full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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WFC stress test results: Wells Fargo will need to add capital.
AP reports regulators have told Wells Fargo to shore up its finances after government "stress tests" showed the bank would have trouble surviving a deeper recession. Wells Fargo is one of several banks that regulators will force to hold larger buffers to protect them against possible future losses, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the process... Wells Fargo holds billions of dollars in mortgage, construction and credit card loans. The stress test treated those loans as especially vulnerable since borrowers would face trouble repaying their debts in a much worse economy.
Prolly due to PZG moving up ???
WEMU: Pretty excited about potential here. Got aboard late at $5.00 and $5.45, but anticipating good things to come. Could have more upside percentagewise than even AGT (my biggest position) from here IFF solar continues to gain strength while gold gets pushed lower. Maybe so, maybe no; but I'm pulling for both these small caps with great revenue growth ahead of them.
Downside risk: Overall market due for correction, which may start this week if stress test results (and details about estimated residential and commercial RE losses) push the big banks down hard.
Good luck WEMU and AGT investors.
'peeker
Bought a FEED position today after deciding that efforts to remove the word "Swine" from "swine flu" should keep the bacon sizzling and the hog feed sales on an uptrend.
'peeker
ps> Here's to all those Chinese porkers out there wanting to look more like the Great Buddha!
WEMU: I have minor position here, but do you know timeframe for their NASDAQ application, that is, when is the earliest they might announce trading on NASDAQ? I agree it should get alot more coverage in the Solar space when that happens.
'peeker
PS> Good luck on (and thanks for) AGT.
Monster move; up over 10% with almost $50,000 worth of stock changing hands.
The situation reminds me of Helen Keller wearing off her fingerprints while yelling for help at the bottom of a well.
'peeker
PZG ... anyone know why it's up so nicely today?
I could find no news or hints from scanning a couple of message boards.
Market trending down after Chrysler announces they are filing for bankruptcy (creditors wouldn't agree to giving up so much; supposedly they figure they'll do better with a judge than with the gov't "facilitators" deciding things).
WHO to make announcement on flu pandemic alert level around 20:00 GMT; Likely to increase flu alert level to 5 because "things moving fast," according to sources - Reuters
thanks for the details
Mortgageman, could you perhaps put a few more letters on the page to say WHAT rumors you are talking about? Nobody likes to be pumped on rumors, especially when someone won't even say what the rumor might be.
NGA just fell out of bed. Substantial selling around 11am took it down 10%. Buying op? Anyone have news on NGA?
CNEH updates production status: GOOD !!!
China North East Petroleum Announces Preliminary 2009 First Quarter Production Results
Wednesday 04/29/2009 8:30 AM ET - Pr Newswire
Symbol Last %Chg
CNEH 1.93 7.22%
As of 10:14 AM ET 4/29/09
China North East Petroleum Holdings, Limited (OTC Bulletin Board: CNEH; 'CNEH'), a leading oil producing company in Northern China, today announced preliminary oil production results for the first quarter of 2009.
The Company's crude oil production in the first quarter of 2009 totaled 221,688 barrels, a 93% increase compared to 114,862 barrels in the first quarter of 2008. The total number of wells in production during the quarter was 247. The Company is planning to commence drilling additional wells in May 2009.
Mr. Hongjun Wang, President of China North East Petroleum commented, "The management team is pleased with the company's execution in the first quarter 2009, which resulted in record quarterly oil production for the Company. By increasing production efficiency and implementing water-flooding techniques, the production from our existing installed wells was very stable. We continue to concentrate on minimizing our operating expenses to maximize our profitability during this challenging economic time."
He further commented, "Although we have experienced fluctuating oil prices and the slowdown of the global economy, our management team has treated the current challenging market environment as an opportunity. In addition to concentrating on continued production growth from our four leased oil fields, we remain highly focused on the evaluation of acquisition or expansion opportunities in the petroleum exploration and production sector in order to expand our sales and margin performance. Our business remains profitable even with oil at current prices and we continue to work closely with our partner, PetroChina, to identify new opportunities to further expand our market presence in northern China."
Bob, Shaw Group (SGR) announced a big contract today for nukes in China. China says they're gonna build about 20 nukulur plants. Now do you get it?
margin calls on DNDN are a nonissue as DNDN is trading over $25 afterhours.
DNDN news was EXCELLENT!!!! Expect it to pop over $30 tomorrow. Extends life by 4.1 months among prostate cancer patients with a particular type of cancer. Sounds much better than putting ratioactive birdshot in your prostate gland.
Go DNDN.
OOPS, sold mine this morning and didn't have the kahunas to buy it back before the "stop trading" occurred.
'peeker
2morrowsGains, thanks for pointing out WEMU. Bought a small stake yesterday and today, based on their strong numbers, VERY aggressive growth plan and NASDAQ listing plans.
Very high insider ownership will probably limit upside, and (being very candid) I cannot figure out why they would want to have private stock ownership if things are as great as they say. I guess the answer is that they will need to raise a lot of capital to grow the company at a fast pace.
Low trading volume for such a low-float stock is problematic. Optimistic projections aside, I guess it's now time to see how their next 2 qtrs in a pro-solar environment work out for the stock price.
'peeker
The Wall Street Journal reports regulators have told Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) that the banks may need to raise more capital based on early results of the government's so-called stress tests of lenders, according to people familiar with the situation. The capital shortfall amounts to billions of dollars at Bank of America, people familiar with the bank said. Executives at both banks are objecting to the preliminary findings, which emerged from the government's scrutiny of 19 large financial institutions. The two banks are planning to respond with detailed rebuttals, these people said, with Bank of America's appeal expected by Tuesday. The findings suggest that government officials are using the stress tests to send a tough message to struggling banks. Government officials say their meetings about the stress tests with bank executives over the past few days conveyed preliminary results and that discussions were expected to continue this week about specific findings. They also say that banks directed to raise more capital shouldn't be viewed as insolvent. While the Fed initially planned to release the results of the stress tests on May 4, the government says the results will be released sometime that week. Bank of America's capital hole as measured by the regulators is in the billions, said people close to the co, placing added pressure on management as the co prepares for a Wednesday shareholder meeting in Charlotte. It isn't clear how big a capital deficit Citigroup faces. At meetings Friday at the New York Fed's headquarters near Wall Street, government examiners informed Citigroup executives that the preliminary stress-test results indicated the co needed more capital, according to a person familiar with the matter.
7am: Gapping up: NVAX +18.4%, PRXL +17.3%, APT +12.8%, BCRX +10.8%, AAN +5.0%, SUPG +3.9%, LOPE +2.0%, BIDU +1.9%, BP +1.9%, EW +1.3%... Gapping down: BAC -13.6%, LCC -10.0%, C -9.8%, X -9.6%, RCII -7.6%, NTRS -7.3%, DT -7.3%, RTP -6.8%, MT -5.8%, ING -5.2%, WFC -4.9%, AAUK -4.9%, HBI -4.7%, DB -4.0%, WMGI -3.9%, MS -3.3%, JPM -3.1%, HBC -2.9%, BHP -2.7%.
Gapping up: NVAX +18.4%, PRXL +17.3%, APT +12.8%, BCRX +10.8%, AAN +5.0%, SUPG +3.9%, LOPE +2.0%, BIDU +1.9%, BP +1.9%, EW +1.3%... Gapping down: BAC -13.6%, LCC -10.0%, C -9.8%, X -9.6%, RCII -7.6%, NTRS -7.3%, DT -7.3%, RTP -6.8%, MT -5.8%, ING -5.2%, WFC -4.9%, AAUK -4.9%, HBI -4.7%, DB -4.0%, WMGI -3.9%, MS -3.3%, JPM -3.1%, HBC -2.9%, BHP -2.7%.
Yieldude and Cl001, thanks for the feedback on VIVO. Bought a little today and may flip for a profit when I have enough to pay for a month of health insurance.
FEED sellers here? Down 12% today at this point. Downside probably limited by low P/E, but who knows what happens if Chinese decide to give up pork for awhile?
This company is a big pig producer and pig feed producer in China. Anybody hearing big negatives on this one today amid the swine flu psychodrama? Swine flu appears less serious than bird flu, and pigs don't fly.
cl001, why VIVO?
I see they are a relatively large diagnostic testing company, but are you keen on them because they sell a kit or treatment specifically for flu testing?
Well-written update on swine flu situation from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601130&sid=a5f6UcaWfaIQ&refer=environment
Forget shorting pork; buy VIX call spreads!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602005&sid=aXYa4PFp1gCY&refer=world_indices
Wade, are you playing the stress test details to be announced soon? Details will be followed in a few days by designation of which banks passed (all probably), including which will need more capital.
Friedman Billings has an opinion about financial stocks' reactions to the stress test details to be announced:
Friedman Billings expects the stocks of the cos who pass (or are rumored to pass) the stress test will trade up strongly. They note yesterday, COF closed up 12%, apparently on market chatter that the co had passed the stress test. They believe most cos should "pass", none will be described as failing, but some will need more capital; they also believe the govt will not let most cos repay TARP. They expect that most cos will be told that they have adequate capital, and so most of these cos may see a near-term pop in their stocks. While everyone won't fall into this category, this suggests that there is near-term risk in being short the group. However, the risk to owning the group is if the govt lays out a capital target that is stricter than the market anticipates, it would be viewed as a negative. They believe that higher capital levels for the group would be a positive in the long-run, but it may be painful trying to get there. In today' release, they will look for, most importantly, capital targets, although they do not expect a specific number, (they have heard about 3% TCE above risk weighted assets).
live long and prosper ... ;>)
NUE: Nucor Earnings Call Summary: demand is virtually non-existent (39.70 -4.37)
On its earnings call, co says these are the most challenging steel markets this management team has ever seen. Co reminds us that 2001-2003 was an economic downturn, NUE prepared itself for the eventual recovery. The severity of this downturn is unprecedented. Industry capacity utilization was just 41% in Q1 vs 90% a year ago. This is the first losing qtr in Nucor's history. Co has yet to see any evidence the economy has reached bottom. Business conditions have worsened each month so far in 2009. It's extremely ugly out there. .. Co says it has the strongest balance sheet in the US steel industry. Nucor is among the lowest cost steel producers in the world. It is the most diversified steel producer in the US. Co says Q1 imports continue to enter the market... Co says its liquidity position remains very strong, it has no borrowings on its unsecured credit facility and it has no outstanding commercial paper... In its steelmaking operations, Q1 shipments declined 53% yr/yr; utilization rate was just 45% in Q1, vs 92% in Q108. .. Demand was very weak for fabricated steel products... Co was asked why its Q2 guidance was more pessimistic than its competitors. Co says it has a very realistic view of the world, not based on best wishes. Co has seen a deterioration in pricing in Q1 and into Q2. Co says the industry has to go through the automotive and supplier market changes.... Co says it has never seen utilization levels so low. Country has not seen this low since the Great Depression... There is enough business fallout that prices could go lower from here. Also, imports are higher than the co would like to see. Demand is virtually non-existent... Co thinks steelmaking capacity throughout the industry will be reduced in the coming years. Fewer cars are going to be made and there are other factors. The lack of demand should reduce capacity in the US... Co says Q2 will not be stronger than Q1.
AGT: Well let's hope the stock price percolates up to your age (divided by a hundred, of course).
'peeker
Solar companies: Barclays says they see no reason why the solar rally should lose steam if the broader mkts continue to rally. However firm believes real buying (as opposed to short covering) from instituitional investors would require broad based improvement in fundamentals. Firm expects two factors to determine if fundamentals are indeed improving. First, volume uptick in the month of May. Second, margin trends for solar companies (module ASP trends and poly price trends in May). In general, firm's longer term view of the sector has improved with the recent introduction of subsidies in Japan, China and the U.S. Firm is seeing more government support for renewables, and supply cuts as well as poly price declines are occuring at a rapid pace. Cos with relatively strong fundamentals include YGE, JASO and TSL. Firm also expects SPWRA, ENER and FSLR to be primary beneficiaries of large scale commercial/utility project deployment in the U.S.
Gapping up: In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RSH +18.4%, PTV +16.7%, AN +15.2% (light volume), MCRI +13.9% (light volume), RCL +13.1%, IRBT +12.2%, DAVE +11.9%, FITB +11.7%, NUVA +10.7%, WGOV +10.6% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), JBLU +10.2%, RTN +10.2%, CMG +9.9%, CNX +9.8%, TASR +9.6%, GRT +7.5% (light volume), LCC +6.0%, TQNT +5.8% (light volume), MI +5.7%, EBAY +5.4%, PNC +5.1%, YUM +5.0%, MAR +4.8% (light volume), NVS +4.7%, QCOM +4.2% (Revenue and operating income for the second quarter of fiscal 2009, excluding the potential impact of the Broadcom agreement, met or exceeded prior guidance), HSY +4.1%, COP +4.0%, NE +4.0%, NVLS +3.9%, XLNX +3.9%, DO +3.7%, AAPL +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan), CKH +2.6%... Select financial related names trading higher: CS +11.2% (flies above forecast on big trading gain - Reuters), RF +7.8%, FIG +7.3%, ING +7.1%, BCS +6.3% (Chairman says no intention to raise more capital - DJ), IBN +6.0%, GNW +5.3%, DB +5.0%, WFC +4.0%, FMER +3.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BAC +3.4%, USB +2.5%, C +2.2%, MS +1.6% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), JPM +1.4%, GS +1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: RTP +5.1%, MT +3.3%, BHP +1.9%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: E +3.2%, TOT +3.1%, BP +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at RBS), RDS.A +2.1%... Other news: ABMD +26.1% (receives FDA 510(k) clearance for Impella 5.0 and Impella LD), ACOR +14.5% (resubmits new drug application for Fampridine-SR for improvement of walking ability in people with multiple sclerosis), LVS +8.8% (still checking), MICC +8.8% (still checking), BRCM +8.4% (Qualcomm reschedules earnings release due to settlement discussions with Broadcom; also upgraded to Market Perform at JMP), DRYS +5.4% (still checking), NOK +3.8% (still checking), NDAQ +3.3% (announces March 2009 stats)... Analyst comments: EBAY +6.6% (upgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), TIN +4.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), BRCD +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).
OPCO sounds like it does business like DAAT (develops products and tries to market them to big retailers, but has no headaches with retail operations), except that they don't have the ongoing margin pressure forced by WMT. Could be a good grower, but the reality of less available disposable income during tough economic times applies to pet products, too.
Worth watching, like you say.
In answer to your question about pet owners' propensity to spend on Rober and Snookums:
My two 20-something daughters have sunk more into their puppies than I would ever have imagined.
GRS initiated with Buy at UBS (6.36)
China’s Copper, Aluminum Imports Climb on Government Stimulus
By William Bi in Beijing at wbi@bloomberg.net
April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and aluminum imports by China, the largest consumer, jumped in March as the country’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus program increased demand, cushioning the economy from the global recession.
Inbound shipments of refined copper advanced 10 percent from the previous month to 296,843 metric tons and primary aluminum imports surged seven times to 85,965 tons, customs data showed. Copper imports were a record, Wanxiang Resources Co. analyst Sheng Weimin said. Zinc, lead and tin purchases gained.
China’s economy, the world’s third-largest, will expand faster than previously forecast this year and next as government spending spurs domestic demand and boosts investment, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note today. The country’s copper, aluminum and zinc prices were above international levels, bolstering imports, Barclays Capital said this month.
Metals imports climbed because of “favorable arbitrage,” Sheng said from Shanghai today. Wanxiang is one of China’s top copper importers. “We expect this month’s copper purchases to be even higher,” he said. “The momentum may only cool if scrap imports start to rebound significantly from May.”
Copper imports are being fueled by a shortage of scrap material and government buying, according to Scotia Capital Inc. China’s refined copper purchases may jump to a record 2 million tons this year, Simon Collins, general manager of Trafigura Trading Shanghai Co., said in February.
Aluminum Imports
Refined copper purchases jumped 92 percent to 748,281 tons in the first three months of the year from the year ago period, while scrap imports slumped 48 percent to 731,974 tons, customs data showed. Imports of primary aluminum more than tripled to 115,755 tons in the first three months, the data showed.
“Primary aluminum shipments could surge to 200,000 tons this month,” said Eric Zhang, an analyst at CBI China Co., who said in February the imports are going to climb. “The increases are not yet enough to ease tight domestic supplies.”
The State Reserve Bureau bought 590,000 tons of aluminum and 159,000 tons of zinc from domestic smelters this year for strategic reserves. The bureau has contracted to take 300,000 tons to 400,000 tons of refined copper into its stockpiles from overseas, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts last month.
Should support Cu prices:
BHP Billiton says Escondida copper output to fall 30% in FY09 - DJ (45.74)
DJ reports the co said the total output at its majority owned Escondida copper mine in Chile will fall by 30% during the 2009 financial year because of lower grades and ongoing issues with a mill. Escondida is the world's largest copper mine and produced 1.22 million metric tons of copper during the 2008 financial year ending June 30, so a drop of 30% equates to roughly 366,000 tons of copper. Technical issues with the Laguna Seca SAG mill that have dogged output are expected to be resolved during the September quarter, BHP said.
POE sounds like they had tremendous 4th qtr and yr, and stock price should move up from here. I cannot understand why this stock would not be a double or better in the next yr.
'peeker
IMHO, Permit delays are not the concern of GORO mgt, because getting the site constructed and ready to go has taken longer than they expected. They have been deliberate and steady, but it has just taken longer than expected. Having the permit out there keeps the HEAT off of GORO mgt. Mgt prefers that their public stockholders are frustrated with the "slow, inefficient and untrustworthy Mexican gov't" rather than with GORO mgt.
Just think ... if the permit had been approved in the past, wouldn't there be lots of calls to GORO headquarters asking, "What is the latest and greatest reason for all the delays?"
Just my opinion, but I'd say they won't have a problem starting the operation AFTER the construction and equipment installations are complete, and I think the permit will precede GORO's being ready to go with the mill and heavy equipment.
It will take getting operations underway and a PR campaign to get stock price headed higher, but since the stock is so heavily owned by institutional and insiders, GORO's excellent management team will continue to be very deliberate with all their actions. I don't think Hothschild wants the stock price to take off too quickly, because they have the option to buy up to 40% of the company in the public market AFTER some particular point in time (I think they can start buying in public market in about 1.5 yrs if my memory serves me right).
I think this company has lots of good news and a much higher stock price ahead, but we public stockholders really have little control here.
'peeker
The idea behind the original VMC Zip Code Changer board was to provide a place for discussion of unprofitable companies that had good prospects for the future. Many good ideas were put forth on that board for a long time, but it somehow degraded to a place for political rants, miscellaneous argumentation, and personal conflict.
When VMC Zip Code Changer was renamed the VMC FFA (free for all) board (at same time VMC Motherboard was restricted to paid-only posters), it became a place that non-paying VMC readers could post anything they liked. In other words it invited players to a great big ambiguous free-for-all, while the VMC Motherboard became more "exclusive".
Hopefully this (free) VMC ZCC Classic board will be used to highlight stocks of currently unprofitable companies (and profitable ones too, like NGA) that have great potential for major success in future.
Like a family reunion, please avoid discussion of religion and politics so everyone can enjoy the meal.
Good luck to those who post and read what's posted here, and thanks to KiK for kicking it off.
'peeker
AGT christening party with photos for the company website and high probability that a PR will follow to kick off their PR drive to let the world know about AGT potential (with pictures for context). I'm sure some photos taken tomorrow will be included in AGT's next annual report and future Powerpoint presentations (available for download from their website). Quality photos do add to investor perspective (e.g., GORO website), and it's so easy to post photos on a website.
Great to know; thanks for posting this pre-PR advisory. I'm pumped for a good move in AGT over the next 6 months as their operations and PR campaign get going. Thanks for bringing ("pumping") AGT and Black Fox to our attention, with Grey Fox to follow.
Risk averse PM investors might want to avoid AGT if they are concerned about Canadian pirates, treehuggers, and drug lords.
'peeker
AGT price showed a funky-fine sale afterhours at .40 so let's hope that's a good omen for better days ahead. Maybe wadegarrett will hop on board and take us right on up...up...up.
'peeker