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I spoke briefly with the new CFO Barry Woodhouse Wednesday night, and he's rescheduled the call with Gene for next Monday night my time / next Tuesday morning Perth time. More details here: http://steamcatapult.com/2010/08/27/alloy-steel-call-update-ii/
What's "that other one"?
Questions for Alloy Steel's CEO or new CFO? Leave them at the link: http://steamcatapult.com/2010/08/18/questions-for-alloy-steels-ceo-and-new-cfo/
I actually have a Fidelity account too. Should have tried that one, I guess.
I should add: they made me order by phone when I bought a few shares at $1.75 before the quarter was announced too.
I'd buy more now, but I'm on a plane and my brokerage won't let me buy AYSI via the Internet.
I just e-mailed Gene asking if he'd consider filing an 8-K or hosting a conference call to elaborate on the quarter and future plans in light of today's market action. I figured it was worth a shot. It's the middle of the night there, of course, so I wouldn't expect to hear back until tonight at the earliest.
The last time I e-mailed Gene about the company before this was back in May, asking him to elaborate on the mill situation in WA. This was his response to me:
Hello David,
It has been decided by the board to put a lid on future expansion news regarding new mills. Suffice it to say we will meet any demand that will come Alloy’s way. As this may become useful information for our weld overlay brothers around the world we have no intention of giving away any information to any potential competitor that may use this knowledge to potentially hurt the interests of this company or our shareholders.
I believe the shareholders ought to focus on our yearly results.
Gene
Agreed. This quarter was definitely disappointing, but one more quarter of positive earnings and this will start popping up on the screens of investors who screen for ttm numbers. A 10x multiple would probably be reasonable then, given the lack of confidence in the growth story. If the market tanks between now and then, that multiple will probably drop to the high single digits though. Even so, this should be worth closer to $2 per share than $1.
The lack of communication from the company helps explain the current share price.
If the company puts together a couple sequentially larger record quarters, then it would warrant a bigger multiple at that point.
I wouldn't assume Mongolia is dead. Recall from my conversation with Greg Muller back in December that he said that mine wasn't expected to start operations until 2011: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/alloy-steels-10-k.html
I'll let you know. I always note my exits, whatever the outcome is. Keep an eye on the JOE thread at the link if you don't see a message here.
That question's moot now.
Looks like that commenter was spot on. Down ~76% since he made his short case for JBI Inc. I'll have to see what else he's bearish on.
The hurdle rate basically doubled though. Instead of miners facing a 40% tax on excess profits above a 6% hurdle, they will face a 30% tax on excess profits above a hurdle rate of the Australian 10 year government bond yield + 7% (equal to about 12% at the moment). Good news for the miners, though this may be tempered by a deceleration in Chinese economic growth.
Ended up getting stopped out of USG back then for a small loss. Bought puts on it yesterday though: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/154-31-of-home-sales-in-q1-were-foreclosures-usg-corp-usg
Bought puts on JOE Wednesday. I think the day's move was window dressing: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/153-window-dressing-for-ugly-kid-joe-today-st-joe-co-joe
Who cares. It closed at .59 today.
Just remember, it's always darkest before it becomes completely black: http://steamcatapult.com/2010/06/28/how-far-can-something-fall/
Hesperian makes the bearish case for CVC here: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/144-new-short-cablevision-systems-corp-cvc
Cnairn makes the bearish case for BKC here: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/146-burger-king-burger-king-holdi-bkc
I read the press release. So did everyone who knocked the shares down 29% in a week. Cnairn says it's going to zero. Feel free to register for the board and tell him why he's wrong: https://shortscreen.com/message-board
83 banks shut down so far this year by the FDIC. FBP could be added to that list soon.
Why?
I picked up a few of the Dec $2.50 puts on FBP last week: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/145-rough-day-for-fbp-first-bancorp-fbp
Thought they'd be up more with the 29% drop in the underlying, but I guess some of that drop was already priced into the puts. A few more days like today and they'll probably pop to the upside.
I read about this royalty deal last night. I'm still not sure how it "undermines" Rudd's plan. First, the deal is with the state of WA, not the Aussie federal government, right? Second, by agreeing to pay higher royalties the miners are acknowledging that they need to leave more money on the table for Australia -- which the same principal behind the federal super profits tax proposal.
According to the editors of the FT and William Pesek at Bloomberg, the Super Tax will probably pass in some form. But, on the bright side, the terms will probably be adjusted somewhat in favor of the miners', e.g., the hurdle rate before the tax kicks in (i.e., what represents "super profits") will probably be raised.
Stopped out of this Monday for a 1.9% gain: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/113-shorted-pacw-at-20-45-today-pacwest-bancorp-pacw
Stopped out at $28.69 today for a loss of 6.4%.
Shorted this Tuesday at $26.85: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/115-shorts-for-tomorrow-royal-caribbean-cruises-ltd-rcl
Shorted this Tuesday at $35.48: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/116-shorted-this-today-at-35-48-cit-group-inc-de-cit
I don't know anything about MRNA, but I do know that commenter works in the industry. You're welcome to set him straight if you like.
I got stopped out of this today at $10.59. I used a 9% trailing stop here, but I should have increased that after yesterday's drop, considering how volatile this stock has been. I will keep an eye on this and may short it again.
A commenter named Yarek makes a short case for MRNA here: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/114-long-decline-nastech-pharmaceutical-co-inc-mrna
This symbol is no longer Pac-West Telecom Inc. It's PacWest Bancorp. I just shorted it today at $20.45: http://steamcatapult.com/2010/06/02/new-short-pacw/
Shorted MMR today at $10.63. Went into a little more detail on that here: http://steamcatapult.com/2010/06/02/new-short-position-mmr/
Got stopped out of this today at $20.82 for a gain of 23.7%: http://steamcatapult.com/2010/06/02/old-short-pxp/
This is a good day to have some short positions and puts. It's nice to be in the green on a day like this when everything is getting hammered.
Thanks, and you're welcome.
I'm not shorting it here. But I should have considered shorting JBII when it was over $5. Avoidthegarbage actually made the short case for it twice, once on 4/28, and before that on 1/4 ( http://shortscreen.com/message-board/45-jbii-ob-one-to-watch-for-shorting-jbi-inc-jbii ).
Think so. I may have to give it a try considering how some of these are dropping like lead balloons.
I think I could have gotten shares when it was over $5.
On 4/28, when Avoidthegarbage last made his short case for JBII, this was trading at $5.31: http://shortscreen.com/message-board/78-just-a-quick-thought-for-short-jbi-inc-jbii
I should have shorted it then. My mistake.
I haven't bought any above $2.29.
Not that I don't think it's a good deal here, but keeping my average cost low (currently, a little under a dollar) increases my margin of safety. Plus, this is already my biggest stock position.