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I should clarify that it was simply a self-reinforcing community on IHub in regard to IDCC. Dr. Frost had nothing to do with that, nor was this a biomedical stock.
Somewhat OT:
While I am a shareholder in CDXC and excited by it's prospects, I think it is important to not rely totally on self-reinforcing posts, even if they sound good, on tieups with OPK (which I've seen several times reading recent posts on this board) or even TEVA, or on relying on the acumen of Dr. Frost.
I had too much of that on IDCC and rode that puppy up AND back down. Disclosure: I am long CDXC, OPK, TEVA and PBTH, all of which are closely associated with Dr. Frost, and have not shorted a stock since the 1970's. I also have no form of options, either puts or calls and own no ETF or mutual fund which relies on shorting.
The interesting critical piece I just read is:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541-opko-health-investors-likely-to-get-frostbite?source=yahoo
Clearly, I do not agree with his conclusions, but appreciate the different perspective.
"Opko Health: Investors Likely To Get Frostbite
June 15, 2012 | 13 comments | about: OPK, includes: IDI, NIMU.PK, PLX, ROX, SFES.PK, TEVA, WPHM.PK
As we showed in our first article, we cannot justify a valuation for Opko Health (OPK) anywhere close to the puzzling $1.4 billion market cap that it currently trades at. If we assume Opko's pipeline is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 million, then the company's shares have a built-in equity premium of close to $1 billion. We think that a large portion of Opko's valuation premium is driven by the presence of the company's CEO, billionaire Phillip Frost, and are confident that much of Opko's fervent bullish community agrees with us on that.
When we take a quick look through bullish research for Opko or the message boards for Opko stock, we find numerous claims that by investing in Opko, long holders are investing alongside a genius. For instance, see articles here, here, here and here, where long holders cite Frost's presence as a key reason for owning OPK. Holders refer to Frost's success in selling his two pharmaceutical companies Key Pharmaceuticals (1986) and Ivax Corporation (2006), as well as his current post as Chairman of Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). It is no secret that Dr. Frost owns a lot of Opko, and he continues to buy more shares of the company on a regular basis. The bullish argument says that since Dr. Frost owns tons of Opko and is buying more, we should follow his lead.
But our research into Dr. Frost's background shows that while he has had some successes over his forty years as a pharma executive, his investment acumen leaves much to be desired. In fact, looking over his recent investment record, we find that he invested heavily in a fraudulent Chinese company and in numerous other pharmaceutical companies whose shares have subsequently fallen dramatically. Most damningly, he was a large shareholder and director in Protalix, a company that managed to destroy $1.8 billion of shareholder wealth in a single utterly incomprehensible day. Given Dr. Frost's flawed investment record, we think it is rather odd that the market would assign a nearly billion dollar premium to Opko's valuation merely due to Dr. Frost's repeated share purchases. If anything, investors should apply a discount to Opko's shares, given the possibility of getting Protalix-ed again in the near future. ..."
The article goes on extensively and does not specifically mention CDXC. The author discloses that he is short OPK. Clearly, he has an interest in driving OPK stock down and really may dislike Dr. Frost.
Now back to lurking.
Interesting article.
InterMune to Divest Actimmune® (Interferon Gamma-1b)
-- To divest Actimmune for $55 million in cash plus a two-year royalty stream --
-- Transaction provides additional financial flexibility --
PR NewswirePress Release: InterMune, Inc. – 4 minutes 35 seconds ago
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intermune-divest-actimmune-interferon-gamma-205000111.html
BRISBANE, Calif., May 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- InterMune, Inc. (ITMN) today announced that it has reached a definitive agreement with Vidara Therapeutics International Limited (Vidara) to sell its rights to Actimmune® (interferon gamma-1b) in a cash transaction valued at $55 million plus a two-year royalty stream. Vidara is part of an international specialty pharmaceutical group of companies with operations in Ireland and the United States.
Dan Welch, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of InterMune said, "Several years ago, we stopped investigating new uses for Actimmune and it became a tactical financial asset for InterMune. The divesture of Actimmune will provide additional capital for InterMune to continue to focus on and invest in the registration and commercialization of Esbriet® (pirfenidone) in Europe and elsewhere and to continue to advance our R&D programs. The cash infusion from this transaction combined with $377.2 million of existing cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2012 will provide additional financial resources to execute our Vision 2015 strategic plan."
The transaction with Vidara is expected to close during the second quarter of 2012, subject to satisfaction of certain closing conditions. Locust Walk Partners LLC is acting as exclusive financial advisor to InterMune in connection with the transaction.
Would not be surprised if that study team next tried a low-dose regimen of strychnine.
Thanks for the links and thoughts. Been away.
Interesting article, tho I did not see whether the drug was aimed at mild-to-moderate IPF like Esbriet or if it was for more severe cases. Are these the full range of competition for marketing an IPF drug?
They really should pursue legal action, as a small company introducing a new drug can't afford much bad publicity. There have to be many people here in the US who are desperate enough to try buying from a "Canadian" pharmacy.
Really had to turn up the sound on that one. I did not realize it is available in Canada now, per this doctor.
4:06 PM InterMune (ITMN): Q4 EPS of -$0.69 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $7.81M (-96.8% Y/Y) in-line. Shares +2.3% AH. (PR) [Earnings, Healthcare, On the Move] Comment!
ITMN 4th quarter results in: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=100067&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1659178&highlight=&source=email_rt_mc&ifp=0
InterMune Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2011 Financial Results and Business Highlights
BRISBANE, Calif., Feb. 9, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- InterMune, Inc. (NASDAQ: ITMN) today announced results from operations for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2011.
InterMune reported product revenue in the fourth quarter of 2011 of $7.8 million, consisting of $2.7 million from sales of Esbriet in Europe, and Actimmune® (gamma interferon-1b) revenue of approximately $5.2 million. Product sales in the fourth quarter 2010 consisted solely of $4.9 million of Actimmune revenue, as the initial commercial launch of Esbriet was in Germany in September 2011.
InterMune reported a net loss for the fourth quarter of 2011 of $44.5 million, or $0.69 per share, compared with net income of $206.1 million, or $3.34 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2010. Net income in the fourth quarter of 2010 was driven by the sale of InterMune's danoprevir asset to Roche and the accelerated recognition of deferred revenue in connection with the termination of InterMune's 2006 collaboration agreement with Roche.
Dan Welch, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of InterMune said, "The fourth quarter was the first full quarter of the commercial launch of Esbriet in Germany, marking the first commercial launch in Europe of an approved therapy for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We are very pleased that the Esbriet launch is off to a very strong start and is among the most successful launches of a specialty product in Germany in terms of revenue and new patient prescriptions. We are also very encouraged by the new Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) and survival data from our RECAP study which illustrates favorable outcomes observed in IPF patients treated with pirfenidone for a year or more."
Recent Business and Clinical Development Highlights ...
OK, Thanks.
GHMM, The link is no longer functioning. Would you mind reposting?
BTW, are you located here in the DC area?
Up 9+ percent this a.m. Something must be up.
GHMM, Yes. Thanks. Steve
Hi GHMM,
Do you think that they have the cash to do all those studies, above and beyond their costs to pursue their rollout in country after country in Europe?
Has anyone heard a possiblity of slowing or altering the order of rollouts given the (now-old) news from Germany?
Has anyone heard about specific actions they are taking to fight that negative recommendation in Germany?
Steve
Disc: I am long ITMN
Their predictions sound much more specific this year.
Some of the other predictions were interesting as well.
Slocat, Thanks! I will explore that link. Steve
RV, Do you have a link to that portion of the BNN show? I haven't found it using their search feature. Steve
SandRidge Energy Q3 Profit Rises
11/3/2011 5:04 PM ET Tweet
(RTTNews) - Oil producer SandRidge Energy, Inc. (SD: News ), Thursday said its profit for the third-quarter available to common stockholders increased to $561 million or $1.16 per share from $298 million or $0.73 per share in the comparable quarter last year.
Adjusted net income for the quarter was of $2.8 million or $0.01 per share, compared to adjusted net loss of $24.3 million or $0.06 per share last year.
Twenty-four analysts had a consensus earnings estimate of breakeven per share for the quarter. Analysts' estimate typically exclude one-time items.
Adjusted net income including realized gains on out-of-period derivative contract settlements was $12.7 million or $0.03 per share, as compared to adjusted net income including realized gains on out-of-period derivative contract settlements of $23.7 million or $0.06 per share in third quarter of 2010.
Total revenues for the third quarter increased to $363.8 million from $245.2 million in the corresponding quarter last year. Nine analysts on consensus expected revenues of $357.81 million for the quarter.
http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?ID=1751713
And now I see the answer, that Roche had purchased Danoprevir rights from ITMN.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/300087-roche-may-be-hoping-that-anadys-is-cheap-insurance?source=yahoo
I thought this interesting: Roche acquired Intermune LAST YEAR?
http://www.inpharm.com/news/169363/roche-buys-us-firm-anadys-230-million
"Roche has acquired US firm Anadys for $230 million, bolstering its infectious drugs pipeline.
California-based Anadys develops oral, small molecule therapeutics for the potential treatment of hepatitis C.
The firm’s most advanced drug candidate is setrobuvir (ANA598), a direct-acting antiviral compound that is currently undergoing Phase II studies in combination with Roche’s interferon drugs Pegasys and Copegus.
The deal will build Roche’s $175 million acquisition of US-based InterMune last year. ..."
LA, Have some faith. While some of the longs here have been following Moses (JimLur) through the desert for 40 years (I guess as much as 20 for some of the old-timers, 5 for me), the promised land (I really hate to sound SO optimistic, but I am) is just over the next mountain range. Steve
GHMM, Thanks for those posts. Steve
I listened to the conference call too, and was pleased with the measured approach they were taking to the rollout and the net price. The need for added capital logically followed and I was happy the 4.6 million shares was the limit.
Joel, One of your best posts yet. Steve
Oh, Copaxone case will shake out one way or the other. Not worried about stuff I have no control over, altho clearly I'd prefer Teva still have exclusivity til 2014. I'd buy TEVA even w/o exclusivity.
Ah yes, duds. I've had a couple.
My pharma/biotech stocks other than ITMN are DSCO, MHS (just waiting for the buyout to complete here), OSUR, PBTH, RNN TEVA, and TZYM. Good luck getting much info on some of them and some are very thinly traded.
One nice thing about the Israeli biotech firms like PBTH are the grants they can get without having to pay the government of Israel back.
OT- Thank you.
Also OT, are there any specific underappreciated stocks you might consider worthwhile for my doing DD on? If so, I'm happy to take this part of the conversation offline: I can give you an initial email of someconcerns at aim dot com.
BTW, I bought ITMN after it had esbriet rejected by the FDA and it tanked. So I'm still in a nice position, despite it having come down.
GHMM,
There should be interest. Maybe just not in this forum.
Do you have an opinion on whether the ITMN drug should have an effect on Cystic Fibrosis and other fibrotic diseases? In the "Emerging Potential Treatments..." paper, NAC was the only other treatment (yes, in combination with other drugs) showing positive results and that, I believe has been under study for CF.
The reason I ask is that I have a kid with CF and am always interested in research and companies doing the research which may potentially aid her.
TIA.
Steve
ghmm, Thanks for posting those studies. Steve
Doubled down at $6.52. Hopefully for better, rather than worse.
Is there anything preventing Google or Apple or another potential purchaser NOT already in talks to buy IDCC from buying ditm calls? Are calls counted as an ownership interest requiring reporting? Or does the requirement kick in at five percent ownership of actual shares?
I realize that an entity in discussion with IDCC management or Barclays on behalf of IDCC would have potential insider trading issues.
Just asking...
Joel,
IMHO, I believe the final buyout structure is likely to come in the form of X portion of a share (of Google, Apple, or fill in the blank with another buyer) PLUS Y portion of a share if we win at the CAFC and Z portion if we win the new action at the ITC. This assumes those decisions do not preceed a buyout agreement. Hopefully, management will structure this as a tax-free exchange of shares.
Steve
Felix,
Maybe, along that line, they can hire Nokia's attorneys as defense consultants.
Seriously tho, there were three prior press releases I noted using very similar language, so I don't know if these people all aggregate to a single plaintiff's attorney and share the fees in proportion to who they sign up, or if they are in competition and simply steal each other's work (IMHO).
Even if I were distressed at IDCC selling off the present communications IP cheaply, who is to know yet? We are just at the start of the process, and the range of guesstimates as to the form of the sale (all of IDCC, lock, stock and barrel VS just selling the present IP and keeping IDCC as a patent-producing machine and maybe keeping the compression patents) and the ultimate price illustrate we know very little.
We have to see how this shakes out before deciding that management may or may not have breached it's fiducuary duty to it's present shareholders. And even that will just be an opinion. I do appreciate the BOD putting the company into play.
Good luck to all longs!
Steve
HJ,
I saw several of these ambulance chasers proposing the same thing on the news clips at Yahoo last week. Many people looking to collect a fee.
Steve
Claytrader,
Thanks for doing that chart. I appreciate hearing and seeing your technical analysis of IDCC (even tho TA is largely voodoo to me).
Steve
nWo, Guess that answers my question fully. Thanks for looking it up! Steve
NWO,
Did TEVA simply agree to cease and desist from sale for that period, or was there also some monetary settlement, one way or the other?
Steve