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I am very perplexed by the downward trend of the stock in light of what has been nothing but good/encouraging news over the last month.
However it is so value priced that I plan to add another 10,000 shares tomorrow.
Thanks for the clarification JB.
Not to belabor the point but post #1549 indicated that additional funding will be needed for "ramp up to production". I take that to mean production of the thin film solar cells. JB any comments?
I agree that the manufacturing side is a complete pain ... but as I understand the posts Natcore will produce the thin film using Kodak's infrastructure; or will they let one of their JV partners come in and take it over? Clarification would be appreciated.
I'm not certain that we are through the Valley of Death; still no contracts or sales. In fact it appears that there are so many irons in the fire that the real challenge will be to stay on top of everything and not let an opportunity escape. The fly in the ointment is, as Dr. Flood implies, having the infrastructure in place to meet all of the demands; which in turns means an infusion of cash. I don't think that will be a problem but when an 800 lb Gorilla shows up on your doorstep you have to be careful or they will destroy everything.
I think the next 6-10 months will be critical as Natcore struggles to deal with a new experience i.e. changing from a start up R&D to a manufacturer and all that entails.
Steady nascrazy. A lot of good news but as Tom Scarpa recently said they are still a R & D company and that means modest gains for the next 6-12 months. However once they get sales rolling they might become a giant in the marketplace as the end users climb on the low cost, high efficiency bandwagon.
Yes, cash flow is king in this economy; but don't ignore the big picture. Natcore is now a JV partner with two of the biggest players in the solar cell business. Having a presence in Europe and China puts the company on the world stage. As soon as they actually do get product flowing into the pipelines, the share price will rocket upwards. Another bonus to the new JV is partnering with a world leader in solar cell conductivity, leading to new and better cells and we still have the tandem research all to ourselves. It might take another 6-12 months for this to all settle down into productivity and profitability but it will be well worth it.
JB, I take it the author of the first report got your literature on Natcore. He is looking for companies to promote via his articles.
The mainstream media has no clue about solar power and simply parrots what is fed to them by lobby groups. However it will clearly take a breakthrough like a tandem cell to get them on the bandwagon. Like you, I am taking a long view of Natcore's potential and don't expect to see the real profit for at least two or three years. If we can hang in there and become a "player" in the solar panel field next year we should be o.k. long term.
The EIA has determined that clean technology will only account for 14% of the world's needs by 2035. Solar is deemed to be a minor part of the picture as it is too expensive and with not enough output.... i guess no one at the administration has any clue about the tandem cell; or the LPD process. These people are the same ones advising the government on its policy!Wow!! Talk about your head up your .... Natcore needs a BIG breakthrough in the next year to make the world sit up and listen. If they can demonstrate that the AR box truly does achieve a 50% reduction in cost with a 20% increase in efficiency then we should be able to make the world beat a path to our door.
Let's all hope that China doesn't use the "N" word...nationalization. Just look at Bolivia as an example of western companies doing all the hard work and then getting screwed over by the socialist government.
Interesting point you make about the Chinese company filing the patent. Maybe I'm missing something but if the patent is filed under the name of a Chinese company and not Natcore does that not mean the Chinese company has the rights to the technology; or at least equal rights to use it as they see fit?
Vankent's point is valid. The Chinese have demonstrated a complete disregard for international law in all forms. They will do whatever they think is in their best interests and to hell with the rest of the world. I agree that the management is sharp and will do whatever they can to protect their intellectual property but sooner or later the Chinese will screw them over. I just hope that the tandem cell is not covered in any way by the JV and Natcore gets whatever additional funding it needs from Western sources.
Open question. Does anyone know if an infusion of significant cash i.e. $25-50 million would accelerate the timeline for commercialization of the tandem cell? If so, when would it happen?
Very nice job Dom. It hits all the right notes.
JB is to be commended on his hard work. My only comment is that the letter might be a little too long. Most execs don't want to spend 20 minutes reading all the links. They will forward it onto someone else and ask for the executive summary. Perhaps you could do this ahead of time and then it will be read by the right people. Regardless of my comments, you are doing an outstanding job. Thanks.
O.K. $1.45
No way Natcore would sell all of its business for $200 million. The upside is worth billions. It might not become the new Microsoft but the tandem cell alone is worth over $500 million. I think it would take at least $8-10 a share to generate any interest from the board.
$1.12 is very realistic but a little low. How about $1.43. The Elliot Wave theory says we are very close to the start of another bull market so I'm hoping for big things with Natcore over the next 12-36 months.
Thanks JB. Ir looks like September could be a big month for Natcore.
JB, I thought that they had already sent out samples through Micro Tec. Any idea on how many samples and manufacturers are being targeted?
Any concern about an investor from the EU in these troubled times?
I think the article highlights two issues: 1)the solar power industry is the new tech boom; 2) if you don't get your product to market asap you will be tossed aside in favor of a newer, better, cheaper technology.
This reminds me of the computer bubble on the 80's. lots of volatility but also lots of opportunity to get rich.
As I found out by looking at another stock, there is a lot of b.s. being printed by people who actually know nothing about the subject matter. There is so much disinformation being posted it's tough to make sense of it.Some do it hoping to convince people of their own position ie. short or long and others do it out of a sense of importance without justification.
Natcore is a great example of looking at the product and the financials, making your own decision and ignoring the commentators. Financials not great re: cash flow but it is a start up company. However they have the technology to become a leader in the industry, very good management and a sound plan to bring the product to the market. In a weak economy small tech start up companies are ignored. Most investors stay away because they usually burn through cash and take too long to show a return on investment. They usually keep cash flow going by selling more and more of their stock and further dilute the company's value until they could almost never make enough profit to make the company attractive to further investors.
Again, Natcore is not going down this road. Yes, they will have to provide warrants to future capital investors but by that time the product will be on the market and the company's "true" value will be evident and then the speculators will jump on the band wagon further pushing up the price and making all of us very happy investors.
7.5 GW of panel inventory is a problem for the manufacturers. Natcore's technology is truly "disruptive" in this setting. Someone is going to take a bad beating if a company comes out and starts to produce the Natcore panels for 60% of the existing cost. It looks like an avalanche waiting to happen.
Thanks JB.Interesting strategy.
Does anyone know if the Pluto cell is the same cost as the proposed black cell?
Somewhat scary to read that another company already has a "shaded" cell in production that appears to equal the output of the black cell. Does the Natcore cell use silver or copper?
Solar cell prices are dropping and Natcore is still not selling any product. Can they be competitive in another year given the rate of decline in prices?
I would love to hear from anyone with answers to these questions. Thanks.
Great article. Thanks very much for the post.
Natcore's response to their shareholders is very refreshing. Not a lot of companies would take the time to answer these questions.
I really wish Natcore could look at private funding from a North American source. I always worry about the Chinese and their lack of business morals. They have been known to steal a company's patents and dare anyone to sue them; or look for a way to slightly change the design and market their own product. Does anyone know if Natcore is exploring North American investment? If the product is that revolutionary people should be lined up to get a piece of the pie.
Very detailed questions. I hope they provide a timely response. One other question: how soon does the company expect to generate a stream of revenue from any/all of their products? Thanks.
I have faith in the product but being overly cautious when those around you are catching up is a bad strategy. I'm not advocating bringing on a lot of debt but they need to find a way to sell more of the machines or license their AR process to bring in some cash flow to make the market sit up and pay attention.
I disagree that the company has solid financials. The balance sheet looks nice but the cash flow and income statements are full of red ink. A lot of investors realize that the balance sheet is nice because of selling stock and not profit. Cash flow is king in this economy and years of red ink will scare off all but the hardiest of investors. You do not want the price to keep going down as the regulators will suspend the stock if it gets below a certain limit and that is a death knell for a start up company.
We seem to be on the verge of the new green "bubble" and slow but steady does not win that kind of race. Just sell more product and generate some buzz instead of feeling smug about getting another new patent.
That is what I am talking about. The government will fund new technologies so long as they believe they are "groundbreaking". Natcore would seem to qualify but no one else in the solar cell industry is talking about them.I believe the company made a mistake in taking on a Chinese partner. I have read a number of articles where Natcore said they had requested funding years ago but were rebuffed and had to look elsewhere for support. I think the government is slapping them in the face in awarding funding to competitors that do not have foreign connections. I think its time to look into some form of funding that will expedite their technology into a viable commercial product. If Natcore doesn't get off their butt and push their products into the marketplace they will end up on the outside looking in on the solar cell boom.
Great to hear that the company believes it is on the right track but there are so many new companies in the solar field that they might be too cautious in their approach. They need to make a splash in some way with announcing sales of their machines or new orders etc. They will be left in the dust if they aren't more aggressive in pushing their technology. I also agree with the comments that the tandem cell seems too far from any real development that it might be surpassed by some new technology. It won't surprise me if it gets shelved in a year or so; one student involved in the project? If the process is so amazing why hasn't the government stepped up to the plate and funded it with a clear message to OPEC that they will be an afterthought in 5-10 years. C'mon Natcore, roll up your sleeves and push push push.