Mike I like UGNE for 2006, but I'm not sure I'd back up the truck at these current prices. Actually, I wish you had got in under $4 when I first mentioned it here!!!
Don’t get me wrong, I'm not selling any of mine at current prices either, but I’m looking for a pull back to buy more. I guess the depth of the pullback depends on a number of things...including how long the company remains quiet before announcing another milestone payment under one of their existing agreements with Novartis and gsk.
As you said, I'm not sure they'll be able to show sequential growth from last quarter....especially since it doesn't seam they've received any milestone payments under their Novartis or gsk agreements this quarter.
Since the company hasn't issued any guidance, their future revenues and earnings is all a guessing game. So the following only represents some of my guesses...that I consider conservative.
But based on their Fortical royalties of $2M in three weeks last quarter, I am guessing that they should at least be able to post royalties of about $5M this quarter.....and product sales of at least $1.5M. So basically, I'm hoping to see revenue of at least $6M and an EPS of at least 0.03 for this quarter.
While these numbers don't qualify it for discussion as a value microcap, I do expect them to be getting some milestone payments early next year that could give them a value microcap kind of EPS for the quarter ending March of next year.
If you haven't seen my earlier posts, I have found that Fortical is now recommended over Miacalcin in the Aetna and Blue Cross prescription drug formularies. Miacalcin had a U.S. market of $237M last year....and I imagine Aetna and Blue Cross customers could constitute a significant portion of that market. But considering Miacalcin is usually delivered in a three month supply (3 bottles), I'm not expecting to see a significant effect from this in the current quarters numbers....especially considering the royalties are going to cover the period from 9/1/05 through 11/30/05.
But the next quarters numbers should begin to reflect that change in prescription formularies....and I believe revenues should begin to ramp more consistently from there on out.
Good luck in all your investments….and happy New Year to everyone!
"Our houses are such unwieldy property that we are often imprisoned rather than housed in them." - Henry David Thoreau, Walden: Economy, 1854
