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Well if you pick stocks like pharma that are either worth 0 or triple their current price, its actually not too surprising. It's kind of like betting it all on black, which is what you should do if you really want to win one of these contests.
wrong board
Well, it's nice to hear from them. Not sure how much I really take from the whole Manhattan project thing. I like that they are still saying 20M revs per 6000 locations, this is down slightly from before, but is reassuring after their 4Q results.
Honestly their AR is so full of errors I don't know what to think of it. I just noticed they released "corrected" financials and its still full of errors. For example, their yearly profit is labeled profit for the quarter, and added to retained earnings as if it were a quarterly gain.
These guys are highly seasonal so I will be holding into summer at least.
Well on pg 9 they do say they are up to 1000 retail outlets. It's hard to tell because their financials are so full of errors, but I think they expanded from around 400 to at least around 700 in Q4. It seems their expansion is continuing, if you believe they can count to 1000. I have my doubts after seeing their accounting, but I'm inclined to believe them on this one.
I hate to be negative about a stock I own, but I'm looking at the same AR as everyone else. These guys are running a company with millions in revs and they release financials like they're doing a high school project. There were errors in prior financials but this is 10x worse. I would guess they got an email from OTC saying they were getting blacklisted and threw this together after COB yesterday (it came in late in the evening).
The good news is they continued expanding to 1000 retail outlets from 700 in December. Holding at this point (not much choice). I have a stink bid out for anyone who wants to dump on the bid.
Well they have never released an annual report on time, so OTC put that black mark on them. It's not a good thing, but I'm not surprised. Clearly someone today was not enthusiastic about it and decided to dump their shares on the bid. I would like to see their AR this month at least. Could be worth trying to call them up and let them know we're waiting. Some people have had luck getting hold of them in the past.
Ya I'm with you on that. Clearly one of our numbers is wrong. Either that attendance number is inflated or they were selling tickets at half price.
NGHT SSK you need to take it easy over there, we all know this Q was bad. There was a decent argument that revs should have been way up after their main rev driver had a huge attendance increase. This just shows that anything can happen. Also shows that you should consider selling when there's a big question mark, like the last quarter in this case.
FYI I had no position but I probably would have bought if there were shares available in the .02s. Sorry to OTC who had a large position and a decent thesis.
wade - let me clarify. I think the cash in the bank should be a factor even if it didn't touch your portfolio this year at all, because it changes your risk profile.
In other words, these 2 portfolios are the same from a practical perspective:
Portfolio 1: 200k cash in bank, 700k assets in portfolio, 200k margin (total value 700k)
Portfoilo 2: 0 cash in bank, 700k assets in portfolio, 0 margin. (total value 700k)
but one will have artificially inflated % gains if the cash in the bank is not counted. If you think about it, the first portfolio is basically lending cash to a bank (deposits), and borrowing it back from another "bank" at a higher rate (margin), with restrictions (collateral).
Wade I know you said final thoughts but I wanted to give a quick thought of my own. I don't 100% agree that cash in the bank should not be part of the calculation. Wouldn't you agree that having a large, practically risk-free cash asset in the bank affects the amount of risk you are able to take in your investment account? And if it affects your strategy it should be somehow included?
And today it is back to normal - weirdest thing. Oh well I guess that will feed my paranoia for a while. I don't know if those trades yesterday were even real...except the 10k on the bid, that was me. Like I said I tried to take that supposed .045 offer but the exchange did not accept my order.
MUEL Yikes. I didn't see anything in particular about one-time charges in the PR or AR, besides 500K to LIFO reserve, this would bring them back over $1 EPS, but they had a similar charge last Q. Could it be foreign currency issues affecting their revenues? Not sure, but their margins are way down.
anyone able to buy these guys? I am interested in that .045 offer, but either my broker (IB) or the exchange is messing with me. No fills -- even offered to buy 100 shares for .06 still no fill...MMs running out of shares? I was able to trade other names so I don't think its a technical issue. Little annoying to wait 3 weeks and not be able to buy when shares show up.
Problem buying nano cap stock
Using IB
I'm on the bid at .04.
L2 shows ask at .045, so I put in a new bid at .045, IB shows it is active.
When i put my new bid in, someone else's bid appears at .044, and the market does not get mine. I know it is someone else because while my .045 bid is out a trade executes on .044 and I don't get the shares. When I remove my bid the .044 bid goes away. I know this because I got shares on .04 earlier in the day. Also I know the .045 bid is real because someone else grabs those shares.
Bid is well covered by cash
Tried different amounts
Tried closing/re-opening all trades
Tried closing and logging back in
Tried different accounts
Ideas?
Thanks,
QCCO @SSK Everything you said is true. I don't want to get into an extended argument on this one because it is pretty straightforward. Really it comes down to how you put together all the facts into a coherent story. In other words, do you focus on the positives or the negatives, or do you weigh them evenly. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
According to the company, it has to do with increased consumer spending due to people getting their tax refunds, plus "holiday spending habits". Not 100% sure why that is, but last year for example they made 2/3s of their profit in Q1, with a similar pattern in previous years.
QCCO one of my picks reported earnings today. I could write a novel here about all the different ways they are undervalued, but I can sum it up by saying they are a profitable payday lender selling way below liquidation value, & yielding 12% from a large cash and ST asset balance. Note that Q1 is their best quarter by far. Check them out if interested.
OTC you know better than most how to accumulate an illiquid stock. That is the point I am trying to make.
NGHT I don't know why someone is being so aggressive on this one. Ask has been below .03 for like 6 months, no reason to bid it up above .03. And sure enough when you bid it up the ask moves and there are no substantial trades. Just an observation.
NI.to/VNCKF So is there any real reason for these guys to be down 80% or is it mainly just fears that the Canadian oil industry is dead? Looked interesting before the oil crash but I haven't done any work on it recently.
EVSI I am keeping an eye on these guys. My concern is even though they said they will start delivering in Q4, that may have been a bit ambitious because they didn't officially open their manufacturing plant until the middle of November. Still, I think the risk/reward might be there if you can get cheap shares as the stock is already down around all-time lows. I may grab some shares going into the AR.
Yea that seems a bit ambitious to me. EOM
I decided to sell. Mainly because this has become much more complicated with the acquisition, the dilution, and the up-listing talk. I really don't know what their financials are going to look like. I take SSK's opinion seriously, so after his post I re-evaluated my position. I was on the fence and leaning towards holding into the AR until I found the financials for Akimbo buried in Ex.1 of the December 8-K (has anyone seen this?). Honestly I don't really like what I see. I will let you guys be the judge for yourselves, but it doesn't smell right to me. Good luck all.
Gotta love market buy orders
Why would the US turn down cheap oil? Cheap energy benefits our entire economy at the expense of a small part of it. If OPEC wants to sell us oil for practically nothing we should happily buy it and leave our oil in the ground until it's worth more.
EIL.v Someone really didn't like that PR. So who's going to grab those shares offered at .11? TBH, I am hesitant to add any more to this because the Canadian dollar continues to crash out against the USD and their currency hedge book will post huge losses until it stabilizes. Falling canadian dollar is good for them in the long run, but is the market smart enough to know the difference?
EIL.v Yes and very few shares on the ask as well. Shares are probably worth at least upper teens.
EIL.v It's probably based on the low forward PE & backlog, with any growth being free. Very cheap on a run-rate basis.
The math you are doing sounds great, and that is exactly the math the Saudis did in the 1980s. Unfortunately it doesn't work. They eventually cut their production by 75% (10m bpd to 2.5m bpd) and they still couldn't support the price. They ended up having to take the price to $10 to reclaim market share.
Yea, I don't particularly like sitting in it either, but everything says Q4 will be good so I'm going to hold until at least the Jan PR.
Can you tell me why that matters when Saudi production is flat, and OPEC production is down y/y?
Why do you question my motives in response to a simple question?
World oil demand is not down, according to the EIA.
How can anyone blame the Saudis when their production is basically unchanged for the last 3 years?
Q was good, but they had $1M unrealized loss on currency hedges. Not 100% accurate to put all those losses in 1 quarter but that is the accounting standard. Falling CAD is mostly good for them because their expenses are in CAD.
I like it, especially phrases like:
"In the second quarter, our media based attractions
segment was active building several of its new products concurrently, and this presented challenges from an “earned
revenue” perspective. This was reflected in the reduced profitability for the segment in the second quarter. We expect that
the balance of the year will improve for this segment as compared to the second quarter." (From Q2 MD&A)
Q2 was basically their best qtr ever, and media-based attractions account for half their revs.
Also as mentioned, management has said that all areas of the business are improving.
The negative is that they have a big comp to go up against from last year. With the good Q2 and indications from management, I think there is a good enough chance that they will beat that to make this a worthwhile bet. GL
Opinion only, draw your own conclusions.
AAPL Window-dressing rally going on. Hedge funds piling in to show up on end of year statements. Who's buying Jan calls?
I agree. People see multiple 4 filings a month with management selling and it's a big turnoff. But he owns a quarter of the company and we are at his mercy as minority shareholders.
-Long & cynical
ERMS Yea, but the business only exists to enrich the CEO...I'll stop now.
ERMS Ouch, this is a $1.8m pile of cash that's worth much less than $1.8m because its attached to a business with a huge negative value. 40% of the operating expenses are the CEO's salary. Chart is depressing for a reason IMO.
ash, I'll take a stab at this because you seem really confused.
I think you are trying to separate the cash balance from the operating assets of the business. In this case you can't do that. The cash balance is an operating asset because of their business model. There is no way they would be able to maintain their current liabilities without the cash balance.
Please take a minute to try to understand this.
PYDS COO has been selling in regular $3000 chunks for 10+ years