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"the commons own this co....1.8 billion shares ,p's only 3 million ,people need to get their numbers straight"
Because there's more o/s of commons than P's the commons own WaMu?
Is there a way to verify that Willingham didn't scoop up post-seizure pref's and bonds that he already flipped?
I do agree w/you that commons will get something: .50-2.00 at most. The more I think about the examiner hearing delay the more I feel that Susman's going to settle this thing out of court where all classes will see payouts.
I don't think SG can consider anything less than 90%FV paid out to pref's and $1 to commons to be a win in his book. AIMO
Thoughts?
Thanks Franconeli for that quote.
It is very clear that negotiations for a real settlement are underway; here is my logic: Susman knows his job is for equity to see enough money for commons to get paid. The quickest way to complete this job would be to negotiate a settlement for all equity holders to be paid. The backdoor route would be to get the examiner. I doubt Susman would agree to a delay unless there were serious enough negotiations for all parties to be paid. If all equity holders are paid then pref's get paid in full. Therefore P's and K's are gold right here. AIMO
Steve
Reptile
Thanks. I've heard people saying that the $8/share offer would be worth roughly $4/share after dilution. But like you said, TPG's capital injection should, in theory, prop the price back up. The caveat is that the JPM offer--I believe--was below WaMu's supposed book value so even the $8BB injection should be discounted because it failed to support deteriorating assets and prop WaMu's tier one capital requirements.
My point is that at the price of P's and U's, as of yesterday's close, the market would be factoring in the U's to receive higher than $5.52/share for them to be a better value than the P's. I think the market will eventually catch onto this disconnect and either the pref's will explode higher (similar to the H's in Dec '09) or the U's will start tanking. My guess is the former. AIMO
GLTA
How much dilution occurred upon the TPG infusion?
What would the $8/share offer be worth now after dilution? Did the amount of shares double making it worth about $4/share in current share count or has the o/s been even more diluted than that?
Thanks
Steve
Chiron,
You should paste your comment on the U board. It's important to keep everything in perspective. Maybe we'll start to see a flow into preferreds once people start taking their UQ profits off the table.
William,
In all fairness, you did refer to your relative as a mole. I think it's great that you have connections that can alert WaMuland of any big meetings taking place at Weil.
But if you're going to guarantee that something will happen in an hour, even if you're right, it would probably be better off for your sake and your relative's to not publicly announce it. Keep in mind there are hundreds if not thousands of people reading these posts and many if not all are still disgusted after losing their asses on March 12th.
If you're the reason this shot up yesterday-more power to you. I hope the MM's lost money covering their shorts yesterday. It baffles me how badly these prices are manipulated by being "walked down" to stimulate demand.
Steve
The fact that this administration hates Wall Street and Corporate greed/profits, makes me also believe that FDIC will turn on JPM eventually once the honeymoon is over. It will start w/protests then campaigning politicians will join to try to snag some extra votes, then not too long later it will be cool to hate JPM just like Goldman. AIMO
Steve
Scott,
Normally I would agree with you but it was hardly a pump by the site. The article gave a technical range that traders can use to spot a breakout if it goes above 20 cents. Also, the other 3 stocks that it "pumped" FCEL, CIT, and ICO all closed down today. Will46's advice to hold based on a mole was the pivot point where the stock took off. Most likely it was exacerbated by MM short covering and day traders that follow unusual movements in volume. Of course it helps that WaMu is consistently on the top 15 board of I-Hub so it's probably on many traders' watch lists.
We've all seen this type of movement before where there is no reason to sell after good news while we wait for a new court hearing. Last time we were waiting for the next hearing after good news, this went from .27 on Wed March 4th to an intra-day high of .70 on Mon March 8th.
At 18.4 cents/share for the U's and $33/share for the P's, the U's would have to see higher than $5.52/share where they would be a better investment right now than if the P's saw face value of $1,000. The caveat is the U's move much faster than the P's and are a great trading vehicle to quickly get to the point where you're playing with the House's money.
Yes, last time we heard an endless amount of chatter about a settlement where equity would benefit like we are hearing now and we got slapped in the face. This time feels different b/c we've endured through the initial low-ball offer. I missed out on the last run and I'm not going to watch a 4x increase happen in front of me again. This seems too easy to predict. The only thing that has stopped the momentum in the past has been negative news in court and I feel that we can't get any more backhands after staring into the abyss since mid-March.
Like I said last week on the P board, I feel that everything has changed after listening to the latest court hearing and I am now recommending the pref's and a lesser percentage of commons to family and friends to hold long-term-something I haven't done since middle December. Good luck to all. Of course, AIMO.
Steve
Agree 100%. That's about a 30X increase from here not including dividends in arrears. I think we all can agree that we'd be happy with that. If dividends are reinstated and shares not canceled, we could see this thing go north of 1,100/share because of the high dividend rate of 7.75%. AIMO
Steve
What has your "mole" been saying all along? Is that how you got into buying commons in the first place? Is your relative an attorney?
Who is paying Susman? Is it coming from a couple rich investors' pockets or is he working on commission?
Tombrady, do you understand why they're delaying? This is potentially a 20-40B case that thousands around the world have a vested interest in. Why speed things up and potentially screw up/miss something a la the reason why WaMu was gifted to JPM? If you're in this until the end then who cares about a couple extra months? My personal sentiment has now shifted and I will begin recommending the pref's again to my family and friends--something I haven't done since December. AIMO
Pretty sure this was expected by most people. Your price points infer that everyone invested/held based on the idea that there would be a substantial change to the terms of the settlement for the FDIC to approve. We don't know if the terms changed or not, but even if they didn't, the judge still has to approve.
Even if the judge approves there's still money for the P's per Rosen's comment. No doubt no matter what Susman will appeal and hit hard with heavy allegations.
Any scenario commons are toast and pref's see some money. We knew this all along but dreamed of face for pref's and a couple bucks to commons.
AIMO.
My Question to Ilene
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50373989
Her Answer
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50374058
I personally think Susman had no choice but to say yes--Ilene said she kinda felt the same way--but we'll see. If they get money most of us won't have to work anymore.
The FDIC doesn't give a crap or the SEC?
That's why I don't understand the idea that if the FDIC has dirt on the directors the SEC won't get involved in a criminal suit. I don't know the relationship that the FDIC and SEC has with each other but it would make sense for one gov't entity to report to the other if they had known or should have known that the directors had committed fraud adversely affecting thousands of shareholders.
It's gotta be short covering going on in the commons on a technical bounce. There's much more volume over there and money changing hands. This is a perfect opportunity for them to get out and move into preferreds in my opinion.
If the FDIC has dirt on the directors wouldn't the SEC come in and go after them even if there was an agreement for shareholders to not go after them?
Do you think JPM would lose all of the WaMu assets that they "purchased" or just some of them?
So when should everything be done based on all the court dates? Was it late July? Provided there's no appeals obviously.
LOL. She is ridiculously fun to watch.
I'm just getting a completely different feel than what we've been used to since the March lows and I can't help but to think of the Great Depression stock charts again. After the crash there was a recovery then a sharp double dip that took several years to recover from.
I hope I'm wrong about my feeling. Of course I'm staying long my P's and K's because they don't follow the market.
Watching CNBC I would be extremely happy w/a 20% payout. I'm worried about another self-fulfilled prophesy of a double dip in the markets.
That's why I haven't. Just making sure there's not a compelling reason that I'm missing out on.
Did you specifically say commons or equity? It sounded like Rosen feels that there's money for pref's and not commons.
True, but he has no choice but to say there is. If this conversation did happen, and he said "no, not for commons" he'd be fired by now by the EC. I'm not bashing, just sick of trying to invest based on others emotion and not concrete facts.
I hope Susman is correct.
I'm not trying to be a jerk but you made a bold announcement for everyone to buy but you can't back it up. I am looking for reasons to buy commons off of this dip but I'm not getting a reasonable answer.
Sounds like you would recommend to your grandma to buy commons, I'm just trying to see what you would tell her after she asks "why"?
What are your estimates that the commons and preferreds should see?
Just so we're on the same page- you believe there's value based on the fact that WaMu should get 100% of the NOL's? Based on what I've heard that's about 50-70cents then to commons after pref's are paid face?
Barnacle Bill said that this is a buying opportunity and stated that the FDIC isn't on board. I interpret that to mean that there is value in WaMu b/c the FDIC won't get on board until there's more money to WaMu equity. My question was: How much money would it take for them to be "on board" with a settlement.
Maybe he thinks that the FDIC won't be on board unless pref's get face and commons get 2/share. I don't know. So I'd like to hear what Barnacle Bill or anyone else has to say.
That doesn't answer my question. People are stating that the FDIC isn't on board, and therefore commons have value. I just don't see the FDIC flipping 6-8B to WaMu so that commons can get $1/share recovery. I would like to know what it would take for the FDIC to "be on board" so that commons have value.
How much money do you think the FDIC would want awarded to WaMu for them to "be on board"? Do you think it's enough to cover all preferreds and then some to spill over to commons?
When Rosen said that commons won't get anything and pref's will get a negligible amount at best it's obvious to think that pref's will actually see some money. He also said that 7.5B will cover the pref's which in no way is possible according to him.
I hate to say this, but he knows what's going on better than any of us and I think it's time to listen. Money in commons are scratch tickets and money in pref's is an investment.
If what Rosen said was a total lie, Susman would have spoken up and said equity should see a big recovery and that he's not worried about speeding up the hearings for the sake of preferreds recovering more of the 4B deposit interest.
All My Opinion based on what I heard today from the hearing.
I honestly hope I am wrong, trust me. Sounded like Rosen was trying to say that recovery on preferreds depends on the interest of the 4B deposit.
In my opinion, Rosen inadvertently said sell commons and buy preferreds.
Sounds like everyone in the courtroom understands that Susman is working for the recovery of preferreds b/c it's obvious that commons are toast.
Stated certainly nothing for commons after preferreds. "Certainly nothing beyond the 7.5B to preferreds..."
They only made 10MM off shorting. That's enough to pay Susman for the next month. 10MM would be WaMu's damages against them anything more would be a punitive damage which wouldn't be awarded to shareholders.