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Over the weekend, a friend asked
me about Jackson National...
I'm wondering your thoughts.
I'm starting to check on it...
P/E of 2 and divided?
Sometimes the simplest questions are best.
If it is such a screaming value and buy here,
Then why was it allowed to get here?
This song is getting worn out.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167802130
The Elliott pattern has been textbook.
Going to go?!?
And actually, I would go with Silver, specifically PSLV,
If you just want the metal...
Silver usually lags, then launches, when compared to Gold.
I was saying the metals and miners were a buy over a month ago... And 25% lower.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167665278
Just as I thought -
we spent about 20 minutes above 440 this morning....
I tried to help.
Seems so far away now and so long ago.
Once again, where's the frothy follow-thru from the Bulls ?!?
Did someone again say, "Distribution Time"...
$5 swing on the SPY that should have been easy for all to make money on.
Well hello Mr. H&S...
and thank you for creating another top in the series of lower highs....
So nice for you to swing by -
Just another monthly visit to that top channel line.
and before the consensus starts thinking the market is a value here,
remember the mountain we've created....
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
I will be watching the 5 and 15 minute candles here,
Watching for put entry points, to be scaling in...
First 2 hours are key.
Looking at the in the money puts , the late March dates.
Really hoping we see the premium costs drop.
Look at Gold and Silver,
Just continued upward strength...
That's a good indicator as to how safe the smart money thinks equities are here.
Soo much miscalculation occurring...
What happens when China says,
"We know the Ukraine is and has been a completely corrupt puppet government of the West for a decade."
"We know it has been a money laundering setup the whole time."
Taiwan is now ours and we're doubling the prices of everything you get from here.
Good luck with finding the needed components and raw materials to do it on your own...
Good luck with your green policies.
We're just going to hang out over here, with Russia, and we already basically control Africa, and we have Afghanistan raw materials...
The rest of the world bows to us also...
We'll just watch you and Europe wither...
Tell me if they play hard ball, that it can't happen, without a true global war.
It can be through economic bombs of mass destruction.
The huge underestimated results...
There are articles out there that ask,
"Exactly what does the US want to happen and exactly what does the US expect to occur?"
The stock markets are based on the perceived future values, but how can those be calculated when the perceived future state of the world is in complete uncertainty?
One thing is clear, this administration has no idea what it wants to get accomplished.
Does this administration have any idea what it wants the world to look like at August or in November?
Does it just want Putin to withdraw and then all is well?
Does it think China isn't watching?
Does it think China will just become the new Switzerland?
All of this is highly unlikely...
Odds are huge that the bond between Russia and China get stronger here, and going forward.
When that happens, AND ITS ALREADY STARTED, it will be the US citizens who will be asking,
"How could we have been so stupid..."
"How could we have just thought everything, including the dollar, would be fine when the other super powers just cut us out"
In my opinion, the US is VASTLY OVERESTIMATING the strength it has, when it comes to economic strength.
We are already a domino ready to fall, and the policies put in place over the past year have weakened us tremendously.
Understand...
And I didn't climb deep into researching,
I'm usually too disgusted with it all too quickly anymore...
And that would be with both sides...
Like what I think really matters, and would hours of research actually get to a real truth.
I didn't even try to go back to the original transcript of the interview...
Just the fact that S was heavily involved back then, with his history,
makes me cringe.
Just soo many wormholes into the base of our global society, backed by big money,
the whole of our society has been weakened.
I guess that's what happens when those with big money feel they need to "make corrections"...
Based on what they feel is correct and what direction they want it all to move to.
Sociopathic behavior, and they don't mind if there's suffering to get to their desired destination.
Complicated is correct...
And this will make you astonished even more...
It's another reason why I will be looking at shorting this bounce...
Sadly, I feel it's going to get much, much worse.
And as usual, the common citizens will suffer.
The Ukraine is such a beautiful region, full of resources and potential...
So sad.
Notice the article starts with "the overthrow of the elected"...
And it's a conversation with CNN... Do you think CNN would dare air this today?
I don't know, and I have to just stay away from the ugliness the elite bring.
Above all, I am not trying to make or take a political stance, just trying to expose information.
https://justice4poland.com/2014/05/28/soros-admits-responsibility-for-coup-and-mass-murder-in-ukraine/
Sometimes one of the best things to do is to look back on the news articles of 3-6 years ago, and then compare it to the present day narrative. What is happening now is bad, really bad...
In 2014, the Ukraine HAD an ELECTED Government. It then went through a "revolution", which put in a corrupt, puppet government, under the control of the elite and the west. One of the main benefits of control of the Ukraine is the warm water, deep water ports on the Black Sea, which gives access to the Mediterranean. The puppet government made sure Putin didn't have that, because they wanted the European energy supply to come from their Saudi buddies.
Read up on reports from years ago about how corrupt the Ukraine is... Read up on how much money has been pumped in...
Yes, Putin is a tyrant and a dictator, but he didn't want to destroy the Ukraine, just wanted to show a bit of force and then get a surrender and cooperation. He went in with a little wooden mallet, but they fought back.... Now he's going to come back with a sledge hammer.... This will get much, much worse.
NICE !!
Keep it up - keep killing it -
And usually, if you stick with your tight rules, and bail on anything "moving against your comfort zone"...
It'll keep rewarding you.
I gotta find time -
this weekend, to go through that SMLP release and reports...
Time to get ready...
The 24 hour bottle rocket is losing upward thrust.
It's gonna shock the longs how quickly it falls as fear and the locking in of gains comes right back.
Time to look at In the money puts 2 weeks out.
Just to monitor, SPY at just over 436 when this was written.
15 minute
Sometimes one of the best ways to
Properly research a current situation is to find articles written 2 or 3 years ago, even 5+ years ago,
Which at that time had no problems telling the facts, and then take that information about a subject,
And compare it to the current narrative the mainstream media is currently running.
If you do this, you tend to get a different perspective on exactly what is happening...
and forget about searching through Google, because the facts that don't fit today's narrative have long been buried.
Actually, I am a member of
TT's private board... It's thriving,
More posts than ever, solid knowledgeable posts.
So don't go there
China and Taiwan...
China is just watching and waiting,
China uses time as an ally.
It knows the western world feels time is an enemy,
"If it isn't occurring here and now, it's wasted time"
If China would have already gone into Taiwan, it would have been thought of as a "world enemy"
If China waits longer, as it all crumbles further, it can eventually go in and then be considered as a step to help save the world from completely turning to rubble.
I look back at this marked post
And I gotta laugh...
So much said in one simple line.
The writing has been "on the wall"
For a long, long time...
Futures now down 100 on the SPX.
No need for caps or red print...
No need to shout it out, your record is clear...
Good job.
Sometimes you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink,
Ohh well.
Best approach is to ignore those who previously criticized, instead of the,
I told you so...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167758305
IWM told us in Dec and January that the ground was getting shaky, and the Fed also knew it could not stop the tsunami...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167415157
We knew the forward picture was ugly, we knew the story could easily be a repeat performance of the second half of 2018... We now have seen repeatedly that any bounce the Bulls try to muster gets crushed.
It's going to take basing and time to try and work through the overhead resistance,
And we're nowhere near "good basing signs".
GLTA
Replying to myself...
20 minutes into the day, I could tell the weakness was
blatantly evident and we had no fuel....
Such a bad sign when it is recognized soo quickly and
The no confidence vote quickly becomes almost unanimous.
I still don't think the general public realizes how much of
a waterfall it has all become....
If you do a bit of research,
and I am sure you are quite aware, the
US has done PLENTY of "provoking" over the past 25+ years...
To say the least...
Checking into the "true history" of the Ukraine, Crimea, Bosnia,
Syria, etc... is not hard to do.
To write it off as "Putin has gone mad" is soo very wrong.
It's always been about the deep water, warm water ports on the Black Sea and access to the Mediteranean... money and commerce.
It still astonishes me that Moscow is on a latitude which is 300 miles north of Winnepeg Manitoba.... and that is central Russia... WOW.
There's a part of it all which can say it can go back to the very elite,
central bankers, the petrodollar, the creatures of Jekyl island, etc...
but this is not the forum for all that.
It's all noise to distract from the baseline market -
Yes, it can cause liquidation breaks, but we're in sell mode -
Big time, and distribution.
And once again, we see
The market burst out of the gate like...
Ummm.... Mr. Ed.
Pathetic... Watching for another spike to short.
As I had written last week -
"For years, the longest bull in history, the market would "forgive" the Bulls who had bad timing, by rising back up to their entry, and then going above, etc...
During those years, the Bears had to have excellent timing, or they would get crushed.
Now we know THE WORST" thing that could happen is now REALITY.
A high debt and high inflation environment, where the Fed is handcuffed....
ANY move they make is going to be devastating.
There is no new, sweet stimulus coming, the Fed has clearly announced it is going to turn off the spigot...
We know NOW, for a couple of months, the shorts who have had bad timing on their entry, have seen the market have mercy. The downward channel becomes more and more evident daily...
The good game plan is now to watch for spikes on the 15 minute chart, and short them....
Plain and simple, and unemotional.
MAKE SURE you are confident of the trend and that you have a full game plan BEFORE going into the trade."
I originally became aware of
RECON through a former co-worker -
I worked with him back at S&P - I was a senior consultant with
Standard and Poors for almost a decade -
doing research, breaking down the 10Q's and K's, working with finance subscribers on how to use our software to get the data needed, etc...
This research report, or one similar, with estimates of the basin size, is what had caught my attention...
"the Kavango Basin represents a potential 120 billion barrel opportunity, as confirmed by world-leading geochemist Daniel Jarvie."
https://www.valuethemarkets.com/analysis/investing-ideas/reconafrica-the-key-to-unlocking-120-billion-barrels-of-oil-potential-in-the-kavango-basin
But anyway.... just thought I would let you know about it - and
the oil/gas sector becomes more and more of a puzzle everyday - for many macro-econ reasons.
Just haven't had the chance to go
back through your posts and analyze your picks...
I can already tell there's some "solid gems".
Plenty of "uncertainty" everywhere, between the Fed, the debt,
the Ukraine, etc....
Good investors, or should I say swing traders know those items are all
"just noise", which can cause liquidation breaks, one way or the other.
Problem is with the uncertainty, comes higher option premiums, which makes the game tougher. Sometimes it's easier to stay on the sidelines, until you see that solid divergence, or "out of balance" scenerio.
Tell me what you think about RECAF. There actually is a board here on Ihub about it. From my understanding, it could be one of the largest oil discoveries ever found... in nowhere Africa.
I would think those "in charge" are just looking to prove it all and as soon as a XOM, Chevron, or BP takes a solid stake... it'll launch again.
Chances are high that it will be a top M&A candidate, somewhere down the line.
Locked in the gains on the puts....
better to take 'em and avoid a bounce, than to be Wishin'...
In at 5.62 and out at 10.38
That'll always work.
And now to just wait for another sniper opportunity.
short term, as within a week,
back to 438 -
mid term, back to 430 - by the end of Feb...
Before April 1st to below 410
I'm puzzled that individuals can look at this SPY chart,
which is REALITY, and
Then make demeaning comments - "clowns, amateurs, they're gonna learn a lesson".
ANYTIME, ANYONE posts insults.... or says "you don't understand" or "watch and learn", etc....
Or those who are not willing to explain their stance and position...
It's a good indicator that they are not someone you want to follow.
We're not oversold, we're not seeing the power of a coiled spring come....
At least not one which is ready to produce a 10 day rally back up to 475.
Long term
For years, the longest bull in history, the market would "forgive" the Bulls who had bad timing, by rising back up to their entry, and then going above, etc...
During those years, the Bears had to have excellent timing, or they would get crushed.
Now we know THE WORST" thing that could happen is now REALITY.
A high debt and high inflation environment, where the Fed is handcuffed....
ANY move they make is going to be devastating.
There is no new, sweet stimulus coming, the Fed has clearly announced it is going to turn off the spigot...
We know NOW, for a couple of months, the shorts who have had bad timing on their entry, have seen the market have mercy. The downward channel becomes more and more evident daily...
The good game plan is now to watch for spikes on the 15 minute chart, and short them....
Plain and simple, and unemotional.
MAKE SURE you are confident of the trend and that you have a full game plan BEFORE going into the trade.
Here's the QQQ...
Hoping someone comes to the rescue....
https://tenor.com/view/kid-panic-drowning-water-stand-gif-5235658
Puts bought -
SPY Feb 25th 2022 448.000 puts
@ 5.62
portion buy
looking to add tomorrow, if spike continues.
Keeping an eye on QQQ also.
The QQQ's and the overall breadth
just aren't acting like the "coiled spring" you're hoping for... IMHO
Breadth
I still think the QQQ is looking like the Elliot pattern more and more - just no upward power - and nothing great to look forward to...
Check a QQQ 5 year chart to see how high we're climbed -
In the meantime, do these look similar or what !!?!
We're now leaving point B... moving down.
QQQ
Elliott
The QQQ is concerning here....
The bounce over the past month is weak and losing even more strength.
I don't think the masses realize it yet. Volume isn't coming through because many just don't realize how precarious it all is.
They think that, "Ohhh, a bounce is coming - anytime now"...
Blinded by the 12 year, longest bull in history.
Going back to my Elliott wave post and that pattern -
We're very close to seeing us pick up volume and speed to the downside, IMHO....
Instead of just hanging in a range like we have for the past month.
We're ready for another leg down, just like occurred in 2018.
There's just no reason to own the indexes, and playing specific "good future" stocks, like you are, is the best route.
One of the BEST things about capitalism
is occurring as we speak....
These greedy, sleazy, overly rich business owners actually
having to struggle at finding good workers -
and these good workers actually seeing OPPORTUNITIES to move to higher paying jobs, to demand higher wages, to become these
"more wealthier AVERAGE folk" that you want.
That just doesn't happen in Commieville or Socialismburg.
Figure it out, America....
And it infuriates me to listen to what our "leaders" are trying to spin....
Like in Canada, with the truckers, and Justin Castreau trying to say the
truckers are terrorists, and anyone giving them a sandwich is aiding terrorism..... and he's trying to "help families"...
Ughh....
Unbelievable....
That's such a sad statement -
Thinking socialism would be a "good thing".
And before you even try to say America is halfway there,
do some research on what socialism truly is -
Our definitions are completely different.
Our thoughts of what society would be like are completely different.
I am talking about where an oppressive gov't controls EVERYTHING,
and you get only what they deem you need....
Check into what the shelves in stores look like.
There's no such thing as farmers who own their own land or anything like that.
I am talking where ALL machinery is state owned -
and even the cattle are state owned and labeled as "production vehicles"...
The F'N main stream media has sugar coated how vicious communism and socialism really are. Because the main stream media is controlled by the rich.
IF you want "MORE wealthy people", as you put it...
more wealthier AVERAGE folk...
Communism / Socialism and more gov't control is the LAST thing you want.
There is no such thing as capitalism "run amok".
I could go on and on - back to work.
It is soo sad how ignorant and gullible America has become.
Notice I said ignorant and gullible, as in uninformed and inexperienced.... not stupid.
I had posted weeks ago,
About how we're in the same situation as 45 years ago...
No easy way out, and they better dust off the Volcker playbook,
And take the painful steps.
Or maybe the plan of the psycho's is to kill capitalism and go with socialism...
For the good of the people.
There you go...
THAT is the proper way to think...
In ugly inflation, dollars spent is increasing everywhere,
But from a units purchased standpoint, we lost ground and contracted.
I agree...
It's going to show further confirmation that the consumer spending,
And consumer confidence is contracting. I'm expecting we're ready to head back down to test the recent lows and possibly down to SPY 400 area.
This bear is just getting started and these 1 or 2 day short pinches are even losing their strength.
Here's the SPY chart of 2018
If you recall, the second half of that year is when
Powell and the Fed started to tighten...
I see similarities between now and this chart, but in my opinion, the economy is soo much weaker here.
Do we see a bit more consolidation here, and then another leg down?
To maybe SPY 390 ?
I think we could be sitting at the mid October/mid November point of 2018 here...
2018
I had posted this on the SPY board
A few weeks ago, and I still feel the pattern is valid,
When compared to the current 2 year SPY or QQQ charts.
Yes, we may see bounces of 2 hours to 3 days, but eventually the Elliott pattern
may very well "play out".
We've got to remember how much debt is out there and how "fragile" the consumer is,
Even with low unemployment and rising wages.
The consumer is the majority of the GDP, and once confidence cracks, spending quickly slows.
Did we just fall from point B here, the last couple of days?
Elliott