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They would make Daxxify a blockbuster drug as RVNC currently is still guiding.
Still found it interesting about the 280mm sales this year and cash flow breakeven next year guidance. They need around 400m sales to break-even. And to get from 280 to 400m needs 40 percent growth. Seems quite a stretch as RHA growth rate probably ~15 percent?
But CD is 345mm TAM, if they can get 15 percent market share next year, then they can do it probably.
Is the gross margin the same between CD and cosmetic ?
What’s up with the almost endless selling at low 5?
Why would anyone so eager to sell when it’s already so low and things are turning around
The thing about shorts is usually they don’t impact the terminal value of a stock. It just makes the stock more volatile both up and down
That’s very interesting. Either your observation is unique to your circle or RVNC is severely undervalued here.
Seems just a matter of time before Daxxify capture significantly larger market share.
>> it will happen in due course.
That's my expectation as well. What kind of market share you think Daxxify will get say in 2-3 years?
>>No. When the share price takes a dive, posters on message boards like to vent, and firing the CEO is a favorite form of venting
I won't blame them. Wasted 200mm on OPUL, now seems to be a complete write off. Flop the go to market strategy is one thing, but he could have set the expectation better afterwards I think.
Anyways, sub 500mm market cap for an approval drug with blockbuster potential is just too good to pass.
The prize will be huge if they manage to fix up their go to market strategy. It might take couple years. But the potential is real.
$RVNC - down 20 percent last two days
Can the market be more negative on this one?
Supposed to be best in class drug.
EOLS which is selling an inferior product is having EV of 810mm with 2024 revenue guidance of 255mm. 3.2x multiple
RVNC minimum revenue guidance is 280mm. EV is 670mm. 2.4x.
I.e. the market is saying EOLS has better prospect than RVNC now. Make no sense to me.
Is it really that hard to roll out a product properly? They seems to execute well with RHA. How can they perform so messy with Daxxify?
Should Foley be fired?
I don’t think WS even look into a name like RVNC, it’s too small for them to care. But I bet there are tons of retail shorts piled on which caused the recent down turn. The guidance which many think is lowball here is considered by an analyst as too high. That triggered the latest sell off. Today is month end and the market crashed abit, hope the rest of the year will be better.
Did he make any bad decisions recently?
so down from 6 to 5 in 2 days. No News. What a field day for shorts.
Go seek, disagree, roll coaster has up and down. This one has been nothing but down.
Just when one thinks it can’t go lower, it dives
Seems we might break 5 today
Will need a double just to get back to 30 days ago price.
Down 44% YTD, Down 85% from 1 year ago. What an ugly picture. Nobody would think we would see this price after FDA approval.
It's a long process, they just started. Only have 2500 accounts now. RHA has 7k, and EOLS has 12k.. A lot of room to go. BUT market has already written it off..
I am not worry about the terminal value, as I think RHA franchise and Daxxify would fetch at least what I paid for.
A more capable company would take over Daxxify, rebrand it and make a killing. RHA has sales for 130mm and growing ~15%.
The market isn't looking.
So another 345mm TAM ready to go
EV is at just 670mm. Market cap is 450mm
That's the best risk reward in the market by far. I bought more today. No more though, it's getting too big.
I know it sucks. Many would just sold and move on.
>> Pretty amazing to think that a company that just guided $280mm annual revenue may be trading at 400mm market cap
EV is $700mm, 2.5x sales.
Inferior companies with much dimmer prospect trade a lot better.
Absurd. Been adding.
>> Angus Russell is a leader too!
The thing about Foley is at least he holds way more shares compared to other management. His stake worth less than 5mm now, a painful drop from ~30mm not long ago. So he has incentive to fix his own craps.
Russell hold less than 40k shares.. I bet many here own more than.
We need a serious of insiders buying to boost some confidence.
When did the meeting take place?
It sucks always to have employees take the blades for managements fault
Another low volume shake down.
Shorts are trying to cover as cheap as possible
Eventually the dumbest shorts will get burnt.
I am buying more today.
>>> So if the analysts were wrong before about RVNC, why would you believe them now?
Just their typical target price changes to match the current share price.
It’s not a bad thing that Wall Street has zero trust.
That’s when stock priced in for nothing but disasters.
So this is the first time I see you mention Foley without giving him a good F.
You think he finally gets what needs to be done now? Or he is still clueless?
Foleys screw up would potentially be creating a multi bagger investment for us here.
If you don’t mind, would you share which area are you operating in? Would definitely love to do some checking on my own.
I would not put too much emphasis on a sale pitch that is coming from a sales that is offering competing products.
I mean what do you expect sales to say? Like even if their sales aren’t that good, they would probably tell you it’s flying off the shelves and you better get some before it’s all gone.
But clearly the stock price tells us the stock market is not believing in Daxxify. Over time, the actual sale figures will do the talking.
EOLS is priced in excellent execution. RVNC is priced in disaster sales and growth even though its product is the best with high customers approval rate and high injectors reorder rate, even gross margin is higher
I bought some in the morning
Got couple downgrades
One said guidance is too high
target price is like 9 and 10. Downside is very limited
But upside is capped until management show the numbers
That’s nice. They outlined Daxxifys benefits in a FB post better than RVNC in the whole Daxxifys website. lol
https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=888347846629997&set=a.504644765000309&type=3
CosmeticMD, you lied and you get caught. You should just admit that you lied and we can all move on. Making up excuses makes you look weak. your posts helped me here and there but kind of annoying to see you dancing around your own obvious lie.
Changes will take, the day to day stock price fluctuations make us want things to happen like yesterday
But realistically, it will take weeks if not months
seems most complain on costs.. no wonder they have to abandon their premium strategy.
and some 2024 created account... a bit fishy.. but it's fine.
The injectors who are willing to learn and deliver the best outcomes to customers will win at the end. Those try to hold on to inferior products because they are afraid of the change will got phased out by the market.
I found it interesting that Daxxify were under unprecedented attack from competitors in the Investors Day webcast. I guess that should be expected when a new comer trying to take over a 6 billions business that has not really been disrupted until recently.
The value here ultimately will be based on how much market share Daxxify can get in a 6 billions and growing market.
Right now, I think the market is saying it won’t be much more than 3 percent market share for a very long time which seems Uber low to me.
So are things improving now? At least Foley finally wake up and cleaning up his own mess?
Spot on. Future is the key. The past mis steps have already caused the EV of this company to shrink from 4 billions to 700mm. I think the punishment is more than reasonable
Options? Which strike and expiration date you are looking at?
The Hint acquisition was a complete failure. Good news is they didn’t spend cash to buy it but they did spend 20 to 30mm annually on it it seems
The pre hiring of sales team before formal approval was a risky move (although they managed to find RHA to keep the sales force busy)
Not sure about the premium pricing, analysts seem to like it at the beginning. But the result was telling I guess. But managements willingness to change strategy when things don’t work out isn’t a bad thing.
at the end of the day, I would choose a company with stronger products over a company with strong marketing strategy.
If it was perfect execution from the beginning, the share price would be much much higher and the risk and reward ratio won’t be as good as it is now.
We will do well here
Look, I would suggest to find a safer investment if you have to ask that kind of question.
The answer is it depends
>> You are the newcomer to this board, not me.
I am. Have not been in any biotech names for years. I like the stock a lot here. At current price, Daxxify does not even need to work that well for us to make money here. $EOLS which has inferior products, lower sales, lower TAM, lower growth projections are selling at higher EV than $RVNC.
I believe if $RNVC were to auction Daxxify tomorrow, they will get way more than the current EV (less than 700mm). This is year 2 after approval. Things are just warming up. Surprise to see so many throw in their towels before the game even started and assume the product has failed.
It was great for me. It went up significantly because of some deals when the world was ending.... I was able to sell it to fund my other buys during the dark time.
That's why I said timing is important.