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That thousand dollar range is what I was thinking too, so basically not lookin like the 'Hockey stick' rev growth is here yet.
Good to see some traction...but if my numbers are close at around 400k per treatment is that about 100 treatments? Round trip 200 shipments? Anyone know approx revs from each shipment?
You bet, hard not to be disappointed when mgmt hits guidance they gave 3 years late. Yes, I still hold as the company has great potential, but mgmt needs to earn their keep...or at least earn their incentives!
Well that 8.50ish was the ideal hold area if we were in a rising wedge pattern. Now I'm just hopeful we hold the last major low around $6. We should have some significant support there.
Is it possible a money raise is just around the corner? Based on the latest proxy I'd say its possible? Maybe why the market is nervous, when institutions typically get a huge discount to market.
Wow are we taking a bath lately. Guess the market feels a bit less enthusiastic about the future. We better see some serious improvement in numbers on May 3rd, or it'll be a long road ahead. Especially with this lush incentive package for our 'chosen' insiders. Wait, I thought you had to do something good to qualify for 'incentives'?
Actually ive owned babb for over 15 years and has paid dividends the entire time. Not sure how long the franchisees will just keep payin royalties but seems to be a great gig for insiders...who hold the vast majority of shares, hence get paid in low tax dividends.
Yep, OR even big money is fooled sometimes!?!?!
Dont get me wrong, I hold a ton of shares, Im just frustrated with things like the money raise announcement the day after a big announcement is made, so us little guys get scrooged again and again...
Well, they did do the $9m raise at 2.10 not long ago. I think the fear is, where does the money come from for the eventual bigger trials? For some reason one little biotech will get a huge bid at this stage and be in the hundreds or billion dollar market cap, and others like us dont. We have what would be blockbuster breakthroughs if they pan out. If we 'got a bid' we could sell shares and dilute little. But to raise 100m right now would wipe us out.
Trials take huge money, and we dont have it.
You know, earnings from early biotechs are always bad, I think mbrx had more going on than anticipated. I hope with their 3 (?) Possible drug candidates it isnt a double edged sword, where they need to burn 3 times the cash in trials which causes that much more dilution. Obviously odds of success improve but at what cost.
So...after successfully calling the recent top by how it was trading at the old high. I'll try calling the low in this area around 8.50. It would appear we have a very well defined wedge now established with the rising trend line. If it breaks below this trend line I can see the market re-valuing our stock to what is more realistic.
If we continue to bounce off the upward trend line, we'll come to a moment where it needs to go one way or another...either break lower, or break the old high closing price. If I had to pick, my bet is oviously to bounce off the rising trend line and eventually break the old high(knowing what we know about the business).
Robert, you can use market/trend signals even on these thinly traded small cap stocks. It doesn't always work, but coupled with the right information and market indicators it can sure help pick likely highs and likely lows in a bigger trend.
Its fun to look at if nothing else, and I'm not trading based on these observations as I'm comfortable with the future outlook yet.
What are the biggest threats to us? Ones I can think of are another company duplicating what we have, which would take much time and require re-trials. The other big threat I can think of, are these 'portal' cell processing stations which supposedly cost 100k and could become cheaper. They are not in production yet, and I know no other details.
So I think we are pretty secure for the foreseeable future...all while immunotherapy explodes(although feels like its a slow motion explosion). In the meantime, I'll keep watching trendlines as one indicator of the strength and direction of our share price...
Yeah I didnt watch the markets as a whole today, yikes, what a fall. When the indexes are that ugly, its hard to escape unscathed...
Hate to be a pessimist, but is there any chance we just witnessed a temporary double top? Yesterday was just so controlled into close, maybe its smart money waiting for a nugget of news to drive price beyond the old high.
They do play games, and short of holding strong its hard to outsmart'em.
Boy they are defending that old closing high of 10.21 with everything they got. Lot of small sells just prior to close to paint the tape. I agree with you though Rev...just feels like it wants to go higher!
It'll likely take a really green day to break the resistance, but once that happens I predict we close closer to 11 than 10...
Have a feeling it will be pretty hard resistance and may take a few days, but when it does maybe it'll run hard!
So Revs imo were disappointing...again. I was thinking about the 'guidance' demands we have all had in the past. Think back a year, and imagine Jerry giving guidance of what the last 4 quarters have been...would we be anywhere near $9?
Almost feels like the unknown future has been a good thing for share price? Maybe we don't want guidance? Will we ever see a 'hockey stick' increase in revenues?
Long term I still believe solid investment, the journey has been way different but appears we are still the go-to solution on the market. See what today brings, as appears we will be down as expected.
You have to be a little more convincing than that....with your one post ever...alias created 20 minutes ago. Are you an insider tired of listening to investors complain or what?
Alias Born 03/06/2018 05:45:37 PM
Thanks for the contribution here Robert.
I'm a bit worried about last quarters revs, as I'm not sure Kite and Novartis are contributing much with their commercializations yet. And we had the "COBRA" indicator drop recently. I would really hate to see a 'pause' in rev growth here.
If guidance is actually given this time, that could offset any negative effect of a pause in significant rev growth(as long as guidance is positive).
We really are at lofty valuations if looking at revs, if growth is pushed out again, I can see us taking a heavy correction.
Benzinga Interview of MBRX CEO, this should have been a press release imo...
https://m.benzinga.com/article/11260689?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fm.benzinga.com%2Farticle%2F11290806
Did they state they 'have enough cash on hand till 2019'? Or are you assuming that? Their cash burn should soon skyrocket with all the trials they have planned?
What happens when they need money now? Ouch. Market discounts the future.
You know, if I didnt know any better I would say the share price is being held below the offer price on purpose. Maybe the tutes that were in mbrx prior felt cheated...so theyre trying to keep the share price down to make the 'offer' less palatable. Just sayin...maybe fund managers are moody about their investments like us retail folk
Ahh...please direct me to the press releases from the company that are negative.
Well I might as well talk to myself a bit more...
Last quarter was ok. Next couple quarters will be telling as they now supposedly have an end to end solution for m to m communication and management etc. PLUS they supply the hardware...unheard of for this size company?!?!
It would be so nice for Lantronix to actually grow and become something! Ive been waiting for years for them to hit something more than singles...
Looking at your past posts, it appears you latch onto one stock and attempt to predict the direction with little to ZERO knowledge of the company behind the ticker. So either put some meat behind your claims or GO AWAY.
Link please.
When determining 'fully diluted' values for say quarterly reports, they take existing common shares and also add options, warrants etc that can become common shares and use that number instead of only currently issued common shares (Correct me if I'm wrong). Thats why this is non-dillutive...
Its really something how MBRX can announce study results which are positive and the share price drops. With all the evidence they have presented, MD Anderson as partner, and multiple trials about to start, a person would think a move higher was in order...
Im really hoping the market has just not discovered us yet! All I know, is we need a move higher prior to the next money raise...or its gonna hurt REAL bad.
I fail to see the logic of whoever sold over 60 shares at market in 11 minutes when the price was in appreciation mode. Not only today, but for past number of times '9' was breached.
The reply to this will likely be 'its a fund manager trimming a position'; not even a fund manager dumps shares like that on the open market with no concern of where the price goes. Fund managers use 'limit' prices just like everyone else...especially on thinly traded stocks.
There are reasons to keep the share price below 9, or just 'in check'. Cap raise, buyout offer, etc etc...the game is very obvious.
Anyone else think todays price action looks like manipulation?
Oh, and one more point. It wouldn't look real good if they just offered retail warrant holders a 'deal', and then came out with a cap raise for institutions...likely erasing any discount the warrant holders received.
Not sure just yet, if they needed money THAT bad why would they only offer the .57c incentive on 2M of the 4M warrants? At Sept '17 they had $15,397,512 cash. If they're quarterly burn is lets say $1.5m they should still have $11M'ish in the bank, if they convert 1M of the warrants that's another $3M.
The only variable here is the commercializations, however we've heard they will be somewhat slow ramp so can't imagine huge infrastructure investments? Unless they have some other demand from the 2-8 degree they need to invest in. AM I missing something? Are they building hard facilities around the world?
I think anyway we slice it here, if they do need a cash infusion, its for hard demand, we're moving into growth phase here, so if they do a cap raise it shouldn't be at a huge discount to market, and a $10m raise is only 4M or so shares, so at least we have much lower dilution...finally! Still believe solid stock long term(and not 10 years like many have waited).
And boy, is that $9 mark a battle...if we can close above 9 for a few days I think the next move up will be quick.
Robert, please elaborate on your comment, hard to believe you would argue against simple supply and demand theory.
Whatever your argument, a person can exercise the warrant o get out from it if needed. Sure at a .57c premium to the offer on the table today...but they will not be 'exceedingly illiquid'.
Nice to see, but nothing seams to positively influence price appreciation. Bio can be a very long road, so am really questioning my position here, whats the next catalyst, trial results? Is this dead money until then? Will they need a cap raise before any move up in price???
Wow, impressive sitting elbow to elbow with those names! GE market cap of 146B, and Mckesson with 37B...tiny cryoport 200M? Hmmm, Cryoport would sure fit in GEs portfolio nice...
Auction is now open...Do I hear a billion...lookin for a billion here... someone start us off at a cool billion!!!
No I didnt, the discount just isnt worth the risk of being tied up for over 6 months...plus the added months of actually getting the shares into a liquid state.
Still too many questions of legitimacy here. Im not sure technical analysis can account for the real possibility of a sham going on here. Data can be manipulated however they want outside of trials.
Why on earth, with the only thing that matters is sanctioned trials, would they continue to burn millions 'analysing' data that doesnt count for anything?
This 'PR' shows the market more wasted time and money, possibly the proverbial 'carrot' to keep us sheeple following.
Ill hang with my 1k shares, and only buy more if a trial is started, risk is just too high here.
You are off on so many levels, correlation is not causation. Too much gov regulation in healthcare has much to do with the cost.
I could easily counter every one of your arguments, but this is the wrong place for the discussion.
The US health care system is still the best in the world, but starting to break down for many reasons...one being its largely socialized like your favorite government run systems.
Tell me again why I should bust my backside working while being forced to pay for other peoples healthcare?
Has Anavex been approved anywhere? No. The reward in the US comes on the backend....its why we have been the leader in drug development forever, capitalism works, period.
Anyone see the story on the 'accidental' discovery of diabetes meds treating Alzheimer's?
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2018/01/02/alzheimers-treatment-diabetes/
Happy New Year to all also, hope you had a great Christmas.
Ice, agreed, but it still boils down to what the future growth potential is.
Many 'technology' companies are stagnant. LTRX for example, deals with IoT enabling components(very hot segment), software, and management. They've been stuck at breakeven for years with little revenue growth, valued at around 1x revs. They have good reliable products but there is too much competition.
With CYRX, near term growth potential due to lack of comparable competition is very high right now. What I will be watching/listening for is any real threats to our story, be it cost effective solutions to decentralizing processing of cells, or comparable cold chain management solutions. (May be others I've not mentioned?)
As it stands today our threats are low due to the very long term adaptation requirements in this market. We have so many trials locked up with huge rev potentials I'm comfortable holding, even with significant price fluctuations.