I don't know how long you've been an $AVXL watcher, but whenever I saw order imbalances, something is up...

Regarding today's volume and price spike. To me it looks like a trader f'ed up and used a market order thinking there was more supply overhead, but alas there were no mass of shares for sale and a buy side order imbalance went seeking for "next price"... and I bet someone got a scolding on proper order placement in thin markets.

Using Volume At Price the more realistic high was $7.44

Regarding today's volume and price spike. To me it looks like a trader f'ed up and used a market order thinking there was more supply overhead, but alas there were no mass of shares for sale and a buy side order imbalance went seeking for "next price"... and I bet someone got a scolding on proper order placement in thin markets.

Using Volume At Price the more realistic high was $7.44

P&F chart shows how closely $AVXL has thus far averted a quad bottom fail.

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=avxl,P

Arguably it has failed, but don't tell my fundamental side of my brain which remains bullishly biased on the story and "softer side" of biotech investing paying attention to specifically the anecdotal clues within the Rett Syndrome indication.

Yesterday morning in the FB chat I run I made the comment "Besides more company news, a few other things I'm watching for is the stabilization of biotech valuations, using $XBI as a guide. Then shifting gears to T/A, I'm watching for a long tail on today's candle."

I am encouraged by the Dragonfly Doji as possible first signs of reversal if we get upside follow-through of course as you mentioned.

I gotta say, I'm enjoying the discussions in our own little part of iHub away from the noise.

The author makes some factual notes, but in my opinion makes incorrect conclusions and next steps.
$AVXL's equity financing arrangement is just fine for a microcap equity. Particularly with the ability to "put" shares to LPC as needed and not have to rely on "as needed" equity sale deals into a weak sector and equity market. It should also be noted that over the last year investment banking firms have been laying people off and shuffling staff to other parts of their companies until money starts flowing back to equity and specifically biotech equity. Anavex's plan has always been to keep the projects funded until readouts and here we are at readout stage for AD and Rett.

^^^ wrong^^^

Anavex is past that stage and moving into the next which involves partnering with an actual "large enough" partner for the Alzheimer's disease indication.

A key question for shareholders is, Are these authors concerns enough to change your investment rationale?

If the answer is yes, to minimize fear of failure (or lost trust), sell out completely to reevaluate, reduce allocation size in portfolio, sell covered calls and buy puts "option collar", buy puts, and least effective versus fear, simply sell calls for income on a portion of the holdings.

I've admitted ignorance to the statistical debate, therefore go by the companies analysis and claims.

and more cost effective!

I hope it does and exposes any funny business within share accounting at the DTCC and ex-broker systems.

"MacFastlane"... LOL

Statistics was never my thing. Thx for your comments.

Thx, my typo, but you get my point. So much negative spin on this PR and contrarily Investor 2014 has been positive. Today has been entertaining for sure.

A p value less than 0.05 is significant and 0.25 is less than 0.05 so why are we seeing so much negative spin?

Also, I wanted to mention October is Rett Syndrome Awareness month. ;)

So we went from zero chance to 25% for AA? That's nice.

$AVXL breaks 20 day SMA at $7.97... and we all know more actually material news pending in remainder of 2023.

Trading is squirrely, needs to hold w/ volume of course.

LOL, "Put it on the whiteboard"

The Anavex Rett is a P2/3 trial and was written more like a P2 than a P3 in that the "outcome measures" are as such, RSBQ is primary and within a long list of extremely important secondary outcome measures is CGI-I.

First your comment is pure speculation and second, I believe the anchoring concept is up for debate and has been the subject of academic discussion.


It is unfortunate biomarker development for a rare diseases aren't really a priority, it could have made the Rett trial design less subject to trial design arguements.

Also, within the secondary list are measures that may become biomarkers .

Then to the next step, it's reasonable to think a NDA for Rett early in 2024? Especially since Fast Track, Rare pediatric and Orphan drug programs apply to blarcamesine versus Rett Syndrome.

Thanks for adding clarification and context to the process.

The transition from RCT to OLE is an important important step of which I don't know the details, but I do know the parents of the patients know the facts of the RWE and if the drug created the changes.

My guesses are that Rett will go to regular way approval with no further trials after the current P3, and a NDA filled in early 2024.

AD on the other hand has a few potential paths depending on the strength of the current data from the P2/3 and acceptance of new biomarkers.
From the last 10q, to me this sounds like Anavex will be seeking Accelerated Approval via this new biomarker. "Alzheimer’s disease: Full data ANAVEX®2-73-AD-004, including newly available preliminary results of surrogate biomarkers of pivotal Phase 2b/3 clinical trial. The Company intends to discuss these findings with regulatory authorities in the context of the ongoing clinical development of ANAVEX®2-73 in this indication"