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The fact that you admit that you don't have any shares in the company speaks volumes as to your true intentions.
Do you really think anyone on this site believes that the laser process JUST melts parts together. Based on your childish oversimplification the current method for making a solar cell is to take different parts, throw them in a furnace and when they melt together you have a working solar cell.
I referenced the need for doping the cells and you completely ignored that part of my comment.
BTW thanks Captain Obvious for telling us that an application for a patent isn't a patent and that the process can take a long time.
One last point. I'm not here because I have blind confidence and haven't done my DD; unlike yourself. I've been critical of the company in the past but remain a shareholder because there has recently been a lot of activity with other companies, unlike past years, and I believe, just my opinion, that there will be a contract signed in the not too distant future that will make the wait worthwhile.
I have no idea why you are on this forum if you haven't read any of the background material regarding the process. I am no engineer but I can state with confidence that the Natcore process IS NOT "melting parts together". The tone of your posts are very similar to "bashers" on other forums. Throwing out demands that the company explain their entire process to you in terms that a lay person can understand is meaningless. You would probably need a master's degree in electronics, engineering or a similar discipline to begin to understand the "entire process". All I know is what I have read on this forum and the releases provided by the company. I don't claim to understand how the process works but I believe the laser aids in the "doping" of the cell which is an integral part of the manufacturing process and crucial to the performance of the cell. The fact that they are seeking a patent on the process should tell you that it isn't melting parts together like some kind of weld or soldering job.
On the plus side, the fact that someone wants to spend the time and energy to post comments like that on this forum signals that someone wants to drive the sp down; which can only mean that it is ready to take off.
I believe one of their posts a few months back confirmed that they can manufacture a cell using their process. However the next step is to get a panel prototype up and running in a factory setting and then putting it through "real world" tests to make certain it is commercially viable. They are working on that as we speak.
If successful they must be able to get their process into a production facility and work out all the bugs and then they can start to earn some money. I have no idea how long that will all take but it I'm hoping for really good news by the fall/end of the year.
NXT will not become a manufacturer; despite Provimi stating that there have been some inquiries along those lines by the same parties thinking of retaining them as consultants.
A much better business model to license and sell the chemicals. No large capital investment and faster profitability.
A lot of interest in their process now that they have a complete system that is cheaper and more environmentally friendly; not to mention the laser process and all back contacts. It seem as though they are a lot closer to striking a deal to license the process. A very long time ago I posted that no one would sit up and take notice until they had working models in place and could demonstrate a complete process that was technologically sound and commercially viable. This latest joint venture is another step closer to that goal. Who knows? Maybe actual contracts in place before year end.
Same old, same old. He doesn't address the pp in any fashion and that still gives me cause for concern. I'm not selling and might be buying if it goes lower as the upside is so huge BUT a lot of shareholders will lose faith pretty quick if there is no real news in the first quarter of 2015.
A slow day so I thought I'd inquire as to whether anyone has any info on the pp. In the past it would be sold out and even oversubscribed within a month. No news yet and the sp keeps dropping. No really large positions giving up and as far as I can determine no selling by insiders. However it makes me a bit nervous that we can't quickly fill the pp. Anyone have any news from management?
Finally, something that warrants a comment. Someone posted a while back that the manufacturers were waiting for Natcore to eliminate the need for the high temps to pique their interest. Mission accomplished. Still a lab result but nonetheless a major step. I wonder why they did this in the lab when the German engineering firm was supposed to do this for us; unless they were only retained to look at mass production once the lab figured it out. Still months or longer until it gets out into production so I expect the sp to fluctuate a lot for the next little while until they sign some sort of contract and revenues trickle in. Hopefully its within 6-10 months but the timeline is anyone's guess.
That sounded like one of his older letters/e-mails. Nothing about the progress with the German company and nothing about the JV with the Australian company. The sp drops on no news so something "new" would be appreciated.
Very big news!! Finally some sort of contract for the company. no idea when the revenue will come in but its a really great start.
not sure if Natcore has to come up with some financing or are earning their keep by supplying the technology. We should see a lot more interest and a nicer sp in the coming weeks and months.
Thanks for the info. good to know we can still offer a better, cheaper cell... down the road.
Very interesting article. Weeks for a joint development agreement and 3 months (+/-) for a joint venture agreement. Still think it will be closer to year end if history is any indicator of "success".
A lot of new opportunities... but not holding my breath on the solar array idea. Still a lot of research on the laser approach. What isn't clear is whether Natcore will go to market with the improved efficiencies without the laser approach or if they will not sell anything until it is a package deal. Provimi stopped short of saying that signing these agreements would bring in any money with their execution. I suspect no money until the "package deal" is ready to roll and that might take another year or more. No idea of the timelines for that but with Natcore nothing happens quickly.
Nope. Same old, same old. However the company does seem to be marginally creeping forward. At least they have, in the last 12-18 months shown the following: the bsi can be converted into a solar panel using conventional methods; the AR boxes can mass produce a solar panel; an existing company has produced bsi panels with (barely) marginal efficiency. The use of lasers looks like it can enhance the efficiency and if they can get it integrated into a complete production line, will eliminate the need for any furnaces making it the most "green" method in the world to produce a solar panel AND with a greater efficiency than anything else on the market. I already posted that the company seems to be playing catch up and is looking for a major leap ahead of the competition. IF and its a big if, they get the efficiency ramped up to over 20% AND IF the lasers can be used to eliminate the furnaces, then they should have a product that will create a major buzz and could capture a significant share of the market. Given the current pace of progress no one should hold their breath... longer than about 6 months.
I've been thinking about the constant new processes and doing some research on the internet about solar cell efficiency. Sunpower sells a commercially viable cell with a black surface and a mirrored underside and has the best solar efficiency at 24% Sound familiar? I don't know if they require furnaces for their production but it seems like someone already has a similar technology. I'm certain Provimi or someone else would pooh pooh the competition but bsi doesn't sound earth shattering when someone is already using a similar technology. I don't know the cost but I suspect that is where Natcore would say they have a "potentially" better product. It also explains the constant "research/new processes". In essence they are behind the times and need to get ahead of the wave. A process that uses no furnaces and delivers at least 24% and is cheaper to produce would be commercially viable and Natcore would find buyers for the bsi cell. However they have to ramp up the research or else they will be struggling to keep pace with the competition. I would love to hear an appraisal of the Sunpower cell from someone knowledgeable about the industry.
I agree that the constant introduction of new methodology is past tiresome and crushing the life out of the investor. However if you look at it another way, no one is suggesting there isn't a market for Bsi, and if they get that breakthrough that's been promised for the last 4 years, there are enough new projects coming on stream that we need not worry about revenues. We seem to be closer to commercialization than a year ago but the progress is at a snails pace. I sold a bunch of Natcore when it was last over a dollar but I think it will go much higher by year's end. New announcements about the thin film and tandem cells will keep the market interested until the bsi cell is optimized and contracts are signed.
No idea when that will happen but maybe we all should ride the waves and sell and reinvest for a year or so to see short term profit. JMO. DYODD.
While there may be a lot of reasons for insiders dropping shares, it seems odd that they would do so for small amounts and after the recent good news. Provimi selling 10,000 is puzzling as the recovery has got to be pretty small regardless of his ACB. I'm also confused by Lundin's activity. He appears to have passed on his warrants of 237,000 but then exercised them as well.
I think we need to hear some positive news about contracts; or perhaps another "milestone" in efficiency or something similar for the sp to get back to a buck.
Not sure why the drop in the sp unless its just profit taking. Nothing but good news the last few weeks. I suspect it will rebound above a dollar again when the company announces the next step in commercialization.
Interesting news. Provimi has always said that the manufacturers can tweak the efficiency but now we have a better idea of the issues and a solution seems very close. The fact that they are thinking about/working on a joint agreement on the intellectual property suggests that it will result in much better efficiencies i.e. 18-19%. Longer life, better efficiencies and reduced costs all scream winner!
While I'm as pleased as anyone that there are "real" results don't think we are in the clear. There is a long way to go before any contracts are signed and we all see the expected payoff. Frankly, I think the sp will go up to a very nice figure by the end of the year but the real goal is the tandem cell. Getting the Bsi into production will do a lot for the skeptics to become believers and once Natcore announces they are "close" to putting a tandem cell into production the sp might double in a few weeks from whatever price it is at that time. The tandem cell is a "game changer". It could revolutionize the energy industry and make us all energy self sufficient. Any hint that it could truly happen within a year would have everyone scrambling to own a piece of the Natcore pie. Way Way bigger than First Solar. Fun and exciting to dream about....
I don't think anyone can predict the amount of the contract. That's for Provimi to decide based on so many factors its hard to consider how long it might take to do a deal. I think the test manufacturer needs to do more work to get the cell up to a commercially viable efficiency so as to attract buyers. A lot of end users will be reluctant to buy a product unless it has been proven in the field so i suspect it will take up to 6 months before we see any significant revenue but once the market is aware that the product works and IF the cost savings are passed onto the purchasers in some form, we will see a LOT of interest in Natcore.
BSi has a lot of advantages over the current product; it is much more environmentally friendly, has the potential to be more cost effective as it doesn't require a moving panel to follow the sun, can be used in all light conditions etc. I suspect there will be something of a pent up demand for it as the word spreads and late this year and next year could see a HUGE jump in the sp. GLTA.
Chuck clarified the "twice the efficiency: a while ago. He was referring to the thin cell and the tandem cell. The black silicon is the "half the cost" part of the slogan. Not actually half but a quarter at this point in time. As they improve the process and implement the laser into the entire production line the cost will go down even further.
Very exciting to see the promises actually come to fruition. I think Teq said it would be 4 more months before they can get things into production and sign contracts but it wouldn't surprise me to learn that the cash will flow in much sooner as the industry gets wind of the savings and wants in on the action.
Thanks for the clarification. It seems the clock doesn't start until they get something in writing. Let's hope that day is sooner rather than later.
Teq could you clarify your comment about the laser etching. Is your timeline of 6 weeks the testing phase or is that the time it would take to produce the cell? I suspect it's the former but would appreciate clarification.
If so then we are still several months away from any contracts. They are only now installing the laser and I haven't heard anything about once installed there is a 4 month window (6 weeks to test and 10 to install) before we see any revenue. Probably this fall or late this year before, potentially, any contracts/revenue.JMO.
I think it all goes back to one of Provimi's letters when he bemoaned the fact that they needed much more capital to speed up the development of the cell. It sounded like he was trying to drum up a partner with deep pockets and some vision of a very large payoff in two or three years.
They hired another consultant for the same reason last year. The sp went up as some pumpers from the penny newsletters jumped on board and then nothing and the sp went back to below a buck. I hope the company actually has some sort of a carrot to dangle in front of the institutional investors otherwise they will be seen to have trotted out the same dog and pony show as last year and will be given the bum's rush.
Actually it is interesting that the company feels the need to pump up the sp. I thought they had what they needed from the last pp. What does an inflated sp get them; the ability to utilize warrants at a higher price? I'm all for it but find it curious.
Thanks for the info. I wasn't aware of Scarpa's comments. Now some things make more sense and explain a lot of the delays.
Interesting comments about the manufacturing process and the explanation for the delays. Where did you learn about these issues and who advised you that Natcore has to develop a process that eliminates all furnaces before anything can be commercialized.
Nice report. It confirms what a lot of us have said for years i.e. solar will eventually replace the current fossil fuels. My only complaint is that Natcore seems more intent on producing better lab results than actually getting ANY kind of product to market. Every time they suggest that they are going to commercialize their product nothing happens and all we get is a PR suggesting they have suddenly discovered a new process which is better than the last and it will be a world beater when it comes to market.
I have heard all the arguments about new technology needing time to work out the bugs etc. but a LOT of companies are pushing a LOT harder than Natcore to get their product to market. First Solar was on Cramer's t.v. show talking about a new way of manufacturing solar cells that they expect will reduce costs, better efficiencies etc. Now who do you think will capture the market; First Solar or some Chinese company yet to be determined with an unproven process. SO glad I sold a large chunk last year.
I'm curious as to when you would consider it a "bad thing" for a Director to sell his shares. Two, Three, Five all selling at once?
for the record I never said a Director has to put out a news release saying why he is selling his/her shares. I only said that a promise of good news/contracts followed by no news and then a sell off by a Director is not something that leaves a positive impression.
Natcore expert seems to have left the building. No response to the many criticisms of his suggestion of "special" knowledge. While negotiations with the Chinese can and do take a long time and are frustrating for N.Am. businesses, there has been so much silence from the company that one has to question its status. A Director dropping over 100,000 shares is not good news, regardless of the reason. Maybe nothing in itself but coupled with the suggestion that Natcore would sign contracts by this quarter and no news on that front, it lends itself to a sense of rats etc.
We need a REAL news release about dollars and cents and not more platitudes about "soon", in the coming months etc. to quell that sinking feeling in your gut.
Trying to stay positive but already thinking about another year with no contracts in hand.
I agree with Teq. No one has any inside information, just theories and hunches. By his syntax and misspelling i believe (just my opinion)that he isn't from North America.
BTW on a side note readers of these boards should be cautious about what they write, good or bad. I follow another junior mining stock and the company recently issued a warning to the posters to cease and desist in "bashing" the president and employees of the company and asked for the real identities in case they wanted to pursue their legal rights. Almost instantly the board dried up and perhaps not uncoincidently, the transactions dropped to a fraction of its normal daily volume and has remained low for the past week. Don't listen to anyone that purports to have special information, good or bad, and do your DD.
Not good to see insiders selling on the open market. If Natcore expert (a misnomer if ever there was one) was correct they would not be selling.
Maybe trying to get in a capital loss before the tax deadline? One can only hope its that simple.
Tidbits?? Tidbits?? we were told by "natcoreexpert" that the company would announce a contract with the Chinese. I realize that he/she is not a company executive and doesn't have any inside info but any suggestion that Natcore is finally going to show a revenue stream from bsi is like holding waving a lolipop in front of a big kid...very cruel when you yank it back and tell him to go on a diet.
I'll wait for the new letter before making any further comments but I'm glad I sold a chunk when it was over a buck.
As Ted Knight said in Caddyshack Well... We're waiting!!
I meant to ask you earlier but forgot... do you have actual knowledge of a "blackout"for the board and executives? How did you find out about it?
Yes, just my opinion as indicated by the last 3 letters of my post; but contracts have been promised before, many times, with no results. I'm hoping that Natcore expert is correct and I will never have to refer to that issue again.
I think we would have had a news release by now if the company was intending to visit China or sign some contracts. I read that one of the Chinese solar companies was really in trouble and might declare their version of bankruptcy. No idea if it had any connection to Natcore but it does indicate that the entire solar cell industry is still very fragile.
At this point I think we have to assume that bsi is a no go and if you want to hang in for the long haul it will be to cash in on a quantum dot flexible cell or a tandem cell that can be commercialized. JMO.
Does anyone have any further news/insight into a trip to China? Is there any news about the sample wafers and how they were tested by the Chinese? Any "scuttlebutt" about other companies testing the wafers?
While I agree with your comment, I think a lot of people are waiting for something more than a trip to China before jumping on board. I still believe in the concept and the promise it holds but not everyone is as patient with their money. Do you think a contract for the figures mentioned in your earlier post i.e. $20 million will see a significant upswing in the sp above $1.85?
Personally I believe the really big jump will happen when and if more than one contract is signed as that will signal industry acceptance of the process and really big numbers.
Has Mr. Scarpa said he is going to China and if so how did you find out about it?
Funny how a post says great things will happen in March and the sp drops.
Is there any basis for your revenue projections i.e. information from the company, or did you just pick the figures out of the air.
what would be the basis of the revenue i.e. licensing, sales of chemicals, sales of Ar boxes etc.