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Last time, I asked "Who is left to buy?" I also pointed out that today is statistically weak, and perhaps folks were going to front-run that statistical weakness, too. I said that I thought that we would see lower prices, though I'd would not be surprised by spikes of strength thru Friday. Well, there were no spikes of strength yesterday. A lot of damage was done. That said, the high ARMS and the ST Buy from ISEE imply a bounce today and that's a pretty high odds bet. I'm not thinking that we'll make a low, however, until we see some real Bearishness. When the market turns up and then turns right back down again, it's demoralizing. It sets up a better low in time, but near term, there's likely to be some unwinding after whatever bounce we get.
Today, we are looking both ways, but mostly long.
Last time, I said that with some more Bears and seasonal strength for yesterday and Today, we'd likely chop higher and we did. Today is supposed to be up, but I'm having my doubts. EVERYBODY knows that the 1st is up. And everybody has been front-running the monthly strength too. Who is left to buy? Further, tomorrow is statistically weak. Maybe folks are going to front-run statistical weakness, too. The sentiment data is fairly mixed with the options all over the map, the Naz advisors dramatically less Bullish and message board pollees rather Bullish. I think we will see lower prices, though I'd not be surprised by spikes of strength today, tomorrow and Friday. The ST ISEE Buy and the FL/FS Sell implies a battle here.
Last week, I said that Monday might bring a rally attempt, but that we doubted that it would hold due to the lack of Bearishness. Nevertheless, we expected a rally of some sort thanks to a FL/FS Buy and a Buy from ISEE. I figured that we'd get a rally, probably out of some weakness on Monday, and I then predicted a test and a better low on Wednesday followed by a rally for the rest of the week, which is exactly what we saw. This week is more of a difficult call. We did manage to get some more Bears, most notably a ST Buy from NAAIM last week, but we didn't see so many as to have any confidence of a good low. We do know that there's seasonal strength for Tuesday and Wednesday. Our best trend indicator is negative, on the other hand. My read for this week is that we manage to chop higher into Wednesday, in unimpressive fashion and then chop lower on Thursday and Friday.
Last time, I said that thanks to the FL/FS Buy and the ISEE ST Buy, we were going to bounce yesterday or today, and that such was almost a lock. I'll take me some credits for that. I also said that all the bottom-picking implied that the first bounce would not hold and that the lows will be tested. Well, this morning we've got a solid FL/FS Sell and an ISEE ST Sell AND lots of sells from the options. Now, in some markets, we'd say, "Who cares? Get long!". Not this one. We never built up the type of Bearishness that marks a good low, save among the amateurs and they aren't enough of a factor any more to rely upon. I'm thinking that they are going to have to give this market a shake. That's also nearly a lock. The fly in the darned ointment, however, is that it's the end of the month and they like to front-run the statistically strong 1st. I think that today is the best shot for weakness, and after that it's next week, probably after Wednesday. Be nimble if shorting. Ordinarily, you could get short with impunity, but there's too good of a chance for another hokied-up rally. I might buy just below yesterday's lows.
Last time, I said there was likely some weakness coming, but that "The Powers That Be" still wanted the market up, so they'll probably mount a solid rally attempt. They did not mount a "SOLID" rally attempt, as far as I can tell. They may today, and in fact probably will, but I'm still not seeing that much Bearishness. Hulbert actually shows MORE Bullishness, as does TickerSense. The options are improving, but we still have that problem with the $-weighted options all showing general complacency save for the S&P. That's usually a pretty big Bearish tell. The technicals are all negative, too. Now, we do have a FL/FS Buy and a Buy from ISEE and ISEE says that we bounce today. The FL/FS suggests that we have until Wednesday. I think that we rally today, but fade. I'm still thinking that we get a better low on Wednesday.
My Seven Sentinels went to a "CONFIRMED" sell condition yesterday. That's something I'd been expecting for some time now, but it took awhile to play out.
I won't be able to post that daily commentary in a timely manner this week. I'll be away from my computer most of the day for the next several days.
Last week, I said that we'd probably bounce but I feared that strength might be about ready to get swamped with selling and without enough Bears to cover and support. That pretty much looks like what's happening. Now, Monday may look a bit like last. There's likely some weakness, but "The Powers That Be" still want the market up, so they'll probably mount a solid rally attempt on Monday. Will it hold? I'm not at all sure. The big problem is that there's not that much Bearishness nor can we see much hedging going on. NAAIM actually shows LESS confidence in the short side even as the market deteriorated. That's not what the Bulls need. The technicals are all negative. We do have a FL/FS Buy and a Buy from ISEE. That suggests that we're going to get a rally, probably out of some weakness on Monday. My call for the week is down into a ST low on Monday, a bounce into Tuesday, and then down into a better low on Wednesday and up Thursday and Friday.
My Seven Sentinels have been pointing down since the first trading day of May, but the system has stubbornly held to an official buy status. I doubt that will hold much longer, especially if today is downright ugly. I sold my S fund position yesterday for a very modest gain (about 2 cents), and went 100% F fund. This market needs time to stabilize given the winding down of QE2. That means we'll probably see a correction over the coming weeks. Downside riks appears to outweigh upside risk for the intermediate term.
Last time, I said that Sells were working still, and that such was a sign that the market is still weak. Yesterday's failure at trend line resistance is proof of that. We know that TPTB will support if they can, so we can certainly buy the market at support, but we need to keep in mind that the trend and breadth are negative right now. The market is failing at resistance too. Worse, advisors aren't getting Bearish. Sure, amateurs are, but they're not worth exploiting so much any more. No hedging is going on and NAAIM shows LESS confidence in the short side even as the market has deteriorated. This isn't good. TPTB can rally it for a bit, but they really could use some support from shorts covering. The FL/FS 2X Sell is repeated today. The open is so ugly, we could be in for some trouble, but expect a battle first.
In my blog on TSPTalk, I track the entire list of TSP Accounts that are Tracked by Tom. Every Sunday evening I post the results of how the herd is positioned for the beginning of each new week. Last Monday, the herd, which consists of almost 700 accounts, was pretty bulled up with almost 70% of their collective TSP accounts spread out in the C, S, and I funds. That's about as high as I've seen it for almost a year. I think this is significant, since it shows how we are actually positioned and not just whether we are bullish or bearish. The lastest sentiment survey for next week came in neutral. It'll be interesting to see how they're lined up for next Monday. My guess is that they back off their allocations and get a bit more conservative, but we'll see.
Last time, I said that since "The Powers That Be" wanted the market up, a bounce was almost a lock. We got it. This decreased the odds of a "Delta Hedge" swoon. I was inclined to look for a choppy rally yesterday and today and tomorrow I figured we'd be pretty flat. That's about what we saw and about what I think we're in for. Sells are working, still and that's a sign that this market is weak, still. We can certainly buy it, but we need to keep in mind that the trend and breadth are negative right now. We should not be either greedy nor patient with longs. The FL/FS will likely work out from higher resistance.
Last time, I said that we had a clear and obvious down trend, now confirmed. Since it was obvious, we thought that this might result in a bounce. Not yet, but we did mount a rally off support intra-day. I had said that given that "The Powers That Be" want the market up, a bounce is almost a lock. I still feel that way, but I was and I am seriously concerned that this market will get away from them in a "Delta Hedge" swoon on Thursday-Friday. The risk of such goes way down if we can mount a decent rally today. We're at least getting some options support for a bounce. Of course, with Op-Ex, it means less. The problem is that we also now have a FL/FS 2X Sell. We've got some risk in here, that's for sure! I'm inclined to look for a choppy rally today and tomorrow, and flat action on Friday. That's the reasonable, more likely course. Just keep in mind the potential for a very ugly situation if things fall apart.
Last time, I said that nobody was buying puts in much size even as Summation went negative and the daily trend had turned down. We said that the market would probably bounce but I feared that the buyers might be about ready to get swamped with selling and without enough Bears to cover and support. We said that one more down day confirmed the down trend and we got it. We have a down trend. The thing is, none of this is secret. This might result in a bounce. Given that "The Powers That Be" want the market up, a bounce is almost a lock. That said, I'm seriously concerned that this market will get away from them. If we DON'T find some strength this week, we could well go into a "Delta Hedge" swoon. This Thursday-Friday present both motive and opportunity, and there's enough money to swamp the "operators". I'm not going to bet big on this, but we need to be very, very careful here. I think we can buy support but don't hang out for too much.
Last week, I said that we still had a whole lot of Bulls, especially on the Naz. Well, we've got a good deal less, but still alot. AAII is showing plenty of Bears and that's good, but II is showing advisors all Bulled up. So is Hulbert. Despite the ugly trade on Friday, nobody is buying puts in much size. Bear in mind that Summation just went negative and the daily trend has turned down. One down day more confirms. None of this is secret. Even the Cumulative A/D volume has flashed a strong sell. Barring a strong rally, we confirm it. Yet there's little put buying save in the OEX. That means we'll probably bounce but I fear that strength may be about ready to get swamped with selling and without enough Bears to cover and support. Now, we know that "The Powers That Be" want the market up, so they'll probably mount a solid rally attempt on Monday. They've had some time to plan for it. There's also a fairly obvious trend line just below. I suspect that they'll hold strength (in a choppy fashion) into Tuesday. Then, I think we'll chop with at least one down day and one up day for expiration. I'm going to call Thursday higher and Wednesday and Friday lower.
Last time, I said that I was confident that "they" would mount more efforts to support the market, but that something was not right and that we should exert considerable care, eschewing too much leverage or over commitment to either side of the market. Despite being inclined to look for more weakness, I was looking for a bounce Thursday and today. So far, so good. We undid some damage yesterday and today we've got more support for higher prices from the message board polls. Lot's of Bears. NAAIM, however is a real conundrum. The most Bullish advisors got 200% (Maximum) long, while the most Bearish advisors tripled their short exposure to 150%. The median advisor, however, got appreciably more long. From this alone, I think we can expect serious volatility. There's also a good chance that we can resolve lower for some more correction. One thing of note: There is a cluster of trend lines around the 1335 area (see the chart above). If that breaks, it is important.
Last time, I said that thanks to breadth being VERY strong, we thought it woudl be hard to get too much weakness, despite the probable short-term decline due the ISEE Sell. Well, I have to say, the market was MUCH weaker than I would have expected. We got a bounce and I'm confident that they'll mount more efforts to support this market, but something is not right. It is clear that reliable market tendencies aren't going to work well. That means we should exert considerable care--do not over-leverage nor over commit to EITHER side of the market. As ugly as things were yesterday, we now have an ISEE Buy and a buy from AAII. Also, the message board folks are all Beared up. I'm inclined to look for more weakness, but I think we see a bounce today and Friday, first. By the by, we managed to make money on the long side yesterday. That has to be telling..
Last time, I said that we would open higher but the ISEE alone suggested it was a fade. I then proceeded to doom this by saying that I was "pretty sure that" we were going to at least test the lows. (Note to self: When the market is strong, don't publicly predict new lows). Breadth was VERY strong and the cumulative A/D volume is super strong. This is not Bearish. Sure, ISEE strongly suggests a pullback today and we'll probably get it, but it's going to be very hard to get too much weakness in this context. I want to be clear--the breadth we saw yesterday is NOT indicative of a weak market. Everything that we were seeing as a potential corrective phase is not in question. We need to be thinking long more than short.
Last time, I said that while the Daily and Weekly MACD's were negative, the good news was that a cross by the daily MACD was a ST "Best Fade" Buy. We got the predicted strength. Today, we'll open up but the ISEE alone suggests that it's a fade. For my part, I'm pretty sure that we're going to at least test the lows. The large number of neutral traders in the polls as well as the dead even split implies some weakness today. The trend is very mixed and the Bears don't have too much technical support either (breadth is positive), but if you're going to pick a top, this is the type of market to do it in.
Last week, I said that it was going to be hard to be too Bearish without some news event or negative breadth. We got a bit of both, but not really enough to send us to get our Bear suit. The market did, however, follow my road map fairly well, though it displayed a bit more weakness than one might have suspected. This week we've still got a whole lot of Bulls, especially on the Naz. The Amateurs are pretty neutral, according to AAII, but the short-term traders are pretty Bulled up. The surveys have a lot of Bulls in them. The technicals are not all that good. Cumulative breadth improved a bit, but the Daily and Weekly MACD are negative. The good news is that a cross by the daily MACD is a ST "Best Fade" Buy. I'm pretty sure that there's real support out there for the market, but we may have to suffer a bit first. With so many partially long Bulls, I think that too many are picking a bottom too soon. This week, I think that they again try to push the market higher briefly on Monday, only to fail, and for the market to trade down into Tuesday. Then, I think we'll get a bounce. Obviously, how the sentiment comes in as the week progresses will determine how confident we are of a bounce. Still, we know that they will fight valiantly to support this market, so the end of the week ought to be higher.
The Seven Sentinels issued an "unconfirmed" sell signal yesterday. These warning shots haven't been reliable with QE2 in play, but it's winding down now so I'm not sure what to think. The market's not going to wait until June 30th to reposition itself.
Last time, I said that we suspected that they would mount an effort to support the market here yesterday morning, but I also suspected that the effort might fail. It did. They did try hard to support it at the close, however. GLOBEX is currently up fairly dramatically. I don't think this is the low. We still need a lot more Bears. The $-weighted P/C's support a bounce, as does the trend line, but we have a FL/FS 2X Sell so while we should see a bounce, but it's probably a short. The cumulative A/D volume went to a sell last night. If we don't reverse that today, we ought to be very, very careful.
As an FYI, the Seven Sentinels remain on a buy, but they're deteriorating. It looks like today could shore them up a bit if we can continue to recover, but I'm not confident about avoiding a sell signal in the coming days. It's going to be very interesting to see how this market acts with QE2 winding down. Especially now that we are in the historically weakest 6 month period of the stock market.
That's entirely possible with QE2 expiration coming. The Fed may step in at some point however, and address any rising fear. So it's a possiblility, but not a given.
Last time, I said that we were disturbed by the tentative buying showing up in the message board poll because they love to shake loose weak-handed Bulls, regardless, but in the face of a broken up trend, negative money flow and momentum, and too many Bulls elsewhere, it was a very bad sign. The market proved us right. The market is also down further in GLOBEX. I suspect that they will mount an effort to support the market here. I also suspect that it may not hold. We need a lot more Bears. So far, we're seeing a lot of dip buying still. I'm pretty sure that they will have to disabuse these courageous Bulls of their interest in picking a bottom before they take this market back up in a healthy fashion. I'm thinking we see a bounce, but it's probably a short.
Last time, I said that newsletter advisors were very Bulled up on a big jump, and we viewed that as a short-term Sell and as an intermediate-term warning. We got some selling too. The disturbing thing is the tentative buying showing up in the message board poll. They love to shake loose weak-handed Bulls anyway, but this, in the face of a broken up trend, negative money flow and momentum, and too many Bulls elsewhere is a bad sign. Seasonally, this market isn't too strong anyway. Sure, QE2 is still in effect, but it could be ending soon. When will the market discount that? The answer is, AT ANY TIME. The powers-that-be want the market up, it is true, but they could be swamped by participants who see potential problems on the horizon and who want to lock in some profits. I'm open to more weakness today, perhaps after a bounce.
Last time, I said that I still thought that the Bulls had blown their wad, but I allow that they might yet be able to push it higher briefly on Monday. I was dead right, on both the push higher and the pullback. Today, we now have some frothy Bullishness in spots. Newsletter advisors are very Bulled up and that's a big jump too. I view that as a short-term Sell and as an intermediate-term warning. ISEE also took a big jump which is also a ST Sell. I have to think that a lot of Bulls got long for the first and are about to be surprised by some pretty tepid trading. They could bail all at once too, which could spell trouble for this market. I don't want to get too Beared up on that, but a lot of things are suggesting caution in here. We are also solidly in the negative part of the seasonal cycle. I'm open to more weakness today, perhaps after a bounce.
Last week, I said that my thinking was that we get a one-day decline, probably early in the week, and then later in the week we would have the end of month upward bias. During the week, I mistakenly thought that they had blown their wad and that we might get some slop but I had it right the first time. This week, I still think that they blew their wad, but this time, I think that they may yet be able to push it higher briefly on Monday. I had expected more frothy Bullishness, but we don't really have that. As such, it's going to be hard to be too Bearish without much negative breadth or some news event. Still, I think that they open it up on Monday only to fade it into Tuesday. If the get Beared up on that, we could rally right from there, but I suspect that we'll decline on Wednesday and then rally Thursday and Friday.
Last time, I said that the end of month upward bias was keeping the FL/FS Sells from playing as expected. I said that I suspected that yesterday would mark a short-term top for this rally because I thought that they would have spent their wad and that there wasn't anything left for Today, Friday, nor Monday. Well, we'll have to see if I'm right. The sentiment picture certainly supports a bit of selling but we don't have anything that's a lock. We are very overbought, however, and it sure looks like a set up to bag the folks who think that they've got "the key to the lock".
Last time, I said that a 2x Sell and two FL/FS Sells, as well as some options over-optimism all suggested a one-day decline shortly. The problem was and is that we have the end of month upward bias. We had noticed that the "boyz" had been front running the first of the month by more and more days. The bottom line was that if we didn't get some weakness pretty quick here, we figured we'd not likely get it until next week. They didn't give us ANYTHING, yesterday. Only strength. I suspect that today will mark a short-term top for this rally. I think that they will have spent their wad and that there won't be anything left for Thursday, Friday, nor Monday. I don't expect much weakness, however. Don't forget, we have a "Best Fade" Sell signal so we ought to get some selling of some sort soon.
Last time, I said that while the weekly was still negative, there weren't that many Bulls, save in the message board polls and amongst the pros. The latter matters more, as the amateurs aren't really a force any more anyway. We have a 2x Sell and two FL/FS Sells. The Options are showing some over-optimism too. I was and am thinking that we get a one-day decline shortly. The problem here is that pretty soon we have the end of month upward bias. We've noticed that the "boyz" have been front running the first of the month by more and more days. Basically, if we don't get some weakness pretty quick here, we're not likely to get it until next week.
Last week, I said that there was nothing that would preclude a rally, but that there was little in the sentiment to support it, and if something untoward were to happen, there were no natural buyers standing ready to buy (cover shorts). The action on Monday showed just that. Support was breached without pause. It was only late in the day that forces could be marshalled to support the market. I had been looking for a decline to the 1220-1245 area, but at this point, that seems quite unlikely. The trend is up and mostly confirmed. The weekly is still negative. There aren't that many Bulls, save in the message board polls and amongst the pros. The latter is bothering me. NAAIM is flashing a repeat IT Sell. We also have a 2x and FL/FS Sell from the message board folks. The Senticator and Weekly polls are Bearish too. Elsewhere, we're not too far from Buy signals and the options aren't particularly problematic at all. My thinking here is that we get a one-day decline shortly. The odds favor early in the week, later in the week we have the end of money upward bias. I'm going to predict choppy on Monday, down into Tuesday, then up for the rest of the week. We'll be wanting to buy any early weakness.
Last time, I said that the odds said that the rally was not sustainable, as there weren't/aren't enough Bears, and that's probably reasonable, but we said that it was also not beyond the pale to suspect that the powers that be want the market up and want to punish sellers. A lot of them had to have been caught. Chances are, they will punish them some more today. After that, they'll probably take it down. NAAIM comes in shortly and it may give us some more clues. I suspect that this rally is a Bear killer and will eliminate the urge to sell when this thing begins down in earnest. We do have a FL/FS Sell so a little pullback over the next couple sessions is likely, perhaps by Tuesday. If this is a manipulated market, we'll want to watch the ticks closely for clues as to the flow of money. Friday is a holiday so there's an upward bias today. The turn in the trend, surprisingly, has not fully confirmed. Shorts into strength are OK. No big bets are warranted.
Last time, I said that I didn't see any new Bearishness to speak of and the technicals were quite Bearish. Yesterday, they confirmed the Sell. Unambiguously. Breadth, trend, everything except short-term momentum. Sure, we were open to a bounce, as we always are, but the action in Globex is from left field. The odds say that the rally is not sustainable, as there aren't enough Bears. That's probably reasonable, but it's also not beyond the pale to suspect that the powers that be want the market up and want to punish sellers (any trend or breadth following market timer had to be out of the market as of yesterday's close). Certainly, an up market is part of the master inflation control plan so there's a lot of impetus to support this thing. We're not seeing too much to work with in the sentiment for today, but it will be interesting to see how NAAIM comes in tomorrow. Friday, to our surprise, is a holiday. I'm left with the trend, which is still technically down. Shorts into strength are OK. No big bets are warranted as we understand that this rally may turn into a whipsaw.
Last time, I said that if something untoward were to happen, the sentiment was saying that there were no natural buyers standing ready to buy (cover shorts). I said that caution was very much indicated. Well, we got that weakness. Currently, the market is bouncing a bit. I don't see any new Bearishness to speak of. The options are largely neutral. The newsletter writers and bloggers are Bullish too. There's some rising Bearishness on the message boards but not enough to look for a turn. Technically, we've turned the trend down and if we stay down, we will confirm it. I'm still thinking that we could be in for a decline to the 1220-1245 area, though it's early as yet.
Last week, I said that I thought we that we had to be accumulating on weakness this week, but I thought that we had more coming thanks to II's Bearish capitulation, and now NAAIM's Sell. We got some. This week, we've got similar sentiment, though the options are rather neutral. The FL/FS is showing a ton of long Bulls. Investor's Intel and Hulbert's advisors are heavily Bulled up. The daily and weekly MACD's are negative, but daily momentum has turned up. There's certainly nothing that would preclude a rally, but there's little in the sentiment to support it. If something untoward happens, there are, again, no natural buyers standing ready to buy (cover shorts). Certainly, things can improve, but caution is very much indicated. My call again is for weakness into Tuesday and probably into Wednesday, and then a rally for the rest of the week. Monday again may see some buying early. My gut tells me that we could be in for a decline to the 1220-1245 area, though I'm not betting on that heavily yet.
Last time, I said that if the MACD crossed down, we'd turn the Seasonal Cycle negative, but that we'd also get a "Best Fade" Buy. I noted the reasons for caution but I was somewhat heartened to see signs of some rising pessimism. The big concern was the failure of the market to rally smartly off support. I was going to try to stay more Bullish because we saw a little increased Bearishness, but if support were to fail and we confirmed a change in trend, I was open to a shot down to the lows. Well, here we are. I'm not sure that we're seeing any more pessimism. We have broken the trend, but we have not confirmed this. We do have a "Best Fade" Buy. That should play out over the next week. The thing is, we have a 2X Sell and a repeat signal for today. My feeling here is that we'll bounce but I'm not that hopeful for it to be much nor last long. We'd probably do better to just fall hard today, and generate a bunch of pessimism, and THEN rally. Caution is indicated, to be sure. I think 1220 is definitely in play. We can buy support levels, still, but we can also pick off shorts at resistance.
Last time, I said that NAAIM was flashing a repeat Sell and it would confirm with a bit more weakness. So far, we have not yet confirmed a Sell, but the indicators are quite close. For now, the trend is still up and but breadth turned down (has not confirmed). If the MACD crosses down, we'll turn the Seasonal Cycle negative, but of course we'll also get a "Best Fade" Buy. There is plenty of reason for caution but at least we're seeing signs of some rising pessimism. I'm a bit worried about the failure of the market to rally smartly off support yesterday, but the early strength in GLOBEX mitigates against this. I'm going to try to stay more Bullish in here because we are seeing some signs of increased Bearishness, but if support fails and we confirm a change in trend, we could be in for a shot down to the lows.
Last time, I said that I thought that we had more weakness coming and we're getting it. Chances are, this is a short-term decline, but it is important to note that NAAIM is flashing a repeat Sell and will confirm with not too much further weakness. Granted, the trend is up and breadth is still positive, but if this changes, we should probably respect it. Hulbert notes that there was a significant Bullish shift among Nasdaq newsletter writers which further suggests caution. On the other hand, folks are paying up for OEX puts which might mitigate against too much weakness. Support levels keep generating bounces so we can continue to play the long side.
I jumped back in last Thursday and like you I'm thinking about getting much more defensive before the end of April. There's no telling how the big money is going to position itself as we get closer to the end of QE2, nor how the market will react to any new stimulus. Big unknowns that carry more risk than I'd like to deal with. And then there's oil, which is dropping of late, but that could change.
Last week, I said that despite the first week in April's typical strength and the good liquidity, TSP was on a Sell and NAAIM was also flashing a ST Sell so I was fairly confident that we were going to get a down draft one day. I suspected that it would be Tuesday but instead it came on Friday. Still that's pretty good. I did think we that we had to be accumulating on weakness and I still think that we do, but I think we have more coming. II showed a ton of capitulation and optimism and we broke up the up trend enough to suggests that we could sell down a bit more. Our Senticator also is flashing a Sell. My thinking is that they take them down into Tuesday and then rally them for the rest of the week, though Monday may see some buying early. That will be my call for the week too.