Mostly: Classical

[amarksp]

highlights of npc report, from yahoo CWEI board
by: tryharddiehard 11/24/03 10:56 pm
Msg: 21765 of 21766

Though it says draft, I am simply pointing out locations where I found interesting facts

Page 3-63 70% of new homes use gas heat

Page 4-6 Use of past experiences to project future production trends very unreliable. We are in new territory.

Page 4-7 Gulf of Mexico resource base (likely technically recoverable) without regard to access or price is 329 TCF. This is bigger than Alaska at 303. Rockies are at 284. This map is interesting. Almost no reserves west of the rockies.

Page 4-8. Total recoverable reserves that are technically recoverable is estimated at 1969 TCF. This breaks out as follows:

In all of north america, only 272 tcf is proved reserves.
322 tcf growth to proved reserves is expected due to extensions to existing fields
976 tcf is undiscovered conventional potential (hope on that too)
Non-conventional undiscovered potential CBM, tight gas, shale gas etc. is surprisingly small at 389 tcf.

Here is what fascinated me. Canada and Mexico account for a piddling 518 tcf technical resource. This is about 1/4 of the total....US is lucky to have 1451 tcf.

From now until 2030, advances in technology expected to add 508 TCF. This is a wild A#$ guess, but that is what they are paid to do.

Page 4-9 This is scary, between 1999 to 2003, estimates by npc have decreased 20% for total reserves.

The 90% confidence interval on the 1969 tcf is +/- 30%.

Non-conventional gas (as defined above) is now 25% of production.

Page 4-11. Canada probably near peak in 1996. Plateau at best since.

Average reserves per well in Canada dropped from 1.4 bcf to 0.3 bcf. US still at 1 bcf now.

4-14,4-15 In all likelihood, 70% of total reserves (760 tcf) will be commericially accessible at $4.00/MMBtu. At $2.00/MMBtu only 10% will be accessible. At $8/mmgtu all is accessible.

Figure 4c-18. $5/MMBtu necessary to keep production roughly constant through 2025 (constant 2002 dollars). $4 and $3 not sufficient.

Figure 4-23. Facinating. The 1999 estimate suggested that about $3/MMbtu should grow production to 25 TCF/yr in lower 48. 3 years later, we are hoping to keep production flat at about 17 TCF/yr at a cost of $6/MMbtu over the same time period. MY COMMENT: This is a HUGE miss. PAY 100% MORE TO GET 25% less than we thought 3 years ago. AND THIS IS THE PART WE UNDERSTAND (lower 48 conventional)?

p 4-25 Total wells drilled is expected to be flat at about 15-17K per year. Non-conventional is included. CONVENTIONAL WELLS DRILLED PROJECTED TO DECLINE FROM ABOUT 5K per year now down to 4.5K per year in 2025.

4-28 If offshore moratoria are lifted and access in Rockies in improved in 2005 (OPTIMISTIC!!!), Henry Hub price likely to be reduced by $0.6/MMbtu. Would save consumers $300 billion over next 20 years.

4-36 Of the 1969 TCF in North America technically recoverable resource, 69% is undiscovered. Of this, 72% is conventional, only 28% unconventional.

MY NOTE: A lot riding on discovery of new conventional.

4-43 A-basin is an interesting case with about 70 TCF unconventional...low recoveries per well...even harder to develop than Powder River...but probably will happen with technology improvement.