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DD...re Q3 numbers.....It all depends on ones expectations.....The only thing I'm looking for is continued GROWTH Q over Q.
Sincerely,
Jas
ExPat...re Analyst projections......Although I believe that Wave is more than capable of hitting some enormous numbers ONCE the Trusted Computing concept takes hold.....WE ARE NOT THERE YET! As far as I'm concerned....those projections...especially the numbers for Q3 and Q4.....are NOWHERE near reality based on what has been publicly disclosed. We have NOT had any indications that the company has closed deals that would translate into higher upgrade rates. Minus the upgrades....all we should be expecting is a continued increase Q over Q...but NOT the dramatic increases in his short term projections....IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
Point....are you serious??? If the deals were CLOSED....and substantial...we would hear about it in some format. To think otherwise is well.....you can fill in the blank. Having said that....I sincerely believe that the company is very close to hitting some out of the park.....but lets not count our chickens before they are hatched.
Sincerely,
Jas
Expatriates....re large shareholders selling to sit on the sideline.....I don't know many of us who own well into the six figures are selling and sitting on the sidelines....not at this stage of the Trusted Computing Revolution...especially after spending over 12 years for this point. If this were the case...I can guarantee you that the volume would be over the seven figure mark....fwiw. Today's action was..... well.........on a whopping 189,480 shares (as per Nasdaq)
Sincerely,
Jas
ExPat....nice trading......It would seem to me that the "MARKET"...as you said....is EXPECTING lower revenues than Q2.....What do you think of the sell off on little volume??
Sincerely,
Jas
Encino...the problem with stocks that are not traded with lots of volume is that a few sells can really drop the price tremendously. The way the stock is acting...it's as though people are expecting the total revenues to come in BELOW what we did in Q2....that would be less than 6.4 million. As Expat would say...THE MARKET IS EXPECTING REVENUES TO COME IN BELOW Q2.....
Sincerely,
Jas
Encino....More than was generated last quarter...
Sincerely,
Jas
Escrow...re analyst projections....There is NO reason to expect based on what we know...ie...no major announcement regarding ERAS sales last quarter... that the numbers are going to come any where near the 7.7 that is on the table. Where and HOW the analyst came up with that figure is beyond me. What I want to see is continued growth with increase in the burn rate.....why you may ask do I want to see an increase in the burn rate....simple....We need to spend more to take advantage of growing opportunities. Forget about profitability for the short term in favor of expanding opportuntiies...which will require additional costs. I would be more concerned if the company was NOT increasing their burn...because that will translate to me that the slog has much further to go.
Sincerely,
Jas
Orda....re PWC...a few points to consider....
1) PWC decided that using TPMs were very important for their security needs.
2) PWC decided to spend additional cash in purchasing Wave's software INSTEAD of using the included software in their Lenovo computers.
3) The initial rollout was in the neighborhood of 60,000 units. During the recent NSA show...it was revealed that their plan is to rollout the TPM activations to 150,000 units.
4) The IT department at PWC is far more experienced than the average fortune 500 company. They were able to configure their system to use TPMs without the need to purchase ERAS.....but this is and will not be the case for the vast majority of IT departments out there. Wave's management continues to believe that at some point....PWC will eventually purchase ERAS....
5) PWC's decision to use TPMs is important in that they will suggest to their clients the need for them to also use TPMs for their security needs....consultants and all that....
Sincerely,
Jas
Working capital......I'm not sure how to answer your post. There are some people here who want to see sks eat his words. The fact that we have not heard anything since the Sept. NSA show...(PWC converting 150,000 seats into using Wave's software...NOT ERAS...at the moment) does NOT mean that progress is not being made. The sale cycles are taking longer than we would all thought. Comparing Wave to a software security firm is not fair and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of Wave Systems and Trusted computing. What we are talking about is a paradigm shift.....IT TAKES TIME....but once the ball picks up speed.....it will spread like wildfire. Instead of worrying about lack of news....I'd be paying more attention to see if ANYOTHER company is getting Trusted Computing CONTRACTS that Wave is missing out on. Forexample...PWC ...a LENOVO client....removed the software their TPMs came with and spent money purchasing Wave's software. Is that happening with Wave????
Sincerely,
Jas
Glo....re last deal....I know its hard....but I think Pwc coming on board is rather a significant client....wouldn't you?
Sincerely,
Jas
ExPatriates...re your Q3 estimates......I think your guess of 6.7 is a figure that's not too far below mine of `7. Re your comment that the market does not look 6-12 months ahead...well lets just say that we agree to disagree. Finally.... re the issue of whether or not Wave is or will be a leader in the Trusted Computing sector....Lets just say that there will be a number of winners in this space and that I believe Wave will be one of them.....I think the NSA's decision to come out and publicly confirm what has been saying is rather a significant event.
Sincerely,
Jas
ExPatriate....You stated that the Nov. 8th report is paramount in regards to the direction of the share price....Lets hear about where you think the numbers should be given the following parameters:
1) Revenues in Q2 were ~6.4 million
2) Revenue generated by OTHER companies in the TRUSTED COMPUTING space...it's important to compare apples with apples.
3) The stock market predicts what the landscape will be 6-12 months down the road....so...in your opinion...does the money being allocated to this space (TRUSTED COMPUTING) increase...or decrease over the next 6-12 months??
Given the above...where do YOU think the numbers should come in at for Q3??
Sincerely,
Jas
Good morning CM..Hey that's the least I can do given the awsome DD that you and Awk provide to members of this community!!! I almost felt like breaking out with 13 days of GLORY when recounting the story of Col. Travis
Sincerely,
Jas
Crashing Waves....Interesting set of posts this morning....LOL After 13 years ....one would think that some people would become less transparent. ...but wait...I digress.
Your alias was created on 10/01/10.....and then on your third post...you stated that you were NEW to the whole Stock Market...so far so good. There is however a major problem.....most people who are NEW to the whole stock market as you claimed....don't go around asking on their very first post...."When will th new institutional holdings be updated?"
Now for the setup...your second post states that you thought that there would be more sell outs...ie a decreased institutional holdings percentage. ...and here it comes......% ownership correlates to evaluating stocks future price. Wheew.....there ....the seed has been planted! Ok...lets just stop here for a few seconds before starting down the path of memory lane again.....Reming=d me again what the institutional holdings were a year and half ago when we were below .90??? Did that accurately reflect future stock performance???? Remind me again HOW MANY stocks that were held be a LARGE number of institutions that IMPLODED in march of 2009?? Does C come to mind....what about Goldman....wait wait...I've got it....what about GE??? The point is simple......The percentage of institutional holders is not the GOSPEL when it comes to FUTURE stock performance....it simply pertains to who has jumped on the bandwagon based on PAST performance. But that's the problem...isn't it?? What kind of past performance metric does one use when evaluating a NEW but growing sector....growing in the sense of AWARENESS...but not necessarily in money spent in the sector....the sectoe being that of TRUSTED COMPUTING....now lets resume our trip down memory lane again...
All of this leads to today's very interesting set of posts....now remember that you told all of us that you were new to this whole stock market thing in a prior post....INSTITUTIONAL HOLDINGS...ITS GOIN DOWN LIKE BIRD SH*T.....Oh me OH my.....what am I to do???????? Now for the second set up....Nov. 8 will be my deciding point....then the + .01 cent earning line is drawn into the ground....kind of reminds me of Col. Travis drawing the line in the sand at the Alamo.... Let me once again slam on the brakes on this trip and make the following prediction ......WAVE WILL BARELY BREAK 7 million...if we are lucky for Q3 and will not post any earnings for the next FEW quarters.....THERE....I've let the cat out of the bag As revenues increase...I fully expect management to increase their sale staff to increase their revenues through other venues that they are currently unable to address.
If anyone thought you were done....they did not have to worry...because in post # 200344..in your response to TKC....You unloaded with quotes from THE STREET.....Oh my...the same folks who PRIOR to the last CC came out and said that they feared Wave would become insolvent but a few sentences later in their article stated that Wave had ENOUGH assets to pay off their obligations....You see...one can have it both ways....Insolvency and being debt free!!! One more point I find interesting is that BOTH you and Gucci brought up THE STREET this morning...any relationship exist between the two of you
Thanks for the MEMORIES....after 13 years....it never gets old
Sincerely,
Jas
Re next week....why down??? Could as easily be an up week....Keep an eye on the institutional holdings. Slowly...but surely....word is getting out about Trusted Computing. The stamp of approval by the NSA should not be discounted...IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
Re street estimates....7.6 million???...are they for real??? Not expecting more than 7-7.2 million.....let's keep it real.....
Sincerely,
Jas
re The street .com.....Bunch of *astards....They trash the company prior to the last CC with a manipulative report suggesting that somehow Wave was in danger of defaulting and then in the same report saying that Wave could pay off its debt by its asssets. Now they come out with this report.......what BS
Sincerely,
Jas
Kev.....so let me understand.....Pwc...threw out their tpm software they had with their Lenovo pcs and SPENT money to buy Waves software......because they did not want to waste money.....ok...I understand
Sincerely,
Jas
Jakes dad....Nice insight to the prejudice that exist within the Gartner Group. It helps to explain their ranking of Macafee as a "Leader" in their Magic quadrant for Mobile data protection in the same month that the NSA comes out and tells the world that you MUST use the components of Trusted Computing to combat the increased cyber threats.
An interesting dialogue is taking place between the Gartner rep......... and Steven Sprague. Go to
http://blogs.gartner.com/johnpescatore/ WHAT THE HECK IS TRUSTED COMPUTING?
and click the comment section
CAN ANYONE SAY AGENDA?????
Sincerely,
Jas
dig...re PWC purchase of Wave's software....PWC is a LENOVO client....They removed the infineon software and replaced it with Wave's. Since Lenovo does not have a contract with Wave...their client...PWC....had to pay close to full price.
Sincerely,
Jas
Dig...re Wave's price to sales.....That's one of the reasons I believe that talking about a Wave takeover is way too premature. We need to build up sales prior to any such discussion....IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
Good evening Alladinator....re September....I can't say what will or will not happen. However, there are a few things that we already know that the general market may not.
1) The accounting firm (bought 60,000 units of Wave's software and got rid of the software that their PCs came with, is none other than Pricewaterhouse. We know this because SKS disclosed that info a couple weeks ago during the webcast to the investment conference. We also know that Pricewatehouse is presenting at a number of different forums regarding Trusted Computing. It's not too much of a stretch to think that Wave and Pricewaterhouse may do some sort of PR.....if not a PR...there should be some expectations of an article or two.
2) Lockeheed Martin seminar in Nov....once again...Wave and Pricewaterhouse will be presenting to a CLOSED forum of Lockheed Martin employees.
3) NSA show....the big INTEGRATORS will be presenting...WHAT DO YOU THINK THEY WILL BE TALKING ABOUT???
Sincerely,
Jas
Weby...re TRUE VALUE...The current bidding war between HP and Dell underscore a principal that has been lost in regards to the worth of Wave.......If you have assets that WILL have pay off in the future....then the current bottom line does not come into play.
Sincerely,
Jas
Re...3 PAR...the bidding war continues....Dell had increased their bid this morning to 24 and change...HP just came out and increased the bid to 27/share. Amazing bidding war for a company whose share price was ~9/share a few weeks ago and who isn't profitable. HP and Dell are not paying attention to 3PAR's bottom line as much as they are to the PERCEIVED value of their assets....something to think about when we talk about the true value of Wave.
Sincerely,
Jas
Mig...I really hesitate in answering your question...because it's WAY TOO EARLY to be even entertaining this possibility. Having said that...it most likely would take a majority vote of the shareholders.
Sincerely,
Jas
Alea...I agree with your post 100%.....Personally, I don't believe this is the right time for management to even consider a potential bid. Instead of talking about potential takeout deals....I would rather concentrate on Wave's fundementals and are they increasing in a manner that would benefit her shareholders. September is shaping up to be very interesting.......We will FINALLY be joined by the behemoths in regards to the necessity of Trusted Computing.
Sincerely,
Jas
Alladinator....re shares....There's always a price that I would say...."humm...interesting...."
Sincerely,
Jas
Vacationhouse....Intersting article....not only because of the recent deal between Intel and McAfee...but the current bidding taking place between HP and Dell in regards to 3 PAR. As I understand it...and I only have a superficial understanding of 3 PAR....but ....they are involved in Cloud computing in regards to storage. (BTW...they have NOT generated a profit) Well the achilles heel of Cloud Computing is SECURITY. Utilization of TPMs would alleviate a lot of these security concerns. One would think that the shorts would be somewhat concerned about their position in the current environment Having said this....I'm in no way suggesting that there will be a bid for Wave at this time.
Sincerely,
Jas
DD...re Goldman....what's your point??? That the stock is under accumulation by some big boys.......THIS FACT IS NOT NEWS! Your posting is nothing more than unsubstantiated HYPE!!! imho
Sincerely,
Jas
DD....Well of course something abnormal happened from the Longs perspective.....but NOT if one understood the basic concept that the MMs had to go short big time to provide the shares for the Russell rebalancing. They had to cover those shares and they were not getting them through the normal trading activity. A bear raid was performed which created a snowball effect with Margin selling as well as additional shorts creating a stampede for the exits......well guess what...the fuel for that stampede has been exhausted.....therefore we saw the runup on friday. Now...does this mean that we will go straight up to whee we were a few weeks ago WITHOUT news...NO!......there will be days when we will be up and those when we will be down...all in a attempt to reach a steady state. However...the general direction will be UPWARDS......because they still have shares they will need to cover. Why do they need to cover...easy....because with the passing of every quarter...Wave's position within the Trusted Computing Revolution is getting stronger and stronger.
For you or any other LONG to suggest that maybe the boogyman know something that we don't is the height of hysteria.....which of course is your right.
Sincerely,
Jas
DD...With all due respect....Do you have any idea as to what conditions were required to shake the tree over the past two weeks? ALL OF THIS TALK ABOUT BUYOUT OR TAKEOVER IS RIDICULOUS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
Sincerely,
Jas
Re SHARE PRICE....to all of those people who ran around like chicken little......ANY QUESTIONS ON HOW THE MARKET WORKS????
Sinceely,
Jas
What comes next...BUYING PRESSURE...I'm looking for that to start either tomorrow or early next week. Any other questions?
Sincerely,
Jas
Re Takeover.....Are you people kidding me??? The security world is FINALLY seriously talking about hardware embedded security and we're talking about selling out?? Have YOU people even bothered to look at the NSA-TRUSTED COMPUTING conference web site and look through its agenda and speakers??? Finally...the giants of the tech industry are coming onboard Wave's vision...and we're running scared and talking about selling out???? ARE YOU PEOPLE KIDDING ME???
Wavemaster and Snackman posted a Lockheed Martin seminar taking place in Florida during the first week of Nov. HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE ACTUALLY GONE TO THAT SITE AND READ THE MATERIAL??? Why would WAVE and Pricewaterhouse be presenting in a CLOSED environment (ONLY LOCKHEED MARTIN employees will be allowed in at 80 % of the sessions)? The vendors are NOT there to sell their products...they are there to EDUCATE the emplyees of Lockheed Martin. I'll ask again....WHAT DO YOU PEOPLE THINK WE WILL BE EDUCATING THEM ON???? IMHO...I believe that Wave is ALREADY working with Lockheed Martin and this presents an opportunity for Wave to educate the workforce on the next generation of security products that they will be using internally as well as selling to the government. Other than that...I can't explain WHY Wave would be at such a forum.
Sincerely,
Jas
Re Wave....Ok...some of you folks REALLY need to CHILL BIG TIME!!!
The fundementals of the company have NEVER looked better than they do presently. What we have seen since last tuesday is a large SHORT attack whose main goal was to free up large amount of shares. Think back a few weeks shortly after the Russell rebalancing. Do you remember the strange closing we were experiencing? Large blocks would be traded as the last trade of the day. IMHO...these trades were an attempt to START covering their short positions. What became obvious was that they were not making a great deal of progress in terms of the number of shares that were being sold to them. We then had a stock news letter restate their sell rec. and claim that they were ahead by 10-15% eventhough they failed to mention that since their sell rec...the stock had appreciated from 2.90s to the mid 3.30s. Next came the awsome journalists over at The Street .COM who proclaimed that Wave was one of FIVE stocks in danger of defaulting EVENTHOUGH they mentioned at the end of their article that Wave could pay off their debt by using their assets. Now I know that I'm simply a country doc....but how exactly does one default if one is capable of paying off ones debt with the current assets?
This leads us into the CC last Monday. The Revenues came in exactly where I and others thought they would....between 6.3-6.5 million. This represented a good Q over Q growth. Some people were openly talking about a 7 million dollar quarter......but even those individuals could not have been SO disappointed with the results to suggest that the drop from 3.10 down to 1.80 is justifiable. The company has demonstrated good progress and continues to develop it's business model. So what exactly happened in the last 1.5 weeks to justify a share price of 1.8? IMHO....what has happened is simple....We have experienced a concerted BEAR attack in an attempt to create a snowball of margin selling. THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAS HAPPENED IMHO! There are MANY people on this thread who have had to either trim their positions significantly or scramble to send in cash to save those margined shares. THIS IS A FACT! What surprised me was the sheer amount of margined shares there truly were outstanding. When one combines the weakness created by additional shorts hoping on board with selling by Wavoids who were sitting on healthy profits (.40-.80) it's no wonder we find ourselves in our current position.
What remains however is a predicament for the shorts. There have not been enough shares squeezed out to allow all the shorts to cover. At this point...I seriously doubt that there are many shares left that can be squeezed out of the longs. Can anyone guess what comes next???
Sincerely,
Jas
Doma...interesting price target.....At those levels...you've discounted the significance of the Automaker deal....the Pricewaterhouse purchase of Wave's software....the NSA's decision about renaming its upcoming conference...Trusted Computing.....the fact that Wave does not need anymore PP unless they are presented with a large opportunity...INCREASING revenues on a quarter vs Quarter basis...Recruitment of one of the most important individuals in the industry regarding SEDs...inclusion into the Russell index funds....and a healthier balance sheet without a PP getting them to that point
Sincerely,
Jas
EDIT....I'm glad you've recorded a healthy profit...never wrong in doing so...I just have a different opinion regarding the next leg regarding the share price
Re Pricewaterhouse....For months we have been debating who the accounting firm was....a few days ago...SKS announced that the accounting firm is in fact PRICEWATERHOUSE......Interesting that Pric....will be at the upcoming NSA show...wonder what they will talk about?
Sincerely,
Jas
Mig...Re where is the selling coming from? Now...that's a really good question. Last week....we got a pathetic article written by aso called journalist at The Street . com....who did nothing more than a hatchet job when they included Wave in an article about five stocks that could default ...but then went on to say that Wave could pay off their debt with current assets. Then on Monday...we got the Q2 report which came in exactly where I thought it would....between 6.3-6.5 million. It demonstrated good quarter over quarter growth as well as year over year growth. Can any one honestly say that after Wave announces it's best best quarter ever...that the stock deserves to go from 3.1 down to 2.16?? This has nothing to do with the last CC or Q2 results...this has everything to do with a conserted short attack that then was reinforced with forced margin liquidations. My heart goes out to those who have been forced to sell some of their shares....but this will end and the stock will be coiled so tightly going into a month (Sept) that seems to be a set up for Wave.
As far as today.....Two of my price points have been triggered to BUY additional shares....I have additional orders in place to take advantage of this obvious manipulation of the share price.
Sincerely,
Jas
Details...details
Jas