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It is unlikely to see $2 anytime soon. Way too much uncertainty and issues that need to be dealt with. Financing is of course the major one. The market won't bid this up when it is known by all they need to raise a lot of money.
The issue is that AMRN didn't even try for more.
We know from a CC that they never pursued a label expansion. Couple that with JL's comments about meeting an AMRN lawyer who had no clue about any sort of "leverage" they had on the FDA. The conclusion I think is that AMRN never want after anything significant. And that is shocking and infuriating.
Well, Fishy predicated a run to $10 a share before interim REDUCE-IT.
Whatever makes people sleep at night, I guess.
Exactly. It isn't the judge's job to do the plaintiff's job. If AMRN didn't like it they shouldn't have agreed to it. Instead they are relying on the judge throwing it out?! That isn't the judge's job. AMRN agreed to this, so that is that. A strategy of relying on the judge to bail them out and reject something they agreed to is pretty idiotic.
Ok, but we have also added a new executive (Granowitz) and on the call they alluded to adding more executives. All of whom are gonna wanna get theirs. So only 20m in options and RSUs over the next two years is very very light, IMO. And if REDUCE-IT does succeed, I can't imagine the stock awards that will be given out. It will be MILLIONS of shares. They definitely need $250m more than they have now if they want to make it all the way to an actual REDUCE-IT approval and actually start generating revenue from that approval. The actual approval is a solid 3 years away from now.
It isn't just the dilution. Management is adding literally millions of shares via options and stock awards each year.
Also need to take into account that by that time the diluted share count will probably be approaching 500m. So at $2 a share, and taking into account the debt, that would still be around a $1.2b valuation.
haha. That one made me laugh. Good one.
I was referring to the upcoming dilution.
Patience is not a virtue when the company is flat broke and dwindling in cash. Scripts needed to increase, and increase fast. And they haven't. And 1A, along with Kowa, have provided nothing to the growth trajectory. What "patience" is gonna get you is a huge dilution under $2 a share.
I apologize for the misrepresentation. It was so long ago I was going off of memory. I thought you had said you didn't think AMRN would agree to a settlement without given a label expansion because nothing else would be worth dropping the case. I would have to go back and look at old posts but it isn't worth the effort.
We agree, AMRN got nothing. I am not that surprised because that is what AMRN does, they disappoint. But it always sucks to see it actually happen even if you know it's coming.
Best lawyers in the land we have been told. Lawyers were so good we were told to expect something very good in this settlement. "They know what they are doing" they said. In the end, AMRN dropped the case because the FDA agreed they would abide by a court order. Again, they dropped the case because the FDA agreed to abide by the court order from said case. Boy, AMRN sure did get a lot out of THAT.
And a lot of people and theories proven wrong.
As I had been stating for a long long time, this was a non-event.
Meanwhile JL was adamant AMRN would only agree to a settlement if they got a label expansion. WRONG.
Raf went from crazy theory to crazy theory, including it being "Cherry related", to REDUCE-It related, to crazy ideas like the FDA and AMRN throwing the DMC to the side and looking at REDUCE-IT data, to the FDA "promising" to review REDUCE-IT quickly. Then went to the 18th being all NCE related, and 15 second signed documents. All WRONG.
Many people thought NCE was involved, including Bio. WRONG.
And once again, AMRN blunders away another opportunity to produce something of actual value. They had power in this case, and have squandered it. Drop the case? For what exactly? Great job guys! 7 months for nothing.
I was gonna say...what planet did you come from? AMRN receiving damages from the FDA is really laughable as a concept.
How about because every possible topic has been discussed enough to beat down about 50 dead horses? At this point I think every last nook and cranny and every possible angle has been covered. Multiple times. Like a hundred times or more. At this point it just comes down to waiting. There really isn't much left to discuss, unless you just want to continue re-hashing the same topics for the 101st time.
I also think your timeline is WAY too fast.
Here is a realistic timeline:
-967 happens to the person.
-That event is reported into the database. I would think this would take 4-6 weeks after the actual event. The event needs to happen, there needs to be a follow-up with the investigator. That investigator or some other medical professional must look at the person's record and make a determination of whether that qualifies as an event. Then someone will need to actually report it into the database as an event. 4-6 weeks seems reasonable here. And 4-6 weeks could possibly be faster than what is actually happening, especially if trial participants are only following up with an investigator quarterly.
-I actually think AMRN wouldn't start adjudicating events until the database contains MORE than 967 events. This is because some events may be thrown out as not actual events. So say the database hits 980 and then they say..ok, lets start looking at all the events and adjudicating them. So in reality it may not even be 967 we are waiting for, it may be a number greater than 967. It is going to take a long time to really go through and adjudicate all events. 2 months does seem reasonable given the amount of work involved.
-Once all events have been adjudicated and 967 have been confirmed, the actual analysis must take place. A solid 1-2 months seems reasonable for results to be tabulated, reviewed, confirmed, discussed, etc.
-The DMC must make it's recommendation to AMRN. After which AMRN will probably want some time to internally discuss the recommendation and it's implications. A week or two for AMRN to digest the result, before we hear anything.
In the end, from the time 967 actually occurs to when AMRN informs the public of the result could easily be 4-6 months (probably closer to the 6 months than the 4).
I also think AMRN might not be totally sure of how long this is all actually going to take, so I take their time guidance to be conservative. I think they are making sure they definitely over estimate the actual time needed. I think the result comes out in the 1st half of this year. And given my 4-6 months estimate for the lag time between 967 and result, this further makes me think 967 did actually already occur, in December of January. Add on the 4-6 months and May-June seems likely.
Again, you keep saying "occur". Can you clarify what "occur" would mean to the company? To me occur to them would mean when it shows up in their database as an event. Which again, is different from when it actually occurs to the person.
Also, I said an analyst recently said they expect it this summer. I didn't say AMRN said that. Pleas re-read.
Because I am sure AMRN is aware of these time delays, so the timeline just isn't working out if they think that 967 has not actually happened to the person in real time. If that was the case, then we are looking at months before the interim analysis would even BEGIN, and that analysis itself takes time. We would be looking at a fall conclusion (Septemberish, very very late). And that isn't jiving with AMRN's rhetoric along with an analyst saying they expect something during the summer. Given the timeline we have, I think it suggests the adjudication process is underway around now, and when that concludes (weeks from now maybe?) then it gets turned over for the analysis, which will probably take a couple of months. That timeline would put us right near the Juneish timeframe that jives with what is being said.
Also, I said highly likely, I didn't say it I think it has 100% occurred. But all the evidence points to that it happened, and the current process is gathering data and adjudicating events. Then the analysis will happen which as we know will take additional time. If I had to guess, I would guess that the actual 967th event happened to the person in December or January.
Why do you mean by "occur"? I think there is a lot of confusion on what is mean by the "967 has occurred". Do you mean it shows up in the database? Or when it actually happens to the person in real time? Not only does adjudication take time, but time from when it occurs to when it shows up in the database takes time too. So when you say it has "occurred" then the adjudication process immediately starts, are you referring to it could show up in the database then the adjudication process starts? What I am talking about is when the event actually happens to the person. Given these delays, I think it is likely it has occurred, the company knows it has occurred, but they are in the adjudication/waiting process for it to show up and be finalized as an event.
You have shown you don't have a very good understanding of how things work and happen in real life. Your "they could sign a letter in 15 seconds" comments already proves that. And you think all these things happen extremely rapidly. You live in a black and white, fast paced world when the real world is gray and slow.
But I already said in my first post this was my opinion. So thanks for responding to tell me as such.
Based on a belief that from the time 967 actually happens in real life to the time it makes it into the database and has been adjudicated will take months. Also think based on recent AMRN rhetoric that perhaps they have an idea 967 happened but they are in the adjudication process.
But hey, Raf criticizing someone for posting an opinion on something would be rich! The same guy that has thrown out so many crazy outlandish theories it is dizzying.
I think it is highly likely that 967 already occurred. And may have occurred some time ago. It might not be in the trial database yet, or AMRN might not yet know it has happened. But has it actually happened in real life? I think so. I think the delay from 967 actually happening to 967 being declared triggering the interim analysis may be a couple to a few months. Of course this would just have to be considered my opinion since it can't be backed up with any fact. Just my opinion on how things work.
I also do not believe we shareholders will be notified formally by the company that 967 has been declared and the interim analysis has begun.
haha....another Raf pipe dream. Absolutely zero chance of that happening.
IBB up 4.4%, AMRN gains 2 cents.
Many claim the only reason AMRN is at $1.48 a share is because of the overall market and the IBB. But they only use the excuse when both go down. AMRN struggles for 2 cents on a day the IBB surges. Meanwhile we have people posting that buying AMRN right now is the steal of the century. If only people with real money and real knowledge felt the same way.
No question. Not denying that. Management deceived a lot of people, myself included.
The decision to not dilute at $2.50 when they had the chance will be looked back on as a very very poor decision. Similar to the decision to NOT dilute at $12 back in 2012 and instead take that horrible loan. Just think if they would have raised $400m back in 2012 before Marine launch and how much better off this company and it's stock would be. Now we will have to sit through a huge dilution in the low to mid $1s when it could have been done at $2.50 or higher. Management continues to just destroy shareholders.
And it isn't just about Stonepine. Abingworth, Stonepine, and Camber ALL sold out of their positions by the end of 2015. And these entities have strong and close quarter histories with AMRN. All three decided to get out now. It is really frightening.
AMRN now has ZERO 5% owners. Not a single entity filed a 13D or 13G stating they own 5% of AMRN shares. Now THAT is pathetic.
Well, the most important thing now would be to secure the financing necessary to get to final REDUCE-IT. They could have diluted at $2.50, but once again, the wrong decision was made. So now the stock is at $1.40 and isn't going to go up anytime soon. So it is just a bad situation. They are going to be forced to have to dilute down at these levels.....it's gonna be a huge kick in the groin to shareholders.
Yep, at this point it is just sit back and wait for REDUCE-IT in 2018. EVERYTHING rides on that. The company has made it that way.
No. The answer was to have partnered with a major BP who has a 1000+ sales force who can really move the drug. Should have happened years ago. Pretty much too late now for that. Hiring more sales people would just be a waste of money at this point. Reps are averaging about 2 new scripts a month. That is not a good cost benefit tradeoff. Hiring more sales people would just bleed cash faster.
"A1" better drive scripts? Well, people have been saying that for about 7 months now, and is has yet to happen. Just repeatedly saying something over and over isn't going to make it true! It is a nice thought that rising scripts will save the day, but again, reality is far different. Raf predicted an easy doubling of scripts within 6 months of the 1A ruling. Well, reality isn't even in the same stratosphere as that. So you can keep saying it, but it just isn't going to happen. Over 3 years on the market and not even 20% market share is in the cards. There is no reason that is all the sudden going to change.
They don't want their world view to change. Everything about AMRN is positive and will end positive. That is the view, and they will go to great lengths to defend that view. It is a psychologist's dream and I am sure there are already plenty of explanations out there on this. But now in order to defend this viewpoint, "management is lying" is the new mantra. They can't and don't want to accept that REDUCE-IT won't be stopped at interim, that scripts are on the verge of exploding, that a label change is coming out of the 1A talks. "management is lying" shushes away blatant evidence to the contrary, especially regarding the 1A talks.
Is AMRN management going to sacrifice anything to get to 2018?
Shareholders are sure going to have to sacrifice. How about AMRN freezes all management salaries until the final REDUCE-IT event is recorded? We have had to sit through multiple dilutions, with another big one fast approaching. Meanwhile JT and the boys haven't sacrificed one penny and during this time have made millions of dollars. They are getting rich while the balance sheet suffers mightily. They stress cost containment. So maybe we can start with freezing management salaries until 2018? Time for them to sacrifice with the rest of us.
This isn't news? AMRN confirmed the same thing on the last CC, remember? So why are you and others surprised? Last CC they said it was about language, but we had people like JL saying "oh that is just what they are saying in public. The real truth is they are REALLY negotiating a label change". People on here literally believed management was lying about the true nature of the talks publicly, but that the real truth was so much more significant.
So there is no surprise here. This was already known.
And all of the absolutely absurd crazy theories you kept bringing up were once again proven to be completely silly.
Only for the people who aren't living with a realistic view of reality. Which is most of this board. But realists are not surprised, this was the most likely reason for the negotiations. And 7 months isn't a long time in FDA time. This was just another AMRN management failure; this should have been back in court last October. Now we are faced with the real possibility that AMRN may drop this case due to a settlement regarding language. Unbelievable.
Are you saying I haven't shown enough anger for your satisfaction?
Speaking of conspiracy theories, I would think an astute, logical thinker would come to a different conclusion on my presence. I first started posting here when the stock was $2.40. Since that time, the stock has gone straight down, nearly 50%. So wouldn't the saavy conspiracy theorist say that my sudden absence from posting would be the signal the stock is about to go up? And not my continued presence, during which the stock has only gone one way (down)? My presence the last 6 months hasn't meant anything with regards to the stock going up, but now all the sudden it does? Think please!
Interesting perspective. Especially considering the stock was $2.40 when I first started posting here. But hey, never mind the facts. Just get some more tinfoil for your hat.
haha. I admire your conviction.
What ever did happen to completing enrollment?
We were told it may spill over a little bit into this year. Here we are, about to enter March, and enrollment is still not complete. Anyone know what is up? Reason why they haven't finished enrollment? Or just another JT smoke screen? It is crazy that they could be that far off from reality. But hey, this is AMRN, why should we expect anything except the most uncertainty possible?
Well, I am sorry your memory is slipping. Two examples I found easily:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=119855188
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120130540
You mean the question I brought up as an issue months ago, but no one wanted to discuss cause it was just me "bashing"?