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Yanmar Like I said...if INTEL is giving Wave Systems
the BIG HIGH FIVE, then you can guess that it is very very likely that Mr Softee is going to do the same.
It ain't called WINTEL for nuthin'!
awk Yes and here is why.
My bet is that the TCG behemoths want 'agnostic' Wave Systems to write the stuff so that they have 'cover' when it comes to the 'political' issues, that is the 'Wintel invading my privacy' arguments that KO'd WINTEL several years back.
After all, we can't have WINTEL writing the specs, can we? If that happens, then the 'privacy nuts' would go ballistic.
So.....let 'agnostic' Wave Systems do it. Heck, they are better at it anyway.
LOL
Investors have SIX CHOICES (longs that is).
Today, investors can do three things. BUY MORE. SELL. OR JUST HOLD.
Tomorrow & the Future......investors can BUY MORE. CONTINUE TO HOLD. OR SELL.
We know today's prices. We don't know 'tomorrow's prices'.
Given recent developments, it is logical to say that the probabilities of INCREASING REVENUES is much greater today versus last year or the year before.
Hence, the probability of tomorrows stock price being GREATER than todays is also Greater.
Profitability will happen at that point in time wherein revenues exceed total costs of 'goods' sold (both tangible and intangible) and after taxes paid. This will happen sooner than most people think because most of the 'costs' ($230 million plus heretofore)are frontloaded and the distribution is being borne (to a large extent) by other parties.
My bet is that the WISE DECISION is to BUY MORE TODAY.
IMHO.......
Da Deven Great Post! You are right on the $$$$$$.
As I have been saying for quite awhile now, ever since the INTC/WAVX alliance, there is very little probability that INTC would go 'full steam ahead' with Wave Systems WITHOUT getting some sort of 'go ahead' signal from MSFT.
Everyone knows that MSFT and INTC are known as WINTEL. These two companies do everything in lockstep. They know each other inside and out.....and they help each other out. You scratch my back and I will scratch yours.....kinda thing.
WINTEL have the same strategy book, more or less. And so, I think that Wave Systems will figure nicely in MSFT's plans for security. How exactly? Who knows? When exactly? Who knows? But there is NO WAY that INTEL would be putting Wave Systems in all its next generation gizmos without getting the green flag from Mr. Softee. No F'n Way!!!!
so......given the above where does this take us? Well, I think that pretty soon everyone in the digital space (inc the QUALCOMMs of the world) will figure out that they ought to put Wave's ETS package in their little gizmos.....if for no other reason than to fall in step with WINTEL. No one wants to look like they are out in Left Field....if ya know what I mean. Then, we will see activation and usage rates go up.....gradually at first....and then BAM BAM BAM WHAM!!!!!! The activation/usage rates will skyrocket because everyone will see what great benefits they get from the stuff. Then, the revenue stream will just EXPAND EXPAND EXPAND...........
This is the way it goes. It is NEVER a neat straight line. But if ya don't get with the program, then you will be left behind very very fast.
IMHO>.......
Armp Check out Slide 5 in the SKS presentation.
Yup. on slide 5 there are all sorts of market numbers.
Pretty big numbers too. In the billions and billions.
Armp Didn't SKS provide a slide on the Security Market
in terms of growth and money spent?
I thought he did.
Armp THAT WAS ANOTHER GREAT POST!
You are right on the money....no pun intended.
I guess one could sum up the WAVX investment rationale now in a couple of ways:
First, an expoentially increasing portion of the US economy is being devoted to Homeland Security in all its myriad forms. Digital security is a big part of this money flow trend. Wave Systems is the ONLY pure play on Trusted Computing (aka Hard core Digital security)...so, by investing in Wave one is placing oneself dead center in the middle of this money flow trend.
Second, INTEL (and by extension MSFT,imho)and DELL COMPUTER and other digital behemoths have selected Wave technology as a core partner in the abovementioned money flow shift. This is the endorsement factor and it comes from the BIGGIES who can drive it.
Third, others have not done it yet because it is still a brand new shift. Also, there are barriers to entry in terms of patents and technical skillsets that Wave Systems enjoys in the market. And Wave Systems is 'agnostic' and thereby enjoys a political benefit in terms of the 'big brother' issue (this is the problem WINTEL hit about 4 years ago.
What could go wrong? Well, i guess a number of things that most of us could drum up. Unexpected competition and again, the whole 'privacy issue'/sociopolitical concerns...blah blah blah.
Recap and KEY POINT: Well, I guess I still have to say that SKS's point of "who (IT purchasing mgr)would want to be the Last One to buy the Last Untrusted Computer?" in this age of 'security'??? And Wave System is the ONLY PURE PLAY in the Trusted Computing money flow shift.
Good enough for me.
Armp One of my bad investment decisions was NOT
buying Dell back in the early 1990s. I just couldn't see how Dell could pull it off given the foreign competition (Toshiba, Samsung etc etc). I knew IBM's PC division was eventually a goner. The same with HP. But I was SO WRONG with Dell. Oh Well.....
But anyway.....I REALLY LIKE the end of the presentation when SKS talked about "not being the last one to buy an UNTRUSTED COMPUTER". That is Classic. If the analysts come away with anything, then they can AT LEAST come away with that concept. That is a very very powerful idea. Can you imagine being an IT purchased at a Homeland Security type operation and being responsible for purchasing Untrusted equipment...and then there is a BIG NETWORK INVASION.....and as a result many thousands of soldiers or civilians are Killed. YIKES!!!! There is NO WAY a Govt Op can now buy an UNTRUSTED COMPUTER given the fact that they now KNOW that Trusted Computers now exist out there in the marketplace. No way!!!
That is called the Catbird's Seat!!11
Weby I couldn't agree with you more.
Great post. Rereading the presentation a couple of times, I still like the end the most. That's where SKS says it is so much fun these days to go to Govt ops and tell them about Trusted Computers. Now these govt ops are FORCED to buy Trusted Computers because they will be held ACCOUNTABLE for the consequences if they do otherwise. This is especially so for Homeland Security type Govt ops. Talk about being in the catbird's seat.
Great stuff.
Armp I agree with your 2007 revenue forecast as well
as your 2006 forecast. I am sorry to say I don't really agree with your other points in your post. I think SKS did make the case that IT spending is rapidly moving to Security. And I think SKS made the case as to who the drivers are, that is the behemoths in the TCG like Intel and Dell etc etc.
I really liked the end of the presentation when SKS said that it was alot of fun to go to the govt people and tell them about Trusted Computers. Now, these govt orgs MUST buy the Trusted Computers because they will be held ACCOUNTABLE for doing otherwise. Now that is what I call being in the catbirds seat.
LOL
So the Cat is Outta the Bag! If you are a Gov't.
Purchaser of IT gear, then you are now ACCOUNTABLE for buying
Untrusted equipment. You go to JAIL!
What do I mean? Well, like SKS says, it has been tremendous fun going around the Govt telling them that Trusted Computing is here NOW! What he is sayin' is that these Govt Purchasing Officers are now ACCOUNTABLE to buying the RIGHT type of IT gear that will be TRUSTED. They are ACCOUNTABLE because it EXISTS! Since Trusted Computers exist, then the Govt purchasing managers are OBLIGED to buy it. If they don't, then they are accountable for the CONSEQUENCES and they go to "JAIL".
This is especially so for HOMELAND SECURITY. There are NO MORE EXCUSES!
I can see why SKS says it is so much fun. Can you imagine being in the catbird's seat like that?
HA HA HA HA HA......
this is really really GOOD!
Steve I know I know..I agree with you but
Wave Systems is just not going to crank out a PR everyday ala SUNW or CSCO. I cannot say it is good or bad...or right or wrong....it just is what it is.
Maybe Wave Systems knows that it is revenue generation that is gonna move the stock these days. So maybe they are just gonna wait for that to become CLEAR for all concerned.
who knows? All I know is that INTEL has selected Wave Systems for its next generation products when it comes to trusted computing. My Lord, that means ALOT!!!
I ain't kiddin' when I say that MSFT and INTC coordinate their agendas. Neither does anything without the de facto approval of the either. How do ya think these two behemoths control 85-90% of their markets? It's because they are WINTEL and they coordinate in a manner that is mindboggling.
So, if INTC taps Wave Systems, then MSFT taps Wave Systems. As simple as that. If one of them gives the Good HouseKeeping Seal of Approval, the the other one gives the Seal too.
IMHO....
HI Da Deven I think the reason is that Wave Systems....
doesn't feel the need to PR every new development. Less pressure on them these days for whatever reason. I think this is a very POSITIVE development.
Also, I think they are skittish about PR issuance because of the way the journalists misinterpret and outright 'disinform' in their coverage. Remember the lousy news coverage we received when we came out with that IBM/INTC news a while ago?
anyway, Wave Systems is much more low key and circumspect these days.
wavxmaster alot of talk about Dell vs INTC today.
Both deals are great in their different ways. INTC has now officially said that Wave is gonna be combined with the TPM1.2 for the total package. Done deal. This is critical because I don't think INTC would be taking these initiatives without the approval of MSFT. I really don't. MSFT and INTC know each other's strategy books inside and out. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if they wrote each other's strategy books. So, I think the true significance of all this is that MSFT is going to go with Wave. Why? Because it is easy for MSFT to use Wave Systems technology insofar as it takes the 'monkey off their back' in terms of the 'big brother' issue.
So, I think that Wave Systems is going to be part of MSFT's rollout and I think the fact that NTRU is up to its eyeballs in supporting MSFT is also ANOTHER indicator in all of this dynamic.
IMHO....
the significance of the INTC 1.2 + ETS bundling is............
that (In My Humble Opinion) INTC wouldn't be doing all this unless it has received the green light from Mr. Softee.
INTC and Mr. Softee are connected at the shoulder,hip,knee and foot (and maybe the Head too!). So, me thinks that there is alot of significance in the IDF stuff that is going on right now that is essentially saying that Wave technology is going to be integrating in many new rollouts going forward.
IMHO...
vh Here is another try
I believe that we had knowledge that INTC was going to come out with 1.2 this Spring and the IDF was going to be the rollout.
Heretofore, prior to my earlier post(s), there was no EXPLICIT knowledge that INTC was going to rollout 1.2 with Wave ETS in one package.
anyway, that is my take.
This is important DD.
we know now that INTEL has bundled the TPM1.2 with Wave ETS.
http://www.intel.com/idf/us/spring2005/systems/sponsors_exhibitors/showcase.htm
go to booth 32. In all the prior literature about the Digital Office Platform, INTC stated that the new desktops came with TPM1.2 but did not SPECIFY the software support.
Well, now we know it is Wave Systems ETS.
INTC IS MAKING THE TPM1.2 STANDARD WITH WAVE ETS!!!!!
GO TO BOOTH 32 AND SEE FOR YOURSELF
http://www.intel.com/idf/us/spring2005/systems/sponsors_exhibitors/showcase.htm
QUOTE: "TPM1.2 WITH WAVES EMBASSY TRUST SECURITY SOFTWARE"....
the TWO GO TOGETHER. NOT ONE WITHOUT THE OTHER.....BUT BOTH COME TOGETHER IN ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL PACKAGE. NO IFs ANDs OR BUTs.....
THAT SPELLS C.L.A.R.I.T.Y.!!!!!!
INTEL STATES CLEARLY THAT WAVE'S ETS IS VALUE ADDED.....
and is bundled with the TPM1.2 in the new Desktops!!!
The chip company that RULES the Digital World states clearly and categorically that Wave Systems software is value added and will come standard with their new office desktops!!!
GO TO BOOTH #32 TO SEE FOR YOURSELF!!!
http://www.intel.com/idf/us/spring2005/systems/sponsors_exhibitors/showcase.htm
HOW MUCH CLARITY DO YA WANT??????
barge Here is the link referencing TPM 1.2
in the Digital Office desktops!
GO DOWN TO BOOTH #32 TO SEE THE REFERENCE!!!!
http://www.intel.com/idf/us/spring2005/systems/sponsors_exhibitors/showcase.htm
right there in BLACK AND WHITE.
I cannot wait for Dell to win a contract like this............
http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/business/article.adp?id=20050302062909990007
$4 Billion for new desktops at the Min.of Defense.
Come on Dell! Let's get an order like that one!
yowza...
barge..don't u think that the STX deal could be
seen as a strong accelerator into the consumer market? Read here:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2005/tc20050228_6837_tc024.htm
It seems to me that WAVX is really moving ahead in all market segments now. I still think the public sector is going to be the first really big deal.....but all of it is gonna be B.I.G.!
tell me what you think?
cmf I have been PUBLIC about agreeing w/ ARMP's
revenue numbers all along. Check 'em out for yourself. AMRP's rev. projections for this qtr are minimal. Next year we are looking for very impressive growth but by 2007 the revenue numbers will simply E.X.P.L.O.D.E!!!!!
The market will discount the 2007 numbers. I am willing to wait because the returns will be MASSIVE over the next two years. M.A.S.S.I.V.E.!!!! There will be very few, if any,single investment ideas that will match it over the next 24 months.
Actually, you won't have to wait 24 months at all. I think in 6 months the market will sense what is going on.
SO I AM SITTING TIGHT AND AIN'T SELLIN' TILL I AM STINKIN' FILTHY RICH.
good luck to you..
all of the above is IMHO...
GreenWavx....YOWZA!!!!
great find!!
SEE YA IN LAS VEGAS!!!
sheesh, and so it goes and HO HUMS!!!!
OT: Wildman...who gave u permission to use my
idioms? Sheesh,and so it goes and ho-hums!!!!!!!
cease and desist.
JUST KIDDIN'
LOL
Very good timing of STX/WAVX news and IDF
and the analyst forum. They brought it all together.
very good.......
Oh I forgot that we are presenting at PartnerWorld too!!!!!!!
rachelise I agree. Buying the LAST UNTRUSTED COMPUTER
will be the death song of every IT manager.
and so it goes.
VH...this statement stands out very clearly on
the Trusted Computing website.
IMHO......
if it's a buffet, then I'm there!
LOL.....
kant....Yup.
the STX/WAVX mission has just accelerated the consumerization process.
I have had NO DOUBT the eventual big role WAVX will have in the Public Sector (Homeland Security etc etc ).
The consumer market push has just been given a big 'PUSH'!!!!
rachelise maybe so, however.......
ya gotta think that some of the STX engineers/managers are interfacing with AAPL engineers/managers with WAVX shaking hands in both directions....if ya know what I mean.
Logical....
'A new WAVE Lifts Battered Seagate'
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2005/tc20050228_6837_tc024.htm
dated yesterday.
if the BW writer only knew how prescient he/she really was....
ha ha ha ha
and so it goes.
rachelise...Yes, you are correct.
Y'know....WAVX and AAPL have alot of similarities.....from a business culture perspective. AAPL has transformed itself many times and now it is a 'digital company' with a sole mission of empowering the consumer in the digital age. The same with Wave Systems.
IMHO....
Seagate is IPOD! read this:
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2005/tc20050228_6837_tc024.htm
Seagate>>>>>Apple>>>>>IPOD......
hmmmm.....could Wave's ETS assist IPOD?
hmmmm................
Here is the Dell Wave ETS link:
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/learnmore/learnmore.aspx?c=us&cs=04&l=en&s=bsd&~id=s...
what's the issue again?
The Berkshires Thanks for the C.L.A.R.I.T.Y.!!!!!
looking good.
go-kite
is he tryin' to set the bar so high as to _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _?
ho hum....
kisamura BIG in terms of clarity.
imho...
DOMA....imho, Tomorrow we will see some PRs.
Should be a good show....
IMHO.
FOOTWEDGE you are right. Read this report................
http://www.jmdutton.com/PDF_Files/BuySide%20Performance%20thru%20q1.pdf
darn good record.