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I just took a look at the option situation for GALT. The last day of trading for April options is the 18th. There are about 5600 April call options out for GALT representing 560,000 shares. I have noticed that on that last day of options trading, more often than not a company's stock price will end up near the price that makes the "market makers" the most money.
In this case, the stock would have to close at about $10 on April the 18th. I think that is highly unlikely, but it would be in the interest of the market makers to keep GALT's price under control. Every dollar that the closing price on the 18th is above the $20 strike price is over a $500,000 loss to the April option writers.
Through October, there are call options out representing almost 900,000 shares. Right now, the highest strike price each month is $30.
I'm not trying to be negative, just keeping it real. I am a believer that we have something special here. But there are forces out there that will be pulling against us. Hopefully, the news is so good that it creates a high demand for our stock that overcomes the ability of the market makers to manipulate the price to any significant degree.
I have been told, although I have no personal knowledge that it's true, that market makers will sometimes create the kind of price action we saw yesterday to give them an opportunity to hedge their positions against potential good news. And in fact I have, multiple times, witnessed the kind of price action we saw yesterday occur in advance of expected news for many stocks.
GLTAL
Thank you buccaneer1961! I always appreciate your posts and the one to which I'm replying has some particularly good information. Thanks again.
@mx - I did not see anything in the PR to indicate that the announcement would be "before the open". Have you seen that info somewhere else?
The conference call on April 1st is scheduled for 8:30 am and so it would be "before the open" on Tuesday. I'm just trying to clarify to make sure that I (nor anyone else here) is expecting something that then does not happen.
mx10001 said...
Thanks, 123tom for your charting. It definately helped me, as I established a nice position with 5 buys as it dropped from 13.50 to 12.70 yesterday.
And, now the news this morning. I agree with biotechs2010's assessment of big gains for the next 4 days, and yes, the announcement before the open on Monday certainly means positive results. IMO, new highs comimg, and very soon.
Well it looks like the "big boys" were "scaring up shares" yesterday. They did not get any of mine. And per today's PR, we know that we will get the "news" on Monday. Given the way this is being handled by management, I would be very surprised if the news is anything other than very good.
Back in January, ICPT got "good" news that I did not think was that great and it shot their share price through the roof. Their market cap went as high as ~$9.6 billion and was still ~$8.5 billion (~$440 per share) at last Wednesday's close. But over the last 4 days ICPT has been taking a hit, down to a ~$6.7 billion market cap (~$350 per share) today. I have to think that the market is seeing GALT's up-coming announcement as a threat to ICPT. Their product is a daily pill that you would take the rest of your life to keep the fibrosis from getting worse. With GALT's product it is anticipated that a few treatments will actually reverse your fibrosis. Which would you prefer?
If you add the ~$1.8 billion of market cap that ICPT has lost over the last 4 days to GALT's current market cap of ~$368 million you get a total of ~$2.25 billion. That equates to a per share price for GALT of over $100. (I know that will probably not happen, but we're just spitballing here.)
Next week will be interesting. Sometimes Mr. Market over reacts to news and sometimes Mr. Market doesn't seem to react at all. But I am looking forward to next Monday and Tuesday.
GLTAL
thefamilyman said yesterday...
It looks like either bad news has leaked or the big boys are scaring up shares out of weak hands in anticipation of good news.
We should know by Friday of next week...
I am not seeing this news item on Scottrade or the company website. Can you provide a link? TIA
Bradfor123 said...
"Will this lower share price this news ?
•Galectin Therapeutics (GALT) files an S-3 for a $100M secondary offering of common stock plus 500,000 shares of common registered for sale by Richard Uihlein"
It looks like either bad news has leaked or the big boys are scaring up shares out of weak hands in anticipation of good news.
We should know by Friday of next week...
Your autocorrect is changing efficacy to efficiency. Other than that I agree with your comments.
DirectionalDriller said...
ICPT shows us that the market considers NASH treatment to be worth 8 to 9 billion market cap currently. That would put GALT's pps 400 to 500 range if successful in gaining efficiency.
The bold below is the most important take-away I got from today's event.
Buddhahead said...
After thinking a bit about what Dr Mullan and Dr Chapman said in their webcast, it seems to me they have an enviable problem to solve. Most pharmaceutical companies focus on a specific drug for a specific disease. STSI has the problem of, which disease among the many potential diseases Anatabine solves, gives the biggest bang for the bucks with the least medical and financial risks. He already knows the tolerability and 'side-effect' issue are a slam dunk so he can focus the R&D on efficacy. Since the issue of teaming and/or licensing was not really discussed, this is the billion dollar question whose answer we should anticipate in the near future. I don't think it is lost on Dr Mullan that teaming with a strong financial partner is in the best interest of STSI, especially wherein he can team with an 'expert' company or license in that disease. He knows an agreement is in short order for him to proceed and be successful next year. Right off the bat, it would seem he would entertain teaming or licensing for Alzheimers, Thyroiditis, Multiple Sclerosis, Arthritis, and one or more Cancers or other Autoimmune disorders. Maybe a combination of both worlds. What do you think?
Patrick said as much to me about the restrictions he is under with Mauldin's group. And Jonnie was there. I got to talk with him before the meeting. Obviously he still believes in the science. He sat on the left about halfway back near the wall next to Bob Roskamp.
trmey said...
I thought the investor & analyst meeting went well, Dr Mullan's presentation of the anatabine science was good, showing positive chart data and a mouse model demonstration. It was more of what most of us have already seen. Dr Crawford went through the IND process and then touched on the time line for clinical trials. Once we get into the Phase 2 trials we can look at partnering up with big pharma, maybe as early as mid 2015 if all goes well with the FDA. There was a short question and answer session, those that had questions also had good personal testimony's using Anabolic. I spoke with Patrick Cox for a brief moment as I was leaving for home. He said the financial analyst at Mauldin's don't get how big anatabine is, but John Mauldin gets it. Patrick said, he is giving a talk only on anatabine next week, somewhere out west, you'll have to call Mauldin to get the location.
I've never meet Johnnie, I've only seen his picture so I can't be sure but I believe he was there, he and Talhia Tuck were together and busy.
I'm here. Anyone else?
HELLO GROWING REVENUES!!!
See you tomorrow...
Anyone going to the meeting tomorrow?
ISCO REVENUES ALMOST $7 MILLION PER YEAR!!!
FAST GROWING REVENUES SATISFY ALL CASHFLOW NEEDS!!!
REVENUES ARE GROWING!!!!
When did he give that presentation?
Agreed...
For diseases like the flu you may be correct. However, diseases like HIV and Herpes can remain dormant inside your cells for extended periods of time until something triggers their re-activation.
A single treatment of HIVCide could be a "functional" cure for these diseases for a period of time. But then later some of those dormant viruses would reactivate to start the disease process all over again. In those instances it MAY be advantageous to continue treatment over a longer timeframe to keep the disease from coming back.
However, I believe that even if you could only use the HIVCide periodically, it will still be a better option than the current treatment.
another voice said...
Robi, I disagree on the long term use of an oral Flucide. I can not foresee any need to take ORALFLUCIDE on a regular sustained basis.
What uses could you think of that might cause a regular use? With it's quick response to a cide the need to use it prophetically seems unnecessary.
IMHO
Unfortunately, some problems with that might be:
1) Insurance companies don't usually pay for drugs that are not FDA approved. If CTIX tries to fill the demand without being paid, I could see that becoming a substantial expense.
2) I would think that there might also be some liability issues.
cabel said...
If we see that Kevetrin works in Phase I,.. I can easily see that type of thing happening.
If I had cancer I would be scouring the internet for possible cures.
If it works, terminl cancer patients will find it and will insist that it be made available to them.
ISCO's NEXT FILING WILL SHOW MASSIVE STABILITY!!!!
ISCO ANNUAL REPORT TO SHOW GROWING REVENUES!!!!
@ Modrica - I agree
Mod said...
ISCO has almost 6 millions $ revenues and is growing every quarter
at .22 ISCO is trading based on fundamentals
once ISCO starts trading on potential , and potential is big , Parkinson's disease , we will be seeing way way higher pps
look at the geron , they had 180 K last q revenue , yea thats right 180 K , and theyre valued 20-25 times more than ISCO
its just doesnt make any sense
it all will/should correct itself very soon
imo
gl
mod
ISCO HAS GROWING REVENUES!!!!! Annual report out soon....
GROSS PROFITS GREW 300%!!! WOW!!!
GROWING REVENUES!!!! REPORT OUT SOON!!!!
ISCO MANAGEMENT IS THE BEST!!!!!!!!!!!
ISCO MANAGEMENT IS GROWING REVENUES!!!!
CONFIRMED!!!!!!! ISCO HAS GROWING REVENUES!!!!!!!
ISCO HAS GROWING REVENUES!!!!!!! EXCELLENT!!!!!!!
OVER 4.5% GAIN!!!! THIS WEEK!!!!!!!! AND GROWING REVENUES!!!!!!!
OVER 4.5% GAIN!!!! THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!
ISCO IN THE GREEN !!!!! TODAY!!!!!!
4.86% GAIN!!!! THIS WEEK!!!!!!!!
4.17% GAIN!!!! TODAY!!!!!!!!
9.09% GAIN!!!! TODAY!!!!!!!!
9.09% GAIN!!!! TODAY!!!!!!!!
Absolutely not. I don't know much about TA, yet... But I do enjoy and learn from your posts. And on this stock in particular, you have been impressively accurate several times.
123tom said...
I can keep all this to myself instead of sharing it. if that's what folks prefer.
Your question was not addressed to me, but perhaps this will answer your question. I am doing this from memory and I am over 50 so TIFWIW.
Due to the extensive work already done with the molecule for the cancer trials, they know the safety profile. Therefore, they were able to start these Phase 1 trials at a high enough dosage so that signs of efficacy are a possibility. So I have been thinking of the dosage in this Cohort 1 trial as the "minimum" for potential efficacy.
If there are no signs of efficacy in Cohort 1, the SP will probably decline. But I see NO way that the efficacy results of Cohort 1 could be interpreted to mean that the drug "will not work in humans". There are still going to be Cohort 2 and Cohort 3 at higher doses regardless of the outcome of Cohort 1. Obviously in most cases, a higher dose of a drug is more likely to be efficacious than a lower dose.
One reason that I am optimistic is that the CEO seems very confident. The first patients were treated last July and the first results were probably seen in October. Since the CEO has been very outspoken recently in promoting the upcoming data release, he must be confident of the results.
bradfor123 said...
Do you believe that the product will reverse advance fibrosis and cirrhosis or is this just over hype which could drop like a stone in roughly a month when some cohort 1 information is released if proven not to work in a human trial?
Exercising those options will put an additional $10 million in the company coffers in the next 4 months...