Please do your own DD using FA +TA
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Wahz,
Seeing as you asked for a trading range, I'd set the upper comp range limit to around the 2350 area. The longer term bottom may be on the long term trend line from the Saavy chart below. My top would be around the end of 04 to January 05. Would that fit into your wasteland timing? Right now I think the recent rally is topping out and should run into some summer chop soon. Some smaller caps can continue to run here though. A bottom this fall could retest the lows but I'm thinking the gap at 1280 could be it. The market rarely does what I tell it to do BTW.
Fletch
I agree with you that the cars are international now. I always was a GM man but after my new 74 Blazer's tranny blew up with only 1600 miles on it, I started to wonder why. I bought GM until my first Honda Accord in 84. I'm now driving an Accord Coup with a 94 EX 4 door between. All have been made in Ohio.
I now love Honda's,
Fletch
Hi porscha,
Most Z's were dogs on the street back then. They almost all came with 3.73 rear end and the close ratio 2.20 first gear. The cars had terrible wheel hop off the line but didn't burn much due to the low torque high horsepower engine. Winding up to 7000 RPM was easy for the solid lifter cam but keeping the plugs clean was difficult on the street.
My car has the 2.54 first gear wide ratio transmission and with the 4:11 rear end it ran right out of the box. Pure stock it smoked a 440 Six Pack and beat a 428 Cobrajet to 90. The 68 Cobrajet did get me in the upper end but after the headers went on he no longer wanted to run.
Those small block chevyies loved lots of advance so that the engine didn't want to start at times. Once, after filling up with Sunoco 260, it wouldn't turn over, so I jumped out, popped the hood, grabbed the distributor and retarded the timing slightly.....started right up. The attendant scratched his head and said he'd never seen anything like that LOL. This engine also had real high compression, with the #8 hole always over 220 psi.
After driving the car only in the summer for a couple of years the car was drag raced in F stock a couple more and it's been garaged ever since.
Every once in a while I start it up or drive it a little but it mostly collects dust. I'm not much for shows BTW. I would like to some day put the traction bars, headers and large tires back onto it.....just to blast it some.
Fletch
My original 69 Z28 sits in the garage. Garnet red with black strips and interior. I ordered the car with 4 wheel disc brakes and hounds tooth interior but it didn't come in that way. It does have the wood grain interior, center console mounted gauges, 4:11 rear end and wide ratio hard launching 4 speed tranny. Back then I had an Accel distributor, 850 double pumper, Creager SS mags, Lakewood traction bars, Hooker headers and used to change plugs, reset valves weekly. Back to factory condition now and I have the protecto plate I signed in 69.
It's not for sale,
Fletch
Zeev,
I bought some AGM near the low today. The last earnings were up and it has over two months of volume or 25% of it's float short. The chart looks like it could be wedging for a hopeful move up. What are your thoughts on a short squeeze on it? At least the trading box has an upward bias to it now.
Thanks,
Fletch
Zeev,
Does this chart have a cup with handle look to it? Lots of cups, bowls, breakouts. BTW, MAXF is making new highs <g>.
Thanks,
Fletch
Longer term chart ajtj? Here compliments of Saavy. I know this isn't zackly what you had in mind but it does show the bubble real nice. Is THE bottom on that long term trend line?
Time will tell,
Fletch
Larry,
Just how over bought did we get in that rally? Lets take a look. Is it over? My thoughts are......yes. Interestingly, not a good bottom to build it on but the war evidently threw normal TA indicators off. I would think that if we went higher than we should have, the next low could be lower?
Summer is near,
Fletch
Larry,
You finally got your $BPCOMPQ to go negative! I myself couldn't believe how long it went up.....relentless huh?
Did you notice the chart pattern on this? BFT looks like a classic cup with handle and we are at the pivot point. Lots of good charts out there. I'm still in OCA BTW.
Fletch
Reuters
Japan Stocks Lower After Resona Rescue
Sunday May 18, 8:17 pm ET
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese stocks opened lower on Monday with Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and other banks falling after the government had to move over the weekend to rescue Resona Holdings Inc.The government said after an emergency meeting on Saturday that it had agreed to throw a life-line to Resona after Japan's fifth-biggest bank said its capital adequacy ratios had fallen below legal limits needed to stay in business.
The key Nikkei average was down 21.72 points or 0.27 percent at 8,095.57 as of 0005 GMT. Shares in Resona were ask-only with a glut of sell orders at 48 yen, down 10 yen or 17 percent from the previous close.
The broader TOPIX index was down 0.5 percent at 815.08.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030518/markets_japan_stocks_3.html
Sell in May and go away?
Fletch
Hi Twister,
It sure looks like you bought it at a good time. I'll just watch FSTW for a while myself. I hate to buy any longs this time of year "sell in May and go away". I'm not sure we will tank hard but I feel we're close to a top right now.
Good luck,
Fletch
FSTW is hitting a little resistance here around 12 but did hold up well on a down day.
For those interested in SARS, from the World Health Organization. It sounds like SARS is out into the country side, where it would be much harder to contain. BTW, this wasn't easy to cut-n-paste-edit, as it did contain some unknown symbols.
Fletch
Update 45 - Situation in China, more than 6000 cases globally, areas with recent local transmission.
2 May 2003
Situation in China
China reported 176 new probable SARS cases today, 96 of which were in Beijing. These numbers bring the cumulative total in China to 3799 and 1636 in the capital. Eleven deaths were reported, accounted for a cumulative total of 181 deaths.
Inner Mongolia reported a jump of 26 in probable SARS cases, for a total of 180 cases in that province. Other provinces reporting new cases include Hebei (14), Guangdong (9), Jilin (5) and Shanxi (4).
A WHO field visit to one large hospital not officially designated as a SARS hospital demonstrated the urgent need to review strategies for infection control procedures. Current infection control practices in emergency rooms may need to be modified, since health care workers continue to be infected. Among front-line health workers, 15 new cases were reported in Beijing. There are now 300 infected health care workers. 9 more cases among health workers were also reported in Tianjin.
WHO team members in Beijing continue working with officials from the city's municipal health authorities to analyze epidemiological trends, but much missing data remain to be collected, and reports from case investigations must still be completed. The public needs to have more information on when and where infection is happening, said Dr Henk Bekedam, WHO's representative in China. We don't know that right now, case investigations must still be completed.
Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 6054 probable SARS cases with 417 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 207 new cases and 26 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in Canada (2), China (11), Hong Kong SAR (8), and Taiwan(5).
Taiwan, which has a rapidly evolving outbreak, reported today a cumulative total of 100 probable cases, with 11 new cases compared with yesterday. Eight SARS deaths have occurred in Taiwan. Canada reported 2 new probable cases today.
Areas with recent local transmission
As of today, WHO is now issuing daily lists of countries having areas where local transmission has occurred within the past 20 days. Local transmission occurs when one or more probable cases of SARS most likely acquired their infection locally, regardless of the setting, as opposed to cases in which infection was acquired in another country. The new list, which replaces the previous list of affected areas, also stratifies the extent of local transmission into low, medium, and high categories.
http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/wrap/linker.jsp?rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fcnn.netscape.cnn.com%2Fns%2Fnews%2F....
Hey Larry,
Just so you can watch the $ and the POG. It hasn't gotten to your price yet but getting very close.
Fletch
Hi Hank,
FSTW had a very good run. I'll admit to profit taking too soon but did miss the recent tumble. Who knew internet plays would be that hot! Is their future still bright, with increasing earnings from here on out, or is a weak quarter or two in store?
Fletch
Looks like 10 is very possible now.
The dollar and POG. POG breaking up....or is it just a whip saw?
Fletch
Zeev,
My longs are getting l o n g in the tooth LOL. IYTO we must be topping out here? Gee and SSFT was doing a nice chart stair step until today too. Will the Grand Nassacre proceed now????
The QQQ volatility index looks ready to bust up.
Fletch
wahz,
I found this link on a friend's site.
Wall Street Bear Turns More Bullish!
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street, take note! One of your biggest market bears is donning bullish garb.
http://tinyurl.com/8wo2
Fletch
Zeev,
There is a news article on dividends and an "A" list of companies that are good at giving them.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDADEB863%2D0150%2D42E6%2DA8E2%2DF67DDB15B2AA%7D&am....
Go to bottom for the list of tickers.
Interestingly, a lot of these are very low in their ranges on a three year chart. Some are even below 9/11 right now. A lot of high quality mutual funds are close to all time lows as well. I'm wondering your thoughts on this, as to how much further they can fall from here?
Thanks,
Fletch
PS I'm not questioning your market targets, just noting how some quality issues are very low already.
RGLD may have become a weak canary, from recent earnings. At least they were very strong up until the earnings came out. To those fellow miner players, I wasn't happy when the miners didn't follow the POG up but thought it was very bullish when they didn't fall apart on the recent tumble to 342. I myself fear a gold sell off when the market gets real weak, when everything gets dumped. Maybe the miners will run up a little now but hard to tell.
Fletch
BTW, sorry your still in this one.
POG up
HUI down
The whipsaw buck
Zeev,
I'm not sure I've heard your short, mid and longer term thoughts on some of the Chinese plays? NTE, SOHU and NTES sure look like longer term winners but not much can withstand the power of a Grand Nassacre<g>. NTE has held up very well so far. IYTO, are they just a market fad or good longer term prospects?
Much thanks,
Fletch
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nte.html
A little info. on AGM and the hedgies.
Fletch
Hedge fund probe may make investors shift course.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 22, 2003 4:57 PM
- Reuters U.S. Company News
By Svea Herbst-Bayliss
BOSTON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. financial regulators are making a big splash in the hedge fund industry with a probe that could sour investors on certain funds and signal that managers' freewheeling days are coming to an end.
New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is working alongside the Securities and Exchange Commission to determine if some hedge funds broke securities laws by publishing research on the Internet.
News of the investigation comes only weeks after Wall Street firms were fined for pumping up stock prices with phony research and it has set the $600 billion hedge fund industry abuzz at a time its managers are wooing Main Street clients.
Companies like bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI) and Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM) turned to regulators, saying that hedge funds like Gotham Partners Management Co., Aquamarine Fund Inc. and Tilson Capital Partners had published misleading research reports intended to push their stock price down.
Hedge funds differ from mutual funds by being able to bet against a company's future by borrowing its stock only to sell it and hope to replace the borrowed stock at a lower price. Last year, so-called short-sellers were among the most successful hedge fund managers, cashing in on the market's decline.
"We contacted the SEC and gave them the names of several hedge funds and now we are waiting to see what will happen. We hope the SEC and the attorney general take the appropriate steps and get things done," said Jerome Oslick, general counsel at Farmer Mac.
It may take months for attorneys to sort through the documents they are requesting from these funds, and lawyers say it is anyone's best guess on what will happen next.
THE NEW WORLD
Lawyers say selling short and talking about it is not illegal even though it is unusual for hedge funds, which aren't permitted to advertise through newspaper ads or even on public Web sites.
As the probe drags on, hedge fund industry experts say one thing may change very quickly -- investors like pension funds could start to steer away from short sellers.
Last year, some short sellers were heralded as heroes for having asked tough questions before Enron Corp. (ENRNQ) collapsed. Now many are seen as heartless villains who pounce on companies to drive their share prices down.
"The world of short sellers boils down to the pros, the wildmen, and the amateurs. The talent hasn't kept up and the short side is where the tale gets told," said Tom Wright, a spokesman for Bulldog Capital Management, which runs the short-biased Dancing Bear fund.
While mutual funds can lose only the amount of money investors put in, hedge funds can lose an almost limitless amount if the market turns against them.
And this makes investment committees very nervous.
"This is going to drive home the point that you can't just invest with people you meet at cocktail parties. You need to put your money with mature adults who know what they are doing," said one investor who chose not to put money with Gotham when its managers came calling.
The founding partners at some of the funds being probed started off shortly after graduating from Harvard Business School with money from former professors.
More far reaching, this probe might also prompt the SEC to speed up a review of the industry it started last summer.
At the moment, hedge funds are largely exempt from regulations because they are private partnerships with generally fewer than 100 wealthy investors. That may change.
Funds may be asked to register as investment advisers so regulators can audit them regularly or they may be asked to simply file information about themselves with regulators.
"I don't think anyone is saying all hedge funds should be as regulated as mutual funds. But there is a general feeling that hedge funds do need more regulation and the SEC has its antennae up about that," said Geoffrey Kenyon, partner at Boston-based law firm Goodwin Procter.
© Reuters 2003. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/news/articles.asp?guid={024A90CD-0F4C-4E67-B45C-E55756589688}&n...
A long term gold chart. Is that a short squeeze they had starting back in 76? Can we have another?
Fletch
Monthly Semi-Log Gold Bar Chart - Since 1974
Ten major Gold turning points are shown on this chart.
Yea MH,
Nothing personal against Abby, just her kind and or associates, if you will. You know.....the vile TV screen stock pumpers. The ones we've all grown to disrespect LOL.
Thanks again for the link,
Fletch
Does she lie or just from Planet of the Apes??????
Some charts on gold and the dollar, for any interested.
Fletch
Forming a nice cup on the 10 year.
Zeev,
Besides gold, defense, COCO and INVN is their any particular plays that you like during this first of three stages of the "Grand Nasacre"? Also, are there any cores that may get hit hard and if I may ask. What cores or value orphans do you hold long, during these perceived down periods?
Much thanks,
Fletch
PS Do you see any final run in bios and or IDPH?
I like how J P Morgan Chase thinks gold can go up this high.
Fletch
Gold, miners get Wall St. attention
JP Morgan technician sees $430 an ounce possible.
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Wall Street is starting to upgrade its opinions of gold and gold miners, a forlorn group that is trying to shake off years of torpor.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...
IMO we can see both. My thoughts are on down 25% first. Then by this time next year, I'd like to think we can see 25% higher. I'm a bull at heart but I think the bear has more left in it's tank. The down 25% has the edge, if I had to pick one.
Fletch
Hi SM,
It's in my profile and I just edited the morph out of the post. In IE, right click on it and copy the properties address. To post it you do the same as for a chart.
Fletch
Dollar hit 101 and bounced for now.
Gold plays weak today but POG only down a little.
Fletch
<<isn't shorting forbidden in a tax-preferred account?>>
M_e
No,
My 401K is in a Brokerage account with Fidelity. I can short easily by buying the short funds RYVNX or USPIX in it. My advisor has a release form that would allow shorting individual tickers, if I so desired.
Fletch
What to expect in tech in 2003
(FORTUNE.COM) -- Expect a desultory 2003 for the technology industry. Businesses will begin to extract more productivity gains from technology, but the hardware and software industries will not benefit accordingly. Corporate customers drive most tech spending, and they will still be thinking more about getting value out of what they've already got than spending money on new stuff. With sales growth anemic, only the strong vendors will survive. Consolidation, especially in software, will be a major trend of 2003. The recent purchases of Rational Software by IBM and Precise Software Solutions by Veritas are the tip of the iceberg. Expect also more acquisitions by cash-rich Microsoft.
Expected to do well
All is not grim, however. Here are a few companies I expect will do well in 2003:
• AMD: continues to challenge Intel with well-conceived designs for PC microprocessors.
• BEA Systems: middleware for enterprise software widely regarded as the best, despite vigorous competition from IBM.
• Borland: multi-platform application development tools are perfectly positioned.
• Dell: taking market share in every area of standardized hardware, including storage and networking.
• Logitech: unstoppable maker of consumer PC peripherals.
• Mercury Interactive: software performance measurement extracts value from what companies already have.
• Nokia: cellphones are hot and this remains the undisputed leader.
• Salesforce.com: its Net-delivered sales automation is defining a new approach. Expect an IPO this year.
• Veritas: storage software for the multi-platform future.
http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/ptech/01/01/fortune.ff.tech.expect/index.html
---------------------------------------------------------------
At least there is a bright spot or two here and he likes MERQ.
Fletch
Zeev,
MAXF is having a big day and broke over 7! Would you say it's now started a higher trading box or is this a one day wonder that should be sold into IYTO?
Thanks,
Fletch
Speaking of gold and the dollar. Maybe a little rest for the POG?
Fletch
I'm wondering if gold will pull back some to allow lower entries. It does look like a lot of the board has gold fever right now. Most of the time this is a signal to sell some IMVHO. I think I'll put in some low bids at gaps and hope the dollar rallies some.
Fletch
This one's been on a nice run, with a couple of gaps on it.
Thanks Larry,
I read your post but didn't catch the edit until later. A couple of questions for you if I may. Are you using the StockCharts RSI indicator and if so on what setting? Do you use the RSI for sell signals as well? Below shows a buy at 30 or below and sell at 70 or above. This strategy looks like it worked very well on recent swing trades.
Thanks,
Fletch
Zeev,
Talking about shorting, I went on the Nasdaq site and looked at short interest. Some where shockingly highly shorted. Examples below are all as of Dec 13, 2002. Look at Farmer Mac or AGM and wonder what do the shorts know.
Ticker..Short Interest..Avg Daily Share Volume..Days to Cover
AGM......3,380,562............48,642................69.50
POOL.....5,879,074...........188,531................31.18
COO......8,835,734...........328,442................26.90
PII........3,153,156...........274,863................11.47
USPI.....4,194,056...........382,089................10.98
CCMP.....9,641,516.........1,184,159.................8.14
BLUD.....1,521,004...........190,106.................8.00
TARO.....2,241,350...........282,611.................7.93
TTIL.....1,182,426...........170,307.................6.94
SFD......2,767,036...........449,721.................6.15
WDFC.......218,582............45,123.................4.84
INVN.....4,368,983...........974,917.................4.48
For a little comparison, some old shorted favorites that aren't so short right now.
Ticker..Short Interest..Avg Daily Share Volume..Days to Cover
BRCD....11,882,788........24,035,458.................1.00
BRCM....16,431,846........13,506,486.................1.22
QLGC....16,252,192........13,261,055.................1.23
AMGN....20,032,740........14,617,343.................1.37
ELX........6,267,307.........4,145,816.................1.51
MERQ.....6,794,013.........3,837,668.................1.77
GNSS.....6,144,478.........3,050,518.................2.01
JNPR....30,849,361........14,410,194.................2.14
NVDA....24,190,948........11,268,196.................2.15
SNDK....12,054,752.........3,812,046.................3.16
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp
Happy Holiday's
Fletch
Hi Hank,
FSTW is going well but others aren't as strong, so I'm mostly looking for exits on plays to tell you the truth. I guess some think we may still get some seasonal strength but it's really trying my patience, waiting for any strength that is. I myself think we may just keep grinding down....The never ending bear....NG.
Gold and some Chinese tickers are about the only strong plays besides FSTW that I know of.
Do you think Firstwave's earnings will be up this next report? If FSTW beats expectations, I'm sure there will be some more upside ggg.
Fletch
Zeev,
I've been looking at some charts and a few are interesting. SNDK looks ready to move, with wedge poised.
NXTL has held up real well to the sell off.
And then one of the Chinese breakouts.
Thoughts?
Fletch
Thanks LG,
My plan was a buy around 1.50 with stop at 1.40 but you talked me out of it. A drop to 1.40 would have broken the wedge it's building. I too don't like the under 5 and usually try to stay in the above 10 area.
Thanks again,
Fletch