrupled the number of your posts in the last few weeks. I don’t claim to know why, but others have their suspicions. The problem with you being a contrarian indicator is that you don’t have any sources of inside information that would ask you to help them cover. Or do you? Hmmm!
X, I am starting to come around to your way of thinking about a buyout. I still hope it does not happen. If it is cheaper to buy the company versus paying royalties and letting every competitor have what you could control, then the path becomes clearer. So what is it that is being negotiated?