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Dr. Steven Kaminsky (Rett head of science)--- on the morning of january 1 2017 he video addressed his followers -- this video was on Facebook but could not get it for some reason today.. Anyways if it is still available, and especially if you are good at reading "body language" I highly recommend watching it as he talks about the 2 or 3 possible therapies they have in development .... his demeanour and his excitement elevated obviously when he talked about 273 (compared to the others he also mentioned).... reminds me a bit of how Dr. M talks differently these days...
pietrzkiewicz
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For debunking the deception on deception look at tweets by @piotrpietrzkiew. The company is on track to cure AD. It's all in the data buried to be discovered. Statistically how many year you have to way in order for 6 people to beat AD? In real life never!
@PiotrPietrzkiew
also some commentary at the end of Lanes Dec 12th article on SA.....
see the mmse charts of Pietr on twitter and SA comments section....
German Dr. Alzheimer passed December 2015, at at time in WWI when the Zeppelin's were bombing London ... he likely heard of , but was not around to see the coming Gotha Bombers.....In the avxl world the Zeppelins are getting parked (after the easy targeted Zeppelins received heavy losses to ground fire) and now the mercedes engines of the new gotha bomber squadron are rumbling on the moon lit tarmac... awaiting the command to take off from their long haired commander and fellow bomber pilot........
Gilead paid $11 Billion for its Hep drug in phase 2.... IMO (and just talking about USA now) it is fast movers, below radar but cash rich companies, like Gilead used to be, that avxl has the best chances of a partnership or deal from, here in America... I also think the avxl platform is worth 2 or 3 times what Gilead bought (comparing avxl now to what Gilead bought back at their initial purchase date) ... they jumped the line up and grabbed what they knew was a good deal while all the industry players did thumb fiddling and played typical games....
Floating an additional thought here, was thinking that as far as Industry players here now, if they think AVXL is asking too much, it actually might make sense for them to try and drive avxl into doing PUBLIC (i.e. retail) financing at undervalued prices (by the campaign of bashing, shorting etc, ) since they know/think that they can own those retail shares ultimately anyways (and they think cheaper than what avxl is asking) .... especially if they can create a culture of trading amongst the shareholders.....and also important knowing they have better **access** and **early** knowledge to information..... In essence they might look at retails shares as a temporary holding pen financed by retail , but for them, at no cost...
Now Zeplin like (big slow and filled with Hydrogen and a sitting duck for incendiaries-- i.e. huge retail ownership tricked into thinking trading is smart) but like with the Zeplin saga ... is the squadron of German Gotha G.V. bombers about to be launched? ... The Gotha GV bombers are coming ....
Agreed ... and it looks like management has figured this out as they have been moving in that direction already.... I would not be surprised if average, across the board, US med prices dropped 40%...... ironically though, if you can provide a therapy for a large unserved disease , and at the same time in an environment of pressure on prices, these therapies should do well IMO...
The Japanese will get 273 on the market quick (assuming all trials and testing are adequate) ..... and likely avxl and it's BOD will see that speed as a huge advantage..... A partnership with the wrong company could tie things up also.... Japan (or Austrailia ) partnership would be the best for patients and avxl shareholders IMO.... and then get a US generics partner (Mylan?) for US distribution....
AVXL should benefit from the governments drive to lower costs in healthcare.... The market has not figured this (innovative drugs lowering disease management costs) out yet but the goal of the government is to lower overall costs (and there is a huge difference here between existing drugs and effective drugs in development) .... Bringing in new drugs that lower disease management costs will be factored into the evaluation of how new policies are developed .... there will be pressure to lower generic drug prices especially and even (but to a lessor extent) RX drugs already approved.... but new drugs under development like 273, will benefit since if they show effectiveness and lower maintenance costs of large disease this is exactly what the big picture fiscal plans are being designed for ....perfect alignment....
A poster child of manipulation here ... the most manipulated stock ever (not considering some small insignificant companies manipulated out of the spot light)..... The very high retail ownership and the big target are the two primary factors that combine to ensure the greedy criminals will target avxl (many secondary factors also at play)...
Alzheimer's was named after Germain DR. Alzheimer who first discovered the disease in a female Germain patient.....
clean out day traders selling just before close often.....
Financial structure a Tri Pillar IMO:
Pillar one: If you look at the smart plan at AVXL to have 3 trials running at "Tiny" yes "Tiny" costs relative to typical CNS trials; Pillar two: low overhead again relative to other companies running three trials; Pillar three: a frugal share financing plan ( no toxics, no convertibles, issuing minimal to achieve goals);
IMO you have to look at all three of the above together to see that the plan deserves high marks (its the net end result that counts, not nit picking any one part with out looking at the whole plan and projected the end result.......
Funny Possible Scenario:
-pharma funds/cabal finances and cooperates (nicely) with a downward price manipulation while they try to buy shares or company cheaply...
-pharma funds/cabal finds out they are not getting any shares from LPC (but maybe other are)...
-have they unwittingly held stock down just so someone else can secretly and quickly come in under the cover of darkness and steal the prize, they created....
all just an idea...
the new governments focus on reducing costs (everywhere) should stimulate more generics sales...
With Nasrats background in generics this could be a powerful growth driver on its own IMO, and possibly a sustainable business... You could make an argument that you get all the proprietary pharma products for free... nice...
Thanks John on the two market cap figures.......and just wondering how much value is their generics bus worth currently at say 2 times forward sales expected next year? or any other valuation methods of their generics business?
Au much cheaper phase 2/3; Why?
In the US AD trials have a very poor success rate (since targeting AD plague always) and this is partly why the infrastructure supporting US AD trials is profit bloated .... to the point that hard costs in us are likely half of final costs per patient.... Other reasons for high US costs of AD P3 trials likely stem from a general wealthier economy and dominant bio industry in the US,,, Rationalize in your head why an AD trial should cost 150 million for 300 patients --- when thinking of hard costs you can not, its absurd ?
The structure of the US health system may also contribute to the high trial costs in same...
Doing the Phase 2/3 in Au would be both brilliant and simple .. I could see AVXL getting a trial done at below US hard costs, and possibly much more due to nice subsidies in Au.... $13K per patient is in the range IMO...
In summary doing the two smaller trials in the US (with grant money) and AD in Au (at costs below hard costs) is brilliant and a great financial hedge (to avxl) against the bashing it has endured.....
what is current market cap --- both fully diluted and based on currently issued shares? so two numbers if someone knows?
shareholders are optimistic .... so therefore the company is guilty of promotion....
"Jump over the basket" : Takeda, Utsuka, Elsia, Bayer, (and half a dozen more Japanese and German) and then American under the radar (another 6 or 8)... It is even possible BIIB is a pawn here...
times have changed lately however .... recently trust in the media has diminished ...reducing their effect...
if they don't pull a Mannkind.....
Archimedes vs Vamvakides .... Both brilliant Greek inventors... Vamvakides in the summation of his life long work invented Anavex 273, Archimedes is credited with a large collection of mathematical and physics related inventions (the Romans feared the man massively)...
China just north of AU, remember the chinese news story a few weeks back on avxl ... they likely have pretty good news from AU ..... when will the chinese buying start .... they can forget buying US T-Bills ....exciting...
Trader .... I like the chances of 273 (and the 273 metabolite and 371 (remember thats 3 separate similar Sigma 1 agonists)) acting to both reduce pain and improve sleep problems .... so thats both a PAIN and SLEEP DISORDER drug pipeline.... this is very large in itself but separate from (the much larger) platform potential for both multiple disease vaccine and multiple disease treatment ....
****Remember 273 is very rare in that its metabolite acts on the same two main receptors that the initial active ingredient does....
Bourbon ....... also couple on to those excellent revelations that avxl is a regular bio invited to DC meetings with government (and has established government connections), and then of course the new expedited pathways just being implemented by the new govt .....Lastly the history of bashing avxl may actually ironically ignite positive forces through gov efforts to clean up corruption and lower drug prices...... If you think of all these factors and layer on the results Anavex has revealed , the future is looking good indeed....
This will be successful in Retts and will be approved this year.... The preclinicals Retts showed very good results and some were independently tested by the Retts org.... but another factor here IMO is with the fantastic (and understood) safety record of 273, and Retts being extremely easy to test based on symptoms, I think 273 has already been recently tested and they know it works in Retts...maybe in Greece or Austrailia... There are some other circumstantial clues that point to this as well,,,
FWIW ....7W.... my opinion is that when a company is the target of the biggest unrelenting negative manipulation in the history of bio (which is known for this type of activity) it not only scares investors off (and kills a big part of the positive mood with investors) but it scares bio company decision makers away or makes them want to wait much further than they otherwise would have, from making deals...
IMO as long as the product gets to market to help patients ,as quick as possible, this peripheral activity does not matter that much, especially in the long term, as a partnership ,may/could actually slow down 273 getting to market .... Unless a partnership is good for patients it should be refused....
Question: anyone know what the temperature tolerance of AMDA,s SINI is? wondered if it would withstand around 600 to 700 deg F .....so say the upper limit of the range for cooking... am thinking about an actual application which would use a coating of SINI on various metals...
V. Good post ...thoughts on how pain and insomnia potential could add to the vast CNS potential of 273?
co needs more material transfer deals IMO.... and cannot rely on one co doing independent testing (unless avxl staff participates (very diligently) in said tests and so ensure they do not get gamed --- i.e. tests were good but they switch the mice in the end, when no one is looking, and offer a song for 273 rights).... its a tough world out there....
good ideas guys....A couple thoughts:
-if you look at track record of the finance department (both long term and in the last year and a half) at amda, (including the lack of effort or progress renegotiating debt) and dilutive financings and if you were a medical device company buying out amda which employees would you want to be let go...?
This deal is DD for a much bigger deal.......It makes total sense if you think about it --- for both parties.... AVXL knows pretty closely what they have and do not want to give it away...BP likes the story but wants to reduce risk and confirm the story....a win win IMO.....
jonjones.....
a hypothesis with a similar tact but a twist.....If the powers feel that 273/371 is a game changer, but know that the stock is heavily owned by retail, and independent-fragile minds, why not conspire to shake them out.... just asking and just an idea....
two 3-D printing co's bought by GE today $1.4B
good points golden.... and what if, extending your thinking, the reason they are so quiet and not saying anything is because this is the giant double head fake (a fake within a fake) of the year --- the victims this time --- retail shorts and greedy lone rogue pro shorters (and possibly even some houses of repute) ... If, and that is quite a big if, this was true, this stock would spike to a dollar if it all came to a sudden end with the mother of all squeezes erupting... Again this is a big IF granted IMO... but possible..
If the board was truly concerned about shareholders why do not they announce shares O/S immediately after each issue of shares for debt so shareholders are not navigating with out lights......this would be very simple and send a signal to the note holders that management is not ALL on their side and still respects its fiduciary duties...and without harming any party .... keeping shareholders in the dark IMO reflects very poorly on management... and is totally unessesary..
correction: My mistake I assumed from the name nicotinamide that it was tobacco derived ... on checking this is not the case...