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Disassembly to individual components as much as possible without damage. And itemizing component material, tooling and labor costs.
TM - completely revamping their EV program after tear down of latest model Y. They finally realize they are deep in the mud. TSLA customers in China that already own 3 and Y are upset that prices are being lowered on both. Margins are high enough that tesla can do that. Now both will qualify for EV incentives that are meager compared to EU and NA.
EV/Level3 - VCSEL solid state Lidar will probably take over the sensor (aside from cameras) market for cars and trucks. Projected cost taking a dive and already under $1K. Cant get to automated driving without it. There are multiple sources for VCSELs. Below is just an example.
https://www.lumentum.com/en/media-room/videos/high-performance-multi-junction-vcsel-arrays-direct-time-flight-lidar
Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. Sold all today.
Gravity is hard to defeat and I doubt $10B price tag for Manhattan has any basis in reality. When XOM puts a price tag on what it will cost to dike Gulf Coast refineries like BayTown, then we will get an idea of the magnitude of the costs before steel and concrete.
Their thinking that they can inhouse both software and hardware for Robotaxi's must not be working out. Car makers must want a PC like ecosystem so they can pick and choose what they want and write their own UX. TSLA would be the exception and do everything themselves except chip making. INTC will end up competing with TSM, not a pretty vision.
I don't think the 1/6 rioters have any sense of humor. They probably take all reality shows seriously even knowing that they are scripted. We will see whether CVX current execs have a sense of humor and handle this as they spend a lot resources and many PR years cultivating an image of "people" power and social responsibility. McKay's video is funny if you are not Chevron employed.
CVX - Commercial made by Oscar winner going viral. Ouch.
Range claims are dubious. Impressive price point nonetheless.
I attended a city sponsored mtg that discussed new affordable housing regulations and the state encouraging homeowners to build ADU's, looks like 50%+ of the ADUs will require ceiling fire sprinklers and solar panels. Some will require caissons depending on geological surveys and earthquake shear walls. Lumber and materials are relatively minor relative to the increase in labor costs. The simplest projects will be $400/sqft according to builder at mtg.
There doesn't seem to be a universal definition. IMO there needs to be. For example "under X hours to charge from 20%-80%". Otherwise any outlet within reach of an EV would be an "unit". Also, not many in China have their own garages.
What's the Chinese definition of a "charging unit"? I haven't checked.
China's EV market penetration - Original goal was 20% by 2025. "They will fly by that this year."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/china-electric-vehicles.html
Anybody working on that?
RSV - Got a promotional email from CVS recruiting people for P3 trial of MVA-BN-RSV. I am not signing up but hadn't realized that we are getting close to an approval product. Dew - how are you handicapping this space? This trial had N=20k.
"FSD" is more like "FBS" right now. Going into it, I thought her area would be a good app for FSD. Big wide roads, well marked, relatively light traffic compared to big metro areas. IMO probably have to wait for a couple more generations of car chipsets in addition to dojo to have a functional FSD. And it needs to proven with Formula E races that have no drivers and no geofencing.
I am just guessing but IMO the things that concerned her requires edge AI, cloud AI would not be fast enough because of latency and really not built for edge situations.
TSLA - My sister finally qualified to be a beta tester for FSD several weeks ago. After some manual interventions including 2 near collisions and instances where other drivers became mad with her "driving", she has now disabled FSD beta. She is back to using autopilot without navigation.
Congrats.
That and ILMN is still lacking in long read capabilities relative to PACB. Also don't have an understanding of the overlap or lack of between Grail and Invitae. On the surface, seems different in terms of disease detection vs a priori prediction.
ILMN/Grail - Judge's denial of FTC opposition tanks PACB/nvta at opening.
Wow. 1 out of 21. Are there any sellers left? LOL. I just had my windows and doors painted and a 6 pack of 1.5" blue masking tape was $45. The painters went through 4 of those in a week. What's 3M's liability wrt PFA's.
IMO they have a pretty handle on potential production capacity in S. America over the next couple of years. My guess is +1.5-2.5 MB/d if not higher depending how fast the Argentines want to move on shale.
Perhaps there is something real behind the rumored resumption of PDVSA negotiations.
EOR adds to recovery efficiency and it slows declines. There won't be a noticeable jump in the production curve. That balanced against punching new holes in ground and bringing in a fleet of fracking equipment to slow declines will be the balancing factor. The work still to be done will be to determine whether capex/opex is correlated to the amount of emissions.
XOM counts that as part of their CO2 capture effort so why not. The CO2 left in the reservoirs at the end of an EOR project is captured for practical purposes. What needs to done is to capture the CO2 produced and that should end up captured underground eventually.
Might as well inject the captured CO2 for EOR projects. 2nd law of thermodynamics cannot be beat so this will just be a PR show to justify continued emissions.
PS. Lukoil chairman fell from a hospital window in Moscow because he committed "suicide". He publicly hoped that the military conflict with Ukraine ends quickly. They were the only Russian oil company I trust.
Extreme heat event modeling for evaluating heat risk on real property over the next 30 yrs. I was interested in how they did this - looks like a statistical model that was back tested and it is a finely gridded evaluation 30 meters between points. Climate models are extremely coarse grid so cannot address details like extreme events frequency. I am struck by the absence of Tx based university scientists in this effort. Az, Ca and Fl are well represented. MIT has top atmospheric science people so glad to see a lot of them involved.
https://firststreet.org/methodology/
PACB - Roll the CCs out to Sept expiration for 0.45-0.50.
PACB/ONTTF - Study using ONT's approach to sequencing cell free DNA and review about different approaches towards the goal of liquid biopsies.
https://www.genomeweb.com/liquid-biopsy/nanopore-sequencing-shows-promise-epigenetic-liquid-biopsy-testing
MDACC signed on to a JV with commercial scale company in June to make cells in Houston. Is your POV comment with specific regard to autologous CAR-T or cell therapy in general? If the latter, would appreciate your reasoning.
https://www.mdanderson.org/newsroom/md-anderson-resilience-launch-joint-venture-accelerate-development-manufacturing-innovative-cell-therapies-cancer.h00-159540534.html#:~:text=The%20University%20of%20Texas%20MD,therapies%20for%20patients%20with%20cancer.
PACB - That didn't last long. I sold Aug CC's before today and it is 1-1.5$ (compared to 4-6$ earlier today) ITM. Maybe the shares won't be assigned after all and I will get to roll them.
PACB - All the sequencing tool companies bottomed around mid July. PACB blowing up today. TXG ILMN NSTG ONTTF
NVTA also bottomed in July.
The integrated 4680 packs/modules coming out of Austin for the Y is nuts. IMO nobody catches them on gross margin and if they try they will get their margins crushed. Solid state batteries from others competing by 2025? Very iffy proposition. Trillion dollar question is how fast can Tesla ramp 4680 cells. Doesn't sound like Panasonic will be ready till next year.
TSLA - IMO has the capacity to get to 4 million units/yr if battery supply is not a constraint. Shanghai alone can go over 1 million after 2 wk shut down to upgrade production lines. 4680 cells integral to production ramp.
Is there some intellectual property in raising pigs and food packaging? Just trying to understand your objection.
Not a problem. Economics. $20+/panel to recycle <$2 to landfill IMO landfilling wins. Koreans have figured a way to lower cost significantly but it will still be ~10 years before recycling does better than breakeven. Lithium batteries different story.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/19/novel-pv-module-recycling-tech-from-south-korea/
VW CEO fired over software last week. OTA updates not working still and owners are driving to dealerships to get software updates or bug fixes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-25/porsches-postponed-by-buggy-software-cost-vw-s-ceo-his-job
OpenAI - AI art on demand based upon verbal descriptions being offered to public.
https://openai.com/blog/dall-e-now-available-in-beta/
John Browne legacy was to cut opex where his numbers suggest excessive spending. He didn't understand why there was such such a high safety margin in refineries and offshore drilling. The problem was probably cultural as opinions from engineers are secondary to those from aristocrats. The numbers got better until the accidents started piling up.