I was going to procrastinate, but decided to put it off.
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Just thinking out loud, maybe a buyout offer coming?
I still believe it could see that. When I made that prediction it did hit a low of .35 cents on the 17 April 2013. Thats pretty close in my books.
The markets are weak May - Oct.
If we get a period of no news significant new for a long time in the slow period, we could see the low 30's.
How far off is production? Still lots of time for this to bounce all over the place.
You think its up from here now and never going down? I would bet otherwise.
About 48% and one about 80%, maybe fert stocks are back in fashion again? I like to track others to see a trend.
AAA is on the same uptrend. AAA is up more than 50%. On April 19 AAA closed at .37 cents.
Other junior potash stocks I follow are up as well.
How long to production? Don't forget we are in the silly season, when stocks, especially junior stocks get beat up. Today all the juniors I follow are up, yet the main indexes are down.
Anyways its a win win for me if it keeps going up. I just think when we get a lack of news we could see the low 30's.
Good luck to all.
Agreed, in my opinion I still think we will see the low 30's. I base that on periods of the lack of major news. The summer is slow in the mining sector, that will contribute to the low I predict as well.
I still hope we see a buy out offer.
Break out to where?
Looks like it getting closer to my prediction.
I am not a fan of averaging down, its a bad practice IMO.
I have a position and I am not adding too it.
If this stock was headed towards 2 cents, the shorts would be all over this. The fact that the short position is almost nothing is a good sign.
About the share price, I still think we see low 30's before we move up again.
There is only 5300 shares short, most were covered Jan - March 2013.
This is a bad time of the year for penny stocks. Unless we have major news like a buy out, in my opinion, I don't see any real upside for months or longer.
Holding....and hoping for a buyout offer.
I would never put all my eggs in one basket. Anything can go wrong with any penny stock. I have seen so many stocks with great potential fail and fall back to just couple pennies.
Not saying thats going to happen here. I don't have a crystal ball.
But Sell in May and go away could hit this stock hard, as well as all the other penny mining stocks. I figured low 30's in earlier posts. Some people challenged that post.
I am looking for a buyout, as I don't want to WAIT for production, too far out for me.
Just my opinion.
Don't discount the sell in May and go away effect. Thats a bad time for a lot of junior penny stocks.
No I am not selling out, I am just stating that we are coming onto the slow period for mining and junior stocks. Just be prepared you **may** see lower prices.
Happens every year, usually in May through to Sept.
Good idea!!
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We are getting close to sell in May and go away. I still believe this stock could hit the low 30's over the slow period for mining stocks and the lack of major news.
We will see.
The smart money got out in the 2 dollar range after buying it for 30-40 cents. Will grow old waiting for production, I am betting there will be delays.
We need a buyout, thats what I am banking on. If we go to production that will suck.
New short position:
2013-02-15 94,800 -553,800
Most of them covered.
I believe my opinion is accurate. Not just this stock but others in the same boat. Not to mention the market sucks big time. Want to bet we see the 30's if no buyout is announced in the next 6 months?
What do you think the stock price will be with no buyout offer in 6 months? Especially in this crappy market.
If there is no major news like a buyout, and if we wait for production, I see the share price going a lot lower. As I said before, we could see the 30 cent range. Maybe even lower.
We need a buyout. Production is too long out.
New numbers should be out tomorrow or the following day. They come out 2 times a month. The last day and the 15th. Takes a few days for it to show up.
If this drags on for months with no major news, I predict 30 cents or lower as we are coming into the weak months, the spring/summer.
Then the shorts can cover their positions.
Me too, I prefer a buyout.
Thats an excellent depiction of what happens to penny stocks, the ones that make the money are the ones that sell at the top of the spec cycle....and the ones that hold for a buyout. But 98% of the penny stocks crash.
Looks to me that some are betting the stock goes down, short position up:
(2013-01-31) 648,600
(2013-01-15) 371,800
Short position increased from the end of Dec 2012, this number is as of Jan 15 2013. New numbers out any day.
(2013-01-15) 371,800
(2012-12-31) 96,000
Question why did it increase, what do the shorts know?
Anyone wondering about the poor share price months ago, this didn't help:
http://www.stockchase.com/company/find
Type in AAA
The last entry was this one:
2012-10-09 HOLD
Company is fine but generally the potash market has not responded as well as the other fertilizer markets. There are also geopolitical risks. Potash is probably due for a bit of a bounce but will probably be short lived because of less supplier discipline than has been in the past.
Before you go and say they don't know what they are talking about, they are experts in the industry, I used them in the past, with good results, some are accurate some are not. That site is actually a good one for seeing what experts are saying on stocks.
Check out related companies to see how they are doing in this poor market:
http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:AAA
Don't flame the messenger.
I don't think we will see a large pop in the price, at least a pop to make it stay up. The wind is out of the sails on Potash stocks. One I was following 2-3 years ago ran from around 2.50 to 12.00 bucks on the FS. But potash back then were on fire.
I think we will see maybe 10-20 cents, just guessing. Market still sucks.
We need to get a buyout offer, IMO that will send it sky high.
Even if that article was bullish on potash, still has no bearing on AAA. If we get a buy out offer, doesn't matter about the fluctuations of potash. We are still a penny stock, not a producer.
How to stop saying "UM"
To show you how bad the market is right now, see this from another company, Potash, and less shares out:
XXXXX Corp. has received a positive feasibility study from AMEC Americas Ltd. on the company's 100-per-cent-owned XXXXXXX property in Southern Saskatchewan. The study confirms that the asset is of sufficient size and grade to support primary and secondary potash solution mining for more than 40 years at an ultimate production rate of 2.8 million tonnes per year. The study included detailed capital expenditure and operating expenditure estimates with a production start-up in 2016.
The study reports that the resulting after-tax project net present value is $2.44-billion, with an internal rate of return of 18.6 per cent, assuming a nominal discount rate of 10 per cent. On a before-tax basis, the project yields an NPV of $3.6-billion and an IRR of 21 per cent.
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The stock trading near AAA's price is up 3 cents on the news. So AAA is going to have BIG news like a buyout, as I do not believe the feasibility study will do anything more than pop the stock for a day or two.
He should stick to investments, not science. Fert stocks seem to have a bright future, but his other nonsense about global warning is totally ridiculous.
I think it's a combination of a lot of things. A high risk stock in a high risk country trading in a poor market. The junior mining stock markets stink.
I don't think the BFS even if it blows the doors off with good results, will move the stock much. We need a buyout.
How is he going to do something about the stock price? The market stinks, it would have to be earth shattering news to pop this thing. And I don't see that until we get a buyout offer. I don't want this to go to production. I would prefer a buyout.