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Agree to disagree.
I can already hear politicians "campaigning" that JPM took advantage of a hysteric situation coupled with the FDIC's lack of knowledge and consequently demand JPM to pay at least 60-70% of FMV of those assets at the time of the seizure.
It would be similar to their constant Wall Street bashing blaming big banks on the subprime crisis and taking advantage of the honest and uninformed...except this time they did it to the government.AIMO
I could also see the examiner uncover assets that were given to JPM but shouldn't have (on top of the tax refunds) that could go back to the WaMu estate. Like some additional investments and/or subsidiaries that could easily be transferred back. Again AIMO
Voodoo
I love it when people say things like "you need to do more research" as if the other person doesn't know anything. It's a great way to put yourself above others.
Do you really think that the Obama administration is going to shell out 30BB while JPM continues to profit? Did you really think that the government would give an equity share to the UAW union as part of the GM bankruptcy? In case you haven't watched the news the last couple of years, this administration hates big business-especially Wall Street
Now that they have the power to take out the holding company because of FinReg it would be a separate transaction.
I just don't see the FDIC paying anything. They don't have the money and they're really controlled by Obama. I think it would have to come from JPM since they've profited immensely from the WaMu portfolio. AIMO
Where in the video do you see that Cramer has inside information?
Anyone considered the idea that the FDIC could/will make JPM buy the WaMu holding company for $30-50BB to make up for the killer deal they got and to settle this mess?
Nice to see a little media coverage over the petition...
http://www.cmemarkets.com/v3/2010/08/06/dj-wamu-bankruptcy-examiner-asks-court-for-subpoena-power-ap/
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2012556507_apdewashingtonmutualbankruptcy.html
A part of me feels that if JH's requests are granted then pref's are getting paid in full but this case will be dragged out further than we would like. AIMO
More facts that JPM tries to buy off attorneys. Lets hope that they don't get into the pocket of JH.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38597125
Edit: The trustee overseeing Dykstra's estate abruptly resigned last night. The trustee's office says that "the appearance of impropriety rose to a level" that they requested his resignation.
The impropriety was not revealed, but Dykstra's attorneys claim the trustee, Art Cisneros, was colluding with JP Morgan Chase, which holds the first mortgage on Dykstra's former mansion.
Here's some good evidence that JPM has no problem colluding with attorneys. Lets hope that they don't get into the pocket of JH.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38597125
Edit: The trustee overseeing Dykstra's estate abruptly resigned last night. The trustee's office says that "the appearance of impropriety rose to a level" that they requested his resignation.
The impropriety was not revealed, but Dykstra's attorneys claim the trustee, Art Cisneros, was colluding with JP Morgan Chase, which holds the first mortgage on Dykstra's former mansion.
I know his posts should get deleted but his account got deleted also. Oh well. On a WaMu related note, volume has picked up the last couple days. It would be interesting if we could find out who would be selling right now besides more short positions.
Just 10% away from today's lows...Plus how many people thought that before Rosen gave equity a bidet back in March?
I hope it never goes there because I feel it's either $500+ or bust with this and if it doesn't hit $25 then we're getting paid buddy.
JPM is currently holding in a 365m$ FDIC DC Court litigation award which belongs to the anchor savings dime warrants that was upheld by an appeals court. Current value estimated is correct. .47$ stock has should settle around 2.50$ sooner than later.
So the current litigation award of 365MM is worth .47/warrant but you think the litigation award will increase 5 fold to around 1.825BB?
If true can you tell me why?
Thanks
Steve
From Jmbell42 on the dimeq board:
Hey Steved_45,
Depending upon what you assume for legal fees, taxes, and expected payout, the best values available from the research performed here and elsewhere is that each DIME LTE is worth between $2.24 - $2.64.
We have seen estimates into the $3.00 range, but those assume that we get the additional $63 Million suggested by the appellate court and that the legal fees are highly reduced. Also, I think that they did some tricks with the tax gross-up.
At any rate, I think that the $2.24 - $2.64 is a reasonable, yet conservative price range.
The $0.64 cents that you quote perhaps assumes that the DIME LTW as a class will accept a 75% hair-cut in some sort of settlement offer.
I can't even begin to account for that using publicly available information. The only ones privy to that analysis would be Roesn/and or counsels for the LTWs.
I would say this: At current prices, the trading price is roughly 20-25% of the expected payout. This makes the DIME LTWs a potential 4-5 bagger, depending upon how things play out.
In the end, however, there are forces at play that could make this all moot and we are given the proverbial shaft by the legal system.
Hence, the huge discount to net present value.
Best,
Jared
So Rosen is representing these warrants as part of the WaMu litigation? I'm heavily invested in the WaMu pref's and right now he's trying to shaft us.
Who would pay out? JPM?
Where is the seniority in these warrants? Above WaMu pref's but below the Wahuq's?
Thanks
I couldn't find on the ibox what the potential value of each one of these warrants are worth. On the wampq board they say each warrant is worth about 65 cents. Is that true? If so, what has happened to make the market believe that these are worth 2/3 face value?
Basically, why would I put new money in today? Does the appointment of an examiner help the dime's case or does it not have anything to do with them?
Steve
You're assuming that they actually read AND understood the clause...
We all know they get phone calls and emails demanding that certain provisions be included for some b.s. reason and their aids just consent to it. AIMO
What is the relationship b/t the dime's and WaMu? Would they subordinate to wahuq but higher than pref's?
Also, what is the main strategy or probable reason behind someone that would be jumping in right now?
Thanks
Steve
Unfortunately it will only be a conspiracy theory unless the examiner comes out with a positive report for equity. Fortunately, we'll have a good idea what's going on in about a month. This is really an all or nothing case that the mass media would be reluctant to report on until concrete evidence is made public. If we are right, then the floodgates will hopefully open exposing the roles of the FDIC and JPM. It would make a great special report for CNBC like what they've done recently with Enron and the housing bust. No need for an investigative reporter when we got JH.
If I shorted 100 shares at 30 it'll look like a sell at 30. Conversely, If I covered my short at 28 it'll look like a buy at 28. So if short volume was 80% of volume the MM's are really trying to whack the bid down and keep it at a certain price.
I'm waiting for them to take it down to 25 so I can buy some more. PPS means nothing until the examiner report is completed. This could go to $10 or $200 in the mean time off of pure speculation.
AIMO
Did that answer your question?
Ryanngina, I believe you're referring to wahuq the capital trust. I'm talking about the actual corporate bonds that are trading at a little over par value.
I've been meaning to ask this for a while: how or what is the best way to buy wamu bonds?
I figure it would be a true hedge on my investment because it seems like WaMu will come out of bk and make a killer ROI for shareholders with all of those NOL carry forwards and performing subsidiaries.
Steve
I've been meaning to ask this for a while: how or what is the best way to buy wamu bonds?
I figure it would be a true hedge on my investment and seems like WaMu will come out and make a killer ROI with all of those NOL carry forwards.
Excellent article posted by Realtime on the U board for all to read.
Gives 2 examples of companies that tried to shaft equity in BK: 1 company ended up paying something to equity and the other didn't.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/202366-wamu-settlement-likely-to-fail-over-asset-disclosures
Great attitude buddy...
Thx you're smart enough to catch the contradiction. I'm definitely not betting that this is going to 0. I definitely feel that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity as an investment. On paper this is a no brainer but unfortunately our fate is in the hands of the government (THJMW). Otherwise these would be trading at the WaMu debt prices.
Thx you're smart enough to catch the contradiction. I'm definitely not betting that this is going to 0. I definitely feel that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity as an investment. On paper this is a no brainer but unfortunately our fate is in the hands of the government (THJMW). Otherwise these would be trading at the WaMu debt prices.
Whoops! I meant to say the former LOL. If I thought it was going to 0 I definitely would not be wasting my time on this board...
Strike, I don't have PM b/c I'm cheap LOL. I don't really believe that it's people doing the manipulation. Rather I believe it's all computers with their algorithms--basically what the overall market is at these days. I think a lot has to do with volume in comparison to the over all share count and float. The idea is to keep whacking the bid down by shorting to create more demand at a lower price. I'm not going to buy any more unless this goes to $25/share. I think it can get there if the pps keeps shrinking. If it blows up from here and I lost my chance then perfect--I'm rich. LOL
GLTA
Steve
IMO at 10k daily volume it's extremely easy to manipulate this stock. If we regularly saw 50,000 plus volume with this type of share float I think it would be a little more difficult to manipulate when there's more liquidity.
From what I've learned, MM manipulation can be compared to water. You can steer a boat to go wherever in a stagnant lake (little liquidity/volume) whereas it's much more difficult to steer a boat in multiple directions when the river is raging (lots of liquidity/volume).
Right now we're all in a row boat without oars and hoping for a nice gust of wind...AIMO
But to me it doesn't matter because I feel this is either going to $700/share or zero in the next couple months. My bet is on the latter. AIMO
Steve
I love how his opinion is based off something Susman would never say in a million years prior to an announcement...
Shorts aren't worried...they've been doing this for 2 years. They love a pps increase so they can short it and slam it back down. It's all controlled by computers anyway. People on this board have also said "shorts are worried" for the last 2 weeks and it's obvious based on the pps whose right and whose wrong. The MM's have absolutely turned this security into a cash cow. I don't think it matters if a 100k buy comes in or a 100k sell comes in b/c for every buyer there's a seller and this has been absolutely dead money for the last 4 months.
Think about it, if the MM's want to make money all they have to do is short some shares and drop the bid whenever they want. It's absolutely mind boggling how much money the MM's can make per day on this stock.
I'm surprised that The Street hasn't run a new article about WaMu as an update to what they were writing about in Dec. It would be good if they quoted Little Bear even if he's somewhat bearish b/c bad media is better than no media...
Can you tell that that was an actual buy and not the MM's covering a short?
I sincerely hope that's the case man. I'm only in pref's, but if commons get there $12-24, then I am perfectly happy getting $1,000/share for my P's. I have been tempted to flip the U's but this price action baffles me so I'm just waiting on the sidelines for the next massive short squeeze...
Am I missing something or did the assets decrease substantially?
To be technical, the worst case scenario for the NOL's is that WaMu keeps gifting them to FDIC and JPM. The pref's aren't almost paid off otherwise they'd be trading above 3% face value.
His estimate was based off a financial model as an ALTERNATIVE way to value an asset based on Free Cash Flows--the Gordon Growth Model
What you're missing is the fact that his model would have valued the ENTIRE WaMu estate pre-bk. Now JPM has some assets and WaMu has some assets so WaMu could not be worth the full value that you're claiming it is.
Quick example so you quit telling people that the U's should be worth $50/share:
I buy your car frame and engine for 1,000. I let you keep the seats, stereo, and rims. I turn around and make a profit off the frame and engine of 10,000 (sold for 11k). Because of how much I sold the car for, the car was worth IN HINDSIGHT about 15,000 at the time of purchase. Therefore your seats, stereo, and rims should be worth about $4,000 ($15,000-1,000-$10,000).
You are essentially telling people that your portion of the car is worth $15,000. AIMO
Hope this helps,
Steve
The NOL's wouldn't go to commons, it would go to equity to pay off the preferreds first. Using your logic, the worst case would be the pref's get paid and commons get nothing. AIMO
Steve
Well you can always average down but keep in mind U's have to get over about $5.50/share from here for them to be a better deal than the P's. That's why people have "hedged" with the pref's. I consider buying the U's a hedge just in case they do get $12-24/share but it's anyone's guess based on dd and risk tolerance. AIMO
Good luck
How are the U's less risky than the P's?
Maybe the good judge wanted to take a vacation...I don't think she needs to sign him in ASAP. Considering that she wants him to start working before Aug 10th I'd say she plans on doing it w/in the next week. Our examiner is 100% legit and just shows that the UST has full faith in JH even though he owned JPM stock. The judge may consider this bad for equity but the EC couldn't care less and should be ecstatic right now based on JH's record...6 months from now we're all gonna be rich!!! AIMO.