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What do you make of those HPR crosses and large buys this AM by First Energy...
10:28 1.840 1,000 -0.040 FirstEnergy TD Securities
10:23 1.840 1,000 -0.040 FirstEnergy TD Securities
10:11 1.850 110,000 -0.030 FirstEnergy FirstEnergy
10:09 1.850 15,000 -0.030 FirstEnergy CIBC
10:08 1.850 5,000 -0.030 E*TRADE Sec. CIBC
10:04 1.850 292,600 -0.030 FirstEnergy FirstEnergy
09:55 1.880 1,000 +0.000 BMO Nesbitt Griffiths
09:44 1.850 80,000 -0.030 FirstEnergy CIBC
okay my understanding per McCluskey today:
1) Millar was opposed to exploration, while the other directors were in favor.
2) Millar favored a bootstrap approach to Salamandra project (less than 20,000 ounces per year) while other directors favored 100,000+ ounce per year mine.
3) Here is the spin, FWIW... Chester lost his son (died Sept 03) he is 76 years old and "his heart is no longer in the project..."
4) Millar is now completely resigned and will not be involved with AGI in the future...
5) Losing Millar cannot be anything but a negative, because of his name/figurehead status. Nonetheless, if comments 1 and 2 are accurate, then his leaving should be best for AGI because IMO AGI should have a mine plan for over 100K production and exploration should continue on this property...
6) As posted, new director Harris is an old director of Alamos Minerals (pre-merger). He is also still a close friend of Millar, so there must not be much "hard feelings" with the Millar departure...
Most importantly, AGI still plans on being in production by 1Q05 with a 100,000 ounce + mine...
also, see http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1804416 nothing has changed here...
thanks guys, much appreciated...
have a call into McCluskey...
natgas: robry model graphs updated
http://amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html
Need some help on AGI this morning!!!
Could some of you gurus please post the real time quotes, opening bid/ask and volume on AGI for the first 20 minutes or so of trading!! Would appreciate updates every 5 minutes or so for first 20 minutes of trading...
Thanks!
Also, note that Leonard Harris, the new AGI director, was a director of Alamos prior to the National Gold merger:
Alamos Directors prior to merger:
Chester F. Millar (74), Vancouver, British Columbia; Professional Engineer; Chairman and Director of Alamos since 1996; President of Alamos since 1999; Chairman of Glamis Gold Ltd. from 1985 to present. Previously Chairman of Eldorado Gold Corporation between 1992 and 1994.
Leonard Harris (75), Lone Tree, Colorado; Self-employed consultant since 1995; Director of Alamos since 1998; Chairman, Mining Group, Chamber of the Americas; Past-resident of Newmont Peru Ltd.
Nerio Vasquez Cervantes (51), Richmond, British Columbia; Certified Managerial Accountant; Director of Alamos since 1996, Corporate Secretary since 2001; Executive Assistant, Western Blasting Ltd. since 1994.
John Alexander McCluskey (43), Toronto, Ontario; Director of Alamos since May 1996; President and Chief Executive Officer of Grayd Resource Corporation since 1996; Director, Aurcana Corporation since July, 2002; Vice-President, Finance from 1996 to 2002 of Inca Pacific Resources Inc.; Self-employed investor relations consultant since 1992.
Stephen Ray Stine (55), Centennial, Colorado U.S.A., Director of Alamos since February, 2002; President, Steve Stine and Associates since December, 2000; Previously, President & C.E.O. of Laguna Gold Company from 1998 to 2000; Vice-President, First Dynasty Mines, Ltd. 1994 to 1998; General Manager, FMC Gold Company 1991 to 1994.
Officers of Alamos hold office at the pleasure of the Board of Directors. Alamos is required to have an audit committee, the members of which are Chester F. Millar, John A. McCluskey and Leonard Harris. Alamos does not have an executive committee.
thanks tf!! lather them all up to get that price down tomorrow morning... I put in a stinky bid buy order for tomorrow below C$2.20 recent trend line support, doubt if it gets filled but if it does I will be happy...
Okay, I am noodling this one through my head...
First, for all intents and purposes, McCluskey has been running this company for the past 6+ months and not Millar. But Millar has been key as a figurehead and very helpful in raising cash and giving great exposure/legitimacy to AGI.
Disagree entirely with "lots of unanswered questions", AGI has proven and measured reserves of over 2M ounces, not many unanswered questions there...
This is the key quote: "The resignation of Chester Millar arose out a difference with the Board with respect to the future plans for development and further exploration of the Mulatos Deposit on the Company's 16,000 hectare Salamandra Property."
However, the next part seems to contratict the above quote, i.e. AGI still planning to build a mine producing 100,000+ ounces per year: "The purpose of the feasibility study is to determine the feasibility of developing a mine capable of sustaining a rate of production of at least 100,000 ounces of gold per year which is consistent with the business plan that was approved by the Board of Directors since the formation of the Alamos Gold Inc. in March, 2003."
My guess is the current drill program which has apparently identified higher grade, lower sulphide reserves has impacted the Salamandra mine plan and future exploration. Apparently to such a degree that there was a 3:2 split on the board, with Millar and Stine voting against and McCluskey, McDonald and Hughes voting for..., this resulted in Millar and Stine tendering their resignations...
We will know substantially more if and when AGI announces results of its recent drill program and if and when AGI reaffirms that it will be in production by first half of 2005.
The Millar resignation in no way can be viewed as positive, however. Nonetheless, that 2M ounce reserve (with great IRR at $350 POG) is not going to disappear just because Chester is gone either. Yet, Millar's knowledge of heap leach mining and ability to review a mine plan to ensure it is "failure proof" will be lost to AGI as well as his figurehead status that would ensure a successful next round financing...
Will be interesting to see how this plays out... If AGI gets whacked substantially tomorrow and next week, I will be a buyer... Could this simply be a power play with McCluskey, McDonald and Hughes the winners and Millar and Stines the losers...? But why and how come?, and are the new institutional players/shareholders behind this apparent coup...?
Lots of unanswered questions and the new management team/directors need to issue another press release ASAP, because Chester Millar's resignation is certainly not good news...
That PR certainly caught my attention!!
I post the robry model graphs here each week, will update tomorrow...
http://www.amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html
Robry buy or sell signals are usually multi-month plays... his latest buy signal post here:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7081371&tid=cwei&mid=21222&sid=7081371
yep, those PAA.wt have outperformed the last couple of days, and to think they were giving them away for virtually free upon the BAY.to merger... My basis is about US$1 in them...
KastelCo, FWIW receive no more error messages on your posts..., still have embedded sounds on, do not have quicktime installed so that was likely the problem...
currently, I favor natgas over gold... specifically, I believe natgas and oil will rise 25% before gold does.
to wit:
natgas from $4.80 to $6.00 before gold from $400 to $500
in addition, natgas stocks selling at under 15PE ratios while gold stocks selling at 40+ PE ratios.
that said, junior gold stocks make over 60% of my portfolio now because I hate paying capgain taxes and still believe my junior gold stocks will continue to do well. will continue to divest gold shares and buy natgas shares, especially when Jan 04 comes around and POG exceeds $410.
FWIW, follow robry posts for timing natgas stock purchases and his model recently switched to buy about 2 weeks ago... Will sell most of my natgas stocks when his model turns the other way...
Iraq
A Lull in Iraq: Eid Cools Down the Fighting Heat of Ramadan
Summary
There is an apparent lull in the number of attacks carried out by insurgents in Iraq and the number of raids and attacks carried out by U.S. forces. The decrease in the tempo of operations follows a period of heightened action that coincided with the just-ended holy month of Ramadan. As previously noted, the pace of operations by the militants was unsustainable in the long run, but the next few days will demonstrate whether this Eid pause is a temporary time of rest and recuperation or a more permanent state of affairs following the recent U.S. counterinsurgency offensive.
Analysis
There has been an apparent lull in operations by both coalition
and guerrilla forces in Iraq in recent days, coinciding with the
Eid festivities that mark the end of Ramadan. Militants are still
attacking coalition troops, including mortar-fire and small-arms
clashes, and U.S. forces continue to patrol and respond to these
actions, but the overall pace of operations has slowed from a
peak during Ramadan, when guerrillas launched an offensive and
U.S. forces launched several high-profile counterinsurgency
operations.
The timing of the lull appears to indicate a conscious move by
both sides to scale down operations during Eid -- though looks
can be deceiving. Whether this is simply a pause or a true sign
of progress on the part of the U.S.-led coalition forces will be
seen in the next few days as the Eid celebrations trail off.
As Stratfor previously noted, the high pace of guerrilla
operations over the past month was unsustainable in the long run.
The slackening pace -- though by no means cessation -- of attacks
could signal either a decision by guerrilla forces to rest and
recuperate following the month-long surge in operations or
indicate that the surge was a last desperate attempt by a failing
force.
U.S. forces also have slowed the pace of their recent
counterinsurgency campaigns, including Iron Hammer and Ivy
Cyclone II, due both to the need to pause between high-pace
short-term operations and in deference to political and social
considerations during Eid. This is not to say that U.S. forces
have ceased their present patrols or stopped chasing down
attackers and following up on intelligence leads, but the high-
profile use of armored columns, short-range ballistic missiles,
F-16 air strikes and AC-130 gunship attacks has lapsed, even if
only briefly.
The next few days will be telling. There already are reports that
al Qaeda has called for a second offensive that would stretch
between the Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, which falls in February
and coincides with the Hajj. Coincidentally, February is the time
U.S. forces are likely to be rotating through Iraq.
If the Ramadan offensive marked the last dying gasps of the
defeated Baathist regime, then the next week or two should see a
continued lower scale of guerrilla operations in Iraq. If,
however, this is simply a tactical pause -- be it for religious
or military considerations -- then next week will mark a
resumption in the earlier pace of attacks as the inter-Eid
offensive kicks off.
van Eeden has a good article...
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php
my hunch is this will be fully subscribed... :)
agree, kastel, have trouble with your plug in..., your posts always give me error message...
please advise
NATGAS -1 withdrawal
Storage Highlights:
Working gas in storage was 3,154 Bcf as of Friday, November 21, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 1 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 107 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 147 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,007 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 40 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 5 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 85 Bcf above the 5-year average of 818 Bcf after a net injection of 4 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 21 Bcf above the 5-year average after no net change. At 3,154 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
Weekly & Daily Charts
European stability pact compromise
Short-term solution to long-term problems
Published: Nov. 25 2003, 12:45 GMT
In the short to medium term, the compromise will stimulate demand and foster growth in the Euro area, but longer term it will postpone solutions to the serious structural problems that Euro area countries are facing.
The stability pact demands a budget deficit no larger than 3 percent of GDP. France and Germany have been running deficits over the 3-percent threshold for three consecutive years. In this warm and fuzzy compromise, the finance ministers permitted a continuation of the present situation on the condition of German budget cuts of 0.60 percent of GDP next year and 0.50 percent in 2005. For France the cuts should be 0.77 and 0.50 percent. Even these moderate budget cuts require a considerably stronger growth for Germany and France to meet the requirements of the stability pact.
The stability pact was designed during ‘perfect times’ – i.e. high growth, balanced budgets, and falling unemployment. Now, with growth lagging behind and budget deficits growing, the last thing the financial markets need is a contracting fiscal policy to curtail demand.
Accordingly, due to the present low growth economic environment in Euroland, the recent political compromise seems to be interpreted by the financial markets as a probate remedy to foster an economic upswing. This morning German bunds sold off and both the French CAC40 and the German DAX reacted with moderate gains on the news.
With the tax stimulus package in Germany and the fiscal stimulus in France, the overall economic activity will likely pick up on the short term. The problem is, that deficit spending and a lack of financial discipline do not constitute a solution to the problem of an inflexible European economy.
The low growth in the Euro zone is the result of “Euro-sclerosis” – i.e. outspoken government intervention, high workers compensation, too many public employees and high taxes that have caused high unit labour costs and a shift of productive resources from the private sector to an unproductive public sector. These problems are especially present in France and Germany, whose political leaderships have stubbornly refused to deal properly with them.
Debt issuing to finance these inefficient economic structures is a short-term solution to a long-term problem.
it's about time... Gold investment jumps in Q3 2003 - GFMS
Tuesday November 25, 6:47 am ET
LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Speculative purchases of gold soared in the third quarter of 2003, contributing to a five percent rise in total demand, while on the supply side, sales from central banks dropped sharply year-on-year and mine production was unchanged, a report by a leading mine research group said on Tuesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) said in its Q3 Gold Supply and Demand Balance report compiled for the World Gold Council that the other main change in the period was that producer hedging contributed to supply after seven consecutive quarters of de-hedging -- or buying back previous forward sales.
Implied net investment, which essentially represents speculative purchases of gold in western markets, jumped to 185 tonnes from just two tonnes during the same period in 2002.
"Although there have been signs of a broader-based interest in gold developing, investment in the third quarter remained dominated by short-term speculative players," GFMS said in its report.
Jewellery fabrication rose five percent year-on-year to 685 tonnes, thanks mainly to strong gains in India and Turkey.
"Indeed, without these two countries, global jewellery fabrication fell. The vast majority of the losses were accounted for by Italy, in part as a result of market share loss in the United States to rival exporters," it said.
On the supply side, sales by the official sector (central banks) rose 54 percent in Q3 to 129 tonnes, but GFMS said this was due mainly to very low levels recorded in Q3 2002.
"Perhaps a fairer comparison
MFL to sell 3M shares at C$11.00
highlights of npc report, from yahoo CWEI board
by: tryharddiehard 11/24/03 10:56 pm
Msg: 21765 of 21766
Though it says draft, I am simply pointing out locations where I found interesting facts
Page 3-63 70% of new homes use gas heat
Page 4-6 Use of past experiences to project future production trends very unreliable. We are in new territory.
Page 4-7 Gulf of Mexico resource base (likely technically recoverable) without regard to access or price is 329 TCF. This is bigger than Alaska at 303. Rockies are at 284. This map is interesting. Almost no reserves west of the rockies.
Page 4-8. Total recoverable reserves that are technically recoverable is estimated at 1969 TCF. This breaks out as follows:
In all of north america, only 272 tcf is proved reserves.
322 tcf growth to proved reserves is expected due to extensions to existing fields
976 tcf is undiscovered conventional potential (hope on that too)
Non-conventional undiscovered potential CBM, tight gas, shale gas etc. is surprisingly small at 389 tcf.
Here is what fascinated me. Canada and Mexico account for a piddling 518 tcf technical resource. This is about 1/4 of the total....US is lucky to have 1451 tcf.
From now until 2030, advances in technology expected to add 508 TCF. This is a wild A#$ guess, but that is what they are paid to do.
Page 4-9 This is scary, between 1999 to 2003, estimates by npc have decreased 20% for total reserves.
The 90% confidence interval on the 1969 tcf is +/- 30%.
Non-conventional gas (as defined above) is now 25% of production.
Page 4-11. Canada probably near peak in 1996. Plateau at best since.
Average reserves per well in Canada dropped from 1.4 bcf to 0.3 bcf. US still at 1 bcf now.
4-14,4-15 In all likelihood, 70% of total reserves (760 tcf) will be commericially accessible at $4.00/MMBtu. At $2.00/MMBtu only 10% will be accessible. At $8/mmgtu all is accessible.
Figure 4c-18. $5/MMBtu necessary to keep production roughly constant through 2025 (constant 2002 dollars). $4 and $3 not sufficient.
Figure 4-23. Facinating. The 1999 estimate suggested that about $3/MMbtu should grow production to 25 TCF/yr in lower 48. 3 years later, we are hoping to keep production flat at about 17 TCF/yr at a cost of $6/MMbtu over the same time period. MY COMMENT: This is a HUGE miss. PAY 100% MORE TO GET 25% less than we thought 3 years ago. AND THIS IS THE PART WE UNDERSTAND (lower 48 conventional)?
p 4-25 Total wells drilled is expected to be flat at about 15-17K per year. Non-conventional is included. CONVENTIONAL WELLS DRILLED PROJECTED TO DECLINE FROM ABOUT 5K per year now down to 4.5K per year in 2025.
4-28 If offshore moratoria are lifted and access in Rockies in improved in 2005 (OPTIMISTIC!!!), Henry Hub price likely to be reduced by $0.6/MMbtu. Would save consumers $300 billion over next 20 years.
4-36 Of the 1969 TCF in North America technically recoverable resource, 69% is undiscovered. Of this, 72% is conventional, only 28% unconventional.
MY NOTE: A lot riding on discovery of new conventional.
4-43 A-basin is an interesting case with about 70 TCF unconventional...low recoveries per well...even harder to develop than Powder River...but probably will happen with technology improvement.
goldheart indicator updated, a new paradigm...??
http://www.gold-eagle.com/charts/goldheart.html
Current Interpretation: We are still searching for a bottom in the triple bottom move of the MT indicator. The character of this MT move has no precedent since the birth of the bull. During the first cycle move from 1/02-6/02 we registered a unique overbought double bottom in the MT indicator. Now we are going for a least three. All this occurs while the LT indicator tries to find its bottom, also in overbought territory.
If you look at the Gold plot below you can see that several reversals have occurred in the MT and LT indicators during this bottoming process. Reversals defined as inflection points in the wave bottoming profile. However, when you step back from the daily moves in these waves you see that both the MT and LT waves are clearly trending deeper into overbought territory. This would signal that final turns in these indicators still lie ahead, and our Gold and Silver bull continues for the present.
We can never know when a final turn is final, since it always lies behind that dark curtain of the future. We can however know when we are overbought relative to "past" prices, but when expected corrections refuse to correct we must begin asking the question of whether we are sensing some transition in share price action. Any new paradigm would take longer to register on GoldHeart waves.
Certainly, Gold investor psychology continues to develop deeper roots. At the same time new investors are attracted to the obvious Gold and Silver share price growth. We might expect these new factors to change the character of GoldHeart waves as a new paradigm develops. Expected minor corrections may now be seized as buying opportunities. We may find that as we progress along the Gold Bull Hwy that overbought turns now become complex triple, quadruple, etc. bottoms refusing to quite. They may become only temporary interruptions that break the stride of Gold and result in sideways consolidation. We may find it takes a final exhaustion of the LT wave to indicate that the new tempo of Gold is ready for a breather. Time will tell.
We do however know that there is no crystal ball to predict the future. GoldHeart waves only provide a sense of reference to "past" price action with good correlation to market turns. New paradigms governed by new rules take time to register due to learning associated with new price patterns. We do however sense the possibility of that new forces may be at work and that there may be some logical basis for a new paradigm. Time will tell.
Regardless of overbought conditions or a new Gold paradigm our "obvious" trends are clear. Let's go with the obvious here. Gold and Silver are in bull markets. This is clearly indicated on the plot trend lines below. Continue to build and hold core positions while using GoldHeart signals as a good tool for timing new purchases and switches. Talk soon, GoldHeart (November 24, 2003)
Andrew Weissman posts on CWEI board as pulsewriter...
Here is one of his posts today, there are others: http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7081371&tid=cwei&sid=708...
no way, I keep you on ignore! :o)
Why dost thou converse with that trunk of humours, that bolting-hutch of beastliness, that swollen parcel of dropsies, that huge bombard of sack, that stuffed cloak-bag of guts, that roasted Manningtree ox with pudding in his belly, that reverend vice, that grey Iniquity, that father ruffian, that vanity in years?
-Henry IV, part I
CRB at the ol' 50 day MA
couple of other items...
This stock is very thinly traded, especially US listing DYOLF. You should be able to pick up shares under US$3.80.
Second, as posted, 3Q03 results should be out this week. Whether this stock rises or falls will likely depend on the 3Q financial results. Frankly, I do not know what earnings and cash flow to expect this quarter, you have to place your bets and take your chances...
DYOLF / DOL.to appears undervalued.
from website:
"Dynamic Oil & Gas, Inc. is a rapidly growing, TSX and NASDAQ small cap, natural gas based energy company with a strong position in Western Canada. With natural gas and natural gas liquids making up well over eighty percent of it's proven reserve base, Dynamic has a strong commitment to this secure, clean, and abundant energy source."
Share structure:
21,311,112.... 6/30/2003 shares
1,064,667.... options
1,050,666.... royalty purchase
23,426,446.... total dilutive shares
Thus, at 6/30/03, DYOLF had a market cap in excess of C$100M.
President & Chairman owns 5.43% of shares, all officers/directors own about 10% of company.
President and other insiders converted thier 1% royalty into 1.05M shares, C$6.5M or C$5.25 per share. Based on annualizing the 2Q03 royalty paid of $471K = C$1.884M/yr., this works out to 3.46 times payback which appears reasonable.
EPS was $.23 for the first half 2003. Thus, selling at 11 PE ratio fully diluted at current market price of C$5.00
Canaccord Projects Cash Flow Per Share as:
2003... C$1.48..... price to cash flow = 3.38 times
2004... C$1.32
DYOLF had average production rate of 3,207 boe/d and exited 2Q03 at 4,150 boe/d. DYOLF goal is a exit rate as of 12/31/03 at 5,200 boe/d. That represents a 25% growth rate form the 2Q03 or annual growth rate of 50%.
It appears only some of the reserves from Cypress/Chowade were included in the 12/31/02 reserve estimate as certain wells had not been fully tested. Thus, there should be upside remaining from last year to increase proven reserves plus the apparently positive drilling results achieved thus far this year.
The company is really "under-owned" by institutions, but hopefully this will change... see ownership link, institutions apparently own less than 5% of shares outstanding.
DYOLF likely will report 3Q03 results this week, so we can determine whether it is making progress or not...
Canaccord gold/natgas/oil valuations...
http://www.canaccord.com/files/Reports2/Reports_2003_continued/RU_11072003.pdf
Metallic shows how shareholders can be treated
By: Tim Wood
Posted: 2003/11/24 Mon 06:41 ZE2 / © Mineweb 1997-2003
SAN FRANCISCO -- It’s hard to find mining companies able to resist the temptation of doing everything on the shareholder dime. Toronto listed Metallic Ventures [MVG] (not to be confused with compatriot Metallica Resources [MR] which is another stock we especially like) breaks that mould very emphatically.
Principals Jeffrey Ward and Richard McNeely sank $9 million of their own wealth into Metallic, assembling a Nevada property portfolio during the gold market’s nuclear winter. Drilled since 2000, the projects are now on the verge of delivering returns and positioning Metallic as an emerging mid-tier player with the added benefit of US dollar parity in operating costs and gold price leverage.
Publicly traded since late 2002, the company has exchanged scrip worth $33 million to develop three gold projects that it bought for a paltry $457,000, the most advanced of which is Esmeralda.
McNeely estimates that the company has spent about $12 million so far refurbishing the mill at Esmeralda which is capable of processing 350 tonnes of ore per day, as well as bringing the other infrastructure up to operating standard. Further capital investment of $2 million should bring the mine back into production in the first quarter of 2004 with an annual output of 60,000 to 80,000 ounces of gold a year, at total cash costs in a broad estimated range of $125-180 per ounce.
Two declines are being completed for mining from underground as well as to facilitate deeper exploration that should substantially bulk up Metallic’s mineral resource base. Esmeralda’s historical underground gold grades are spectacular and anything approaching what has been reported will fully justify the tremendous wealth creation that has already taken place.
The company’s Goldfield and Converse properties, also in Nevada, still require feasibility work to be completed, but are very likely production prospects at current gold prices. Goldfield has considerable district potential with Metallic controlling more than 18,000 acres.
Metallic is presently preparing a new resource calculation based on its recent drilling activities and that is expected to show a sharp improvement from the current 3.2 million ounces of measured and indicated gold resources that prices Metallic at a heady $80 per resource ounce – that’s a valuation companies with substantial reserves could only dream of.
Great projects are not enough without management who can execute the engineering and generate wealth. Ward and McNeely offer that in spades after many years of success as a team which is why they could not only afford to personally fund their latest venture, but are also likely to produce another generous surplus for their shareholders.
Metallic is a model that should be emulated, not just traded.
gold vs. foreign currencies - Turk
http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php
I focused therein on gold in terms of the Swiss, euro and yen. These have been the strongest currencies, so gold has not climbed as much against them as it has against the US dollar or British pound. But there is an important observation to be made here. When the strongest currency can no longer keep up with gold (or in other words, when gold finally breaks out of its base against that currency), then gold's bull market will start in earnest. And we are very near to that point.
My conclusion in the October 11th alert was: "I think it is now reasonable to conclude that gold will break out of these saucer patterns to the upside either this month or next." There is only one week left for this projection to be proven accurate. Will gold climb against all the world's major currencies this week and breakout against the Swiss franc, euro and yen?
Of course no one knows. But even if my timing is off by a week or two, it doesn't matter. What matters is that the trend for gold remains up, not only in terms of the US dollar, but also for all the major currencies of the world. This observation is key because when gold does finally breakout of its base in Swiss francs, euros, and yen, then - as I said in my October 11th alert - "It will be an event that every gold bull is waiting for because it will reflect a flight out of fiat national currency into the safety and security of gold."
Puncturing Natural Gas Myths -- Part I http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_print.cfm?a_id=556
contrary energy...
http://www.mcdep.com/ContraryEnergy42.pdf
how about Dow:Gold vs. Dow:Oil vs. Dow:NatGas
and throw in CRB for good measure...
thanks Frank, much appreciated...
let me know when that SA Rand is going to turn around..., believe it could go down as low as 6.1 : 1, but no lower...
that SA Rand carry trade is one potent beast (i.e. short the dollar and use proceeds to buy Rand which yields higher interest rate), that those hedge funds/currency traders have made huge profits on this year...
FWIW, my colleague agrees with you on the NASDAQ, believes this week it goes up and then SMH and techs/semis follow through with the up pattern the next few days/week thereafter...
really want to short the QQQ on fundamental basis, but as the maxim goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent...
thanks for your comments Marcos...
Latest SEC Filing
http://www.secinfo.com/dVut2.215aw.htm