I joined you on that KINS trade, buying some around 15.90. The insider buying is a plus and I like the outlook for earnings growth here. I was glad to see they aren't issuing more shares via that ATM.

I also added some HRTG in the 22s as well. Its arguably even cheaper.

HRTG is heading into the hurricane season, so that could be why some are taking a few off the table (and its moved up quite nicely since its last earnings report, so some profit taking was inevitable.) KINS is in the same boat in terms of profit taking.

I will slowly add if they drop some more.

Another insurance company I like and own (its more of a reinsurer, but they also do some P&C) is FIHL. Trades well below book, and is set to see its earnings rebound over the next 3 quarters after a disastrous past 6 months. Its cheaper than either KINS or HRTG, but more volatile in its earnings.

That hack involved Ethereum and was the fault of the ByBit exchange:
https://www.bybit.com/en/press/post/bybit-defies-odds-how-the-largest-crypto-hack-in-history-became-a-test-of-resilience-and-transparency-bltaa51ea097f27e9e4

Bitcoin is different than Ethereum. It is probably the most like Gold of all the crypto because of its strict supply controls. (Ethereum and many other crypto do not limit supply) Given the global concerns over US debt levels, it will continue to attract assets, especially as institutions and other individuals become increasingly comfortable with it as an alternative asset to stocks, bonds, cash, etc. IBIT is the ETF from Blackrock that holds the most Bitcoin and has been revolutionary in providing easy access to Bitcoin. Don't need to have a cold wallet or use a sketchy exchange.

I think of Bitcoin as a volatile Nasdaq stock. Gold has outperformed it this year, but I suspect that is because large institutions are still far more comfortable with gold as an asset vs BTC. Just wanted to point out that the hack never endangered the Bitcoin blockchain (nor did it really impact Ethereum either). The exchange that got hacked had sufficient resources to cover the loss and appeared to handle it well.

This might be your answer:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=176199620

I missed this in AYTU's 10K:

Adzenys XR-ODT: Amphetamine XR-ODT for the treatment of ADHD



Adzenys is approved by the FDA for the treatment of ADHD in patients six years and older and is the first FDA-approved amphetamine XR-ODT for the treatment of ADHD. The New Drug Application (“NDA”) for Adzenys relies on the efficacy and safety data that formed the basis of FDA approval for the reference listed drug, Adderall XR, 30 mg, together with bioequivalence, bioavailability, and aggregate safety data from the Adzenys clinical program. Adzenys contains amphetamine loaded onto a mixture of immediate-release and polymer-coated delayed-release resin particles, which are formulated and compressed into an ODT along with other tableting excipients using our patented Rapidly Disintegrating Ionic Masking (“RDIM”) technology. The result is amphetamine with an in vivo extended-release profile delivered through a tablet that quickly disintegrates in the mouth without the need for water. Adzenys is available in 30-day supply, child-resistant blister packs.

The suite of composition-of-matter patents for Adzenys are scheduled to expire in 2026 and 2032. These patents are listed in the FDA’s publication of approved drug products with therapeutic equivalence evaluations (the “Orange Book”). In addition, we entered into a settlement agreement with Actavis Laboratories FL, Inc. (“Actavis”) (acquired by Teva Pharmaceutical Industries), which resolved all ongoing litigation involving Adzenys patents and Actavis’ ANDA with the FDA for a generic version of Adzenys. Under the agreement with Actavis, Actavis has the right to manufacture and market its approved generic version of Adzenys under the ANDA beginning on September 1, 2025, or earlier under certain circumstances.

AND in the risk factors:

Thus, after the introduction of a generic competitor, a significant percentage of the sales of any branded product, such as our Rx Portfolio products, can be lost to the generic version. Accordingly, competition from generic equivalents to our products could materially adversely impact our revenues, profitability and cash flows and substantially limit our ability to obtain a return on the investments we have made in our products. For example, on July 25, 2016, we received a paragraph IV certification from Actavis advising them that Actavis filed an ANDA with the FDA for a generic version of Adzenys XR-ODT. On October 17, 2017, we entered into a Settlement Agreement and a Licensing Agreement with Actavis (which is now owned by Teva), pursuant to which we granted Actavis the right to manufacture and market its now approved generic version of Adzenys XR-ODT under the ANDA beginning on September 1, 2025, or earlier under certain circumstances. On October 31, 2017, we received a paragraph IV certification from Teva advising them that Teva filed an ANDA with the FDA for a generic version of Cotempla XR-ODT. On December 21, 2018, we entered into a Settlement Agreement and a Licensing Agreement with Teva, pursuant to which we have granted Teva the right to manufacture and market its now approved generic version of Cotempla XR-ODT under the ANDA beginning on July 1, 2026, or earlier under certain circumstances.

Their ADHD portfolio is the major component of their revs. In FY24, ADHD drug sales made up 71% of their entire revenues. Couldn't find how much of that is Adzenys, but I'd guess its a big chunk. Their other ADHD drug, Cotempla, has patents that start to expire in July 2026....so that's not great. They are truly facing an enormous hole to fill by 2026.

AYTU update. Just found out something that has given me pause about the lasting patent and sales strength of AYTU's ADHD drug Adzenis.
A short seller (White Diamond) just published this:

Breaking News Report: Aytu BioPharma’s ADHD Drugs Will Be Replaced By Generics from Teva Pharma Over The Next Year$AYTU

Read one-page report here:https://t.co/rMmEYI4vbY

— White Diamond (@WhiteResearch) May 16, 2025

I'd be careful using stops on AYTU. Its a highly volatile microcap, especially now with trading volume exploding. Way too many day traders in it right now who aren't looking at fundamentals. I prefer to fade any big move up or down, keeping each position size smaller than usual. I was buying in the pre-market from 1.75 - 1.93. Haven't sold any yet. I might be tempted to sell in the high 2s, if it gets there today.

Stunning how much volume there is right now. Also highly overbought, so it could reverse hard at any moment.

I added HALO also yesterday. Will be accumulating if it drops further. If you get a chance, listen to the latest event:
https://ir.halozyme.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2025/BofA-Securities-2025-Healthcare-Conference/default.aspx

The CEO discusses the issues regarding Medicare and pricing. Her take is that they have substantial arguments that the presence of their delivery drug Enhanze does create a better outcome for the patient than if it is absent. Thus, it deserves its separate price and premium and should not be lumped into the same category as the drug its helping to deliver into the patient.

$halo Halozyme’s CEO response from the AH presentation today, completely repudiating Leerink analyst -
"people struggling to interpret" with a "bit of confusion around that":
"So, today's reaction, way overblown,
misunderstood. Some people put out reports that had erroneous…

— Sean F. Anderson, MD (@MTJournalClub) May 14, 2025

Yes, I like this report from AYTU. They have put out a series of disappointing quarterly reports so far this year, but this is the first tangible sign of progress in their turnaround. They've sold off a money losing division and are focusing on their ADHD drugs and pediatric vitamins. The biggest event in their recent history was the recapitalization led by Nantahala Capital back in 2023. As part of that deal, they issued stock and warrants at a strike price of approx 1.60/sh. Some of those were exercised in Q1, and as of Q3, there were 5.9 MM warrants with an avg strike price of 3.10 (wtd avg). In the Q3 FDS count, the company lists 8.2MM FDS, and that is down from the YTD avg of 8.6MM (because of the drop in stock price). Conservatively, I'd use something like 9 - 10MM FDS for this year.

Using standard non-GAAP adjustments for comp, intangibles, and changes in FV for the warrant liabilities, I get an adjusted pretax of 2.4MM for Q3. Taxed at a proforma 20% rate would give an adjusted net of 1.92. FDS in the quarter was 8.2MM, but a better count is probably the YTD figure of 8.6MM. After all that, I get an adj fd eps of 0.22, which I think is capable of being repeated in Q4. I believe their weakest quarter is Q3, which covers the Jan - Mar quarter and is when many patients haven't used up their deductible and so there is some pressure on gross to net margins. That bodes well for Q4. I'd be happy if they were able to show continued improvement in GM and adj pretax margins. If they can earn 0.75 - 0.85 over the next year using my formula, I'd put a 4-5x multiple on that given the overhang from the warrants and the risky profile of limited products they sell. My target (subject to change) is 3.60/sh, but I'd be trading around a core position to take advantage of volatility.

AYTU (2.00) reported a decent quarter for its Q3. Q Adj FD EPS of 0.29 (untaxed); GAAP: 0.21, YTD: 0.28 (adj fd eps untaxed)/ GAAP eps: -0.29. Maybe they've turned the corner? Q3 Rev grew 32% y/y and positive eps vs a loss y/y
https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/healthcare-and-pharmaceutical/aytu-biopharma-reports-fiscal-2025-third-quarter-operational-and-fina-1027225

My guess is that Meridian Ventures has been a seller, perhaps in size recently. They have been consistently selling down their position over the past few years and they were selling in March 2025 at current price levels:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023024/000110465925023609/xslSCHEDULE_13D_X01/primary_doc.xml

Here are the past few 13D/A filings:
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/meridian-venture-partners-ii-gp-lp

HALO getting shellacked this AM on a Leerink Partners downgrade because of potential concerning regulatory changes that may impact the company's drug pricing protections:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/halozyme-shares-tumble-on-downgrade-and-cms-draft-guidance-93CH-4041952

PT is 47, which is where there appears to be major support. With pharma clearly in the regulatory crosshairs who knows what might happen? At best, it probably means a lowering of forward PEs for the entire sector on the uncertainty. Might be a good trade if it hits the high 40s

Asking some of the experts on this board for any possible issues for ANIP regarding the new CMS guidance relating to IRA drug price controls. Concerns over proposed new language hit HALO this am. Leerink downgrade PT to 47 from 63

"Risinger noted, "We are downgrading HALO from MP to UP and lowering our DCF-derived PT from $63 to $47. We adjusted our discount rate from 8% to 12% and lowered our terminal growth rate from -15% to -25%." The analyst further explained the rationale behind the downgrade, stating, "The catalyst for our downgrades is that CMS issued draft guidance for 2028 IRA drug price controls that creates risk that hyaluronidase combination products may not be protected from IRA price negotiations for 13 years after combo approval."

The Leerink Partners analyst also highlighted that the CMS draft guidance language suggests a reinterpretation of the protection period for combination products, which could lead to earlier-than-expected price controls. This change poses a significant risk to Halozyme’s product portfolio and future revenue projections. However, Risinger clarified that no changes to revenue projections were made at this time, as the final guidance from CMS is expected in the second half of 2025."

OPXS (7.60) has a decent quarter, reporting 0.26 GAAP for Q2. No analysts follow. Backlog was down a bit y/y, but that number doesn't appear to include an order (5.7MM) received after the quarter closed.

https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/electronics-and-engineering/optex-systems-holdings-inc.-announces-financial-highlights-for-the-thre-1026829

There were a couple of concerns that came out of today's CC for ANIP. 1. The guidance is definitely front end (1H) loaded, and with an easy comp coming up in Q2 for sales and eps, that means they will probably show flattish eps growth in the 2nd half, especially in Q4. 2. Iluvien and Yutiq sales were weaker in the Q1 than expected, and there was some skepticism about their ability to meet the annual guide for those drug sales. So, we'll see. Today's selloff is taking the stock close to its 50 DMA. I'd be looking to add more in the low 60s as I think it will eventually get to 75-80 range. It briefly hit 77 in the premarket.

OPRT hit my target and I'm out. Looking dangerously overbought

OPRT (sub-prime lender) crushed their Q1 guide and analyst est for Q1. (Reported 0.40 eps v 0.08 consensus) Didn't raise FY25 guidance however, because of conservative outlook based on soft data concerns around the economy. Keeping credit standards tight, reducing the amount of new loans they plan to originate from 10-15% y/y to 10% now. Trades at 5.4x the midpoint of their FY25 eps guide. I can see it reaching 6x-7x. Has had some wild swings in the recent past.....

ANIP in with a good quarter. Another beat and raise for them. Similar management style to HALO in their earnings "management"; where they typically guide very conservatively to give themselves room to exceed expectations. They don't have anywhere near the pretax margins because they have a product mix that includes generics. Primarily US footprint, 10% of drugs they sell are imports; <5% from China.

Valuation: I could see them at 12-14x forward earnings, and I expect to see analysts raise their numbers soon. FY26 est look too low to me too.

Nelson, what's your view on the HRTG earnings report? Any guess as to eps for FY25? Way too overbought for me to even think about starting a position now.
I remember the expose that was done on the company highlighting its poor customer service and borderline unethical practices. I thought it would never recover from that!

HALO Between the management team and its Enhanze drug system of delivery, its been an amazing company and stock. The stock may be a little ahead of itself, and I'd be more willing to buy on a pullback to the 60 area. They continue to beat and raise consistently. Hallmark of a great management team, IMHO.

AVNW. Bought into the turnaround story here today. Sold off this morning after a decent report, and I picked up a good chunk below 20. Here's the Q3 report:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4442627-aviat-networks-non-gaap-eps-of-0_88-beats-by-0_60-revenue-of-112_6m-beats-by-7_77m

They handily beat the consensus estimate, and while they didn't increase their guidance for FY25, they are comfortable with the analysts ests for rev in Q4. I think they will continue to beat the estimates for this year; the key will be how they guide for next year. Seems like some of the big telecom infrastructure spend has bottomed and they expect a recovery in a couple of quarters (from the call). Tariffs will hit GMs a bit, but they expect to navigate their way around it via expanded supply chains, targeted price increases, and improved cost efficiencies in SGA. I think they could do 2.90+ next year (taxed at 20%) and might get a 10x multiple on those earnings. Actual earnings are taxed far less given their huge NOLs. Will continue to slowly add if it dips down to the low 19s and high 18s on a price consolidation. Stock was down to 16 a few weeks ago, so it may need some time to digest those gains.

PDEX. Looks like one of their large customers is deferring shipments of a next gen product? From the mgmt discussion (Q3 10Q):

"Our medical device revenue to our largest customer, included in orthopedic sales above, increased $1.8 million and $7.5 million, respectively, for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the corresponding periods of the prior fiscal year due primarily to the launch of that customer’s next generation handpiece. As can be common with new product launches in the industry, the customer’s internal design of the next generation handpiece continues to evolve, and the customer has recently informed us that it is holding off on next generation handpiece shipments in favor of continued shipments and enhanced repair of the legacy handpieces as the customer continues to refine the next generation handpiece’s design. Although we cannot predict the timing of the customer’s further transition to the next generation handpiece at this time, we fully anticipate a resumption of shipments of the next generation handpiece once the design enhancements are finalized, coupled with larger orders of the legacy handpiece during the interim. "

Backlog is steady, but the orders expected to ship in Q4 look low from their previous expectation for the 2H:
At March 31, 2025, we had a backlog of approximately $49.5 million, of which $12.8 million is scheduled to be delivered in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and the balance is scheduled to be delivered next fiscal year. " -Q3

Q2 10Q:
"At December 31, 2024, we had a backlog of approximately $48.1 million, of which $36.3 million is scheduled to be delivered in fiscal 2025"

No idea why HLF is trading down this morning. I had some limit orders at 6.70 that hit and were filled at 6.50, so it must have been a market order that the specialists were happy to let me take. As Hweb would say, what are the sellers thinking?!?

HLF reported its Q1; reported 0.59 (adj) vs 0.49 y/y and beating the analysts' estimate of 0.41/sh. This number isn't truly reflective of what they could have done. Still showing a currency drag from the stronger dollar vs one year ago. Currency impacted the results by -0.13, and they took an inventory write-off that further reduced earnings by 0.11. (Neither of these charges are excluded from their adjusted earnings.) So even if they show flat revenue growth, their margins still have room to improve. Debt paydown was minimal, and because of an earlier refi, their interest expense was much higher in Q1. Those comps get much easier going forward. On the call, management said that US tariffs are not likely to significantly impact their margins; one of their materials is sourced from China but noted that it might only amount to 10-15MM additional dollars. It's not inconceivable that HLF could earn closer to 2.30 in eps this year and with a very modest 4-5 multiple could be worth 10.35+ It closed the day at 7.20

In the midst of a slow turnaround. Lots of baggage here as many don't like the business model or the products they sell, so it will probably never get a high multiple.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20085763-herbalife-reports-q1-net-sales-at-midpoint-of-guidance-range-net-sales-growth-excluding-fx#hasComeFromMpArticle=false

HLF (7.20) reports after the close today. It spiked after the last report, so this one should also be interesting. They are impacted by tariffs, but they probably have inventory to get through the next 6 mos, plus they should be positively impacted by the weak USD. I'm guessing they beat the quarterly number, but I don't really have a good handle on the forward outlook, other than I think they can grow earnings at 5%+ this year. Trades at 3.5x FY25 estimated eps. Capital allocation is focused on paying down debt, so no big buyback coming...but interest expense reduction isn't nothing either.

FSLR. Don't forget that the vast majority of their gross and profit margins are from tax policy (section 45x) that could be overturned by the Trump administration and I believe is scheduled to start phasing out in 2030 anyway

This group often trades so contrarian to their fundamentals and way ahead of an actual turn. The forward guidance was reduced, so anyone buying today is either short covering or gambling that the outlook/results for FY26 and beyond will be much better than this year. The only positive I could find in this report is the $5B share buyback plan, which is roughly 13% of market cap for DHI. 30 yr mortgage rates appear to be range-bound in the 6.75% - 7.00% levels. Down a little bit from year ago levels, but not by much. And with tariffs looming, I don't see much relief for interest rates on the immediate horizon.

PPSI Don't think I've ever seen "non-GAAP" operating income defined this way:

"Non–GAAP operating income* from continuing operations, which excludes corporate overhead expenses, research and development expenses and non-recurring professional fees, was $1.6 million, as compared to $0.1 million for the same quarter in 2023, a year-over-year improvement of approximately $1.5 million."

The non-recurring professional fees I can agree with backing out. They had some stock comp. But taking out all corporate overhead and r&d? That's giving non-GAAP a bad name.

Looking at their annual cash flow statement, you could add back the stock comp and the realized loss to the annual GAAP pretax loss, but that still shows them at a -3.0 pretax loss. If I had to guess, they were still losing money in Q4 on a realistic adjusted basis.

Not so fast....

“All those iPhones built in China, that those tariffs are temporarily off but they're gonna be coming right back on in another form in a month or so?”

“Correct. That’s right.”

Incoherent, incompetent administration through and through.

pic.twitter.com/ojNgXGlljV

— Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) April 13, 2025

The only thing that's missing in that equation are some Greek symbols....LOL

And there is still the uncertainty factor. What happens as we get close to 90 days from now? How can any business plan to make major capital investments or any other big moves without understanding the tariff tax regime and its impact on their customers? Does Trump even understand how tariffs work? Does he understand that tariffs are a hugely regressive tax on the American consumer and American businesses that have to pay them??? And that the manufacturing he wants to reshore is NOT going to return, especially not with such a huge differential in wage and infrastructure costs here in the US.....its a pipe dream.

Is their goal to force manufacturing to reshore in order to avoid these incredibly high tariffs? Or to force countries to lower their own tariffs to avoid a mutually assured economic destruction scenario? Seems contradictory (and confusing) to me.

Interesting. That is exactly what Bill Ackman was pushing for:

The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust.

President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical…

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) April 6, 2025

This group (homebuilders) so often trades way ahead of the turn in earnings. Clearly investors buying today are hoping that lower interest rates will spur more demand. The fundamentals are terrible right now. I've seen builder after builder reporting lower backlogs AND lower sales and margins. Any turn, if it happens, probably won't be seen until next year, but its possible we're seeing the lows right now. I can still remember when these traded at 6x earnings, so there could easily be more downside.

CSPI....I get that IT and cyber security is probably going to remain in strong demand....but the valuation here is pretty stretched. My calc for non-gaap (taxed at 20%) fd eps for Q1 was 0.05, up from 0.04 y/y. In FY24 they earned 0.14/sh using the same type of calculation. Stock trades at 14? Even with an aggressive valuation of 30x forward of 0.20, fair value is closer to 6, not 14. Yes, I see the strength of the balance sheet, roughly 3.00/sh net debt. Even being kind and adding all of that to my aggressive FV, maybe its worth $9?

Backlog from Q4 was way down y/y. Sales growth was tepid in Q1; maybe there is some enthusiasm about rev growth in the upcoming months?

I don't see it as a screaming value.

I own a little JAMF, if you want to use a comp.

Thanks 2morrow...I appreciate the perspective. Agreed that higher quality and cheap stocks should bounce back more quickly or at least hold up better in this tape. I will look a little more closely at your top picks.

I really hope you're right, hweb. Unfortunately, Trump has loved the idea of tariffs for a long time, and he has been obsessed with erasing trade deficits with individual countries since the 1980s. He honestly thinks that tariffs will save us and re-orient the economy into something resembling a 1930s or 1890s period. Will business leaders rise up against this? Will the American people reject this insanity? I don't even know where to begin.

I'm curious about the long-term buy and holders or BTFDers in the audience here who are reducing their allocation into the market given the Trump policies? (And I'm including the DOGE led cuts on top of these punitive and regressive tariffs.) This double whammy will be hard to overcome, imho. Market expectations are simply not priced for this level of contractionary policies. Not to mention this feels like a sea change in the global trade/economic world order. I have been conditioned to believe in the ideal of free trade, even with a lot of the warts that have sadly led to the rise of politicians like Trump.

Really hard to know how long these tariffs will last, but the uncertainty factor will likely reduce the desire to embrace risk in the short-term. I know that I've been looking to sell, worrying that if I just wait to hear the outlooks from companies in the upcoming Q1 cc's, they will only reiterate/confirm my dire outlook for so much of stocks. I've been hiding in cash for a while, but I had been a net buyer of stocks so far this year as some stock prices had fallen to interesting levels. Now? Nothing seems really safe, but I'm always scouring the market to find some bargains that have been unfairly punished in the market wide dump. Good luck out there today.....we are going to need it.

Futures plunging as China hits back after Trump tariffs announced:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-tariffs-trade-war-04-04-2025?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

China lashed back at Trump’s tariffs, applying 34% levies on all imported goods from the U.S. Beijing said the retaliatory tariffs would come into effect Thursday, the day after a big part of Trump’s promised tariffs go live.

The tariff selloff accelerated Friday, with the China retaliation and recession fears pushing investors to sell stocks and hide in the safety of government bonds.

Markets took little comfort from President Trump's willingness to negotiate over the tariffs. The levies were deeper and more aggressive than the business world expected. And even as Trump left the door open to making deals, he vowed new tariffs on drugs and microchips.

Stock futures pointed to more selling pressure on U.S. equities, with S&P 500 futures down more than 2%, adding to Thursday's $3.1 trillion wipeout, the worst day for U.S. stocks since March 2020. Overseas markets took fresh hits. Japan's benchmark stock index fell more than 2.7%. European stocks tumbled more than 4%.

JAZZ. Does the slowing growth in eps estimates in FY26 and beyond concern you? A 5-6x PE on forward adj eps may be fair value, if that is the probable scenario.

This is probably what triggered the heavy selloff in the Nasdaq and Mag7 yesterday. A lot of future growth throughout the tech sector is tied to AI investment and capex and the ripple effects from a slowdown in that spending could just be beginning. Concerns over tariff policy and uncertainty increasing over future economic growth in the US don't help either.

Not sure how much this will matter, but KEQU has a tough Q4 comp coming up. Reported last year an adjusted fd eps of 1.55/sh in Q4, and that was lightly taxed at ~12%. Adj pretax margins have actually been falling YTD, which has been covered up by a much lower effective tax rate in FY25 v FY24, so net income growth looks better than it actually is. Yes backlog is up, and revenue growth might be decent, but how much will translate into adj pretax income? They will also have higher interest expense next year too from the cash borrowed to fund the acquisition.