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Re: researcher59 post# 37791

Tuesday, 03/14/2006 12:01:46 PM

Tuesday, March 14, 2006 12:01:46 PM

Post# of 174020
R59, if you're interested in other shippers that have more stable charter rates and end markets than the drybulk market, check out the LPG group. I own both MCX and GASS, and each has different strengths from a VMC perspective.

GASS did an IPO in the last 6 mos, and they are continuing to build their fleet while paying a nice dividend around 5.75%. FD eps are expected to grow nicely this year, and the bulk of that is already committed in 1 yr timecharters. If rates can continue to rise on the strength of demand from Europe, Japan, and the Far East GASS should continue to show growth in eps in FY07 as well. Trades at 6.8x my guess for earnings in FY06.

MCX pays out a lower dividend, around 2%, but they should have stronger growth in eps over the next year as they are turning over 5-6 tankers that are coming off long-term charters that had substantially lower rates. Management has said that these recent re-charters were done at a 45% increase in rates:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060227/20060227005471.html?.v=1

MCX has also been adding to its fleet as well, buying two ships in the past month. MCX trades at around 6.4x my estimate for FY06.

GASS offers more transparency as they have excellent data on their charter rates on their website. MCX is a bit more close-mouthed about their deals.

I think both stocks could be worth 16+ in the coming 12 mos, assuming the global economy (esp Japan, Europe, and China) doesn't go into the tank.
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