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Unrealized losses and short term swings cause no harm over long term
Fidelity’s advanced charting technical analysis today shows $1.36 as support on all time frames (10, 20, 40, 100, 250 & 500 days). Interesting that it took awhile to drop through support intraday and then rallied end of day to close above it. I’ve been slowly adding recently. May go lower… hope it works out for you.
dogn
PD, thanks for these links!
dogn
Pharmacydude,
Thank you for sharing this post. I noticed that the second paragraph (in bold below) comes verbatim from the authors of the paper in question, from the section highlighting limitations to the analysis. Your contact added helpful additional interpretation. For context, and as it includes additional noted limitations, sharing here full paragraph for others (p. 5-6 of https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/epdf/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.059410):
North,
Lovely reminiscences... thanks for sharing them and sorry for the loss of your close friend.
dogn
Kiwi, thanks. That’s what I guessed - Japanese population only. Thanks for confirming.
dogn
Rdhitchcock, thanks for posting this nice find.
dogn
Kiwi, thanks for this direct link to the JELIS curves… with no MO placebo. Don’t know how anyone can twist the facts from this study that EPA significantly reduces coronary events. No reason to doubt pending confirmation forthcoming from RESPECT-EPA and MITIGATE. Do you know if RESPECT-EPA population extends beyond Japan?
dogn
Thanks, Capt.
Capt., curious as to whether you have attributed the clear graph discontinuity of ~10K (~25%) scripts increase in early April 2019 to any specific event(s)? Looking back at press releases, I see this was just after 3/18 ACC 68th annual scientific session (3/18/19 PR) where Bhatt presented late breaker on 30% Reduction in Total Cardiovascular Events Including Recurrent Events with IPE in REDUCE-IT. And 3/28/19, Amarin submitted sNDA to FDA for new indication based on REDUCE-It (although topline results leading to initial surge in share price were released much earlier, 9/24/2018). Could sure use another scripts jump like that… was just more closely pondering that oddity of the graph.
Thanks,
dogn
Lizzy, I have no doubt Denner is well connected. My post however was pointing out a connection uncovered, FWIW, between Lars Ekman and ALKS CEO Richard Pops, and speculate possible relevance of Sarissa/Denner - ALKS interactions chronicled at length at https://sec.report/Document/0001564590-22-022599/ (~p.22+, under “Background to the Solicitation.” While written from ALKS perspective, it is the only insight available into behind the scenes process. I searched for it after reading Denner’s condemnation in yesterday’s PR https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220706005431/en/Sarissa-Capital-Comments-on-Alkermes-Annual-Meeting
Connection of Alkermes CEO Richard Pops to former AMRN COB Lars Ekman:
After finding interesting detailed chronology of Sarissa Capital interactions with Alkermes (see post https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169331555), was looking more into ALKS CEO Richard Pops. Reading 2019 feature article at https://www.lifescienceleader.com/doc/alkermes-and-richard-pops-the-evolution-of-a-company-and-its-leader-0001 noticed this:
Jasbg, try just going to
https://investor.alkermes.com/sec-filings
The last 2 links are the 06/06/22 DEFC14A
Definitive proxy statement in connection with contested solicitations and today’s 13D filing
Sarissa Capital activism with Alkermes
Saw this press release today by Sarissa Capital "Sarissa Capital Comments on Alkermes Annual Meeting" https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220706005431/en/Sarissa-Capital-Comments-on-Alkermes-Annual-Meeting
Alkermes (ALKS) holds their annual shareholder meeting tomorrow July 7 in Dublin.
Recall also Sarissa Capital's May 27 press release "Sarissa Condemns Poor Corporate Governance at Alkermes"
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220527005250/en/Sarissa-Condemns-Poor-Corporate-Governance-at-Alkermes
Looked into this a bit more and found Alkermes' detailed chronology of their interactions with Alex Denner (Sarissa Capital) since Feb. 2020 that he appears to take issue with in latest PR in Alkermes definitive proxy statement under "Background to Solicitation":
https://investor.alkermes.com/node/19776/html#BACKGROUND_SOLICITATION
Interesting reading. Denner owns 8.55% of ALKS according to amended 13D filed today with above PR:
https://investor.alkermes.com/node/19871/html
NS, thanks for sharing. Nice find!
dogn
Laurent, thanks for your excellent, informative post.
Thanks for all your noble efforts, Marjac & North.
100 cases denied, far fewer granted. Tough odds to fight, but victorious in that you never ceased in fighting for justice. A shame it fell upon closed-minded judges.
dogn
Favorable results just published for 12 week study of Mochida’s once-daily MND-2119 EPA-E formulation, already licensed by Amarin. Promising for fixed dose combo pill.
“Efficacy and safety of self-emulsifying formulation of highly purified eicosapentaenoic acid ethyl ester (MND-2119) versus highly purified eicosapentaenoic acid ethyl ester in patients with hypertriglyceridemia: Results from a 12-week randomized, double-blind, active-controlled, phase 3 study”
https://www.lipidjournal.com/article/S1933-2874(22)00181-7/fulltext
https://prosancons.com/medicine/pros-and-cons-of-vitamin-b12/
Evaluation of red flags minimizes missing serious diseases in primary care
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6060920/
https://forum.nameberry.com/t/pros-and-cons-of-elizabeth/408700
https://angelsname.com/girl/lizzy/meaning-origin-numerology-personality-traits-horoscope-detailed-information-about-name-lizzy
https://www.cuteness.com/article/pros-cons-having-pet-cat
dogn
Weekend study resources on activist investors. In general these curated resources favor activist investor campaigns and encourage board of directors & management to be collaborative and welcome the activist input. Hoping fruitful discussions are underway.
Thanks also to Marjac & North and hoping for best with SCOTUS!
dogn
First resource from McKinsey is most informative “McKinsey Special Collection
Activist investors
Selected articles from the Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice”. The next four from Harvard are also especially helpful and from reliable source. Other miscellaneous, interesting reads follow.
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%20special%20collection/final%20pdfs/mckinsey-special-collections_activistinvestors.pdf
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2021/06/11/the-directors-guide-to-shareholder-activism/
Same material in easier to read pdf format: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/governance-insights-center/publications/assets/pwc-the-directors-guide-to-shareholder-activism.pdf
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/19/investor-engagement-and-activist-shareholder-strategies/
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/10/15/does-shareholder-activism-split-the-pie-or-grow-the-pie/
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/08/01/2020-activist-investor-report/
https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1223&context=wharton_research_scholars
https://media.bain.com/Images/BAIN_BRIEF_Agitators_and_reformers.pdf
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/shareholder-activism-business-response-explainer/
https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/the-impact-of-activist-investors-what-investors-need-to-know
https://landing.directorpoint.com/general-board-topics/shareholder-activism-board-members-need-know/
https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2016/03/14/the-efficacy-of-activist-directors/
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/activist-investors.asp
https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/activist-investing/
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-shareholder-activist-5197640
https://www.barrons.com/articles/investing-lessons-from-the-activist-playbook-51553076000
Jasbg,
I’m sorry - you substantially misread my email if you interpreted it as my defending Ekman. I do not like that he sold out Sofinnova’s position and only sought (unsuccessfully) to gain clarification from Lizzy as to why Denner’s taking a position in AMRN would lead him “to bail.”
I’m just an underwater retail shareholder like you and have posted my long position and intent to hold until realizing a reasonable gain. Geesh.
dogn
Lizzy, my speculation is an attempt to understand.
[misplaced response to your post #380985 that "There's a lot of speculation going on in your post. Less is better."]
In May, seeing Whalewisdom report an <$4 average cost for Sarissa (which you guessed was likely a mistake) and seeing the 13D statement that they reserve the right to hedge made me wonder why that statement is there, and whether and how they might do that. I'm not trying to launch a new SEC investigation into the dark secrets of Wall Street, of which I'm sure there are many that are hidden from naive retail investors like myself.
The main point of today's post however was hoping you would clarify the burning question of why "Denner was the reason for [Ekman/Sofinnova] bailing."
I really still don't understand why Sofinnova Investments where Lars Ekman, chairman of the board of Amarin is an executive partner (https://www.sofinnova.com/team/lars-ekman-md-phd/) sold out 100%... bad optics as COB, possible insider trading.
Thus hoping you would clarify why you believe Denner was the reason for him doing so. It's OK to openly speculate on a discussion board. Denner's investment is a sign Amarin is undervalued, you'll ride his coattails anytime. I also hope and believe Denner's involvement will help lead to a better valuation. So why did Ekman bail of "things are looking up"?
I was really speculating on what you meant by "Ekman knew his MO before we did." Assume you mean modus operandi and not mineral oil; hoping you would elaborate. Thanks in advance.
-dogn
HLS NDR TMR
https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2022-06-15/hls-therapeutics-to-participate-in-virtual-non-deal-roadshow-on-june-22-2022
Perhaps some new info in their "latest investor presentation" on Vascepa sales in Canada.
This PR led me to inquire what the heck is a "non-deal" roadshow (NDR)... probably means no free voodoo donuts... that would be a dealbreaker for me.
https://grayling.com/news-and-views/investor-innovation-the-rise-of-the-virtual-non-deal-roadshow
Thanks for this correction, Lizzy. While some have posted Ekman's sale was due to advance knowledge of recent big quarterly earnings miss, timing you note can be confirmed.
From https://fintel.io/so/us/amrn/sofinnova-ventures, "2022-02-14 - Sofinnova Investments, Inc. has filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 0 shares of Amarin Corporation plc (ADR) (US:AMRN) with total holdings valued at $0 USD as of 2021-12-31. Sofinnova Investments, Inc. had filed a previous 13F-HR on 2021-11-15 disclosing 1,069,968 shares of Amarin Corporation plc (ADR) at a value of $5,457,000 USD. This represents a change in shares of -100.00 percent and a change in value of -100.00 percent during the quarter."
So Soffinova's stake in Amarin was sold between 2021-11-15 and 2021-12-31 as you note, after Sarissa's first 8.5M share position acquired 3rd quarter 2021 first became public on their 13F-HR dated 2021-11-15: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577524/0001567619-21-020494-index.htm
But why do you believe Denner buying would cause Ekman to bail? What about Denner's MO did he know before we did? Is it perhaps well known that activists might drive down prices before gaining representation/control? We sell if we think share price will go down, hold if we think share price will go up. Why did Ekman think SP was about to go down? Perhaps they just had such a comfortable gain in AMRN (having sold much of their position already) that it was just about managing risk. IDK.
I've always wondered about the full meaning of the 3rd part of the 13D statement (as I posted #377215 May 10 on Amendment Requirements for 13D Filers, but which generated little discussion):
jasbg, I had looked into Bridgewater HQ some time ago when learning more about Amarin. You may or may not know AMRN leases just all or most of 3rd floor of 200,000 sq. ft. multi-tenant building. You can't judge much about Amarin from parking lot.
Just searching by address and then "Grande Commons" (building name) leads to this and other info such as:
https://www.commercialsearch.com/commercial-property/us/nj/bridgewater/one-grande-commons/
https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/440-US-Highway-22-Bridgewater-NJ/7347231/
Built 1990, Renovated 2020. AMRN may in fact have secured a favorable lease arrangement prior to the renovation when building occupancy was low:
https://www.roi-nj.com/2021/11/12/real_estate/grande-commons-in-bridgewater-sold-by-cbre/
Last link notes "American Equity Partners embarked on an ambitious value-add program, which included renovating the common areas and reimaging the amenity package. This program, along with an aggressive deal making mentality, spurred leasing and grew occupancy from 25% to 82% in a very short period of time.
The property’s tenant base is extremely diverse, from industries such as pharmaceuticals, engineering, legal services and financial services. The tenant roster includes major occupiers such as Molex, Renesas Electronics America and the U.S. office for Amarin Pharma, among others.
Dunne said: “American Equity Partners acquired the asset four years ago and successfully completed a capital improvement program which repositioned the asset to meet today’s corporate occupier demands. This allowed American Equity Partners to secure over 115,000 square feet of new leases at the property since their acquisition.”
Jroon, yes a thoughtful summary of where we're at.
The Cowen podcast was instrumental in helping me consider that the directors are often not as financially motivated as a large shareholder towards working for the shareholders. While usually good people, he states, they often lack resources or time to do their own research and hence often fall in line with what management recommends and fail to fully consider other strategic options (Denner's widget factory example). The "agent vs owner" issue.
Reflecting further on an earlier post, I think regarding the BIIV situation 5 years back, it's reasonable to believe that as a large shareholder Denner would also have sought to secure the highest possible reasonable valuation even if it required waiting a bit longer (in BIIV case there were some restrictions that prevented some bidders from participating in a sale at the time). That ~50% higher valuation based on earlier company projections must have been viewed as largely unrealistic.
Further thoughts on above linked insider trading claims
"This decision finds that the plaintiff has stated a reasonably conceivable claim that Denner breached his duty of loyalty by causing Sarissa to purchase shares of Company common stock after Denner learned material, non-public information about Sanofi’s interest in acquiring the Company."
While the opinion lays out why defendants' motion to dismiss was denied, allowing the plaintiff has stated a "reasonably conceivable claim," studying the first part of this 48 page opinion shows that the case revolves around what constitutes "material, non-public information" that an insider has an obligation to disclose. "The defendants argue boldly that Sanofi’s initial expression of interest was not material because it was a “casual inquir[y]” and not “sufficiently substantive or advanced to constitute material information."
From my non-lawyer lay view, I can see the law is quite gray, as the opinion cites multiple different prior cases (Brophy, Bershad, Basic, Alessi...) applied to determine applicable standards.
Weighing this against frustration of many posters citing multiple cases of mismanagement, against Ekman's apparent insider trading in selling the Soffinova before quarterly report cratered stock, and listening to the Cowen podcast posted by rdhitchcock (which is helpful to restoring my view that Denner is a fair, reasonable and engaged investor aligned to our best interests), I've reconsidered my proxy vote position. Giving Denner the benefit of the doubt and supporting a neutral view towards the BOD and management while efforts continue to promote positive change, updated all proposal vote to "abstain" (20K shares as of proxy record date).
dogn
jasbg, lease info can be found in the 10-K annual reports at https://investor.amarincorp.com/financial-information/annual-reports-new
pdf version: https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/cd495f3c-3f69-4359-a316-b7d03a666ef2 (search within for "lease")
In my opinion, the Bridgewater lease is not a significant liability in the overall big picture after looking at numbers below. About $1.2M/year. With 396.7M shares outstanding, works out to $0.003 (or 0.3 cents) per share annually. The total lease liability end of 2021 of 10.3M works out to 2.6 cents per share.
Specifically, p. 78 "Properties" for brief summary, "Effective February 5, 2019, we entered into a lease agreement for approximately 67,747 square feet of office space in Bridgewater, New Jersey. The lease commenced on August 15, 2019 for an 11-year period, with two five-year renewal options."
Financial Statements section page F-32 subsection (16) Leases gives further lease info:
"Subject to the terms of the Lease, Amarin will have a one-time option to terminate the agreement effective on the first day of the 97th month after the Commencement Date upon advance written notice and a termination payment specified in the Lease. Under the Lease, the Company paid monthly rent of approximately $0.1 million for the first year following the Commencement Date, and such rent increases by a nominal percentage every year following the first anniversary of the Commencement Date. In addition, Amarin receives certain abatements subject to the limitations in the Lease. The operating lease liability is $10.3 million and $10.6 million and the operating lease right-of use asset is $7.7 million and $8.1 million, as of December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2020, respectively.
The lease expense for the years ended December 31, 2021, December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2019 is approximately $2.2 million, $1.6 million and $1.5 million, respectively.
The table below depicts a maturity analysis of the Company’s undiscounted payments for its operating lease liabilities and their reconciliation with the carrying amount of lease liability presented in the statement of financial position as of December 31, 2021:
Undiscounted lease payments ($000s)
2022 1,774
2023 1,808
2024 1,842
2025 1,876
2026 1,910
2027 and thereafter 7,202
Total undiscounted payments $ 16,412
Discount Adjustments $ (6,062 )
Current operating lease liability $1,774
Long-term operating lease liability $ 8,576
The Company entered into a lease agreement for new office space in Zug, Switzerland. The lease commenced on February 1, 2022 for a five year period.
Under the lease, the Company will pay rent of approximately $0.2 million per year.
Part IV Exhibit 10.45 has link to full Bridgewater lease agreement:
Lease Agreement, dated February 5, 2019, by and between 440 Route 22 LLC and Amarin Pharma, Inc.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000897448/000156459019004655/amrn-ex1069_187.htm
Robert, I would agree there is little downside risk with Denner’s activism. At the current share price I’m not concerned about downside risk. My interest is contemplating what way forward will best maximize shareholder value and upside potential over the longer haul. These are interesting times for Amarin.
dogn
It was not my intent to squelch discussion, only to reset a malfunctioning security alarm. I do not believe my posts merit red flags. I otherwise appreciate Lizzy and her many board contributions. Peace, ya'll. Let's keep this discussion board civil and open-minded, please.
dogn
RCJ, thank you for this thoughtful question
Lizzy, not issuing any verdicts. Note included disclaimer footnote in post from Judge that these allegations may be proven untrue. But I would not call “old news” 2 Delaware court opinions that came out May 26 and June 2, a legal review posted June 15, both seen posted today on StockTwits as I too closely follow whatever news seems relevant to being made whole in my poor investment. I knew it may be unpopular to post but felt it is important info to share with all AMRN investors.
No other agenda, Sstyles, Jasbg, et al. Just trying to keep an open mind and help us all digest what is happening. Posted additional info as I dug deeper only because it appears relevant or interesting to developing further understanding. Would not say that I am suspicious, just cautious and careful, trying to maintain a healthy skepticism.
A court recently posted 2 ~125 and ~50 page detailed opinions on the case because, although it happened in 2017, it’s complicated and not easily understood, nor is it or was it readily dismissed. This is what we may be dealing with, study or ignore as you choose, but be informed before you jump on a bandwagon.
Amarin’s updated proxy may very well be result of my post the other day pointing out that an abstention on proposal 7 had same effect as a no vote… because I read it carefully, that’s what it said and I pointed it out here.
I truly hope Denner can learn from his trials and manage his involvement with Amarin ethically, in cooperation with management, and help steer us all to a successful outcome.
Of interest from June 2 Delaware opinion in Goldstein vs Denner
https://cases.justia.com/delaware/court-of-chancery/2022-c-a-no-2020-1061-jtl-0.pdf?ts=1654196477
From last 2 pages...
Denner could be subject to damages of not just his $49.7M profit from sale of 1.01M shares of Bioverativ (BIVV) purchased at avg. of $55.79/share when BIVV BOD approved sale to Sannofi at $105 (88.2% gain) but also for potential lost additional gain of 50.6% to estimated true value of $158.17 (additional $53.7M in damages for $103.4M total). OR, punitive insider trading damages could be calculated on higher sale price at $103.4M for total damages of $103.4M for insider trading + $53.7 for lost valuation = $157.1M.
As someone quipped on ST, Denner needs to sell AMRN asap to pay his BIIV fine (though case is still pending).
Consider example with Amarin prices, using Denner avg. cost of $4.46.
Would you be happier with a quick sale at 1.882x$4.46=$8.39 per share or one with additional gain to true value of 1.506x$8.39=$12.64?
Or using today's closing prices:
1.882x$1.83 gets you ~$3.44 whereas added 1.506x gets you ~$5.18
Obviously Denner won't sell underwater, but who knows if he's been engaging in undisclosed hedging. What may be best for quick profit of Sarissa may not be best for long-suffering shareholders, particularly those with higher cost basis that started positions before Dusaster.
If he was happy to secure an 88% gain through insider trading, we can disavow ourselves of dreams his activism will lead to 2X to 3X gains for his (or our) positions.
Be careful what you wish for.
North, enjoy your Great Lakes cruise. Appreciate your opinions on this after your vacation.
I have noticed in the Arnold & Porter article when clicking on the "..." footnote links this one at the end of the Allegations paragraph,
CBB, hate and blame would be foreign to a true Zen master, and I doubt God thinks lung cancer is funny. I suspect the truth is somewhere between "good friends" and "hated each other" if a second-hand years-later perception. Rather, hold on to your own memories of what made them favorite instructors. Thanks for sharing.
Well with my wife’s allergy to cats, I just barely tolerate them, just as I can just barely tolerate your oft whacky and indecipherable yet occasionally entertaining posts.
dogn is doug with the u rotated +pi ‘round the g and an homage to Japanese zen master Dogen, so no dogs to chase you away.
I don’t view playing nice and acting ethically and in a law-abiding manner to be in the same category.
Some ST posts worthy of consideration
Long 16,650 shares @$5.03, as frustrated by 65% paper loss as everyone, have been hopeful Denner/Sarissa can help restore share price.
Believe these interesting posts on ST merit discussion, at least all AMRN investors should be aware of them. Some healthy caution regarding how Sarissa operates may be warranted, as these made me concerned whether their interests are 100% aligned with those of shareholders seeking to maximize value of the Vascepa/Vazkepa asset over the long term.
Basically as I read it, plaintiff in cited Delaware case alleges Denner helped negotiate and profited from a sale of Bioverativ at ~2/3 of what company's projections estimated value to be ($150), while not disclosing to board relevant timing of his $90M share purchase or prior conversations with bidders.
Positives at least are that with these insider trading allegations revealed, Denner will proceed more carefully and ethically.
Also, I was unaware of the following SEC provision that may provide insight as to why Sarissa has not purchased more shares at these low prices:
The court noted that Mr. Denner’s change of heart appears to have been timed so that a sale transaction would not trigger the six-month short swing profit recapture rules under Section 16 of the Securities Exchange Act for the shares Mr. Denner and Sarissa purchased after Sanofi’s initial approach.
Amarin 2022 Def 14A Proxy Statement - direct SEC filing link
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/897448/000119312522158650/d651622ddef14a.htm