Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
For us retired geisers who’ve lived through a number of bull and bear markets, the calculus may be a little different.
However I’d be thrilled with either outcome because they are both based on success and $40 now or $100 later (assuming we still get some
Getting out is sometimes harder than getting in!
Right now I am sitting on losses instead of very large gains in the following stocks because I stayed in to ride out “the dip”
Pypl
MTTR
RBLX
CASI
one that I’ve been adding to that posters here are probably aware of is CELULARITY
CELULARITY is pre revenue but the reason I’m invested is that the cofounder of Celgene is the founder of Celularity, which is researching and productizing treatments from human umbilical chord blood and placentas for a variety of diseases including cancer.
I’m simply betting that this very smart and successful individual will be able to succeed again in the science and business of Celularity.
Two items of interest for nwbo investors are that one treatment being worked on is for GBM, and the other is that one of the product services is BANKING the umbilical and placental cells for customers to use if needed later in life (for their children and possibly themselves?)
I could be wrong but you might also have the option to use the stock swap as the taxable event where your gain or loss is the difference between the value of the new stock and the original cost basis of your nwbo stock from your nwbo stock buy transactions.
The new stock basis would be the value of the new stock the day the deal closed.
This is what I think and could be wrong so get properly informed by an expert before acting please.
The concern would be pissing off or otherwise disturbing the FDA, and the other regulatory agencies outside the USA, such that it might affect their approval decisions and dealing with them.
In the past there has been misinformation publicized that tried to besmirch nwbo as hyping dcvax progress and/or status, none of which was accurate.
Nonetheless I would expect another attack exploiting celebrity type support, and it may not be advisable in my opinion until after approvals, imo, but that’s just my opinion.
If an acquirer does an all stock deal, which I would prefer at this time, when the deal closes we would get shares of the acquirer’s stock at the deal ratio and we would not have to have a taxable event until we sell shares.
For example if Merck were to acquire nwbo at let’s say 3 nwbo shares for each Merck share (at around today’s Merck share price we would be getting the equivalent of $25-$30 per nwbo share, and get cash for any fractional share of Merck left over like if you remain with one or two nwbo shares in the stock swap. You would owe tax on the fractional share cash received for shares in a taxable account. No tax for nwbo shares in traditional ira other than usual tax of withdrawals out of the ira. Roth IRA shares are the big winners since no tax applies under current rules.
So the tax timing of shares in the taxable accounts needs care and taxable events are when you sell some of your Merck shares against your original basis adjusted for the stock swap ratio.
If the dividend is paid by stock in a taxable account then you pay tax on the dividend.
If in a traditional ira or 401k then you defer paying the tax but pay tax on any withdrawal from the account as income not dividend.
If in a Roth account of course you don’t pay tax on gains and dividends since you contributed post tax money, unless/until Uncle Sam changes the rules, which would hopefully meet too much resistance and backlash to be passed, but who knows.
Me too!!!
Why would Merck have to pay over $100B when a bunch of us think $25-35billion might get a deal done?
Pleasant dreams for sure!
Yaaaayyy Minions!!!
Y’all are overachievers for sure!
Not just over a buck, but way over!!!
To the moon!
Just enjoying this moment and hope the good times roll !
Come on all ye minions, let’s close over a buck today!!!
To infinity and beyond!
Thanks for the additional information!
Thanks that’s new knowledge! However it doesn’t sound more likely than subcutaneous since I believe a delivery mechanism was implied.
Here’s some logic that reiterates what has been posted on this board already:
1. Merck Keytruda is huge product and approaching patent cliff. However indications and countries where keytruda is allowed to be used continue to grow. Efficacy and safety/side effects not ideal
2. Dcvax type immuno oncology vaccines are very promising and have excellent safety/side effects profile
3. Dcvax if successful is new SOC for GBM and maybe multiple other cancers, potentially taking market share and possibly representing the near/mid future of cancer treatments
4. Looking like DCVax + Keytruda plus other components in combination is more efficacious than individual treatments alone and Keytruda can likely be substituted with other similar component such as BMY product or others
5. At a minimum DCVax + Keytruda
- may provide winning combo/efficacy now
- keeps Keytruda franchise full throttle
- patents and licensing to other BPs
- bridge from current to future
- supports further expansion
- eliminates a threat from potential competitor
6. What is the downside? $20-30billion investment?
Seems like if DCVax shows efficacy per phase3 and ucla combo trial, there’s motivation for Merck to make a move, or another similar BP, but Merck would be ahead of the game and strengthen their position imo.
I tried googling subtitaneous but nothing other than subcutaneous hits came back.
Therefore I assume subcutaneous was the actual intended word.
So Merck trying subcutaneous delivery of keytruda.
DCVax of course is also injected subcutaneously.
I’m not linking the two, yet.
You can’t handle the truth!
Hoooyaaahhhh !!!!
So I guess you’re sided with the shorts, what a surprise
Karma is a biiiyaaatchhh!
You reap what you sew!
Could it happen to a nicer bunch?
I’ve never shorted except once by accident and I corrected the trade thus passing up the unintended gain, so I’m certainly not an expert.
What I remember is that the theoretical loss of a short going the wrong way is unlimited!
In practice, I’d guess it would depend on how quickly the short is covered.
If you’re short a million shares, every $10 increase in sp is costing the short $10 million! You can scale up or down accordingly.
I’m not sure it works the same for the naked shorts since I’m not sure if there are any real consequences? Naked shorts fabricated fantom shares so do they effectively get penalized when they don’t deliver shares to cover?
I may be projecting a saintly persona onto LP without really knowing her, however I feel it will not just be a number, but rather a combination of number and commitment/ability to fulfill the potential of the DCVax platform in strong enough hands.
LP and company are trying to give birth to DCVax as a breakthrough treatment platform to improve the lot of cancer patients. They want their baby to be nurtured through childhood and adolescence to realize it’s potential to help everyone live longer and suffer less, having seen their loved ones through suffering and losing them too soon.
Projection or not that has been my impression of LP’s motivation from the first due diligence on.
That’s why she’d use carrots and careful communication, and if need be put shareholders second to success of this mission in order to accomplish the mission.
Becoming a billionaire or more of a billionaire is great, but there’s only so much one needs to spend and nice things to acquire, and you can’t take any of it with you, and in your end of life you don’t even care about your personal wealth except that you know it will benefit your heirs and charities, and if you’re lucky enough you’ve made a significant contribution to humanity.
That’s why I invested early and often, LP and her character and motivation beyond wealth. I hope I have been a good judge of character!
In fact, the approved treatments that we came across during my mother’s battle were generally helpful for about 20% +- a couple percent, and complete responses were a subset (I think I remember something like 9%) of that. These statistics applied to immuno based treatments including the checkpoint inhibitors. As this is foggy recollection from 3-7 years ago I could be off a bit but I believe still ballpark.
So any improvement for about 20% or more of the candidates to take the drugs is approvable and current approved drugs including keytruda fall into that type of efficacy.
Helping a quarter to a third of candidates live longer without bad side effects in the case of GBM should be a slam dunk in my opinion. For those lucky ones that are effectively cured it’s nothing short of a Godsend!
Many here, including me, reason that a $50B+ market cap is very possible if dcvax is efficacious and approved for multiple types of cancers and especially if dcvax direct proves out.
$20B - $30B is hoped to be a near term market cap possibly sometime between successful TLD and DCVax-L approval, or shortly after.
And what the structure of this combo trial suggests is that dcvax is playing the role of a SOC for GBM since it is given in both legs of the trial, imo.
If there is a better SOC, then the combo of dcvax + Keytruda would be compared to it. Or perhaps applying a historical Stupp protocol curve as the baseline yields dcvax, and dcvax-keytruda combo results versus Stupp.
But wouldn’t the trial description mention an intent to compare against historical SOC?
I’m suspecting that based on what was seen in the phase3, Dr Liau and team felt dcvax is the de facto new SOC (just not approved yet) and therefore the appropriate baseline to compare the combo treatment against.
The type you don’t take home to mother…
Super freak, super freak…
Hmmmmm, that gives about 60 days from now for the ASM to happen.
If live in person would nwbo have access to a venue on short notice? Anyone able to refresh our memory on where the last 2-3 in person ASMs were held?
I hope the ASM isn’t virtual because I really didn’t like the time LP transitioned into shareholder Q&A and simultaneously declaring no questions and concluding the meeting so as to shut out any opportunity to ask questions.
Being a long time fan of LP for her smarts and experience, that bush league move surprised me and shook my faith in her at that moment.
Although I think the following ASM was better (recollection is foggy) while still remote, I’d prefer to have them physically with the shareholders to preclude the bums rush.
Hopefully we will get TLD and other news before the ASM anyway and a non quiet period ASM !
Marzan has new, young and smart Minions, not those Old Dumb Minions
We, as in society and government, are apparently teaching our young that:
+ people in government positions can trade positions without care of conflict of interest (and appearance of conflict - LOL,)
+make tons of money by hook or crook if you are a big dog in the market itself (MM) knowing the SEC won’t acknowledge or maybe give a light slap of the wrist for appearances (but throw Martha Stewart in jail as a token example,) and
+ powerful people can often do as they please
In short, that the ends justify the means!
With respect to nwbo, it’s any means are game to profit the shorts, truth and patients be darned!
Those of us with compassion for our fellow people and who care about level playing fields and playing fair and honestly, and that the player’s dignity and feelings are more important than even winning, that will in fact pick and support a lesser player for the team rather than have those individuals sit out the game feeling bad about themselves, grow up to be like the fine people on this board!
I may have gotten a bit carried away
Very well put and your view of upcoming success and share price action very achievable if TLD and the detailed analyses are strong as we expect.
The stage is set with respect to support for the endpoints, historical statistically valid placebo, tumor death pseudo progression, understanding of GBM and subtypes and bio markers, and the overall need to expedite new treatments especially for deadly diseases. The phase3 trial clearly showing the big survival tail as well punctuating efficacy!
The time is right, right now!
So true wise!
Thanks so much! I’ve lived a blessed life for which I’m grateful thank God.
Thank you!
Thank goodness for those long term holds that grew to more than 10 baggers, because I went through a crazy trading period that even included a boom and bust trade in Dimples Diapers on the Vancouver exchange!
I think I still have a sample diaper that I was sent by investor relations. Ed Begley Jr was a celebrity supporter because the Dimples Diaper was supposed to be ecologically friendly as a convenient reusable diaper.
I was up from about $3 to $8 per share going into a weekend and the Barrons guy decimated the investment that weekend. The stock gapped down on Monday and went bust shortly afterwards.
Hopefully any coverage of nwbo by Barrons will be positive!
Warren Buffet is one of my investing heros although I don’t remember knowing about him way back then, and he was probably not well known then with his fortune making still largely ahead of him.
I know the Buffet story that he also bought his first investment at age 11. That only confirmed that I have underachieved
While I did ok on my own, in the 1980’s I was fully aware of Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway, and decided that since I wasn’t beating him I would join him. So I started tracking what he was buying and selling and scrutinizing these to derive what I would follow him into and out of.
This simple strategy served me well, buying and keeping/reinvesting in Coke and Amex, buying and following him out of Freddie Mac and Petrochina, buying and keeping Berkshire B shares, buying the railroad before Buffet bought the whole thing, buying BYD (BYDDY), BAC, and more.
I don’t understand why Calpers is trying to replace Buffet as CEO of Berkshire? He may be “mature “ and he may have had a slow patch, but surely they jest. And stop calling me Sherley!!!
PM your not far off with the E Trade baby!
I was more like 11 or 12, asking my mother to take me to the Merrill Lynch office in downtown Brooklyn by train from near Coney Island (Bath Beach) to open a custodial account for me.
My early trades included Pan Am, and Alexander’s, trading in/out a number of times. Later on I made a quick gain on Subaru when you could buy the car for $1995, making a quick $600 gain on top of a $400 investment for 100 shares. If I had kept the hundred shares they would have been worth about $60,000 not too many years later. Lesson learned - the most gains come from holding good company shares long term!
Thanks Bio, yes I’ve been invested and watching every twist and turn of the stock market since the mid sixties, and been through little and big bull and bear markets. Been down about 70% and built back and five fold beyond, however I had the decades to recover and prosper.
I’m that thick in the middle baby boomer (age wise and waist line wise) and retired a few years as a result of an offer I couldn’t refuse.
Although I’ve put off withdrawing from my largely stock retirement accounts, I will need to and forced to take withdrawals (by Uncle Sam) in less than a handful of years.
It’s taking some getting used to living on essentially fixed income instead of the increasing salary, bonuses and company stock, and bank balances that are reducing.
No worries, things have been and should continue to be fine financially if we don’t splurge too much and don’t become house poor building our retirement dream house.
Nwbo has been a high risk high reward binary outcome investment from day 1, more than a dozen years ago and is the largest single bet in a pre-revenue company I’ve stuck with by far!
Like every long time long on this board we continually do due diligence and digest each breadcrumb both good and bad, and I have continued to arrive at the conclusion that nwbo is worth the risk because I believe that DCVax will not fail imho.
Having been orphaned by cancer and losing many family and friends and friends of friends to one form or another of this scourge, including several from GBM, I began reading about the various types of the disease and treatments, until I came upon DCVax/nwbo and personalized immunotherapy treatments, but mostly DCVax for its safety and quality of life attributes.
In my opinion the absence of the debilitating side effects and risks, compared to the other treatments, should be reason enough to approve DCVax even if OS weren’t extended at all, and a no brainer (pun not intended) if any OS extension at all result.
While the Tecentriqs immunotherapy was reducing my mom’s tumors while actually making her feel better it was wonderful. When the tumors reversed and she had to try anti vgef and then I believe a CAR-T, with multiple debilitating side effects, the value of a DCVax minimal side effects profile really hit home.
GLTA and thanks again Bio
Of course we all gain a bunch of IQ points if/when nwbo rockets soon!
Your wisdom and experience is evident in your approach.
I’ve been in the market for about 55 years and recently went from feeling like I finally understood stock market investment to the current humbling realization that the market is teaching me an old lesson again, that everyone looks like a genius in a rising market but a lot fewer are wearing knickers when the tide goes out like now.
Investing actively is fun for me, however like most entertainment I pay a price for it when you consider the following:
Just buying the market in the form of the S&P500 would have trounced all the active management I’ve done, which has been great compared to non equity investments except possibly real estate.
Josh Brown on CNBC just pointed out that the strongest and biggest tech stocks (Microsoft, google, etc) have just given back all their gains relative to the S&P500 going back to 2018. If one just bought the S&P500 you’d be at the same place as riding the roller coaster and taking greater risk than the great FANG type stocks (and yes, the huge growth stocks currently make up about 25% of the index)!
As has been stated, it may be difficult to sell their shareholders on an acquisition to pay $10-20 per share now with the nwbo sp at almost a buck.
I agree with you regarding the partnership route if nwbo can be kept in strong managerial hands, since I assume LP is going to want to transition into a more leisurely life style.
I will gladly take a good BO or partnerships that would get the nwbo share price to $20 and higher, and any win is infinitely better than a failure, especially for what the consequences in the fight against cancer would be!
The structure of a buyout matters to me, such as all stock or at least half stock in the acquiring company, so not to be forced to realize the full capital gain and gives one the flexibility of gains and timing of the gains.
If the acquirer is a good long term investment paying a decent BP dividend one can reap a sizable and growing dividend stream and share price appreciation.
For example if one is holding 100,000 nwbo shares, a $20/share BO could conceivably yield $2M in shares of a BP like a Merck paying between 3%-5% dividend, or $60k - $100k annual dividend that may grow every year or two.
Then if the acquirer is able to realize the great potential of the DCVax platform , for example growing the value from the $20B acquisition to $120B, that’s significant growth contribution to the valuation of the acquirer in let’s say 5 years, presumably with 10-20 years of significant sales.
Looks like a retirement plan to me!
Or younger hot shot investors might want to cash out and pay the gains taxes and reinvest for higher potential returns.
Sounds good?