Hweb, I think some of the reason behind the stock's decline is the potential selling pressure anticipated by the CEO's 10b5-1 plan:

Press Release Source: KSW, Inc.

KSW, Inc.'S CEO Adopts Personal Trading Plan
Tuesday March 14, 9:39 am ET

LONG ISLAND CITY, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 14, 2006--KSW, Inc. (Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board: KSWW.OB) today announces that Floyd Warkol, its Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, has adopted a personal trading plan, in compliance with Securities Exchange Act Rule 10b5-1, to exercise stock options granted in 1995 under the Company's Employee Stock Option Plan, and to sell a limited number of shares over a period of two years. Under the terms of the plan, Mr. Warkol may exercise up to 200,000 options, and sell up to a total of 400,000 shares.

ADVERTISEMENT
Mr. Warkol, who has been Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer since 1995, has never personally sold any shares of the Company's stock. A Charitable Foundation that he controls has donated and sold a total of 20,000 shares for charitable purposes.

Mr. Warkol commented that "This program allows me to liquefy a modest portion of my KSW stock for diversification and estate planning purposes. I will continue to hold a substantial position in KSW as I believe strongly in our business and prospects for continued growth and profitability. I look forward to being part of the management that delivers those results."

This selling program, which will be managed by Morgan Stanley, is based on the Securities and Exchange Commission's Rule 10b5-1, which protects company executives from possible claims of insider trading by permitting executives to buy or sell a predetermined amount of their company's shares, as set forth in a planned acquisition or divestiture program which was adopted when the insider did not possess any material non-public information.

About KSW

KSW, Inc. through its totally-owned mechanical subsidiary KSW Mechanical Services, Inc. furnishes and installs heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and process piping systems for institutional, industrial, commercial, high-rise residential and public works projects. KSW Mechanical Services, Inc. also acts as trade manager on larger construction projects, such as Weill Cornell Medical Center.

Safe Harbor Statement

Certain statements contained in this press release are not historical facts, and constitute "forward-looking statements" (as such term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995). These forward looking statements generally can be identified as statements that include phrases such as "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "intend," "plan," "foresee," "likely," "should," "will" or other similar words or phrases. Such forward-looking statements concerning management's expectations and other similar matters involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements discussed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectation of the Company include, among others, the outcome of the year end audit and further internal review of the Company's historical financial statements. All written and oral forward-looking statements of or attributable to the Company or persons acting on behalf of the Company are qualified in their entirety by such factors. The Company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to provide any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement to reflect any change in the Company's expectations or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which the forward-looking statement is based.


Contact:

KSW, Inc.
James Oliviero, 718-340-1409
joliviero@ksww.com

Source: KSW, Inc.

-------------------------

BTW - note the name at the bottom of the PR, James Oliviero. He sold all (20,000) of his shares during Mar 6-9....

Think he didn't know this was coming??

Things that make you go hmmmmmmmm.....

Death, all of those outcomes are possible. It just strikes me that when companies start putting specific language in a Q that discusses the burden of SOX compliance, they are looking to delist FIRST, and then maybe get taken private. Why else mention it?

JMIH stock is heavily controlled by Herndon:

ITEM 11. SECURITY OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND MANAGEMENT

The following table sets forth certain information regarding the
Company's common stock beneficially owned on September 30, 2005 by: (1) each
shareholder known by the Company to be the beneficial owner of five (5%) percent
or more of the Company's outstanding common stock, (2) each of the Company's
executive officers and directors, and (3) all executive officers and directors
as a group. Unless otherwise disclosed, the address for the shareholders below
is 3391 S.W. 14th Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33316. On September 30, 2005,
there were approximately 16,305,525 shares of common stock outstanding.


Number of Beneficially Percentage of Outstanding
Name and Address Owned Shares Shares Beneficially Owned
---------------- ------------ -------------------------

Carl Herndon 6,884,126(1) 42.0%

Lawrence Tierney 1,336,001(2) 8.3%

Carl Herndon, Jr. 883,750(3) 5.5%

Kerry Clemmons 275,000(4) 1.8%

Officers and Directors as a Group 9,378,877(1)(2)(3)(4) 53.4%
(4 persons)

----------------
(1) Includes (i) 600,000 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the exercise of
options at exercise prices between $.50 and $1.00 per share expiring July 27,
2006 and (ii) 250,000 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the exercise of
options at an exercise price of $.15 per share expiring May 6, 2009.

(2) Includes (i) 250,000 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the exercise of
options at exercise prices between $.50 and $1.00 per share expiring July 27,
2006 and (ii) 200,000 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the exercise of
options at an exercise price of $.14 per share expiring May 6, 2009.

(3) Includes (i) 250,000 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the exercise of
options at exercise prices between $.50 and $1.00 per share expiring July 27,
2006, (ii) 100,000 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the exercise of options
at an exercise price of $.14 per share expiring May 6, 2009, and 200,000 shares
of Common Stock issuable upon exercise of options at an exercise price of $.30
per share expiring January 13, 2010.

(4) Includes 150,000 shares of Common Stock issuable upon the exercise of
options at an exercise price of $.14 per share expiring May 6, 2009.

-----------------
These numbers don't include the recent share issuances. Plus, Herndon owns most of the production facilities that the company leases.

Why are they public at this time? They say they don't need to tap the equities market to raise the cash to operate their business..... JMIH already uses credit lines (guaranteed by Herndon) to finance their growth. If they were private, he'd be doing this anyway, so there seems to me to be no benefit to staying public for Herndon.

IMHO, I can see them deciding to delist and go on the pink sheets within the next year. I would seriously consider it if I were Herndon and the majority shareholder......

JMIH.ob. Just some things to be aware of that I found buried in the 10Q:

Two separate instances of huge stock payouts given to the CEO and CFO:

On December 6, 2005, the Board of Directors approved the issuance of
1,405,547 shares of the Company's common stock, in lieu of cash, to its chief
executive officer and chief financial officer and six other management employees
as payment of bonuses earned during fiscal year ended July 30, 2005 at $.11 per
share, which includes a 33% discount to market reflecting the three year
restriction placed on the common stock on December 6, 2005. Such bonuses had
been accrued at July 30, 2005. The bonus payable to the company's chief
executive officer was $41,350 and the bonus payable to the company's chief
financial officer was $20,675. The transaction was exempt from registration
under Section 4(2) of the Securities Act. The shares were issued with legends
restricting their transferability absent registration or applicable exemption.
The employees received information regarding the Company or had knowledge of the
Company's operations and business. Furthermore, the employees had the
opportunity to ask questions about the Company.

---------------------

New shares continued to be issued:
In March 2006 the Company negotiated an increase of its line of credit
with a financial institution, from $500,000 to $750,000, and extended the due
date of the line of credit to February 28, 2007. On March 14, 2006 the Company
issued its chief executive officer 562,219 shares of its common stock in
consideration for providing personal guarantees for the Company, which were
required to secure the line of credit. On March 14, 2006 the Company also issued
an aggregate of 360,049 shares of its common stock to its chief executive
officer and chief financial officer in consideration for extending the due date
on their note payable to February 28, 2008. The shares issued for the guarantees
and extension were issued with legends restricting their transferability absent
registration or applicable exemption.

These shares may be locked up, but they will still impact fds count.

Two, I found this statement which always makes me nervous about companies who are thinking about going private:

"As disclosed above, the effects of higher fuel prices, higher interest
rates, increases in cost of other raw material and lower consumer confidence may
contribute to a slow down of the economy which may temper our sales growth.
While we have had limited success in controlling our operational expenses and we
continue to examine ways to reduce costs on a going-forward basis, as a public
company we are constantly faced with increasing costs and expenses to comply
with SEC reporting obligations. We will be required in fiscal 2007 to comply
with the new annual internal control certification pursuant to Section 404 of
the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the related SEC rules. We expect that these
and other compliance costs of a public company will increase significantly. In
addition, our stock has historically been, and continues to be, relatively
thinly traded, providing little liquidity for our shareholders. As a result of
the foregoing, we have, from time-to-time considered, and expect from
time-to-time to continue to consider strategic alternatives to maximize
shareholder value.

----------------

Sounds like a substantial risk of going private.

R59, LPG is a class of gasses comprised of Propane, Butane, and Ethane. LPG is a byproduct of NG production (60%) and Crude Oil production (40%). 10% of NG is refined into LPG.

To the extent that LNG competes with LPG, I guess that pricing may become an issue. However, I would point out that LPG is a much easier gas to ship and requires minimal land infrastructure (i.e. no large liquefaction or regasification plants). That's one of the reasons that NG is primarily transported via pipeline and not by tanker. Contrast that with crude oil, which is shipped everywhere in addition to being piped in. The end result is that LNG is just not a reasonable substitute for many countries that use LPG. Without the infrastructure in place, LNG can't begin to compete.

LPG uses:
LPG products have a variety of both industrial and other uses, including transportation, fertilizer production, the manufacture of plastics, space heating, cooking, water heating and process heating. We serve industrial companies, as well as national and independent energy companies and energy traders.
-from GASS website
http://www.stealthgas.com/corporate-details/company-profile.html

To answer your question about European NG prices, gas prices have recently surged in the UK:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4804504.stm
Not sure about the rest of Europe.

R59, if you're interested in other shippers that have more stable charter rates and end markets than the drybulk market, check out the LPG group. I own both MCX and GASS, and each has different strengths from a VMC perspective.

GASS did an IPO in the last 6 mos, and they are continuing to build their fleet while paying a nice dividend around 5.75%. FD eps are expected to grow nicely this year, and the bulk of that is already committed in 1 yr timecharters. If rates can continue to rise on the strength of demand from Europe, Japan, and the Far East GASS should continue to show growth in eps in FY07 as well. Trades at 6.8x my guess for earnings in FY06.

MCX pays out a lower dividend, around 2%, but they should have stronger growth in eps over the next year as they are turning over 5-6 tankers that are coming off long-term charters that had substantially lower rates. Management has said that these recent re-charters were done at a 45% increase in rates:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060227/20060227005471.html?.v=1

MCX has also been adding to its fleet as well, buying two ships in the past month. MCX trades at around 6.4x my estimate for FY06.

GASS offers more transparency as they have excellent data on their charter rates on their website. MCX is a bit more close-mouthed about their deals.

I think both stocks could be worth 16+ in the coming 12 mos, assuming the global economy (esp Japan, Europe, and China) doesn't go into the tank.

Knowledge, did you specify AON (All or None) on those buy orders? If yes, those sometimes don't show up.....

Niles, what details (if any) has FTK revealed about the potential acquiree? I doubt that TTES would sell out for such a low figure (150MM). That's what its current market cap is right now, with the wind at their back for 2006.

Niles, I gave a "quick and dirty" eps estimate for FY06 based upon Q4 numbers, but i think it might be best to use Q3 and Q4 together. Some revs were pushed into Q4 because of the hurricanes in Q3, so avg the two is probably better than using Q4 only. I would also add back the 600k expense they had to take during Q4 from the cancelled offering.

So, the avg revs in Q3/4 would be 29.2MM and avg eps: 0.25. Annualizing this would give 1.00 for FY06, but with sequential increases in backlog, I feel that would be very conservative.

TTES has easy y/y comps for at least the next two quarters, but this would have to be balanced against the sudden market push against owning O&G service companies. TTES specializes in pressure and flow controls for drilling operations:
http://www.t3es.com/corporate/corporate.php

I find it interesting that FTK can garner a 27x TTM pe, while TTES is only getting 18x TTM. FTK also has a lower tax rate, 20% through its first 9mos. That makes the apples-to-apples PE look even worse for FTK. If we were to apply the same 35% rate to FTK's numbers, then it would have only reported 0.76 in fd eps for FY06 (assuming a similar 20% rate in Q4). That would imply that FTK's pe is closer to 34x right now.....which seems pretty high to me, unless the forward guidance for FTK is spectacular.

Hweb, TSTA just printed a sale of 1MM shares @ 1.10. Wonder who bought all those shares from the insiders? (the form 4s were filed yesterday.)

It would be nice if the company could come out and say that the insider selling is done for now, just to end the speculation. Hard to believe that they would try to sell more after this big lump sale! This has been depressing the stock price for weeks. One of the hazards of small stocks and large insider ownerships.

Niles, how would you compare TTES to FTK? I know you've been a long-time follower of FTK and the oil/ng services segment. Was wondering if you felt that TTES could get a similar multiple and what kind of FY06 eps TTES could achieve based upon current backlog numbers. Thanks.

BTW - I own a small position in TTES and also hold it in my PSL2 group.

Hweb, TSTA selling came from insiders.....
multiple Form 4s just filed.

Big sales too. One chunk came from the Spink family trust; looks like 750k @ 1.10. All told, looks like 1MM shares changed hands.

Must have been some institution picking those up. Could be a buying opportunity if we believe that this is simply estate planning.

TTES reports huge backlog increase, very strong quarterly numbers after the bell yesterday:
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/060307/95360.html

Gus D. Halas, T-3 Energy's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer commented ``T-3 had an excellent year in 2005. We are at an inflection point for our products and services that will continue to carry into 2006 with full momentum. Our T-3 brand identity has now been accepted by substantially all the major drilling contractors for use throughout the world. For example, BOP and BOP control systems shipments have increased 500% and 180%, respectively, in 2005 as compared to 2004. Over the next twelve months we plan to significantly expand our manufacturing capacity through facility expansions and operational improvements, through several selected geographical expansions and the continued introduction of new products being developed by our engineering group, which has more than doubled in size since mid 2005. This should allow us to continue and improve our already rapid response time to customer demands and enable us to build market share worldwide.''

We believe that the outlook for the Company through 2006 is favorable, as the overall activity in the markets we operate in is expected to remain high and our backlog, especially for our pressure and flow control business, began to increase significantly in the third quarter of 2005. Backlog has increased $26.7 million, or 785%, from December 31, 2004 backlog of $3.4 million to December 31, 2005 backlog of $30.1 million. We expect that the high levels of drilling activity in North America and the increased demand for our products to be shipped internationally will continue to drive significant levels of backlog. We believe that a significant amount of future activity will be related to new products and that substantially all of the orders and commitments included in backlog at December 31, 2005, will be completed within the next twelve months.

Looking into 2006 and beyond, we expect average rig activity to remain at high levels, and we expect our new products sales to increase compared to 2005 levels due to our product acceptance by the industry, new product introductions, significant capital and geographical expansions, and continued rapid response time to our customers. The Company's actual results will also be dependent on the pace and level of activities in the markets served by the Company.

-----------------

They are in the O&G service sector, which is distinctly out of favor at present. Annualizing results (seasonality was not mentioned as a factor in its S-1, other than severe weather) would give eps around 1.16. Stock is trading around 14.30 and is very thin. Has some easy comps coming up and could trade up to the 17s (IMHO) in a decent market.

Dickmilde, DAAT is still flying under the radar. Unfortunately, the company is hindered by the fact that its business is very seasonal and retail in nature. It doesn't get a decent PE as a result, IMHO.

The sales growth rates have fallen, but are still very strong, at 40%+. The company seems able to find new sales channels for its existing products, and has been able to come up with new items that sell well. Not a very sexy company, but one that has delivered decent numbers for a number of quarters in a row. Once Q4 numbers go in the books, it should have a trailing PE (now fully taxed at 39%) of 10-12x earnings. Contrast that to where it traded early last year, when it was getting 20x TTM earnings (taxed at 28%). If it could get that same valuation, then it might trade as high as 4 - 4.20. I'd be happy with the 3 - 3.50 range.

cl001, are you sure that the hedging losses in EZM's Q4 are one-time in nature? I've read through the annual report, but I can't figure out if the "realized losses on derivative instruments" will be ongoing or not....

If you fully understand the accounting, I would appreciate your assistance on de-mystifying the numbers. Thks.

EZM...why not post the full financials with the PR? Especially when you say:

"The Company's unaudited consolidated financial statements, related notes, and the Company's management discussion and analysis for the three months and year ended December 31, 2005 are available on the Company's website at www.eurozinc.com. "

Just checked, and they aren't there. Not on Sedar either.

You would think that companies would be more mindful of investors and expectations. Q4 est was for 0.10 and they posted 0.05. No mention of special charges or higher tax rates, although OCF/share was much higher at 0.09 US. This is a situation that cries out for better disclosure, but it looks like we'll have to wait for the CC for details. Perhaps they'll get around to posting their unaudited numbers by then??

Copper/zinc forecast from Merrill....prices raised based upon increased demand from China, Japan, and Europe

Copper, Zinc, Coal Prices Forecasts Raised by Merrill (Update1)

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Copper, zinc and thermal coal price forecasts were increased by Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, because of increasing demand and investment funds driving prices higher.

Merrill raised its price forecasts for four base metals, including aluminum and nickel, and thermal coal by between 5 percent and 43 percent, analyst Vicky Binns said in a note today. It made its last price revision in December.

Copper, zinc and other metals rose to records this year, bolstered by economic growth in China that fueled demand for autos, homes and appliances. As much as $200 billion of fund money is invested in commodities, with $30 billion in base metals, Citigroup Inc. said in a Jan. 25 report.

``We, like everyone else in the market, have been caught out by the effect of money flowing into the commodity markets and therefore need to upgrade price forecasts,'' said Sydney- based Binns. Investment demand is being backed by rising consumption from developing countries like China, and developed economies in Europe and Japan, she said.

The price of copper, used in pipes and wires, may average $2 a pound in 2006, 21 percent higher than a previous forecast, Merrill said. The metal has averaged $4,856.60 a ton, or $2.20 a pound, this year on the London Metal Exchange.

``Demand has surprised on the upside in key Chinese and Indian markets,'' said Binns. ``This has combined with supply bottleneck at the smelters to switch our small surpluses in 2006 into small deficits.''

Zinc, Thermal Coal

Zinc, used to protect steel from corrosion, may average $1 a pound, 43 percent more than a previous forecast, Merrill said. That compares with the average price of $2154.2 a ton, or 97.7 cents a pound, this year.

The securities firm also raised its forecast for aluminum, used in cars and planes, by 5 percent to $1.05 a pound for 2006. Aluminum has averaged $2,417.50 a ton, or $1.1 a pound this year.

Merrill Lynch also raised its forecasts for annual thermal coal prices to $48 a ton, from $43 a ton, due to rising rates on the spot market. Thermal coal is used to generate electricity.

``We believe the risks are for higher prices, with coal seen as the preferred source of power in Asia and Europe and with cement production picking up in Japan,'' Binns said. ``Supply continues to experience delays, higher costs and unavailability of truck tyres.''

Zinifex Ltd. and Oxiana Ltd. are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of higher prices, Merrill said.

The brokerage raised its earnings forecast for Zinifex, the world's second-largest zinc producer, for fiscal 2006 by 50 percent to A$743 million ($552 million).

Oxiana, an Australian copper producer, will likely post 2006 profit of A$298 million, 55 percent higher than earlier predicted, Merrill said.

Merrill Lynch also revised its profit estimates for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group, the world's largest and third- largest mining companies. It raised its fiscal 2006 profit forecasts for BHP by 7 percent to $9.9 billion, and for Rio by 8 percent to $6.6 billion.

Probably was a record for that quarter.....

Researcher, while NOLs may shield DFZ from the cash payment of taxes for many years to come, its the "valuation allowance" that allows the company to avoid the recognition of statutory tax rates on its income statement.

If the company and its accountants are in agreement that there is a reasonable liklihood that the NOLs will be utilized due to a stronger outlook for earnings, then the company is required to bring the NOL "asset" on to the balance sheet and reduce it through the payment of taxes. This occurs well in advance of the full utilization of the NOL.

How long should DFZ remain profitable before this occurs? Two years in a row? Three years? less?

I tend to view this "valuation allowance" as an unsustainable benefit and reduce net earnings using a pf estimate for taxes. I guess I should be less conservative, because I've seen investors respond to the final untaxed number and ignore the fact that the quality of the earnings is very low.....which is the case with DFZ, imho.

If you find anything about the one-time charges, please pass it on. Also, I would be curious to know if management discussed any growth initiatives for next year on the call....thanks.

Skillz, here are my two cents on DFZ. The earnings are virtually untaxed; had they been assessed a rate of 35%, then eps would be closer to 0.52 on a trailing 12 mos basis. Y/Y rev was virtually unchanged, both in Q4 and in FY05. I think the stock is fairly valued at its current price, which is 12-13x an adjusted, fully taxed eps.

If they can demonstrate some sales growth, then I'd get a bit more excited...but its hard to see where that catalyst is coming from based upon the comments in the PR. Operational improvements were tremendous, but now they have tougher comps coming up in FY06. The company is also heading into their seasonally weaker first half.

ISSG.....check out the related party interactions (as listed in the last 10Q):

7. RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS

The Company leases its premises in Farmingdale, N.Y. from K&G Realty, a company owned by David Kassel and Harry Goodman who are two of the officers/shareholders of the Company. Rent expense for the three quarters ended September 30, 2005 and September 24, 2004 was $154,773 and $145,764, respectively. Rent expense for the quarters ended September 30, 2005 and September 24, 2004 was $51,591 and $48,588, respectively.

Sales to another company owned by Mr. Kassel, Mr. Goodman and Mr. Franzone who are three officer/shareholders of the Company during the three quarters ended September 30, 2005 and September 24, 2004 included $573,504 and $407,470, respectively. Gross profit on such sales was $55,577 and $46,421 respectively. Sales during the quarters ended September 30, 2005 and September 24, 2004 included $221,971 and $192,823, respectively. Gross profit on such sales was $23,968 and $15,223 for the quarters ended September 30, 2005 and September 24, 2004, respectively. Accounts receivable from the related company were $197,009 at September 30, 2005.

In 2004, the Company commenced the due diligence process in connection with preliminary discussions to acquire a knob, handle and hand wheel manufacturer, Ray Engineering Company Limited (“Rencol”), located in Bristol, United Kingdom. In January 2005, the Company concluded that it was not able to acquire Rencol due to limitations imposed by agreements with lenders, and lack of other adequate resources to complete the transaction. Upon the decision of the Company to terminate discussions to acquire Rencol, a group of investors expressed an interest in acquiring Rencol. These investors included, among others, Mr. Hale, Chairman, Acting Chief Financial Officer, and President of the Company, Mr. Kassel, Director and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Franzone, Director and President of EHC and Mark Mandel, an accounting consultant to the Company. The investors formed a company for the purposes of the transaction named Rencol Acquistions, LLC.

--------------

Firing Kassel must have been a huge step for the board to have taken, given how much he has been involved in other ventures and investments with current board members. Unwinding these relationships will be difficult and probably messy.

The timing of this action is also interesting, with a 10K report due to be filed that has been fully audited. Speculation would be that something may have come to light during the audit.

Kassel owns 4.3MM shares as of his last Form 4 filing.

I wonder if some of the weakness behind UNT is the fact that more than half of their operating profits are tied to oil/ng production....

The drill rigs appear to be going strong, but with NG prices off and oil flat that could be contributing to their low PE. They estimate increased production increases in fy06 of around 14%, but that could be negated by lower oil/ng prices.

I don't hold any position in UNT, but want to stimulate some conversation about it as I think it could be undervalued.

Ron, that was a great call on SYUT. It's had a great move after basing below 2; I only wish I hadn't been so cheap in trying to get some shares after it was brought up here.

I mean no one said that $1.20 in EZM was a magical level...

Sskillz1, I'll give you one guess as to where the recent placement of shares of EZM were priced at. ;>)

Harry, GREAT call.....you got the price range AND buyer right!

Researcher, ANII's numbers were ok, but notice that pretax margins were down vs last year: 12.1% v 14.1%. This hurt pretax income growth which was only up 9% y/y even though rev growth was up 27%.....not what I like to see. FD eps growth was up much more (+28.6%) because of the stock buyback which reduced fds by nearly 17% for the Q.

I think the stock may be undervalued at present, as one can easily make the case its worth 10x 0.36 (an annualized Q eps of 0.09), but I'd be cautious.

Is this incident a negative for DAAT.ob.?

Actually, shouldn't this Cheney incident spark a run on gun locks?.....<grin>

rruff, sooner or later, the contract timing issue will catch up to CXTI. My estimate is that both revs and earnings will be down both sequentially and y/y for Q4. Outlook for FY06 is flat at best vs a very strong FY05....I think that's why you'll see a trading range here for some time.

Still a decent long term story, but I'm concerned about the lack of ST catalysts.

Beigledog, this is a long time coming....

There are a couple of really dubious transactions in the company's past.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=8261174&txt2find=cesv

Stan, CXTI had a form 144 filed yesterday...for 360,000 shares.

Link:
https://www.vickers-stock.com/reports/free/tickerorcompanylookup.asp

Wilson Cheung....has been selling quite a few shares over the past few months.

AEY filed its 10Q tonight. Two pieces of info that I think are relevant:

1. Organic growth of sales was 15% y/y in Q1 after adjusting for the Jones Broadband acquisition.

2. Pretax margins dipped slightly in Q1: <18.6% v 19.1% y/y> primarily due to acquisition costs.

If this keeps up, they should earn around 0.59 ft, fd for FY06. Using a 15x multiple would give FV of 8.85. That's where the stock briefly crested before pulling back and then accelerating downward after the earnings report....(which wasn't THAT bad, IMHO.)

Stock held up very well today in a overall poor market, finishing up 4%. Perhaps we've gotten rid of most of the IBD buyers who are quick to sell when they've hit their 8% stop-loss.

The stock is trading around 6.61, trying to stabilize in the low 6s. TTM PE: 13x

I think we'll head back up into the 8s again at some point this quarter, as traders get ready for the expectation of a strong comp vs last year.

Thanks R59 for the Put explanation on EZM. It will probably expire worthless, and so the final cost to the company is only the price of the option. Do you know if that is expensed each quarter via mark-to-market accounting or only when it expires?

EZM offering....not new shares perhaps, but shares that were formerly locked up tightly and not available for easy resale. Extra supply hurts right at this moment, especially with commodity stocks under pressure as hedge funds rotate out.

Researcher, I don't understand fully how the interaction of these two hedging vehicles work.

From EZM's last Q:

The LME copper price at the beginning of the third quarter was $1.59 per pound and steadily increased to
$1.79 per pound at the end of the quarter and averaged $1.70 for the quarter. Although this movement
may not be indicative of future trends and volatility, the rise in copper price, coupled with a decline in the
Euro currency, has a positive impact on the financial performance of the Neves-Corvo mine. The
Company has taken steps to limit its exposure to the fluctuation in the copper price in 2006 through the
forward sale of 2,000 tonnes of copper per month for the year at an average price $3,475 per tonne or
$1.58 per pound. The Company has also purchased put options on an additional 2,000 tonnes of copper
per month at a strike price of $3,000 per tonne or $1.36 per pound with full participation if the copper price
is above the strike price. Combined, these forward sales and put options represent approximately 50% of
the expected 2006 copper production from the Neves-Corvo mine. The Company also plans to take steps
to mitigate its Euro/US dollar exchange risk in 2006 by buying sufficient Euro hedges to cover its Euro
based operating costs..

--------------------

If they buy a put option, isn't that profitable only if the price of copper falls below the strike? And if they've already locked in 2000 tonnes of copper at 1.58, then they don't see any profit above that 1.58.....

How do they have unlimited upside on any of these hedges? Thx.

R59, I think there are two factors weighing on EZM at present. They've hedged half of their 2006 copper production at 1.58 (much lower than current prices of 2.10 - 2.25) Second, there was an offering of shares to the public that has to be placed:

SELLING SHAREHOLDERS
As at January 27, 2006, RCF I and RCF II beneficially and of record owned 35,879,515 and 131,691,018 common
shares of the Company, respectively, representing 6.6% and 24.22%, respectively, of the issued and outstanding
common shares of the Company as of January 27, 2006. RCF I and RCF II have agreed to sell to the Underwriters
for resale to the public, pursuant to the terms of the Underwriting Agreement, 35,879,515 and 35,550,485 Shares,
respectively. Upon completion of the Offering, RCF I will not own any common shares of the Company and RCF II
will beneficially and of record own 96,140,533 common shares of the Company.
Resource Capital Fund III L.P. (“RCF III”), an affiliated entity of the Selling Shareholders, currently beneficially
and of record owns 3,500,000 common shares of the Company, representing 0.64% of the outstanding common
shares of the Company as at January 27, 2006. RCF III also holds 10,095,652 share purchase warrants of the
Company. Upon completion of the Offering, RCF II and RCF III will beneficially and as of record own collectively
99,640,533 common shares of the Company, representing 18.32% of the issued and outstanding common shares of
the Company as at January 27, 2006.

-----------------

There appear to be more cross-currents here than with TGB. Higher prices in the current quarter will help EZM, but not as much will drop to the bottom line as with TGB. TGB also sold tons of warrants in the <1.00 range....that took some time to eat through but is now behind the stock. I think TGB could earn anywhere from 0.23 - 0.29 in FY06 (FULLY TAXED at 35%, and assuming copper at 2.00/lb for the full year). If rates stay at 2.20 or above, my estimate range will look very conservative.

R59, its hard to say how much of FRD's sales go to the O/NG sector. Couldn't find any breakdown on their 10k other than that sales are roughly split 55/45 coil/tubular.

"Tubular Products. The Company sells its tubular products nationally to approximately 260 customers. The Company’s principal customers of these products are steel and pipe distributors, piling contractors and LSS. Sales of pipe to LSS accounted for approximately 16% of the Company’s total sales in fiscal 2005."


Probably some component of this group are energy companies, but why bother when there is better visibility/outlook in MVK and LSS?

BTW - LSS in FRD's relationship means Lone Star Steel Company and not Lone Star Tech (NYSE: LSS)

Researcher, I'd be careful about linking FRD to MVK. I did a quick check of the 10k to see who FRD sells to:

"The Company sells its coil products and processing services directly through the Company’s own sales force to approximately 250 customers located primarily in the midwestern, southwestern and southeastern sections of the United States. These products and services are sold principally to steel distributors and to customers fabricating steel products such as storage tanks, steel buildings, farm machinery and equipment, construction equipment, transportation equipment, conveyors and other similar products.
The Company, through its Texas Tubular Products Division located in Lone Star, Texas, manufactures, purchases, processes and markets tubular products (“pipe”). The Company sells pipe nationally to approximately 260 customers and sells a substantial amount of manufactured pipe to LSS. The Company purchases a substantial portion of its annual supply of pipe and coil material used in pipe production from LSS. Loss of LSS as a source of such pipe and coil material supply or as a customer of manufactured pipe could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business.

MVK (Maverick Tube) is primarily a supplier to the oil/NG drillers. MVK will benefit from an expected slowdown in steel prices this year.....I think FRD would be hurt by that prospect. Plus, FRD seems more closely tied to general construction, farm equipment, etc which is out of favor at the moment.

PS: I own MVK after seeing your post on it. So thanks for that tip.

Hi Len,

The tournament is an interesting idea, and is appealing in the same way that the NCAA tournament is fun to watch (go UConn !)

I've noticed something that may be a recurring problem with the idea, but I don't know how to fix it. It seems that the early leaders will eventually suffer a reversion to the mean....so its best to have slow, steady returns in your PSL2 portfolio and hope you don't run into a contestant that has a huge two week run.

My guess is that the winner of the PSL2 "NCAA" tournament will come from the middle of the pack and peak at the end.

bbotcs, good points on the DAAT pr. Looking at fy04, Walmart and Kmart were 57% of sales:

"Although we have numerous customers, we generally sell on the basis of purchase orders, rather than fixed contracts, primarily to:

• national retail chains Wal-Mart and Kmart (in 2004, these national chains represent 57% of sales);

-DAAT's fy04 10k

I don't know how those percentages have changed, but let's be conservative and say that 50% of all sales continue to be to WalMart. And, let's also be conservative and assume that all of the Walmart sales in January were "catch-up" in nature and aren't truly organic. (So toss those out) That still shows organic growth of 14-15%, which is pretty damn good for this niche.

Lower margins are likely on the private label sales, so as product mix will include more of those, we'd have to assume that GMs will go down a bit. The key question is if they can handle all those new sales without having to expand SG&A, will pretax margins remain solid? If yes, then its still a good deal for DAAT and their shareholders, IMHO.

Curlews, I'm listening to the call now. The Taglich analyst asked about that comment in the PR, and mgmt clarified saying they meant that margins will be similar, if not higher in the second half. Guidance of 80MM in revs was reiterated. Of course, with higher revs in the back half the actual income will be higher as well.

Marketing exp will be less, and mix in backlog sounds as if it contains higher margin sport boats, but trends in the general industry aren't great. (He mentioned that Brunswick has announced lay-offs amid flat sales). Their customer is a different demographic however.

Backlog not given, but it was stated as being greater than 40MM and appears to be very high for the period. CEO was cagy on that question, sounded constrained by legal issues.

Note: company earnings are untaxed at present.

R59, your PE comment about AEY got me thinking:

"AEY is a distributor and that's generally a low PE group. "

While I do agree with the fact that distributors get low PEs, I think AEY is in a unique niche. To quote from their 10K:

"The CATV industry is highly competitive with numerous companies competing in various segments of the market. There are a number of competitors throughout the United States engaged in buying and selling re-manufactured CATV equipment. Most of our competitors are not able to maintain the large inventory we maintain due to capital requirements. In terms of sales and inventory, we are the largest in this industry, providing both sales and service of new and re-manufactured CATV equipment.


AEY's pretax margins for the past few quarters have been around 18-20%, which is quite large for distributors, which probably don't get much more than 2-5%. So, I would argue that they deserve a higher PE on that basis.

Now look at AEY's past history. Sales growth has been pretty good over the past 5 years:

FY05: 50273 +6.8%
FY04: 47071 +41.2%
FY03: 33328 +31.2%
FY02: 25409 +11.0%
FY01: 22885

PE range has been usually 10 - 20x earnings:



I think 13-15x estimates of 0.60 aren't out of the realm of possibility for AEY. In fact, if they post a decent Q2 that can show some growth over Q1, who's to say that this can't get a higher PE (say closer to 18x)?