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Nope....more my gut telling me we'll be shipping rich and plentiful concentrate very soon.
F18
I feel a major short squeeze coming soon! Buckle up.
F18
I am tenatively very pleased with my investment choice. But I'm also realistically prepared to be wrong.
F18
True we have not had that PR yet but it is most definitely coming. Of course the main point I was trying to make is that we have come a very long way since 08.
F18
A major difference is they barely had a building shell in 08', now they have finished concentrate.
F18
I could totally see it from a penny that doesn't have a pile of concentrate in a bin just looking for a home. I could totally see it from a penny that is a scam.
I'll bet you 100,000 shares of my stock to 10,000 shares of your stock that RBS gave their concent.
F18
Come on dude. The best way to tick off your business partners is to use their name in a PR w/o their concent.
F18
So in the last three weeks we have PRs on
1) Settlement with the bridge loan people,
2) Major announcement regarding their drilling operation, and
3) A buyer for the concentrate.
The PN suit is just another indication that there is huge potential in this project.
All the MD haters and professional bashers out there must be a bit less comfortable today.
Oh, and for those who are downplaying this PR because it is a “tentative agreement”. You know RBS wouldn’t allow CPRK to release the PR if they were not very confident the agreement will be perfected.
F18
I wonder if RBS will be interested in providing LT financing once they see the higher volumes of concentrate.
F18
TM,
If I'm one of those cheerleaders you're talking about I have grown tired of the way this board gets moderated and have chosen not to be as vocal. I prefer private message with my friends. BTW, my last trade of CPRK was a 600,000 share buy at .017 and I still own 8 digit shares.
Looking forward to a great week. I predict that within two weeks (maybe this week) we will know who is the buyer of the concentrate and we should have more clarity on when the first shipment will go out.
F18
You are correct. Land prices on balance sheets are typically valued at the lessor of purchase price or true value. GAAP typically makes you write down assets when they go down in value but does not typically allow you to write them up as that would be a way companies could play games with the balance sheet to drive fuzzy income statement numbers.
F18
FFF,
Great summary.....one more point.
I find it very interesting that PN offers extensions for several years and then stops playing nice just as the mill is almost finished. If the judge simply looks at both side's intent, it is clear that CPRK has done everything within their power (no pun intended), to get this mill into production. This was never more evident than the past 18 months since the contact was signed with PN.
Hard to think PN's intent has been honorable if they were willing to cut WUCC a break for several years and then they put the hammer down just when WUCC proves up reserves and builds a complex mill.
I do not believe the intent is to steal the land back as it is a long shot at best that a judge would be so accommodating. Rather, I see it as an attempt to extort a better deal with WUCC.
I would not be too upset if this is settled by WUCC by increasing the maximum royality amount by 50% to $15 million. While $5 million seems like a lot right now, we have to remember that it will only be 1%-2% of the revenues. If CPRK has to pay PN $15 mil it means they have sold at least $750 milion of their product and we will all be very wealthy shareholders.
F18
JTF.....I believe this stock is being driven down by a very small group of people. Sure the mom and pops might be selling out of fear but that volume should be easily offset up by everyone averaging down.
F18
Web....are your predictions based on any real DD or just your gut feelings? If the later, do you really think it wise for anyone including yourself to make investment decisions based on that? If the former, please share.
Also, if your so confident a RS is in the works, have you sold your position?
F18
I think the ore they spoke about in their PR last week is worth much more than the current market cap and imo that was just the tip of the iceberg.
F18
Did you read my entire post?
F18
In the past 6 months we've gone from
$25 mil market cap in Jan
$75 mil market cap in April/May
$30 mil market cap today (June)
As you know, the rapid rise and fall is very indicative of pk stocks. IMO, the pps and market cap potential are better now because we are in production (sort of). What makes this last two-three weeks gut wrenching is the change from April/May. If you go back to Jan, we're slightly higher in market cap, slightly lower in pps and much much closer to positive cash flows.
Not long ago we ran from .01 to .03 in a few weeks .....imo, we will do it again soon.
F18
So you suspect the lower pps is most likely a result of death spiral financing and that the people selling are not necessirily trying to drive the pps lower.
I think that trade a few weeks ago at .005 is a very big clue that this stock is being driven lower by design.
F18
I'm really slow....are you saying to agree that someone is bent on driving this pps down or are you saying you feel it is people selling shares w/o intent to drive the pps down?
If it is the insiders selling to raise money for the company, they sure seem to be going about it in a strange way.
IMO, this stock is being driven down so someone can get a bigger piece of the pie OR so someone will never have to convert a short position.
F18
That is why they MUST wait until they are cash flow positive.
F18
Yeah I know.....Anytime the RS proposition comes out it gets folks in a twitter. From the standpoint of being attractive to new investors, I think 40 mil shares o/s and a .80 stock price isn't a bad capital structure to work with.
F18
Do you also think that this stock price is being driven down rather than someone trying to get out of a massive position? I'm sure you understand the difference.
I know that if I had 40 mil shares to sell, I wouldn't be going about it this way. IMO, someone wants this stock to hit a certain price and then the trend will reverse. Of course if we are under assault by short sellers they may want to kill the company so they never have to cover.
I know this won't be received very well and I'm not suggesting it will happen but wouldn't now be a great time to announce positive cash flow and a 100 to 1 RS?
39 mil shares o/s at .80/share doesn't wound too bad right now.
F18
A few weeks ago when that strange trade when through at .005 I wondered if that was a signal being sent by a MM to their friends. Now, it appears much more likely that it was.
F18
Colorado....fwiw, my theories on who is selling....
First let me say it appears the selling seems isolated to a small group of people. The Friday pattern is indicative of it being limited to a few people.
1) MM/Naked short sellers. I think it is obvious that there are people who are actively trashing CPRK. This includes those trying to intimidate and bully people off of the public boards with threatening and vulgar private messages. Hard to come up with a motive for this kind of behavior unless they are short this stock or want to get shake shares away from weak hands so they can get a bigger piece of this.
2) WUCC shareholders who have waited 18 months to get their hands on CPRK shares who now have them and are selling because they are just ticked off.
3) Death spiral financing. People who have unlimited access to discounted shares and/or loans that are convertible into shares based on share price who are highly motivated to lower the share price to get a bigger piece of this pie. This group could include very bullish shareholders and/or bridge loan people.
4) Insiders who are selling shares to raise money to put back into the company.
IMO, the potential of this project has only gotten better with the construction of the mill and the drilling program.....The thing that is unclear to me is how much of the potential will filter down to the CPRK shareholders. Even if I cut my projections in half and then cut them in half again, I still believe this is an investment that will be very lucrative.
F18
Sorry Pal. I'm no help here. I really don't get whole dirty concentrate issue. I just know that it is very normal to take a few months to go from soft start to full production.
F18
The more I read this the more exicted I get....
"A total of 53 drill holes have intersected at least 15 feet of mineralization grading greater than 1.5% copper at shallow depths."
At least = the smallest amount
Greater than = the smallest amount
I think you can rewrite their statement to say....
A total of 53 drill holes have intersected at a minimum of 15 feet of mineralization (averaging 35 feet) and grading between 1.5% and __________, with an average of ________.
So if if understand what they've told us, at relatively shallow depths, they have found 35 feet of ore in a "lake" at least 1,200 feet wide (4 football fields).
35 x 1200 = 42,000 linear cubic feet. Of couse these things are anything but linear.
F18
For all the MD haters out there, you must give him some credit for knowing where to drill. He may not be very experienced in Mill construction (or at least he wasn't), but he does seem to know his rocks. I've researched historic mining operations in this area and many companies have thought there was ore there but gave up after not finding it after they drilled a few holes.
F18
Candy/other longs,
What I like the most about today's PR is it tells us what has been done vs. what they hope to do.
Shallow, high-grade ore w/o a beginning or end seems like a big deal.
F18
I also thought so when I first read the definition but then this caught my attention....
"Porphyry copper deposits are the largest source of copper, and are found in North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and Pacific islands."
It is also nice to know there is a porphyry in Utah called the Bingham Canyon mine. I've heard estimates that in today's dollars Bingham Canyom would have been worth $100 billion when it was first discovered.
F18
Funny how some are so ignorant to the significance of the drilling results and only want to focus on the mill. If we can prove the existence of a porphyry, it could take a hundred years to realize its true value. It surely would make the weeks/months of delays in the mill a moot point and would take the potential of our investment from pennies to dollars. IMO, if they can prove a porphyry, our very small mill will be inadequate to process all the ore bodies and we would need to go from a Jr. mining company to the big leagues. Or, maybe we would sell to a firm already playing in the majors.
F18
VVV,
I can tell you that I saw a lot of tears shed when MD cut the ribbon at their open house. For those of us who have visited the mill and met with these folks, it is easy to understand how this project is a big deal emotionally for the people involved.
Also, I'm wondering if today's PR is really code for "mother load"? I'll bet that the drilling results are further evidence that they may be closer to finding a porphyry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porphyry_copper_deposit
Can anyone with a mining background shed some light on what is the value of the ore referenced in today's PR?
I hope that this PR will cause a stir in the industry over the next few days. I've seen several PRs over the past year or two that have had delayed reactions.
F18
You can thank MD for consolidating all those minerals into one company for you to invest in.
F18
RTR....you are spot on. People want the upside of a pinky with the downside of a muni bond. Good luck finding it. The same volatility that frustrates us is also essential to send us much higher in a very short period of time. I'm banking on the MMs taking this much higher very soon. However, it will only stay high when the company delivers operations...not PRs.
We will not realize our investment potential until CPRK goes from "we expect" to "we achieved".....This switch in language is coming soon, imo.
F18
Can't recall where I heard that from but I just tied to find something on the net about Kataman being acquired but could not. My bad.
It is obvious that the deal with Kataman fell through as MD is telling anyone who asks that they are in the final stages of negotiating a deal for their concentrate. Seems reasonable to me that Kataman may have expected their product sooner and when CPRK was unable to deliver, they found it elsewhere. It seems CPRK is happy to have more bidders for their product...maybe a win, win.
F18
I understand that Kataman was acquired and that the deal is no longer good for both sides.
F18
They're not making anything right now because the product is not in a salable condition. Also, it appears they have not yet signed a deal with a buyer.
From what I’ve read on this board, this should all change any day now as they are getting very close to having a buyer nailed down and they have the mill dialed in enough to start producing finished concentrate.
Within 30 days, I expect them to be producing 60-80k pounds of copper per day (100-120 tons of concentrate/day).
F18
80,000 pounds/day of copper would be about 130 tons/day (5.4 tons/hour) of concentrate assuming 30% of the concentrate is copper.
Therefore the 60 tph must be ore....not concentrate.
As I understand it, they consider 146 tons/hour (3,500 tons/day) full production so using 60tph they are currently at 41% of full production.
F18
I feel a major reason for the significant frustration on this board is that MD has done a very poor job of helping us all understand the difficulty of what they are trying to accomplish.
He has consistently allowed his irrational optimism influence our expectations. This over promise, under deliver style has detracted some from seing the real accomplishments and may have resulted in people selling in a panic.
However, the upside of this investment is still very significant even with the huge dilution that has occurred. 160k pounds of copper per day at $2.45/pound would produce unbelievable amounts of cash flow. I have more confidence in the ore bodies and the mill now than at any other time I've been an investor. It is a shame that people want to jump out of a window just because their expectations have not been on the timeframe MD helped to establish.
F18
"How is this company going toe execute the big things if can't execute the small."
From my point of view, MD is guilty of not handling the small things to my satisfaction. However, I believe he has handled the big things just fine. Consolidating dozens/hundreds of mining interests into one was a big thing. Raising the funds necessary to build a $100 mil floatation mill was a big thing. Actually building the floating mill was the biggest thing of all.
The pps will go up and down and up and down until this company is proving themselves with sustained financial performance. Dave Jensen has been involved with a few of these projects including the largest mine in Nevada and from what I hear he feels CPRK is progressing much better than expected.
F18
FFF,
Don't let the fear mongers get you down. I agree with you completely.
F18