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If this proves to be one of those periodic cyclical bear markets sentiment should get extremely negative. Especially when we arrive at the capitulation phase.
Recent patterns suggest a high is near the beginning of month.
I've been of the belief they continue until there's a breakdown in commodity prices by slowing demand. Not there yet and if they stop now there will continue to be inflation in the pipeline.
Yep, defensive stuff would do better here since most fund charters require them to be fully invested. If memory serves defensive also declined in the last bear market, only not as deeply. If this is short and shallow re the SPX it may hold up. If it lasts more than a year I think most all stocks head for a bottom.
Do you take this as a bear market? Sure seems as if the character has changed to sell, sell, sell.
The 20 or so stocks I've been watching all look bad. Bullish intraday patterns are failing to the downside. i.e. Falling wedges, cup w/handles, bull flags, and inverse h&s.
Was playing the falling channel on Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Fri. and it just simply fell through after ten days inside. Breached weekly support candles too. This is an oil and NatGas stock mind you, what had been the most bullish sector.
I'm guessing the rest of the summer will be down as this sure looks like a bear market to me.
Yes, but in a brokerage account at Scottrade. I see Profunds has their ETF's out now, only traded one, the QLD and the volume had much to be desired. Slow moving trades so far.
Currently 90% short Spy and 10% short QQQQ.
Lot's of technical damage done on NDX. Looks like it seeks support in 1400 area minimum. I was thinking a rally first but now looks doubtful.
I was looking for some reason for the slide to stop here, like TL support or significant prior price support, unable to find any I looked for where that might happen.
I was home Friday and watched the market all day, the desire to sell was overwhelming and the bids have dried up.
If we bounce here I think the pro's are going to have to lead the way.
That lowball bid may not be hit, but given the risk of more downside, that's what I'm willing to pay.
That's what a markets all about eh?,...... What buyers are willing to pay and sellers willing to accept.
I think we continue down a bit Monday/Tuesday. Most likely I'll put a bid in under the market at 35.37 or so. Any good news will get a decent bounce going that will be a short selling opportunity.
Closed my Rydex account and moved my funds here. http://www.us.hsbc.com/1/2/3/personal/savings/online-savings
I don't have much interest in the market at what I think is relative over-valuation compared to historical standards. 1300-1400 Ndx would get my attention.
1st leg down or major correction in continuing bull?
I think Fed continues untill speculative excesses are wiped out even if it tanks the markets.
Stopped out on the close above resistance and weekly rising tops line. Think I'll take a break here too.
Enjoy the downtime.
Average price on short is 1692.
You're position is relatively neutral then. For today any how. Well, we're into some heavy resistance here so I'm going the full monty 100% short Ndx.
Not to mention neg d's.
I'll be boosting shorts to 50% today. Weekly $Nasi has crossed down which does not bode well for the IT. Typical seasonal inflows due to expire this week.
Very nice start Namiar.
Didn't work out as I had hoped. lol, everyone else wanted to sell that pop open too. Had I been able to see that everyone had the same idea, I would have held long.
Futures bouncing. Taking off Ndx long and switching half to to the short side and half to cash for 38/200 short Ndx. Outta here for the day.
Reduced Rut short to 7% and increased Ndx long to 38%. 55% Cash.
I'd bet they paid a distribution. If you own it you got the gain in added shares.
Thanks Lisa. There may be some rotation out of bonds here, the $TYX is looking like a reversal stick so far.
I'm thinking some money comes in this afternoon. Manager's are taking a beating on their performance bonuses here.
Don't know yet what to think about Jan. as a lot of selling is being pulled forward to this calender year, regardless of tax advantages to waiting till Tues.
Ugly down this morning but I think we bottom (st) before the lunch hour. Be surprised if the funds don't step up heavily before EOD to save their EOY bonuses.
Tues./Wed. may be up too as new money enters.
Good luck.
Adding the 30% cash position to Velocity 2X fund. I think the market sees a ST bottom before noon.
Diversified across asset classes.
7% Commodities Rymbx
7% short the 30 Yr bond Ryjux
7% Short US Dollar Rywbx
30% Cash
Long Stock funds 28%
7% Basic Materials Rybix
7% Energy Ryeix
7% Financial Services Ryfix
7% Consumer Staples Rycix
Short
21% Short $Rut small cap index Ryshx
Bought some sectors but short on time. Put it up later.
PM's are making me envious. Gave up my position long ago. The current lack of rally could be fear selling from the decline last Jan., we could get a decent markup the first couple days of Jan. as much selling is being exausted.
So far it's dissapointing there's no year end markup by the funds. Maybe later today.
NASDAQ Holiday Trading Schedule
2005 Dates - Unless noted, the following dates are holidays that The NASDAQ Stock Market is closed.
January 17 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday
February 21 - Presidents' Day
March 25 - Good Friday
May 30 - Memorial Day
July 4 - Independence Day
September 5 - Labor Day
November 24 - Thanksgiving Day
December 26 - Christmas Day (observed)
2006 Dates - Unless noted, the following dates are holidays that The NASDAQ Stock Market is closed.
January 2 - New Year's Day
January 16 - Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday
February 20 - Presidents' Day
April 14 - Good Friday
May 29 - Memorial Day
July 4 - Independence Day
September 4 - Labor Day
November 23 - Thanksgiving Day
December 25 - Christmas Day
Nasdaq starting to look like a short. Momentum has dried up. A move below .20 on the Williams in conjunction with a 3-7 moving average crossover on the Nasi is a reasonable place to put on a short.
More whipsaws using the same indicators on the Ndx.
Seems like trading in big stocks was heavier than normal after hours. Copy and pasted some since this link is not available later. Put on an EOD Dow play hoping the funds push it up tomorrow.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/stockresearch/screener/afterhours.asp?siteid=mktw
Symbol Company Name Last Change Change % Volume
C Citigroup, Inc. 48.48 +0.01 +0.02% 3,000,500
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 26.40 +0.01 +0.04% 2,968,842
GM General Motors Corpora ... 18.40 -0.21 -1.13% 2,590,400
PFE Pfizer Inc 23.60 UNCH UNCH 1,863,600
GE General Electric Company 35.11 UNCH UNCH 1,134,900
MRK Merck & Co., Inc. 31.92 +0.01 +0.03% 1,051,000
INTC Intel Corporation 25.50 +0.06 +0.24% 792,341
JPM Jp Morgan Chase & Co 39.88 -0.03 -0.08% 750,200
VZ Verizon Communications 30.25 UNCH UNCH 686,700
Went 200% long the Dow. Only good reason is they should goose it for EOY.
Glad I did. Markets not looking good here, but I'm not sure we still don't get an EOY run.
What are you long?
Wanted to put on a long Commodity/Short Rut play but so far the energy component isn't giving me the entry I want.
The Fed has averted any serious recessions with easy money policies. In the process, like stock market rotation, we now have bubble rotation.
All things revert to the mean. Eventually, all bubbles are deflated and the longer they persist, the more serious and longer lasting the correction.
That said, nothing wrong with playing it with an eye to the exits.
Nice to see you back here.
$Rut short/long commodity hedged position for a move back down the falling channel. If I take the trade the purpose of the Rut short is to guard against a worldwide slowdown which IMO is about the only thing that would hurt commodity prices.
On the stock front I think the small caps are due to underperform the next year or two, thus the choice of the small cap hedge.
Commodity's
Considering a position on the assumption the bull market continues.
15 min. Ndx.
Exited my long trade for the three day weekend. Market seems to be straining under persistent selling going into year end. Up 13.40% Ytd.
Problem is how long is consistently? We've had weeks and months of Ndx/Dow weakness but new highs have followed.
Weekly MACD crosses may give a clue.