“Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” - J. Paul Getty
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Establishing a strong statement of progress.
I would advise against anything to hasty in this market. Lots of indecision in commodity markets and lower for longer will have devastating impacts on some issuers.
Truthfully it does make sense to average down for them now that they have controlling interest.
Is your outlook improving from here?
Positive development.
I don't see that kind of downside at this time. Things need to improve to make their numbers truly work. What makes you factor that?
It's been incredibly warm this year absent the mega storm that hit the NE. Houston weather right now is dreamesque.
That's a bit dramatic. Care to elaborate behind your outlook? Shifting interest price environment and upcoming policy change seem to be major influences.
@baja much appreciated comments.
IM not sure I read that correctly. 1MMBOPD growth every day is not remotely feasible but it has widened about that year over year. 5% natural annual declines and 2-3 % growth globally will bring rebalance to bear by year end although new range and slower tots recovery over next 2-3. Btw really enjoy his books.
Thanks for the link and share of information. Pickens has been very wrong about oil prices.
It does look like it has found a bottom consistent with where commodity prices have repositioned to. Question is does their liquidity withstand the valley before commodity outlook improves.
Appreciate these links. Cost of capital increases and the end of quantify easing seem to be major influences to markets, directly impacting commodities too?
@Mick, markers for potential bottom showing up for $OIL
$UWTI - According to data compiled by FactSet, aggregate net debt for U.S. oil and gas production companies increased from $81 billion at the end of 2010 to $169 billion by June 2015.
This debt will become increasingly more difficult to service over the next couple of years with interest rates rising and also, U.S. shale producers reported a deficit in cash flow of over $37 billion in 2014.
Good technical comp.
$UWTI $YINN - As things progress with the oil market, I'm seeing more and more positive news.
It's coming in little bits and pieces but the data does seem to point to a world where the market will soon balance out or at least begin to balance out.
This does not mean that oil prices will roar higher to where they were before prices collapsed (that would take much stronger demand and/or a cut from OPEC), but it does seem to indicate the overall trajectory.
Though I have my own criticisms regarding China's economy and I believe investors should be cautious relying on what the nation says, data regarding stronger-than-forecasted demand for 2016 should prove bullish moving forward.
A dilutive equity offering should be kept as the final move to bring Chesapeake back to safety since this particular type of bullet is exceedingly expensive and tends to become practically useless after the first try.
Chesapeake certainly has the capacity for more debt exchanges through a public offering or private exchanges and heavy repurchase of debt on the open market could be done if they are able to replenish their cash liquidity through asset sales.
The situation is undoubtedly dire in terms of commodity prices. Unlike most of the other leveraged names in the oil and gas space, Chesapeake is not yet beholden to financial covenants as a condition for technical default due to its lack of bank debt usage.
The company slightly lowered its revenue outlook for 2016, which was estimated back in Q3 to be 5% below the 2015 revenue.
Now, Caterpillar estimates its revenue will reach, on average, $42 billion or 10% lower than the revenue last year.
$CAT Caterpillar released its earnings for Q4, in which the EPS was $0.74 -- higher than market estimates. And although the company revised down its outlook for 2016, shares of CAT rose in the past few days; in part due to the recent rally of oil prices.
The gold market is showing some early signs of recovery mostly driven by the drop in long term interest rates and rise in the risk aversion in the markets.
These developments didn't help, for now, to pull up shares of Goldcorp.
Other gold producers may face higher debt and AISC, but they are also priced lower than Goldcorp.
Very poor call. Market looked like it was set up to trend that direction but capitulation never hit. Last couple weeks may be it. What do you think?
Good read. What are you expecting in 2016.
Still indecisive in market place. What is your take?
I wouldn't be surprised if they propose or end up cutting further.
Market still very uncertain. Short term trades may be optimistic but watching for stability in market for long position.
Been a wild ride.
A buying opportunity in my opinion. Like Icahn too much energy exposure dragged down portfolio.
Thanks for the link. What is your outlook for 2016?
Consolidation here is critical to emerge a leader in next upcycle.
Really like it here.
Very positive step in my opinion.
Very positive step in my opinion.
Incredible declines in major integrated. Huge opportunities lie ahead.
Do you think last couple weeks was capitulation in the crude market?
Great progress. Very pleased.
Great reaction so far.
Exxon Mobil (XOM -1.8%) promotes senior VP Darren Woods to President, setting him on a path to succeed CEO Rex Tillerson.
The elevation of Woods, XOM’s head of refining, apparently ends the internal competition with exploration chief Jack Williams to replace Tillerson upon retirement some time between now and March 2017 when the current CEO reaches the company’s mandatory retirement age of 65.
Woods joined XOM in 1992 and worked his way up through the refining and chemicals businesses; he was appointed to the management committee that oversees day-to-day operations in 2014 alongside Williams.