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Been playing penny stocks for over 10 years. Made some and lost some on the way... but I have don't follow the rules or old adages.
1) Don't expect to buy in at the "bottom". If you look really closely, you will see that the number of shares sold at the true bottom is most often a very small amount of shares. Instead, always try to grab shares near the bottom.
2) Some say that we should "only buy on the way up"... if everyone followed the rule, once a stock heads south, it would never bounce. So don't be afraid to buy on the way down, as long as you think it it near a bottom.
3) "Buy on the rumor... sell on the news". You can lose your shirt following this one. If I bought on every rumor, I'd be homeless. If everyone sold on the news, there wouldn't be much of a run headed north. If the news is top shelf and there isn't likely to be any more news that can add to the news right now, sure... time to sell. But make sure that there isn't going to be more news soon... Momentum is about perceived investor confidence. If the confidence is going to continue to grow, hold on that news. Sell when investor confidence wanes.
4) Don't buy on the second hand suggestion... take the hint from someone and go do your own DD. Without DD, you might as well be pissing you money away in Vegas. The odds are stacked against you without good DD.
As far as ERF is concerned, this stock is way undervalued right now, because investor confidence is in the dumpster. There are several reasons for it. A) Contract announcements don't include revenues B) The SLB contract is a dud, C) the CEO has mislead us with fluffed PRs, and D) the front office has implied that a major financing deal is coming but it never did... financing at this level would be death for us as it would likely be majorly dilutional... BUT...
The company has survived and if the numbers start to turn, the likelihood of success jumps significantly. Boot strapping is the way to survive the tough times... if ERF can turn CFP in Q4 (assumption is that it didn't happen in Q3), this stock soars.
The business plan appears solid. The leadership may prove to be shaky but let's see what the numbers say this week. More importantly, let's see what the Q4 numbers say in the EOY report next spring.
A1
