Friday, June 15, 2012 3:18:38 PM
While I am a shareholder in CDXC and excited by it's prospects, I think it is important to not rely totally on self-reinforcing posts, even if they sound good, on tieups with OPK (which I've seen several times reading recent posts on this board) or even TEVA, or on relying on the acumen of Dr. Frost.
I had too much of that on IDCC and rode that puppy up AND back down. Disclosure: I am long CDXC, OPK, TEVA and PBTH, all of which are closely associated with Dr. Frost, and have not shorted a stock since the 1970's. I also have no form of options, either puts or calls and own no ETF or mutual fund which relies on shorting.
The interesting critical piece I just read is:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541-opko-health-investors-likely-to-get-frostbite?source=yahoo
Clearly, I do not agree with his conclusions, but appreciate the different perspective.
"Opko Health: Investors Likely To Get Frostbite
June 15, 2012 | 13 comments | about: OPK, includes: IDI, NIMU.PK, PLX, ROX, SFES.PK, TEVA, WPHM.PK
As we showed in our first article, we cannot justify a valuation for Opko Health (OPK) anywhere close to the puzzling $1.4 billion market cap that it currently trades at. If we assume Opko's pipeline is worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 million, then the company's shares have a built-in equity premium of close to $1 billion. We think that a large portion of Opko's valuation premium is driven by the presence of the company's CEO, billionaire Phillip Frost, and are confident that much of Opko's fervent bullish community agrees with us on that.
When we take a quick look through bullish research for Opko or the message boards for Opko stock, we find numerous claims that by investing in Opko, long holders are investing alongside a genius. For instance, see articles here, here, here and here, where long holders cite Frost's presence as a key reason for owning OPK. Holders refer to Frost's success in selling his two pharmaceutical companies Key Pharmaceuticals (1986) and Ivax Corporation (2006), as well as his current post as Chairman of Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA). It is no secret that Dr. Frost owns a lot of Opko, and he continues to buy more shares of the company on a regular basis. The bullish argument says that since Dr. Frost owns tons of Opko and is buying more, we should follow his lead.
But our research into Dr. Frost's background shows that while he has had some successes over his forty years as a pharma executive, his investment acumen leaves much to be desired. In fact, looking over his recent investment record, we find that he invested heavily in a fraudulent Chinese company and in numerous other pharmaceutical companies whose shares have subsequently fallen dramatically. Most damningly, he was a large shareholder and director in Protalix, a company that managed to destroy $1.8 billion of shareholder wealth in a single utterly incomprehensible day. Given Dr. Frost's flawed investment record, we think it is rather odd that the market would assign a nearly billion dollar premium to Opko's valuation merely due to Dr. Frost's repeated share purchases. If anything, investors should apply a discount to Opko's shares, given the possibility of getting Protalix-ed again in the near future. ..."
The article goes on extensively and does not specifically mention CDXC. The author discloses that he is short OPK. Clearly, he has an interest in driving OPK stock down and really may dislike Dr. Frost.
Now back to lurking.
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