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After looking at Aurelius objection, I think one of the most interesting points is that they claim JPM should pay more that the 0.20% interest rate they are paying debtors on the 4$ billion they hold hostage.
Now I ask:
if debtors (A&M, Weil and company) don't pursue any more than that 0.20% (when they have legal grounds to do so) can they be sued for not performing their duties (maximizing the value of the state)?
If FDIC pays WMB Bondholders, do they get 'out of the way'?
I mean, if there was some wrongdoing by the FDIC, then I guess they have to work out to pay whatever that quantity is.
If they are guilty, I don't think then can go away paying 50% (for example).
I agree. 3 persons that know the settlement talks.
Could be Rosen, Rosen's wife and Rosen's bodyguard.
EC has to ask for the depos, as depos cannot be scheduled at any time, they had to be scheduled some days in advance.
I would hold until we get any official note.
Hi there Michael. Long time no see ya!
I have some powder waiting for some MM trick before friday... I am also watching LEHMAN in my radar, to see what happens there, looking for patterns here and there.
Good luck.
Nice activity in FF 0.093 EUR = 0.133 USD
https://chart.consors.is-teledata.com/module.chart?LANG=de&ID_NOTATION=1554182&QUALITY=BST&TYPE_CHART=STAIR&TIME_SPAN=1D&SHOW_PREV_CLOSE=1&TYPE_IND3=SST&INDICATORS_COLOR1=000000&INDICATORS_COLOR2=00FF00&INDICATORS_COLOR3=0000FF&TYPE_IND5=VOLUME&ID_TYPE_SIZE=
Coversion rate for WAMUQ to WAMPQ WAS 119:1.
But it was when shares traded normaly out of BK land.
I think that conversion rate doesn't apply now. IMHO.
About the P/Ks versus Us conversion.
I agree and think there will be a (minor) haircut for preferreds.
However, because preferreds are that, preferreds, I don't think it will benefit commons at all.
Current Preferreds :
TPS $4 billion
WAMPQ $3 billion
WAMKQ $500 million
TOTAL preferreds FV = $7.5 billion
If (for example) a 200:1 (WAMUQ:WAMPQ) conversion rate is applied:
2.7 billion WAMUQ would get converted to 13.5 million WAMPQ
It would be necessary $13.5 billion to pay commons
It means, (with a 1:200 ratio) that for any $ recovery for preferreds it would take almost $2 for commons, and that doesn't make any sense (preferreds are preferreds and should get more than commons in the waterfall due to the priority rule).
With a 1:400 ratio commons would get almost the same amount as preferreds, which I also doubt could be possible.
Thus, I think IF there is any haircut it will be with a 1:800 or 1:1000 conversion. It means preferreds would get a 33% haircut, what is also an important haircut...
So, I think commons will see something (because of that there will be a haircut for prefs) but, because of priority rules I don't see how commons can reach more money than preferreds, I even doubt they get the same quantity.
All IMHO.
POR = Plan Or Reorganization.
POR 6 -> leaves Equity out in the cold, getting ZERO.
POR 7 -> gives Equity control of emerging company WMMRC, with unknown value but billions $ in NOLs. How much of this company? Unknown. Do we have to grant releases to JPM & FDIC? Unknown
POR 7 is better, but we cannot tell how much better deal it is until we know the facts.
For more information, take a look at the iBox.
I agree. I think there will be a (minor) haircut for preferreds.
But, because preferreds are that, preferreds, I don't think it will be big.
Current Preferreds :
TPS $4 billion
WAMPQ $3 billion
WAMKQ $500 million
TOTAL preferreds FV = $7.5 billion
If (for example) a 200:1 (WAMUQ:WAMPQ) conversion rate applied:
2.7 billion WAMUQ would get converted to 13.5 million WAMPQ
It would be necessary $13.5 billion to pay commons
It means, (with a 1:200 ratio) that for any $ recovery for preferreds it would take almost $2 for commons, and that doesn't make any sense (preferreds are preferreds and should get more than commons in the waterfall).
With a 1:400 ratio commons would get almost the same amount as preferreds, which I also doubt could be possible.
Thus, I think IF there is any haircut it will be with a 1:800 or 1:1000 conversion. It means preferreds would get a 33% haircut, what is an important haircut...
I'm sure this gives the EC more ammo to use as leverage...
Ps -12% Ks -3% Yeah right EOM
Why have we dropped so much?
I saw it rebound at 25$ and now it looks as if it's recoverning (bid at 32 already)
Did someone say something bad? Haven't read nothing bad from ilene's twitts...
Yeah right. And they will gift candies for shareholders children. NOT.
I think SNH will settle (they were caught with the hands in the cookie jar) but JPM and FDIC... I don't think so.
So we will get 50% of a deal, and will have to pursue 'the rest' of the deal through some years of litigation...
A bit sweet&sour of a deal. All IMHO.
325 WAMPQ@40.1
UXXX063 BOT WAMPQ 200@40 as of 2011-06-01 11:20:12
UXXX063 BOT WAMPQ 125@40.1 as of 2011-06-01 11:23:00
manipulation?
I was buying WAMPQ with the bid at $40.10 (when they were like 42 or something like that) but got them for $40.00
Funny, right?
could it be por v.7 with bad news?
God his tie is terrible, want to pull my eyes off!!
pay me in silver coins, please
Hi Kristall. Very interesting.
Could you please update the chart to reflect last week's activity?
I keep missunderstanding why with these relative good news (specially for prefs) we didn't get a sharper PPS increase.
TIA from Spain
The 117:1 ratio was (A) voluntary for preferred shareholders and (B) applied only preBK (not now).
Otherwise if I were a common shareholder I would swap all my commons (@0.108) for preferreds.
Let me see, 117*0.108 = $12.363 (then you sell them at market value 30$ and you can become rich quickly!!)
It doesn't make sense...
I think we already felt the screws for almost 3 years. It's time now to make other's suffer, I guess.
I think SS has got SNH by the gonads. We cannot lose, IMHO.
Agree 100%
I think these stocks will skyrocket (like it did last friday) at any moment now.
Why do you say NOLs aren't accessible for Equity?
They are indeed not (directly) accessible, but they really have some value...
And what if this is all a plan from the SNH-debtors to make the EC lose some time?
The EC is delaying depos as it looks SNH are reaching some kind of settlement.
What if SNH are not trully intending to settle anything, and they only want to make the EC lose some precious time and get to the confirmation date without having been deposed?
Could it be their master-evil plan?
GLTA WAMU longs
Correct me if I'm wrong but the WAMPQ conversion for commons only applied BEFORE BK ocurred.
help voting (Merril Lynch)
Hello, I just received these instructions in my SelfTrade account:
INSTRUCTION DEADLINE DATES
Final Date for Instructions:
May 09, 2011 17:00 EST
TERMS
Expiration Date:
Offeror Name:
OPTIONS
Option 1:
Holders who elect to Opt Out/not Grant release will not be entitled to any distribution and shares will be cancelled. .
Option 2:
Principal Cash
Holders who Opt In/Grant their release may elect to receive a prorata distribution of Cash and Liquidating Trust Interest for
each share held.
Option 3:
Holders may vote to accept or reject the modified plan only, holders will then have to pursue any claims on their own directly
with the agent up until a date to be determined by the agent.
Option Default:
Default Option:
Holders who do not submit a Beneficial Ballot will have to pursue any claims on their own directly with the agent up until a
date to be determined by the agent.
May 13, 2011
WASHINGTON MUTUAL
-----------------------------------
In my Interactive Brokers account the default action is 'no action' so I can choose after the BK is over if I grant or don't grant the releases.
What should I do now? I am somewhat lost.
Yeah, that's why preferreds are named preferreds and commons are named commons.
If someone thinks preferreds should have a haircut so that commons get something... they should sell some commons and buy preferreds instead. Just in case. IMHO.
the exact words would be 'the calculated average ratio'.
Knowing that the (real) ratio is 35, I'm analyzing the posibility to invest in this preferreds as spreads.
I'll try to explain myself with an example:
If the ratio of P / K is over 35 it means P's are overpriced and/or Ks are undervalued. Then I would SELL (short) X WAMPQs and BUY 35X WAMKQs.
As 35 is the average, this ratio will probably go under 35 at some time, then I would BUY the X WAMPQ shares that I prevously shorted and SELL the 35X shares that previously bought.
The problem is that there is no big share float to guarantee I will be able to buy/sell any shares ata given time, but if I see more movement I will start trading this spreads.
I currently have a heavy position on WAMPQ and a little one in both WAMUQ and WAHUQ.
I am still concerned with the freakin' 54 billion $ bogus claim.
I think that's the main obstacle right now as, it will not matter if we get 160M or 30% of 17billion in NOLs. That 54billion hole will suck every possible recovery chance.
Hope the appeal on wether the judge can be also jury and witness at the same time gains traction. If not I think it's going to be game over for all of us.
Don't take me seriously but:
- If SNH are proven to be guilty of insider trading charges, then FJR would be applied on them and that would make a waterfall on the hundreds of millions to the preferreds.
- The problem with the NOLs is that we cannot tell what number can we apply as you have to take into consideration wether the new company is going to keep 51% of equity (no ownership change) what could make NOLs go up to the 17 billion $ figure Tricadia showed last December, or the 5.5 billion one.
30% of 5.5 billion is 1.65 billion $ (not enough to fill the preferreds) but 30% of 17 billion would be 5.1 billion, what would fill all preferreds and spill something to the commons.
It's hard to tell where are we heading now. We have that 54 billion bogus claim that is a life-insurance for debtors plan. We should get rid of that claim as soon as possible and then we could make singnificant improvements.
Hello LG.
I don't think there is a 'Plan B'.
JPM, FDIC and Debtors are in the same boat and IMHO there is nothing the EC can offer them that would make JPM or FDIC change their plans.
In the current GSA, all of them get what they want (except the releases). JPM gets more money than what they deserve, FDIC also gets more money, and the Debtors get access to an undervalued WMI-2 company that they could later on sale for a profit.
Currently EC gets nothing. Also, SNH are probably going to be punished if insider trading alegations are proven to be true, but they are out of the JPM-FDIC-debtors trio.
There is a 54 billion (bogus) claim that they are using to make this POR look fair.
JPM is saying:
- hey, we have a claim of XX billions that we would give up if you give us some assets, NOLs, and so on.
FDIC is saying:
- hey, we have a claim of XX billions that we would give up if you give us some of your tax returns, NOLs, and so on.
And finally the debtors are saying:
- Hey, look, there are 54 billion $ in claims against the state. There is no way we can get absolutely anything better that ZERO for the equity. Even if FJR is applied, even if more assets are found...
With this scenario (they all win-win) I really doubt they would like to involve the EC at any level. Also, I am very sure JPM or some of their sheanigans, has shorted Wamu to death, so they would have to cover shorts if Commons get anything above zero.
What I expect is that this case starts moving in the EC direction by the following points:
1.- SNH found guilty of insider trading. FJR applied.
2.- JPM and FDIC claims disallowed (in this or in other court). FDIC already lost a similar case last year, I don't think they are entitled to any recovery from WMI, and JPM, with all the billions they admit making on Wamus assets I don't think they will have a case neither. Not a 54 billion case.
3.- NOLs correctly valued, at 30% and not at 1.5% as debtors are doing right now.
Hello pals. I've got a question about Hs.
I don't follow this forum regularly, but have got a question I don't understand.
There is a clause that states that if FJR is applied to SNH, then Hs must make whole SNH.
But to my understanding it's different if a judge imposes FJR over CR as a punishment (in the case of the SNH would be for illegal trading activities) rather than for other motives.
Can this 'have to make whole' clause be argued or we have to take it as it is?
Thank you in advance.
ANICO vs JPM motion for appeal: DC Court of Appeals, 9:30 AM
http://www.my.calendars.net/wmi
Just google 'wmi calendar' and hit the first link.