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SSKILZ THANKS for the midweek update! The periodic updates are nice.....it gives everyone a chance to feel like winner at some point in this contest!
Now I'm going to print that message out on my best paper stock, make it into a plaque, and hang it with my other not-so distinctive awards....like my YMCA trophy collection :)
LENF should have helped me in the rankings...if it holds through the week?
Could I request the rankings be run today....a winner every day would give everyone a little taste of success....like getting to wear the Yellow jersey in the Tour de Frane...but I wouldn't want to have to wear the same shirt some non-doderant wearing European has sweated in for a day.
read the rules, CPTCQ doesn't qualify. eom
LENF...sure wish I had bought it when I submitted my entry for the "Pick 6 lotto". Do any of you TA people think there's anything left in it?
VPHM sheep picked themselves a good shepard. It's alright to be a sheep, as long as you pick a good shepard they'll lead you to greener pastures. The first person I saw mention VPHM was MSGI....was it originally his?
Just the name Cornell Capital scares me......I've seen them drown too many other stocks I held previously. Maybe it's an over generalization on my part, the other companies were much different from DNDT, but I consider Cornell a shark in the water.
DNDT is a unique value and/or turn around play....but I'm just too leary to play in the ocean....I'll go play in the kiddy pool.
yield and rufff,
These little companies should exercise a little more discretion when they're announcing contract values that are 10 times larger than the companies present market capitalization.
When EKCS announced their selection as a contractor in the $500M IBDSS program, they announce they estimated the value of the contract could be up to $120M for them....and they even rounded down $5M, lol! The point is, they never used the $500M number in their press release becaue it would have been misleading.
In a world where GORX has class action suits piling up against them because they were a little vague when they announced an FDA approval and forgot to include details that it was a "510K device approval"....companies can never be too forthright. Personally, although I'm not invested in GORX anymore, I think investors should have been able to figure that one out for themselves....and don't think GORX was deliberately misleading.
VSR: ruff, that PR seams a bit misleading. It looks like a multiple award "contract vehicle", not an actual task order type of contract. VSR definately should have been a bit more explicit in their PR.
Anyway, my read is that VSR received one of 4 small business awards for a contract vehicle worth up to $600M for all participating contractors. This contract looks like a joint award for 4 small businesses....and who knows how many prime contractors?
My understanding of the way these things work is for example, an Environmental Manager at an Air National Guard base will have some work that needs done.....he will write a request for proposal (RFP) for a specific task order and all the contractors will have the opportunity to bid on it. A certain portion may be reserved for the small business set aside.....so the big prime contractors (URS, TTEK, ERM [for example]) will need to subcontract some portion of their work to a small business. So VSR needs to massage the big contractors to build alliances with them.
There's some very basic definitions of federal contract terms, like ID/IQ, at the following link:
http://www.saic.com/contractcenter/faqs.html
I have bolded some key points in the PR below:
Versar Awarded 10 Year Contract to Support the Air National Guard
Friday July 8, 1:33 pm ET
SPRINGFIELD, Va., July 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- VERSAR, Inc. (Amex: VSR - News) announced today that it has been awarded a 10 year contract with the National Guard Bureau to provide environmental engineering, remediation and professional services for the Air National Guard. This is one of four small business awards. The contract is an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract with an estimated capacity of $598 million over a ten year period.
Dr. Ted Prociv, President and CEO of Versar stated, "This award represents a tremendous opportunity to provide services to the Air National Guard nationwide. Supporting our armed services in executing their mission to protect the homeland is a great honor and responsibility that Versar will meet with all its resources."
Versar, Inc., headquartered in Springfield, VA, is a publicly held professional services firm supporting government and industry in national defense/homeland defense programs, environmental health and safety and infrastructure revitalization. Versar operates a number of web sites, including the corporate Web sites, http://www.versar.com , http://www.homelanddefense.com , and http://www.geomet.com ; and a B2B portal for homeland defense products and services, http://www.nbcprotect.com and http://www.dtaps.com .
This press release contains forward-looking information. The forward- looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be significantly impacted by certain risks and uncertainties described herein and in Versar's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the year ended June 30, 2004.
Contact: James Dobbs (703) 642-6712
Senior Vice President
Email: jdobbs@versar.com
Investor Relations Contact: Andrew J. Kaplan (732) 747-0702
Barry Kaplan Associates
623 River Road
Fair Haven, NJ 07704
Email: smallkap@aol.com
NTRZ: Catfish, you were about a year early on this one, but this data is compelling. I hope it can bo back to sleep over the next few months before the next trial is completed...and/or NTRZ begins agressive marketing.
patentlawmeister,
I have a bit of experience reviewing specs of fluid bed driers, micro fluidizers, and like equipment. I'm not an expert, but I have a basic understanding.
I typically don't like capital equipment companies, but think MFIC could do well.
I do have to say though, I strongly disagree with your comparisons of MFIC to BIPH. Where MFIC makes the equipment to manufacture billions of dollars worth of products, BIPH has the technology that could be incorporated into billions of dollars worth of products. So for example, lets say MFIC sells 10 microfluidizers for a pharmaceutical production line that could produce $1B in annual revenue...MFIC sells the equipment then they're done. But BIPH is developing technology that could earn them a 3-6% royalty on the total sales of the products that incorporate BIPH's technology....and those royalties should be very high margin revenue once things get rolling for BIPH. Considering BIPH's first partner is BSX....and considering all the patenting BIPH has been doing for MRI-visible stents.....I think there's a good reason why BIPH has been driven to such a high speculative value.
Of course, I'm biased when I say this. as BIPH is currently my largest position :)
....and I should also say I held this same "equipment producer" prejudice against TVIN when I first hear of them back in 2001 when they were trading at $0.30 :)
Re: BIPH thoughts
I can't disagree with your TA, but want to throw in a few important fundamental points too.
1.) When you say look out below, there could be a few solid branches that might catch BIPH on the way down.
a.) BSX is commiting $5M to BIPH near $3 and might want some more on the open market for a reasonable discount?
b.) The SBI financing ranges from $2-$4 and I think they might also want to offer some support above $2 too.
2.) I still think the boosh could happen at any time for BIPH too. If you look at the first time BIPH and BSX announced an agreement in 11/03 you'll see there was a little jump immediately, then two month transpired before the big boosh in January '04. I don't know why it took so long, but 17M shares out of the blue two months later is a good reason to "expect the unexpected" with BIPH.
3.) The most important aspects of the BIPH/BSX deal are yet to be disclosed....what products and markets, what milestones and payment amounts, and what royalty rates. This is what the smart money is waiting to see IMO. If it's half as possitive as MW tells, it should be very good for BIPH in the long term. I don't think anyone knows or could anticipate when any of that will be disclosed.
LENF & MFIC :) Sure wish I had actually bought these....damn!
EP, you're the victim of your own success. You're playing a difficult game, trying to provide ideal timing for quick and significant returns. In all my years or watching investment message boards, you're definitely the most successful at the short-term game that I've seen. You're also the most forthright and honest person I've seen play this game as well. You'll remember how skeptical I was of the "boosh" concept last fall when you began this board, but after a few months of watching, I've seen some convincing evidence and developed a good deal of respect for your "opinions".
I think your fundamental problem is, your success has increased peoples reliance on your "opinions".....and has brought you a bunch of blind followers that are guilty of not thinking for themselves....so now they're putting heat on you. Also, the nature of the "booosh" tends to draw people who consider long-term investing longer than a week, lol!
But as long as you continue to focus on finding your ideal technical pattern in quality companies, you should never be devastatingly wrong about any investment....and continue to have a high success rate....even if the timing doesn't work out quite as planned all the time.
As for being "all in", well that's just crazy....and anyone with half a brain should realize that....and understand why you trimmed back your position.
I was more than 70% in BIPH in both of my accounts since 2/05....and it nearly drove me crazy...as some of my posts on RB since then would evidence. So I also trimmed back my position in BIPH on the BSX news....recovered my initial investment and some profits....and will hold the rest for the long term. That had been my plan since originally buying BIPH in 11/03. I didn't sell because I had a major change in sentiment, but because the stress of being so heavily invested in one issue was aging me faster than the rate of “dog years”. As for those people who claim they'll "never sell a share of BIPH until 2010", they're full of crap.....I'm quite sure they'll be proven liars well before 2010.
I also realized how many other good opportunities I watched pass me by over those 19 months....and while I believe BIPH will be a long term success....I'll be glad to share in the success with "free" shares…..and continue to look for good opportunities like BIPH was @ $0.40.
This old post of mine emphasizes a few points that I think have pertinence to your present situation. I think your success may have caused a few "lazy daydreamers" to begin to blindly follow your opinions.....and not have knowledge or convictions of their own. ...and I also believe you're “boosh” methods take some of the "luck" that I referred to out of my equation for successful microcap investing....and that's what I appreciate about your board here:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=BOCX&read=608
When viewed with this chart, it also emphasizes my point about missed opportunities while being too heavily invested in any one issue:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BOCX,uu[l,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lh1....
But then again, that post also reveals my simple strategy of just investing in biotech stocks who’s tickers begin with “B” lol! Damn my secret is out! :)
greeneyedhawk, you got mail yesterday. Today I realize just how untimely those thoughts of mine were, lol. Although, I still believe what I said.....HIET did take a nice boosh this morning. Send a reply when you get a chance.
EP thanks. SSKILLZ, I'm with you on the balance of "skills"....for lack of a better word? In my case, it might be more accurate to call it "lucky coincidence seeking" :)
I don't know much about TA at all, but do enjoy digging into the fundamentals of a company's business plan and markets. Actually, I used to think most TA was a bunch of hocus pocus BS, but EP has convinced me otherwise. That's why I come here to seek the TA opinion on some of my holdings....seeking advice on entry-points and exit points.....and appreciate EP's kindness to take a look and share his opinion.
But more in-line with my fundamental investor approach, I think EZEN is a quality company that will work out well for a long-term hold....so I'm taking more of a long term strategy. I'm still holding all my shares from $1.....and watching paper gains and losses swing up and down....but believe by next year those holdings will give me some nice long-term gains.
I was seeking EP's opinion on the chart because I want to buy more before August, but want the best price possible.....so I really hope to see that $1.50-$1.80 you and EP speak of....but am still holding what I have just in-case we get a SIPRINET announcement from the company in the mean time :)
EP, is your opinion of the EZEN chart still the same? I am an EZEN bull....and I'm waiting for the best buying opportunity possible.
I wonder if there could be another shake-out right before earnings in August....as there was last August...or this February? I'm just trying to be patient for the best buying opportunity possible.
P.S.: Any thoughts on BLLI's chart....or still too low of volume to analyze? I bought more yesterday. I just spoke to the company today....and a funny contrast to BIPH's approach....the CFO said they BLLI doesn't intend to seek licensing agreements until AFTER they receive the FDA 510K approval this fall.
Len, my "wild cards" might actually be jokers? :)
But like you said, I realized to win this contest I needed to have at least one or two unique stocks that outperform the most common stocks in this contest. So my strategy to try to win this game is quite different than my strategy to try to manage a successful portfolio.
The prodigy investors who have a following on these boards are the victims of their own popularity in this contest, but surely benefit from the pack mentality in actual investing.
I probably went a little overboard with trying to put a "unique" list together....and didn't focus enough on the stocks potential. But had I focused primarily on the stocks potential, my list would have ended up with most of the common picks here.
So I think I'm the only one with LENF.ob, EPG, and IAGX.ob in this contest. This level of uniqueness is bound to land me outside the pack...either to the upside...or the downside?
But I'll be looking at that commonality list to see what's worth owning in my own portfolio.
I had to add some new picks to this contest.....so my LENF fell off a cliff right out of the gate :)
I don't own any now, but thought it would be an interesting wild card to throw into my picks.
CBAI WAS a good one too.....but lack of cash kept me from participating.
BIPH: The announcement didn't give many details....and BSX didn't do a joint PR....but BIPH's CEO has made it clear BIPH didn't want to be BSX's bi***….so that’s probably part of the reason why there was no joint-PR.
All the details of milestone payments, royalty rates, and which of BIPH's "multiple patents" will be applied to which of BSX's "exclusive and non-exclusive product categories" remain concealed.....but THE AGREEMENT HAS BEEN EXECUTED...FINALLY!!!
The fact that they’re waiting for “confirmation of paperwork related to recent acquisitions” leads me to believe this deal does involve stents….since that was pretty much AMRIS’s bread and butter.
Maybe BSX will be ready for a joint-PR when they’re ready to fund the agreements?:
“Funding under both agreements is expected to occur following confirmation of paperwork related to our recent acquisitions.”
But investors will probably never know for sure what products are involved until BSX starts introducing "game changing" products that include BIPH's technologies.
Congratulations all BIPH longs!
I got a headache just begining to think about how to standardize everyone's positions and tracking all of this. Thanks for putting the work into this Mr. SSkilz...it should be fun.
power-pole, I think you are a bit high :) From the PR: "30 calendar-day period".
How's the tracking work? Will someone be building all these portfolio's on Yahoo tonight or something?
lonestar, some fun with numbers for you. I'm not sure if it actually "closed" today or not, but here's what it would look like for the past month:
-5 2.71 2.72 2.56 2.65 292,300 2.65
28-Jun-05 2.54 2.71 2.52 2.69 413,600 2.69
27-Jun-05 2.6 2.64 2.55 2.55 202,700 2.55
24-Jun-05 2.69 2.7 2.51 2.59 231,900 2.59
23-Jun-05 2.53 2.71 2.53 2.66 249,000 2.66
22-Jun-05 2.54 2.55 2.48 2.55 490,600 2.55
21-Jun-05 2.65 2.66 2.54 2.55 246,000 2.55
20-Jun-05 2.69 2.71 2.61 2.66 217,700 2.66
17-Jun-05 2.56 2.71 2.55 2.68 437,900 2.68
16-Jun-05 2.62 2.71 2.5 2.55 391,500 2.55
15-Jun-05 2.7 2.7 2.54 2.63 606,500 2.63
14-Jun-05 2.79 2.83 2.66 2.72 643,400 2.72
13-Jun-05 2.83 2.84 2.75 2.79 226,600 2.79
10-Jun-05 2.84 2.84 2.75 2.84 260,700 2.84
9-Jun-05 2.66 2.78 2.66 2.78 312,100 2.78
8-Jun-05 2.75 2.77 2.67 2.7 320,700 2.7
7-Jun-05 2.8 2.84 2.73 2.76 409,700 2.76
6-Jun-05 2.85 2.85 2.68 2.85 466,500 2.85
3-Jun-05 2.89 2.89 2.72 2.76 670,700 2.76
2-Jun-05 2.55 2.79 2.54 2.79 695,600 2.79
1-Jun-05 2.79 2.79 2.59 2.6 503,000 2.6
31-May-05 2.68 2.85 2.68 2.76 1,361,800 2.76
Sum = 59.11
Sum divided by 22days = $2.686
$2.686 x 1.10 = $2.955
Len, Bob, and SSkilz...Thanks for organizing the lotto.
CBAI...there's one I was afraid to chase yesterday morning from $0.26...ooops....no sharing the success of the boosh there. But I just never liked those husband and wife companies.....
EP, strategies can vary, but the success of the boosh can be shared :)
The EZEN bulls are out there....but they're just grazing right now.
Here's a different strategy being touted by a guy with 562 people marks....and EZEN shares from $0.25 in his long term gains column:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21464204
...and a slightly different strategy from another pretty well respected guy:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6778582
I'll be around to enjoy the next boosh.
EP, thanks for the look at EZEN. I think there's a key difference in the fundamentals of APYM and EZEN that won't allow EZEN to follow the same course....and I would welcome any precipitous drop as a buying opportunity.
Although, if it could drop that way today, it would position me nicely for the "pick six lotto" contest :)
Those with AMLJ.ob and ETEC.ob lost some of their potential today....I'm going to buy them into the close just to sabotage the contest, lol!
My six picks are:
EZEN.ob, CMNN.ob, MFIC.ob, LENF.ob, IAGX.ob, EPG
These aren't all my favorite picks, but I just wanted to add some new entrants into the contest.....so I'm going with a few wild cards.
hawk,
MW reiterated that June 30th date in an interview last week....I forget which one....maybe it was the PR broadcast interview on June 7th? In any case, I believe the man is telling the truth...and giving dilligent investors all the heads-up they could ask for. I just hope he has as much control over the situation as he seams to exude.
Re: BIPH comments....
If BSX mentions MRI-visible stents to their investors when they announce a deal with BIPH, FORGET LOGIC! I think that detail MAY POSSIBLY be disclosed in June?
Once BIPH closes the LOI with the Germans for copper alloys in stents, BSX may be confident enough they've got that competitive advantage "locked-up" and begin pounding their chest about how they plan on making their next generation stents the market leaders?
I think it's a possibility it will happen then, but it's only a WAG? BIPH announcing the finalization of that agreement with those Germans would be a very good sign IMO.
BIPH: I have a feeling that 10K will propel another booosh Tuesday.....refinancing with SBI for $30M for 10M shares gives it average pricing of $3/share, with a range from $2-$4.
Awesome financing again....and lots more positive commentary and insight into what's going on there.....I haven't found anything ugly yet.
I was sort of afraid that they might have sold more shares to SBI under their former agreement @ $0.80, but NO, they got much better terms! ....and the CEO loaned the company $500k from Biomed, his private holding company that owns his stake in BIPH.
EP, BIPH:
I'm not saying it going to happen, but it would be a very possitive sign if BIPH closed that LOI with those German guys sometime before next Tuesday. aMRIS took a while, but that was an aquisition. This latest deal just looks like a license....might not take as long.
If we get a Friday after he close PR about it, or it happens before next Tuesday, I would go in deeper...and I'm already something like 60% BIPH in both accounts.
Good luck!
OT: MSGI, would there be any potential for "insider information" allegations if one of VPHM's major investors is my former employer...and my wifes current employer? Neither of us have heard of the company before in our work, but I wondered if that connection might make that one I shouldn't touch?
MSGI that VPHM looks pretty interesting, I added it to my watchlist last week when you mentioned it on the VM board. I will watch and hope for it to go back to sleep before next earnings. They're right down the road from me too....might go do some DD there some time....DD = Dumpster Diving :)
EP, what are those lyrics from Jack Straw?
Something about:
We used to play for silver, now we play for life.
One's for sport and ones for blood at the pull of a knife.
Thanks Bob. I agree that tax credits shouldn't count as true EPS, but just looking at a simple Yahoo! balance sheet would lead me to believe that "technically" they should be included in "net income from operations" figure. Yet, I do believe it would be misleading to just throw them in there and not point-it-out.
As I said, I'm not an accountant...and I appreciate you sharing your knowledge! :)
For example:
Income from Continuing Operations
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 45 5 (103) 3
Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 637 427 284 409
Interest Expense - - - -
Income Before Tax 637 427 284 409
Income Tax Expense (608) - (819) - Minority Interest - - - -
Net Income From Continuing Ops 1,245 427 1,103 409
Anyone have any insight on that EZEN question? Bobwins help out a silent lurker, I respect the boards rules and don't post non-value stuff here. Just because you don't hear from me doesn't mean I'm not watching :)
So the question is: According to GAAP, do tax loss carry forwards count as "operating income"? If so, is EZEN in error of their wording of their PR?