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Question on the "VMC PSL CHAMPIONS BOARD"? Does anyone know why you need a "premium subscription" to post on that board?
Cramer is a pumper (albeit a successful one).....and his followers are his "tools".
Len, Kansas had 182 heating degree days forecast for this week, which is 73 less than normal....and 60 less than last year:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt
niles, I have my doubts that Hollywood will ever give Netflix rights for digital distribution.
I was lucky enough to own Netflix puts this day:
Netflix Hit by Download Delay
By Sandy Brown
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
10/20/2005 4:47 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Sandy Brown
Shares in online movie service Netflix (NFLX:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) took it on the chin Thursday, thanks to uncertainty over its planned movie download service.
The Los Gatos, Calif., entertainment company saw its shares decline 9% by the end of Thursday trading. The slide came just a day after Netflix posted solid third-quarter earnings. News out of the third-quarter analyst call provoked the selloff when CEO Reed Hastings said the company would delay online downloads indefinitely thanks to pushback from Hollywood content providers.
The studios are looking for ways to best monetize movie product in an environment in which piracy remains an ongoing concern, box-office results have been soft, and DVD sales have been inconsistent. Netflix will continue to pursue download technology, but Netflix plans will wait until Hollywood comes around and coughs up the content.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/sandybrown/10248679.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_....
OT: Tonight's Orange Bowl is a great example of why I invest; but don't bet on sports.
Who could have predicted so many missed field goals? ...let alone the missed extra point!
But whoever invested in paying off the Florida State kicker to throw the game made a great investment!
We are.......
Penn State!!!
Bob, 3 of the 5 "Best of 2005" were either discussed here or on RB by "value microcapers" at one time or another (FPP, NTRI, and VPHM). Two of those were discussed long before they were listed on major exchanges (FPP & NTRI). That fact just affirms that this thread focusing on Value Microcaps is one of the best places to scout for new investment ideas.
As we poke around for Value Microcaps in 2006 we're bound to encounter some of the best performers for the coming year as well...if we don't already have them on our watchlists :)
It's just a matter of being able to recognize them early, which is much easier said than done.....and for seeing so many so early....I can't believe I didn't come away with one of those top five this year!
As I looked back at that #1 gainer to kick myself, I thought I recalled you, swampboots, and a few others being "too early" with me there too....or am I the only one that completely lost track of it as it seamed the diet mania was dying?:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=THIN&read=74
But the general trend of Value Microcaps in the top performers list just goes to show that as long as a blind squirrel stays close to the "Value Microcaps" tree, they're bound to find plenty of nuts. In that perspective, I just showed a friend who's relatively new to investing to this board.
Happy New Year everyone! eom.
Mike I like UGNE for 2006, but I'm not sure I'd back up the truck at these current prices. Actually, I wish you had got in under $4 when I first mentioned it here!!!
Don’t get me wrong, I'm not selling any of mine at current prices either, but I’m looking for a pull back to buy more. I guess the depth of the pullback depends on a number of things...including how long the company remains quiet before announcing another milestone payment under one of their existing agreements with Novartis and gsk.
As you said, I'm not sure they'll be able to show sequential growth from last quarter....especially since it doesn't seam they've received any milestone payments under their Novartis or gsk agreements this quarter.
Since the company hasn't issued any guidance, their future revenues and earnings is all a guessing game. So the following only represents some of my guesses...that I consider conservative.
But based on their Fortical royalties of $2M in three weeks last quarter, I am guessing that they should at least be able to post royalties of about $5M this quarter.....and product sales of at least $1.5M. So basically, I'm hoping to see revenue of at least $6M and an EPS of at least 0.03 for this quarter.
While these numbers don't qualify it for discussion as a value microcap, I do expect them to be getting some milestone payments early next year that could give them a value microcap kind of EPS for the quarter ending March of next year.
If you haven't seen my earlier posts, I have found that Fortical is now recommended over Miacalcin in the Aetna and Blue Cross prescription drug formularies. Miacalcin had a U.S. market of $237M last year....and I imagine Aetna and Blue Cross customers could constitute a significant portion of that market. But considering Miacalcin is usually delivered in a three month supply (3 bottles), I'm not expecting to see a significant effect from this in the current quarters numbers....especially considering the royalties are going to cover the period from 9/1/05 through 11/30/05.
But the next quarters numbers should begin to reflect that change in prescription formularies....and I believe revenues should begin to ramp more consistently from there on out.
Good luck in all your investments….and happy New Year to everyone!
PTLDE and GENX are two I think could benefit from the January effect.
PTLDE is reorganizing the business...and I see some good potential for a profitable oil services business to emerge.
GENX is just dirt cheap and boring.....and I think now is a good entry point with the stock trading under its book value.
Happy New Year to all!
otcbargains re GAMM: I think that most of us here can appreciate that some of the best value microcap opportunities are found in low volume and undiscovered stocks....even if the particular stock is not appealing to us for whatever reason. After all, low volume and undiscovered stocks are where the rules of the "efficient market" are least likely to hold true.
I also think StockCowboy's post did nothing more than state the obvious....which seams to be his forte. But I could understand why a "cowboy" wouldn't take to a stock like this that is more like waiting for grass to grow.
UGNE: niles_crane3, hope you didn't get shaken....I wish I had bought more....it's hitting new 52-week highs again.
I'm not sure what next quarter is going to look like for revenue and earnings....the royalty period is going to be 9/1/05-11/30/05....and product sales will go through December.
But I consider it very possitive that Aetna and Blue Cross have already included Fortical in their formularies over Miacalcin....I'm just not sure when the effect of that is really going to show-up in their numbers?
UGNE: EP, I think you picked a real winner there, thanks! I'd like to buy more, but keep thinking it will pull back, but it keeps going the opposite way....I guess I can't complain :)
OT: TBILLS
Have you had Dr. Roseberg for any Econ classes? I had him for Econ 428 back in 1995 and thought he was a pretty good Proffesor. But he was pretty old then, so he might be retired now?
Are you an east-sider or a west-sider?
Zeno's or the G-man?
In any case, the fact remains....."We are Penn State!"
...and Michigan just sucks!
AEMD, no results to report, so they got hammered....not what I expected....so I got out at about break-even.
Still a good one for the watchlist.....it really makes he most sense to me for a first line of defense for project Bush's project Bioshield.
AEMD up another 17% today....and the presentation is coming at 1:20 p.m.:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051214/20051214005487.html?.v=1
AEMD up 16%, but with a market cap of $11M there's still a lot of room for it to move if their results are slightly more possitive than SCLN's results they announced today :)
AEMD continuing to boosh....I don't think they'd be having a webcast if the news was going to be bad:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051214/20051214005487.html?.v=1
AEMD begining a boosh ahead of announcing these results Thursday:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051207/20051207005284.html?.v=1
UGNE...why is it gapping up? I'll just never understand some things about the market, but I'm not complaining :)
UGNE gapping up again. Even though lebed got involved, I wouldn't attribute all the recent buying to "dumb money"....and it appears the buyers are back!
UGNE: niles, obviously some profit taking....and EP is right that UGNE was mentioned in a few newsletters too....but unlike him I wouldn't attribute ALL the recent buying to "dumb money":
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=UGNE&read=7428
http://www.subscriptionconnection.com/subscriptions/6721616626215716/
Even dumber, I've been encouraged by seeing the Aetna and Blue Cross perscription formularies favoring Fortical over Miacalcin.
When I got into this stock at $3.50 I got in for the revenue ramp of Fortical, the $150M in remaining milestone payments under the Novartis and gsk agreements....so I'm still in.
UGNE: This should bode well for UGNE:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051212/nym183.html?.v=30
This from UGNE's 10Q:
NOTE E – NOVARTIS AGREEMENT
In April 2004, we signed a worldwide licensing agreement with Novartis for a value before royalties of up to $18,700,000 to allow Novartis to manufacture calcitonin using our patented peptide production process. We received $5,600,000 from Novartis in April 2004 consisting of a $3,500,000 up-front payment and a partial prepayment on Novartis’ purchases of calcitonin from us in the amount of $2,100,000. In August 2004, we received $2,000,000 from Novartis for a technology transfer milestone. Revenue recognition of the up-front licensing fee and the milestone has been deferred over the estimated 14-year performance period of the license agreement. Revenue recognition of the prepayment for calcitonin purchases was recognized as we shipped product to Novartis during 2004. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2005, we recognized $98,000 and $295,000 in licensing revenue. During 2004, Novartis purchased calcitonin from us for use in their oral calcitonin development program. Novartis has implemented our patented manufacturing process at Novartis facilities. Sandoz, a Novartis affiliate, has concluded a manufacturing campaign based on our process and produced multiple kilograms of calcitonin at a scale that represents a ten-fold increase above our current production capacity. Calcitonin produced by Sandoz is projected to be used by Novartis in future studies including clinical trials. We will receive royalties on sales of any existing or future Novartis products that contain calcitonin manufactured by Novartis using our technology. We will continue to develop our oral, nasal and injectable calcitonin products. If our oral calcitonin product is successfully developed, we would purchase calcitonin from Novartis, thereby eliminating our need to construct a second, larger-scale calcitonin manufacturing facility. This agreement may be terminated by either party due to a material breach not cured within 60 days or due to insolvency or bankruptcy proceedings not dismissed within 60 days and for other customary events of default.
EP, how ugly is that EZEN chart getting? eom
GENX, I'm in there with you.
But I don't think it was tax selling that caused the sell-off in November, I think it was the change of auditor....their third in a year. On the surface that looks prett scary, yet all the auditors have signed off saying they have no major disagreement with the numbers.
So that has me thinking that maybe they're just looking for a little more support from their auditor for the aquisition they announced last year.....it's been a while....but I think it could still happen? ...maybe?
Their new auditor claims to have a full service merger and acquisitions department that handles things from the start of negotiations to IR/promotional activity....
http://www.gcalliance.com.hk/merger.html
UGNE @ $4.20, time to party!! eom
OT: EP, it's sort of strange how you and I have been in a dead heat in that pick six lotto contest for the past few weeks.....even though we have completely different list of stocks???
Zen lunatic420: AID, CMNN.ob, EPG, EZEN.ob, IAGX.ob, MFIC.ob
Estimated Prophet: CCEL.ob, DAAT.ob, PDGE.ob, RIMS.ob, UAHC, VSYS.ob
12/7: 54 ESTIMATED PROPHET 13.59%
55 ZEN LUNATIC420 12.20%
12/2: 55 ZEN LUNATIC420 13.30%
56 MSGI 12.88%
57 ESTIMATED PROPHET 11.94%
11/29: 55 ZEN LUNATIC420 10.21%
56 ESTIMATED PROPHET 9.88%
11/25: 55 ESTIMATED PROPHET 12.78%
56 MSGI 12.05%
57 ZEN LUNATIC420 8.64%
I tried to think of some good entries for your contest, but really couldn't think of any good ones for this one month time line.
GENX bid picking up, .165 x .18 now. eom.
UGNE: My best guess would be that maybe some institution found this information too?:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=UGNE&read=7409
UGNE: Having two major insurance carriers switching their formularies from Novartis' Miacalcin to UGNE's Fortical should get UGNE's revenue ramp off to a quick start….giving Fortical a measurable chunk of market share over the next few months.
But what's more is Unigene says Novartis never really invested much in marketing Miacalcin....and that Unigene's market partner Upsher-Smith Laboratories (USL) is going to invest to expand the market for a nasal Calcatonin drug to treat osteoporosis beyond the $377M in Miacalcin sales for 2004.
With many women still seeking alternatives to hormone replacement therapy (HRT) due to it's risk factors for breast cancer and strokes, I think there's still a lot of room to expand sales of nasal calcatinin into a $4B osteoporosis market.
Here’s more than I ever wanted to know about HRT....and it's use to treat menopause:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormone_replacement_therapy
UGNE: Aetna and Blue Cross have UGNE's Fortical listed as a "preferred drug" already!
Here's Aetna's "Preferred Drug" list:
http://www.aetna.com/formulary/muscle_2005.html
Blue Cross lists Novartis' Miacalcin as a "Non-preferred" brand....and list Fortical as the alternative:
https://www.capbluecross.com/NR/rdonlyres/D75740A9-D0B6-4814-8402-779D01B30960/0/2006_1MBRFORMULARY_NF194.pdf
Miacalcin was a $377M product worldwide last year for Novartis....and Novartis wasn't actively promoting it according to UGNE's R&R presentation:
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/rrshq7/ugne/
Niles,
You may be interested in this reply I got from BioLok's investor relations firm:
"BioLok's full earnings results will be issued in a press release in the coming weeks. At that time, we will provide more detail on the quarter as well as an update on other company developments.
Jordan M. Darrow"
>>> This was in reply to a long e-mail I wrote basically begging them not mention the hurricane anymore (since they said it was basically a non-event)....and instead mention some of the positive developments they've accomplished over the past few months without issuing any PR about. For example they've launched a new product, doubled the size of their U.S. sales team, and signed distributors in France and Japan.....but never issued any PR for any of that???? The company obviously needs some help with IR, hopefully this guy can do it?
If you wonder where I got all this information, it's just some of what's in their August 10th 8k filing here:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/840573/000114420405024754/ex99-2.htm
UGNE moving.
BLLI moving up on above average volume:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BLLI,uu[l,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lf]...
Besides the nice top line growth, there's quite a few wild cards that could come into play here too....see my previous posts.
snow, why is this different than VLXC? You had a very contrary opinion about their situation.
Posted by: snow
In reply to: george222 who wrote msg# 5973
Date:12/17/2004 3:04:35 PM
Post #of 10625
Do you really expect anything better from this company? The reason why projected earnings per share is higher than the stock price reflects of course the fact that Mr Matin has no credibility. Of course this is based on what has happened in the past.
Posted by: snow
In reply to: shrotker who wrote msg# 6222
Date:12/25/2004 6:33:23 AM
Post #of 10625
Based on his past history my guess is that Matin is lying.
snow, a "world of difference" seams like a bit of an overstatement when it is the same CEO, the same company, and a very similar projection in revenue amount.
Although you say "Anybody with any sense would see that there is a world of difference between the two situations", I will wait to see the report before commenting about anyone's sensibility.
I was just sharing my thoughts....and admitted my mistake of selling too early.
GLTY
Call me a crazy, but I at least expect the company to erase their previous overblown estimates before they issue more!
I'm probably also a bit bitter about my knee-jerk sell on 11/21 @ $.128 when I first noticed that previous guidance myself.
CNCN: I liked the CNCN 4th quarter projections PR until I noticed management also made simular bold projections for 2004....projecting $13M in revenue...that actually turned out to be $1.5M.
This gave me more of a "show me, don't tell me" attitude about this one.
I found this on their website by going to "about Cintel", then to "IR":
http://www.cintelcorp.net/
Form 10KSB for CINTEL CORP
Annual Report(14-Apr-2004)
ITEM 6. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
The following discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the information set forth in the audited financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2003, and December 31, 2003.
Results of Operations for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2003 and 2002.
Net sales for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2003, compared to the fiscal year ended December 31, 2002, decreased from approximately 3% from $5,476,702 to $5,300,370. Cost of sales, however, rose is a dramatic fashion from $3,901,035 in 2002 to $5,276,542 in 2003. This constitutes an increase of approximately 35%. This increase resulted in an operating loss for 2003 of ($1,735,167) compared to an operating loss of ($257,764) in 2002. The increase in cost of sales was a result of more product being sold into the market place during 2003. However, there was not a corresponding increase in gross sales because of a poor performing economy in Korea during 2003. The poor economy forced purchasers into lower end products on which CinTel does not have a good markup. This accounted for the strong volume without commensurate revenue. These dynamics also effected our competition within the industry in a similar manner and competition became very strong during the year driving bid prices further down. Expenses for the same time periods decreased slightly from $1,833,431 to $1,758,995.
Projections
Management believes that its current business development plans will increase the business of CinTel significantly over the next twelve months. Management believes that it can achieve operating income of $1,500,000 during that time on revenues of $13,000,000 against cost of sales of $8,700,000 and operating expenses of $2,800,000. It should be noted that these projections are in stark departure from the operating results CinTel experienced in 2003 and are premised upon management's belief that it can significantly grow its business during the next twelve months and that the growth will lead to profitable operations. The projections anticipate an increase in sales of approximate 145% with corresponding increases in cost of sales and operating expenses of only 65% and 58% respectively. These projections are further premised upon the following assumptions of management.
- We assume a slow-growth economy without major recession.
- We assume of course that there are no unforeseen changes in technology to make products immediately obsolete.
- Nature and Limitation of Projections -This financial projection is based on sales volume at the levels described in the projections of this paragraph and presents, to the best of management's knowledge and belief, the company's expected assets, liabilities, capital, revenues, and expenses. The projections reflect management's judgement of the expected conditions and its expected course of action, given the hypothetical assumptions.
- Revenues - The Company's revenue is derived primarily from subscriptions. Revenue projections are based on the 1999 sales in the comparable market nationwide, based on industry average.
- Expenses - The Company's expenses are primarily those of salaries, sales commissions, development costs, operating costs, and administrative costs. Other expenses are based on management's estimates and industry averages.
Trends We expect that there will be no negative impact on our business in the future. The popularity of the Internet has resulted in an ever-increasing number of users transmitting rapidly increasing volumes of data, and the data getting more complex. The number of web users is expected to increase, as the broadband becomes much more common and widely spread. Increasingly, content providers are incorporating audio and video into their sites. Consumers are steadily increasing the duration of online sessions with the broadband connections. The end result of such a mass scale usage is congestion. The Internet has also evolved into the platform for many mission-critical applications, such as
e-commerce/e-learning, and financial business. In other words, wherever we find the Internet and web, there will be a market for the ITM solutions and importance of it will increase more and more. The upside potential for the ITM industry, specially caching field, over the next two years is significant and expansion by acquisition is a must in order to survive this industry, reflecting the current trend of networking technology, that is a merging of technologies into one.
I'm took a little long position here last week.
I think this could be a good sleeper play, with an already profitable operation reporting $0.04 EPS for the first nine months of '05, I think an entry under $0.20 could offer a nice return if/when this company ever finalizes that acquisition and/or expands their current operations.
The company has only been listed for about a year now.....and is just in its infancy IMO.
EZEN: Hweb, I like EZEN because it's a value stock with zip code changing potential. I think your target of $3 could prove to be way too conservative depending on how a few key upcoming events play out.
I've typed-up this post to try summarize some of the more obscure DD about EZEN's fundamentals for you to consider....or maybe this DD isn't as obscure as I think? In any case, here's the summary:
Much of the growth in IWS licensing revenues in 2005 is based on a DOD project called the Next Generation Collaboration System (NGCS) pilot project. This post of mine on the Raging Bull EZEN board gives a bit of background on EZEN's involvement in the NGCS:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=EZEN&read=3756
The NGCS pilot will lead to a new program called the Net Centric Enterprise Services (NCES) Program, which is anticipated to award contracts in January 2006. As I understand it, the NCES is being solicited as an RFQ, which will award multiple contract vehicles to DOD software integrators and/or directly to software companies. The goal of the NGCS/NCES is to achieve interoperability between the various commercial off the shelf (COTS) collaboration software and other DOD collaboration capabilities before rolling out a universal set of solutions across the DOD. As such, I don't think this is going to be an "all or none" type of program for any of the vendors already working with the DOD. Here is a link to another post of mine on the RB EZEN board that points to the DISA RFQ and highlights a few interesting points:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=EZEN&read=3680
Don't forget about EZEN's SBIR work either, I hope they can leverage some of this work into a dinstinct competitive advantage for preferred vendor status on the classified network:
http://www.seomarketwire.com/0407/20040728T142100Z-070566.html
Lastly, this tidbit from EZEN’s third quarter newsletter offers some promise is also having some success at expanding their customer base outside the realm of the DOD and other federal governments agencies:
Ezenia! Joins CMAS
The California Multiple Award Schedule (CMAS) is similar to the federal General Services Administration (GSA), in which contracts are established using products, services, and prices from already existing competitively assessed and cost compared multiple award contracts. The CMAS will allow California state and local government agencies to order Ezenia!'s InfoWorkSpace (IWS) software directly from Verizon at predetermined best price levels. The process for procurement is streamlined considerably and allows IWS to be marketed to agencies in all regions of the state.
While Ezenia! is providing IWS collaboration and Verizon Wireless is providing wireless broadband, the Verizon Enterprise Solutions Group (ESG) has set up a DS3 internet connection, and designed and deployed a sophisticated VPN (Virtual Private Network) infrastructure similar to VPN solutions running IWS in highly secure locations of the federal government such as the J. Edgar Hoover Building. The team expects to open new areas of the California State Government to IWS collaboration and Verizon ESG infrastructure in the coming months. Joint meetings have already taken place in Utility Management, Emergency Operations, 911, National Guard, and State Homeland Security.
len, engineers standardize energy efficiency data to the number of heating degree days (HDD). If you're feeling really bored, that data should be available from our closest NOAA weather station:
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/documentlibrary/hcs/hcs.html
Those electric heaters give off really dry heat.....you'll probably need a $100 humidifier soon :)