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Why are they offering a discount for the early adopters? It isn't like they can use the early success stories as a marketing tool because none of these companies want their competition to know what they are doing. The O&G industry is full of smoke and mirrors so no one really knows what is really happening. It is a good ol boy network that you either are in the inside of, or totally on the outside with no way to see in.
If I talked with management, I might not say the nicest things to DC. From what I have read, he may be very smart. But after being an investor here for 3 years, I can say with little doubt that he is a fish out of water in his role as CEO. If he were "really" smart, he'd find someone else, who is more seasoned and respected to run this company for him.
I hope the ducks are looking good and all lined up ... I am ready for a big 2011.
A1
As 2011 approaches, so do higher oil prices. If we cross over into 2011 with the price per barrel at $90 or higher, it may stay above that mark for a long while... and from there, it would be too easy for the oil market to push for the next hurdle which is $100/b
So what?
As the price per barrel increases, the industries that support the oil industry will become all abuzz. Drilling in North America will surge if the price per barrel looks like it will stabilize above the $90 mark.
Longs here would likely see more contracts for ERFW technology as the oil companies start to spend more money to make more money. A higher oil price allows them to become more creative and risky with new technologies. A jump, sort of like a paradigm shift, is about to happen... if ERF has its ducks in a row, it might actually be in the right place at the right time.
In just 18 months, ERF's technology could become the new industry standard. Don't blink.
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People either get really chatty or really quiet when they are nervous... this board is full of the really, really quiet people.
Monday morning QBs are a plenty. We all wish that our average price was here at the bottom but it isn't. We aren't going to feel good until we can take the snorkel out and breath fresh air when we are in the black again.
What are the odds that this company becomes CFP either this Q or next Q or even some other Q in 2011?
Now the reason for trying to figure out the odds of CFP is to decide what kind of gain we will have from here. If the company goes CFP, I am guessing the Market Cap could be around $30M which puts the PPS a little under 10 cents. If the company is going to anticipate becoming earnings positive in the near future, then we can start looking at PE ratios. The sky is the limit right? No, of course not. What is the market size and how big could ERF's slice of the pie become? Right now the competition is SATCOM... rule out the far offshore platforms and rule out the really sparsely positioned holes, these will remain SATCOM customers... now consider that there are 500,000 holes in the US. What number of those land in areas that ERF covers now and will cover in the near future? At $2500 -$3800 per hole per month, it doesn't take too big a slice to make this cash cow "MOOOO".
So measure the upside and the downside... it looks pretty good... but don't jump all in until the front office presents us with a PR that has real numbers in it... at that time, jump on because this thing is going to turn hard and fast on its northerly trek.
Good points about ERF...
1) O&G industry is prosperous and active right now
2) ERF's service is in demand and competitively priced
3) ERF has a sizable footprint already established
4) ERF's technology is first rate
There... that's my "RAH RAH" for the day. Nothing to do but sit around and wait for the next PR.
A1
It is strange. It looked like the volume was drying up yesterday... then we get fluff (a PR that has no top line or bottom line numbers in it as opposed to a meaty PR that has real numbers in it). Today's fluff should have had little to no influence on the price and it hasn't, but the volume kicked in today... why? Was the fluff the last straw for some longs that decided enough is enough because the pattern of PRs is stuck in a fluff mode? The price hasn't changed so there are just as many buyers thinking that the worst is behind us... but with no price change, who cares? If 10 million shares traded today with no price change, its a non-event.
Two things make this stock go... real numbers or if DC announces his replacement who would have to have a pedigree... a proven one.
A1
News today... first segment of a new network up and running with contracts. Smells like meat but there are no dollar signs in it.
What kind of revenues can come from a project like this? $1M or $4M per year... we have no idea and the front office isn't dropping too many hints in this PR.
It's news and it implies more revenues are coming as they will be completing the rest of the network over the next 90 days.
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If it is the company selling shares, they would have to disclose that... but I think that you may be on to something as I have similar suspicions. Is it possible that they are paying vendors with shares... in which case, the vendors would be immediately dumping them to protect themselves from the trend that we longs have endured. If it isn't vendors, who else could be dumping? Could it be former employees dumping everything after they have been let go ?
I still think at least 50% is write off motivated but either way, the pressure has been consistently on the down side...
When you get right down to it, no matter what the profile of the recent seller is... the company needs revenues to start rolling... nothing else sets a northerly course like a sharp increase in receivables. So get the contracts signed, get the networks built, and start sending out some invoices.
If they were to announce something big enough to cause the company to suddenly get out of the red and into the black, how high does the PPS jump? 10 fold... 20 fold... 30 fold? The doom and gloom would be replaced by green grass and high tides quicker than the frog can mount his pet goat. (that is Y board humor for the boys that have been around long enough to know the frog).
Book'em Danno.
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Been trading this stock for 3 years... the MMs games have been a consistent problem for me. I have lots of friends and family in on this one; now that I see we have hit or are close to the bottom they have been fishing for low priced shares with me. I have been monitoring their buys as the MMs stir the pot and play games. The actual bid/ask isn't what is on the screen and that seems illegal to me.
I am not is a buying mode this week, but that may change. We are probably done for the year with PRs... so I have pulled the lines out of the water.
Just looking for the last pieces of the puzzle to give me a better picture of ERFWs future. I'd like to know the bottom has come and gone for good, so I am going to wait for 2011 to see if we get some news with real meat on the bone to get me all crazy excited again.
On my way to the principle's office... my 3rd grader has done something... again.
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Take a look at these Form 4s... you will see a footnote number one that indicates the shares are part of a compensation plan.... this is how DC has been paying his people.
http://investor.erfwireless.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1330336-10-20
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I see the list of shares owned by officers... most of these shares were issued for compensation.
My question is, have any of them pulled money out of their pockets and bought some... DC bought open market shares back in May... is he the only officer to do this?
If they believe that announcements were coming next year as you seem to, I'd become a believer if I saw some shares bought by other officers of the company. It would send a message that the PPS is undervalued.
With the threat of more dilution, the statement that the PPS is undervalued isn't really true. The PPS is where it is because that is the price the buyer and sellers have set. The MMs are guilty of stirring the pot. They are crooks. I have had orders in for a quarter of a cent higher then the ask and still no trades. Usually a trade goes through less than my bid and then as you say, the MMs raise the ask above my offer.
On the flip side of that coin, when or if we get meaningful news, the MMs will play their games to move the PPS up quickly. With a low daily float, they can allow the spread to stay wider than normal and stir the pot to get the action moving.
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CFP this quarter would be great... but I have a real hard time believing that revenues are going to double from one quarter to the next.
As far as businesses surviving the recession... seasoned CEO's didn't make empty promises. They were smart enough to bit their tongue and let the numbers speak for themselves. Besides, the drilling numbers are up, which leaves no excuse for DC not to show growth in Q3.
You say that DC and his boys have put their money where their mouth is... other than shares as compensation, have any of them written a check to buy stock here? I'd be curious to see if any have some of their own skin in the game.
Good point about the officers not selling their shares... Jones used to sell but I haven't noticed any being sold for some time now.
You speak of new developments and positive results in the coming year... positive results would be a new development around here. I sure hope that you are correct. What I fear is going the rest of the month with a fluff PR or worse, nothing new from the front office... that would cause us to find a new bottom.
Carry on.
A1
So you have set your sites on Q1-11 for CFP... why not Q4-10? If it isn't Q4 then DC has mislead us ... again.
By my guestimations, ERFW needs to increase their top line by about $7M/yr to go CFP... that is real close to a double from last quarter. Somewhere around $1.1M/month total should be the magic number. If that happens Q1-11,are we in "great shape"? Don't forget that if we aren't CFP in Q4-10 (very unlikely after the Q3 results), we have to do a little reality check here. For years now we have been sweeping deceitful, misleading, far fetched, untimely and blatantly false statements by the CEO under the rug. With the PR pipeline nearly coming to a standstill, its as if the CEO has crawled under the rug too.
It is hard to ignore the big elephant in the room; how long can he hide under the rug. We all know that he is there. Is he going to come out with the big summer announcement that is many months overdue? Or did he want us to believe its going to be next summer that a major announcement is coming ... remember the end of the CC when DC said a major announcement that will change the O&G industry is coming before the end of the summer???? My summer tan has faded long ago. Is he going to come out from under when ERFW turns CFP and try to baffle us with all kinds of excuses and clever diversions? Is he ever going to look at this company and realize either he or his upper echelon aren't doing their jobs? I'd like to read the upper management's reviews to see who isn't performing. I'd like to see what the upper echelon has to say about DC's performance. Something isn't right and it should be fixed before we run out of rope.
Maybe, instead of a new CTO, DC should be looking for his own replacement. Is he man enough to stand up and admit he was wrong? Is he willing to do what is best for us and himself as the major share holder? How many times have we heard that the inventor wants to run his own company? It never works. Lab rats should stay in the lab. Experienced management should run the company. Dumb or smart, most rats chew off their own tails to get out of a trap... maybe they should just learn their own limitations and in this case, ask for help from a seasoned professional. This is getting ugly.
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Seller are just about gone???? I think more people are going to be selling to write off the loss. Not to say we couldn't see some positive movement with news but the pressure to sell for the tax benefits will be an undertow that will be constantly working against us until the year's end...
After the New Year, that undertow should be gone, and we should see a more true valuation of the company reflected in the PPS.
Net net ... for those holding or buying now, we should see some growth between now and the Q1-11... if ... if they can throw us a bone with meat on it.
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I am not sure why that is the "only explanation" ... could it be that the investor confidence has been eroded by fluff PRs, late filings, false hopes suggested during CCs, a "major finance deal" that never transpired, and lack of revenues????
So you ask, "how low is this going?".... all the way to zero if the company doesn't perform... why would people want to own a dud? A dud is all that this has been so far...
So why invest in it? B/c if the company does actually make some money and become earnings positive, the upside is huge from these PPS levels. Upside vs downside... with some real numbers (not in PRs that are all hype, but ones in a 10k) investor confidence could do a quick 180 and there will be lots of money made here.
Been waiting like a fool on the wrong street corner for a long while... my ride's coming.
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We should all spoil our wives; here is a stat for you... Married men live longer than single men; conversely, single women live longer than married women. So do something special for her because she is adding more years to your life.
Been playing penny stocks for over 10 years. Made some and lost some on the way... but I have don't follow the rules or old adages.
1) Don't expect to buy in at the "bottom". If you look really closely, you will see that the number of shares sold at the true bottom is most often a very small amount of shares. Instead, always try to grab shares near the bottom.
2) Some say that we should "only buy on the way up"... if everyone followed the rule, once a stock heads south, it would never bounce. So don't be afraid to buy on the way down, as long as you think it it near a bottom.
3) "Buy on the rumor... sell on the news". You can lose your shirt following this one. If I bought on every rumor, I'd be homeless. If everyone sold on the news, there wouldn't be much of a run headed north. If the news is top shelf and there isn't likely to be any more news that can add to the news right now, sure... time to sell. But make sure that there isn't going to be more news soon... Momentum is about perceived investor confidence. If the confidence is going to continue to grow, hold on that news. Sell when investor confidence wanes.
4) Don't buy on the second hand suggestion... take the hint from someone and go do your own DD. Without DD, you might as well be pissing you money away in Vegas. The odds are stacked against you without good DD.
As far as ERF is concerned, this stock is way undervalued right now, because investor confidence is in the dumpster. There are several reasons for it. A) Contract announcements don't include revenues B) The SLB contract is a dud, C) the CEO has mislead us with fluffed PRs, and D) the front office has implied that a major financing deal is coming but it never did... financing at this level would be death for us as it would likely be majorly dilutional... BUT...
The company has survived and if the numbers start to turn, the likelihood of success jumps significantly. Boot strapping is the way to survive the tough times... if ERF can turn CFP in Q4 (assumption is that it didn't happen in Q3), this stock soars.
The business plan appears solid. The leadership may prove to be shaky but let's see what the numbers say this week. More importantly, let's see what the Q4 numbers say in the EOY report next spring.
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If this company can turn CFP, then the PPS jumps to somewhere between 35 and 50 cents. With CFP comes the opportunity for more traditional financing options and it builds investor confidence by huge magnitudes... But the big picture needs to be better defined.
When CFP hits, the better question is what kind of earnings can this company post with some financing in it pocket? What is the market potential and what is the market share that ERF can grab a hold of? I see some big numbers here.
The hump is CFP. That is what we need to get into the history books. Now to come back into the present more.... If the Q3 numbers are CFP, this things rockets to 30+ cents overnight. If the Q3 numbers are signaling that CFP is coming (CEO said last spring he thought CFP would be here by the end of the year) then what will be the jump in PPS... I am guessing somewhere between 10 and 18 cents. Now if the Q3 numbers look like all the recent quarterlies, a new bottom is coming, somewhere around 1 to 1.5 cents.
Q3 numbers are due Monday... longs know the history... this company gets more quarterly extensions than not ... so don't hold your breath on Monday. The better news is that they don't always need the full 5 days the extension gives them... so figure on seeing numbers next week.
My key stat is total revenues... if they are well above $2.75M for the quarter then we could be headed for CFP real soon. If it hit $4.5M in Q3, than CFP should have been hit in Q3.
Biggest clue that a good number is coming in the Q3 report... go back and read the PR from early August... ERF unexpectedly retired some debt... where did the cash come from? I am guessing that it was from collected revenues. Read this quote from that PR... "Since that time, the company has worked to repay that debt, while continuing to execute its business plan for overall revenue growth. In particular, ERF Wireless Oil & Gas Services, the company's oil and gas services division, continues to gain substantial sales momentum and is currently working to finalize contracts with multiple customers, including some high-profile Fortune 500 companies."... that smells of new revenues. ERF wouldn't be paying off debt with money needed to pay the utility bills... something changed in August....JMHO
This is why I am looking for a good Q3 and a nice bump in the PPS next week...
GL to those still fishing for the bottom prices.
BOL to the longs.
A1
Sometimes I wonder why the MMs post a Bid and Ask price... they don't mean squat. I have seen the bid way under an actual bid and I have seen trades go for less than bids that others have in place... it is an uneven playing field that has the investors' heads spinning.
Looking forward to greener pastures.
A1
Below is a copy of a post that I just put on the RB board. As MBD pointed out, the old boards used to be full of constructive discussions... nothing wrong with being old fashioned.
Is CFP coming this year or not? Has anyone figured out if they have enough contracts to turn the corner or are they still short in gross revenues? It seems very likely that ERF isn't there yet as it hasn't announced any new contracts during the last quarter that could increase revenues... that means... if the SLB contract is still mothballed or officially terminated, the only way it happens is with a new contract or two... conclusion, we have to see new contracts well before the end of the year, if this company is going to turn the corner before 2011 gets here. "Well before the end of the year" would be like "right now!"... It takes months to build the back end of a new project; so unless they are working on it right now, the revenues won't hit until next year.
So I am back to original question... do they have enough revenues in existing contracts? If they don't, DC is way off base predicting CFP in Q4.
In rough terms (I am very open to input on this), I figure that they need to be pulling in somewhere around $18M per year to turn the corner... that is $4.5M per quarter... if the next 10k has anything over $3.25M in gross revenue, then I'd say they have a shot. Anything less than that and it turns a long shot into an improbability.
I am thinking ERF needs one or two contracts to make this work... I hope the ink is drying on one today and all the back end is ready to go. The market is ripe, so let's get a move on.
JMHO
A1
Interesting... you forecast an easy double... if CFP comes out in the numbers, either Q3 or Q4, it is an easy 5X, maybe even a 10X from here. This company is so undervalued, it challenges my sanity.
A1
I couldn't agree more that there is likely an opportunity to buy in (or average down) between now and when the 10K comes out... however, I am not convinced that the timing is right to buy in right now.
BOL
A1
Sure there are always people around but there isn't much to say.
It would be nice if the front office had something to say but they don't seem to be communicating very well.
With the MMs showing the bid under 2, I think it is ballsy to be buying in right now. I think the MMs are going to stir the bottom of the pot soon, so good luck picking off the low hanging fruit.
A1
4 more weeks until the 10K... it had better show improvement, otherwise CFP isn't likely in Q4, which DC eluded to in the last CC. If he isn't right this time, he should move south across the border.
Until then we sit, we wait, and we read the garbage on the boards.
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Interesting to note about yesterday's 35 middle mile grants/loans... I can't find one that is a publicly traded company.
I was hoping to see a publicly held company was involved to see what kind of surge it had in its PPS and volume.
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The next topic that needs addressing is the SLB contract. Where do they stand in selling the division? Does the contract have a deadline that allows ERF to go and sell directly to the North American vendors at regular retail pricing? They made that announcement that said ERF could do some of its own marketing but when can ERF cut SLB out of the loop. If SLB doesn't sell soon, will they keep the division in-house, which means they would likely put some money into building out the networks which in turn would start generating revenues for ERF?
Someone needs to make an announcement soon and shed some light on the subject.
Friday's dip doesn't worry me if the PPS returns to 5 cents on Monday's open. Last Friday it traded at 5.7 on low volume that didn't last long either.
Revenues, revenues, revenues... nothing more and nothing less is going to move this PPS north. If CFP is coming in Q4 there has to be more revenues coming... either from existing contracts or new ones.
Let's hear it front office.
C'est la guerre.
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On page 9 of this FAQ document http://broadbandusa.sc.egov.usda.gov/BIPportal/files/BIPRound2FAQsUpdated03022010.pdf, you will see that September 30 is in fact the deadline... interesting to note that it also says the decisions should be made by September 10th. This makes me think that the announcements won't be coming in the last week of September...instead somewhere in the next 2 weeks... tick tock.
ERF has 3 applications in that I can find. The grants and loans add up to $30.7M... if we just get one of these 3 projects approved, the least amount received would be $5M... that is enough to boost this lame PPS 2 or 3 fold. If we get all $30M, 10+ fold is likely.
link to the 3 applications (pages 646-468) http://broadbandusa.sc.egov.usda.gov/BIPportal/files/Broadband-R2%20SEARCHABLE%20PDFwPNR-2010-06-01.pdf
And if we get none of this Obama cheese, (which isn't out of the question because TX and LA are Republican states)... we have CFP to look forward to in Q4.
Looking for oil prices to rise up again... that will help us down the road.
GL
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I am in the same mode you are... I added based on two things... DC says CFP by the end of the year... I believe him. Secondly, that PR about cheese coming before the end of the September... even if ERF picked up a fraction of what they applied for, this stock heads north quickly... so here I sit on an even bigger pile of shares, waiting and wondering if DC is going to deliver. We have from now until March (Q4 results will be out with the EOY report) to find out if this thing is going to sink or swim. My gut says we have already hit bottom and its gonna be winner so I averaged down and now I sit ... and wait... week after week... waiting for something meaty from the from office.
Misery loves company ... so pull up a chair, put your feet up and join the waiting game.
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I don't have to look at their history... I have waited for each 10Q for the last 3 years... so I am all too familiar with extensions. To me, there is no excuse. An extension says to me that the CEO doesn't have control of the helm. He can put blame anywhere he wants but it still points at him when the dust settles.
I look forward to the day that the extensions are not the norm.
ERF typically gets the 10Q out within days of the extension so I will be looking for it each trading day until it appears.
What I am looking for is a sharp increase in O&G revenues and a better bottom line from the previous quarter.
Looking for traction.
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Why was it 'expected'? I am not following on that one.
FYI- DC (that is Dean Cubley the CEO) said in the last shareholder CC that he anticipated the company becoming CFP in Q4... but at the same time, he tap danced about why his same prediction a year earlier didn't happen. I really want to believe that he learned his lesson the first time and wouldn't dare make a prediction like that unless he was absolutely sure it would happen... so I have been adding more to my over loaded boat full of ERFW shares.
The factors that keeps the PPS down this low is all about cash... will the company turn the corner and become CFP and how will it raise more capital to invest in new projects (more capital needed was mentioned in past CCs)... Dilution or no dilution... if there is dilution, how significant will it be? We are at 200M shares outstanding right now... DC has another 250M that he can authorize to raise money but being the largest shareholder, I think he is waiting until the PPS returns to a much higher number before he sells more shares... therein be the problem... like the chicken and the egg... can the share price jump a lot higher if the dilution is coming? Can the money be raised before the PPS goes higher without over diluting the shares? ERF needs an angel investor to step up with deep pockets, take a peak under the hood and commit to putting in X dollars for Y number of shares... but that average cost per share has to be something like 40 cents/share or higher. Then the PPS would jump, the dilution would be limited and we'd be off to the races.
Now with cheese on the horizon, maybe the company won't need any more dilution at all. If so, the PPS goes a whole lot higher.
Looking for the cheese to be served and try to figure out what kind of revenue stream it can generate. Based on CC facts, I figure the company needs to add about $7M in annual revenue to become CFP. Anything more than that is gravy.
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Only one piece of this PR is useful... CFP is coming this year! No way DC mentions it unless he thought it was a slam dunk.... so if the company turns the corner from red to black, what will the PPS jump to? I bet it is a lot closer to a dollar than it will be to 25 cents... either way, most of us will be in the green, ... big time!
Hey Toto... I think we landed back in Kansas and there are no more Munchkins.
Now if we could just get a look at this 10Q.
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If they do get $30M in cheese, that says more about the company than the message boards do. The gov won't invest in a sinking ship. If they check out the books, the business plan, the management, the contracts, the customers and they like what they see enough to award ERF some cheese... well then... we are off to the races.
CEO says cheese delivery has to be before the end of September. If there is nothing this week, I am forgetting about the rest of August as it is vacation and back to school time.
When the cheese hits, this volume will go nuts and the PPS should go due NORTH.
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What is the PPS if the company gets a load of cheese?
I figure 25-45 cents no problem... let's see if we get it.
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Read the footnote #1 on this link... add the HTTP: slash slash stuff to the front. This comes from ERF's web site.
investor.erfwireless.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1330336-10-18
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Read footnote #1... http://investor.erfwireless.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1330336-10-18
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Insider buying has been limited. Look closely. The CEO bought 300K shares a while back but everything else you see is part of the compensation program.
Owned this stock for 3 years, the best days are ahead of us. The O&G division is going to make some money and create the traction for the banking industry to finally take notice of what a great service/product ERF has to offer.
Even if we don't get all of the gov money, we call cheese, the CEO said in the last conference call that ERF will be CFP in Q4... that is be the moment that we have all been waiting for.
BOL
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Anyone here know what the bashers on the Y-board are really up to?
No way someone is paying them that many hours to bash a 5 cent stock... so what is the motive? Are they born losers that lost all their money on EAG and are trying to save us from losing money here with Cubley? Is it really worth the effort they put into it?
Ideas?
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So let's see who reads this board... I know some of you from the Y board...
When does this company get the ball rolling? Q2, Q3 or Q4 2010
I bet we hit a buck this year. Once CFP is here and if it looks like it is here to stay, we are golden.
The big trick is to figure out 2 things... 1) where is the bottom? {so we can load up}.... and 2) when does this train leave the station? {so we can start making money}
If you can figure that out... EZ $$$$ ... we are looking at 16X from here.
Next PR with meat will send us on our way!
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