People either get really chatty or really quiet when they are nervous... this board is full of the really, really quiet people.
Monday morning QBs are a plenty. We all wish that our average price was here at the bottom but it isn't. We aren't going to feel good until we can take the snorkel out and breath fresh air when we are in the black again.
What are the odds that this company becomes CFP either this Q or next Q or even some other Q in 2011?
Now the reason for trying to figure out the odds of CFP is to decide what kind of gain we will have from here. If the company goes CFP, I am guessing the Market Cap could be around $30M which puts the PPS a little under 10 cents. If the company is going to anticipate becoming earnings positive in the near future, then we can start looking at PE ratios. The sky is the limit right? No, of course not. What is the market size and how big could ERF's slice of the pie become? Right now the competition is SATCOM... rule out the far offshore platforms and rule out the really sparsely positioned holes, these will remain SATCOM customers... now consider that there are 500,000 holes in the US. What number of those land in areas that ERF covers now and will cover in the near future? At $2500 -$3800 per hole per month, it doesn't take too big a slice to make this cash cow "MOOOO".
So measure the upside and the downside... it looks pretty good... but don't jump all in until the front office presents us with a PR that has real numbers in it... at that time, jump on because this thing is going to turn hard and fast on its northerly trek.
Good points about ERF...
1) O&G industry is prosperous and active right now
2) ERF's service is in demand and competitively priced
3) ERF has a sizable footprint already established
4) ERF's technology is first rate
There... that's my "RAH RAH" for the day. Nothing to do but sit around and wait for the next PR.
A1
