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"I think it would be almost impossible for a naked short to push it under $2 after the split."
this will be especially true if they time it artfully with some good news on the business/product developmental side.... that is what i would do in this situation... give 'em a 1, 2 punch... i am hoping this announcement foreshadows such positive material news...
thoughtful series of posts... with many excellent points... thank you for taking the time...
as an investor i would be satisfied with $4 to $5 by EOY 2014... not at all with $2... but then again the market really could not care less as to whether or not i am satisfied... if things go really, really well... i don't think a run to $10 is out of the question... the issue of cash would have to be settled for this to happen... as in a Brilacidin partner for ABSSSI making a substantial down payment on this indication... along with 4-6 ongoing trials including a couple of K combos... with multiple positive data points being reported... this could take us to $10... but as you correctly point out... things often take longer than intended in this investment space... again appreciate your thoughtful posts...
agreed... apples to oranges in my opinion... i'll take management at their word... that there are sufficient material developments to drive the pps where it needs to go... i eagerly await the announcements of those developments... have some money coming free on Friday... may make one final purchase... fully loaded with XXII regardless and ready to watch this one run... patience... it will run again soon...
Agreed... although i generally hate reverse splits... especially in dilution crazy developmental biotechs... this r/s looks to be qualitatively different and will likely be very beneficial to shareholders... with an O/S of about 50 million shares this r/s is clearly not being done to get control of a bloated share structure... it has the markings of a power play to overcome a dominate and persistent... and quite possibly soon... a desperate naked short foe...
finally consider this... at a 5:1 r/s the o/s will drop to only 10 million... give the uplist some time to take effect... the share price to rise... clipstream the opportunity to gain traction... and so on... and in the not all too distant future... i would guess we might be looking at a forward split of... oh, say... five to one... and if so longs would get those shares right back... after a little while... the forward split would likely be necessary to provide adequate liquidity for institutional investors... such that institutional investors will be asking for it... imo...
"There has been plenty of info posted about Bruce McDonald. He was famous for stock promotions on the Vancouver Stock Exchange..which was notorious for death spiral financing."
Shares become essentially limitless to the naked short seller... especially if the intent is a death spiral which would cause the bankruptcy of the entity thereby obsolving the need to ever account for the uncovered shares... if this is what is happening to DSNY... then the uplist would force the accountability of the phantom shares... the quote below suggests that a naked short position can grow to be "greater than the public float"... in thinly traded stocks... this war appears to have been going on for quite a long while... it looks like the final battle may soon be joiined... this is hand-to-hand combat on the OTC... down and dirty... a fight to the finish... DSNY is about to drive a stake through the heart of its tormentor...
Quote below is posted from:
http://www.rgm.com/articles/Finnerty-ShortSelling.pdf
"Many issuers and investors have complained about alleged “naked short selling,” especially in thinly-capitalized securities trading over-the-counter. Naked short selling is selling short without borrowing the necessary securities to make delivery, thus potentially resulting in a “fail to deliver” securities to the buyer. Naked short selling can have a number of negative effects on the market, particularly when the fails to deliver persist for an extended period of time and result in a significantly large unfulfilled delivery obligation at the clearing agency where trades are settled. At times, the amount of fails to deliver may be greater than the total public float.In effect the naked short seller unilaterally converts a securities contract (which should settle in three days after the trade date) into an undated futures-type contract, which the buyer might not have agreed to or that would have been priced differently. The seller’s failure to deliver securities may also adversely affect certain rights of the buyer, such as the right to vote. More significantly, naked short sellers enjoy greater leverage than if they were required to borrow securities and deliver within a reasonable time period, and they may use this additional leverage to engage in trading activities that deliberately depress the price of a security. (SEC, 2003b, pages 6-7.)"
It's been what... a month plus... and we are talking about repeating an 8 year process.... geeesshh... the impatience of the modern investor sometimes is incomprehensible to me... let's give them a quarter or two first before we settle in for an 8 year journey...
these games work best when volume is low... look to an increase in volume to signal the next leg up... the low, low volumes of the past two days was just begging for manipulation... it was painfully slow today... until the bargain hunters stepped in when the pps slipped... an uplist will definitely support increased volume and diminish the effectiveness of games such as these...
1.966 close on a little over 100k shares traded... no worries... i don't trust the if we get this announcement, then the pps will do this pronouncements... what i trust is a sound business plan that is well executed... with that... the pps takes care of itself... here are signs of a healthy developmental phase biotech...
1) multiple clinical trials in multiple treatment indications
2) good to excellent data from those trials
3) involved with excellent scientific institutions
4) partnership(s) with excellent companies
5) substantial revenue from partnerships to offset cost of science
6) careful management of finances and share structure
7) substantial insider ownership
CTIX has some of these... and is pursuing the rest... until the fundamentals of the investment thesis change... until there is negative material news... there is nothing to fear from the fluctuating pps...
the share price of CTIX will climb again, and soon... imo... but it may be when you are not expecting it... glta...
z... you better sign me up... i'll come in tomorrow morning... after i make "one last purchase"... then i'll give it up... better sign me up for the long-term program
with all this company has going for it... i find it difficult to conjure up a valuation in which it can't at least maintain a 92.5 mil market cap... that is anything short of absolute disaster... which is always possible, but generally unlikely... imo... from here a one billion dollar market cap is a 10.8 multiple... even with a pedestrian p/e multiple of 8.33... XXII would only need to net 120 million in profit annually to justify a one billion dollar market cap... this with multiple ways to make money... and technology that is potentially disruptive of a 700 billion dollar global industry... i have never seen a nano cap with a more favorable risk profile... rather amazing...
of course the potential reward is a multiple of x10, x100 or maybe even x1000 even it becomes the Monsanto of tobacco... then there is the possibility mentioned by Van of spinning off several independent businesses... from the core company...
i really shouldn't be buying more... i have quite a lot already... but at these prices, and with this risk/reward profile... it is just too hard to say no... my portfolio looks ugly red today... but it is temporary and well worth it to grab a few more shares of XXII for bargain prices... glta...
sabby the gift that just keeps on giving...
"These current bid whacking sellers have panicked."
yes... indeed... and just in time too... loading retirement plans with new year funds... buyer today... buyer again tomorrow... XXII is on sale... very, very nice... market cap dropped to 92.5 mil for this little gem... wildly undervalued...
re: your request... consider it done... message indicated my name has been saved for future consideration...
indeed... taking one's basis off is one of the things i learned from Biomanbaba... it saved my arse on 1/31/13 when CLSN failed miserably... fortunately following Bio's advice i had already rolled my basis money into CTIX and SBFM... where they have remained... 2014 will be the year... i think... when those dollars will surpass the holdings i had in CLSN before it crashed... i plan to take my basis off again when CTIX and SBFM run hard... Bioman played hard with his investments... this space isn't for everyone... i am grateful for the survival lessons he provided...
Karin... so sorry for your loss... i understand that you knew Henry well through investing... and that a friendship had developed through your communications...
i received your pm regarding that out of control poster on another board... appreciated your wise advice... i had already put him on ignore and my world grew immediately more peaceful...
"If you first bought there fine, but CTIX has not been in rally mode for many months and the PRs have been pretty empty."
Agree with you that if you take a 12-month view... CTIX pps has been flat at best... disagree about the nature of the prs... i am very pleased with the progression of the company... frustrated, as are you, with pps over past year... i see some life in the pps with the December reversal from the fibo retracement to 1.40... i expected a battle at $2... so i am not surprised at all by recent churning... material news will drive this higher... imo... though i share your frustration with the long, very long, past year of non-performance when it comes to pps...
it rallied from 1.40 to 2.00 in a month and is now consolidating nicely give or take in the 2 area... i am very satisfied with current trading... there are drivers on the near horizon which will power the next leg up...
The holiday respite is over... the new investment year has begun... may 2014 be a blessing to all CTIX longs...
that will be the other side of the THC debate... once the feds legalize it then it will come under the juridiction of the FDA with all the ramifications that includes... nicotine is their fascination today... it will be THC tomorrow... law of unintended consequences always in play and always keeping things stirred up real nice... regardless... i don't see the human race suddenly turning its collective back on addictive substances...
Have received word on other sites that the poster known as Biomanbaba passed away on 1/4/14 from a heart attack. His friends knew him by his real name Henry Finch. He was a presence on Ihub boards and impacted many of us. His posts brought me to SBFM back in 2012. He was a colorful poster. I did not know him well, but those who did are struggling. May the Bioman rest in peace and his family and friends be comforted by their memories of him and his legacy. I was looking forward to his return to SBFM once the IND was filed and the stock was about to run... he would have been here... no doubt... pounding the table... and relentlessly urging us on... his energy and passion will be missed.
Stunned... whatever one thought of him... he had a presence... I found Ctix through his posts... and learned a lot from him... my sympathies to those who knew him in a personal way... may he rest in peace...
a walk down memory lane... and a fine example of a pps pop fueled by irrational exuberance... yes if you are ever lucky enough to ride a wave like that... sell, sell, sell...
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.11/newsugar_pr.html
lol... we see things differently... that's what makes a market... good luck to you... better luck to me...
yes... but not as hard as mining coal...
an effective treatment for ischemic stroke would be absolutely huge... especially one that extended the period in which onset of treatment could occur (from hours to a day or two)... the stroke trial is the one that i am most interested in... spontaneous resolution of symptoms do occur on occassion and that is the reason anectdotal evidence has limited value... nonetheless the video seems compelling... can't wait to see the data this summer...
in the meantime we have the ulcerative colitis data to look forward to in spring...
well stated... and succinct...
if you wish to see what other investors are playing with... click on their monikers and nose around in their profiles... on ihub that is public information... i use it all the time... i like to see which stocks the posters i respect are playing with... it is how i found xxii... i snooped around in Pete's profile...
"Might we all benefit if we set the bar conservatively (doubling?) and then later must raise estimates."
LOL... if anticipating a double is the conservative estimate... then this will be a good year indeed... we retail investors do get a bit exuberant in our expectations at time... extending timeframes and lowering pps estimates... is generally a good way to go... and frequently turns out to be much more realistic... while also reducing angst... sound advice... imo...
fair enough... my emotions carry me away sometimes too with my favorite investments... what you describe is anecdotal... nothing wrong with anecdotal information... just don't base your investment decisions on it... the rules of the game change significantly once the conversation shifts to meaningful clinical data with measurable statistical significance... i am bullish on ATHX... and hoping for positive data... but i also am prepared for the possibility of data that is not clinically significant... if that happens the market will almost certainly react harshly to that news (even overreact) and the pps would take a major hit... at least in the near term... ATHX is potentially big reward, but also big risk...
Finding HTFBS community has allowed me to really clean up my speculative portfolio... i was able to sell underperforming stocks that now look in restrospect as rather random... as though i was in the ocean hoping to catch a wave... but mostly just bobbing up and down... Van's insights have really helped me become a better wave spotter... and has given direction and purpose to my investments in this space... those underperforming assets were given a place to go... and XXII got about 45% of those assets... spiffy 30% and disney 25%...
i've made my fair share of investing mistakes... but continue to learn as i go... HTFBS community has been a real gift...
if all you do is look at charts without judgment or critical thinking or evaluation of fundamentals... then you will find yourself investing at the top of a wave... for that is the chart you will value... one that is already rapidly climbing...
the real key... imo... is to catch the wave just as it begins to develop... much like a surfer... and ride it as far as you can... the very chart you show suggests that a new wave may be just beginning... who will catch it???
it would be a mistake to sell either at this point in time with all the catalysts for each... having two strong bulls pulling my investment wagon was pretty darn exciting in December... i can tell you that... looking for more of the same in 2014... if spiffy and disney join in it is going to be one heck of a ride... i might need better shock absorbers for my wagon...
Pete... well done... I am invested in the big three also... along with our biopharm play... very exciting four cornerstones of my speculative portfolio...
I have been overweight the biopharm for awhile now and continue to be so... but XXII is rapidly becoming an equally overweight portion of my portfolio... like you I am most comfortable with this one... of the big 3... probably just because I understand the business fundamentals of it the best... love your outstanding summation of XXII... thank you for taking the time to share...
Regarding the two cloud plays... I am very excited to have these in my portfolio... and at position levels that are significant for me... there is no way I would have found these on my own... or even understood them enough to invest if I had stumbled onto them... Van's excellent work has opened up this wave for me to ride as an investor... so its all good... but like you I am most comfortable with XXII...
Excellent post... stellar summation...
"CTIX is still priced with very little success built in to its products. If any of the major compounds are successful, the share price will likely be many multiples higher. If there is a major success and several moderate ones, higher yet. No first in class, but several moderate successes, multiples higher. Several successes, much, much higher. I really don't expect all products failing to meet expectations; in which case, $2/share might be justifiable. One can only invest based on probabilities, very few certainties. The probability CTIX goes way up this year, high."
thanks for your take...
Appreciate the info very much... however, we cannot "know" the outcome will be good... i am hopeful as you are... but there are no guarantees with clinical trials... i like to keep it real as i have been in stocks where posters just "knew" the outcome would be positive and in fact it was not... so yes... very hopeful... but there is also risk involved and we cannot "know" the outcome until we know the outcome... that's why the trials are conducted...
"We are like a bank with infinite gold"
wouldn't that be nice...
making investment decisions based on the "known unknowable" would be a pretty cool super power... unfortunately, being a mere mortal, i will have to hang with the rather mundane process of basing investment decisions on that which is simply known...
i like isco a lot... it has a very well known catalyst due within the first half of 2014... a growing revenue stream from two revenue sources which is practically unheard of in the developmental biotech space... a recent financing based on favorable terms... a low current valuation making for an attractive entry point... much to like here that is known... so let's not over sell this thing... biotechs carry risk... and potential reward... this is a good play... imo... but weigh the risk too and invest what you can afford to risk and what your risk tolerance will allow... psssstttt.... there is no vault of infinite gold... otherwise the company would never have to do another financing...
enjoyed the latest newsletter very much... appreciated the history of this venture and the openness regarding how various stocks have been handled over the last year... so pleased to see this is an open process... the market is dynamic... as the investment thesis shifts it is vital to be able to shift asset allocation... falling in love with a stock and refusing to change course as needed is a recipe for disaster in a dynamic market place...
...also loved your point regarding nanocaps... their potential reward and risk... and the advantage the small player has regarding the ability to shift assets in thinly traded stocks... your service allows us to play in this dangerous space with more information and knowledge... and thus a at least a modicum of increased safety...
finally... appreciated your valuation process... i will add "disruption ratio" to my tool box for valuation exercises... appreciate all you do for us smaller players and for providing a very affordable and excellent service...
appreciate the info... the angst around DSNY is pps driven which while psychologically understandable, does not make for sound investment decisions... material information will become available during the first half of 2014... and the picture will become much clearer... at somewhere between 4 and 40 mil... mpe pretty well has our basis covered... so this play is greatly de-risked... making the risk-reward quite favorable... imo...
so late march for the ulcerative colitis data with pfizer... any thoughts on when the stroke data will likely be available... i've read Q2... ???
gotta love 'dem bears... stock recovered nicely throughout the day after a breathless run-up day prior... and in spite of the dramatic morning dip... i don't think this one is anywhere near done climbing yet...