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No. This chart is deceptive and intentionally misleading. I think @DewDiligence is the best person to explain why.
The providers have not been kind to Revance and Revance deserves it. But the providers have also shown themselves to be, on average, complete morons who can't figure out what injectors like @soma2022 have. We are not talking about a bright bunch. Daxxify will win when customers start going to the providers who offer it because it's just better.
That's right. Anybody who was needing to exit RVNC soon is in trouble. The cost basis on the shares I currently own—mostly acquired in 2019—is $11.44, but my trade-weighted basis is much lower because I've been trading this name for years. Earlier this year I sold some lots at $37 that I had acquired after the CRL in 2021 around $15. People who have held this stock and not traded it have been burned badly. People who have traded it with good timing have been rewarded handsomely. The key to good timing is understanding the story.
If you're not a fund manager 6-12 months is not exactly a long time horizon. Now that RVNC is trading well below the intrinsic value of its assets, I'd actually like to see it go lower near term because that would set up an opportunity for an extremely high probability of outsized gains. $2 to $10 is the same as $10 to $50.
I completely agree. However, Daxxify is just simply better. In aesthetics it's only a matter of time until providers who don't use Daxxify start losing their customers to those who do.
RVNC hit the ground with way too much confidence and arrogance, but Daxxify is one big celebrity social media post away from a viral moment that forces providers to jump onboard. I'm quite confident whatever medical devices you sold were not things that most patients knew or cared about the brand.
Only the launch of a superior toxin to Daxxify could derail this process and is what I consider the biggest risk to RVNC's long term success, but it's definitely not going to be extra-strength Jeuveau. 😆
You're forgetting that most practices still haven't even had their first impression with Daxxify yet. Only a small number of practices have been burned in the way you say. @soma2022 is making money selling Daxxify so I'm sure he's not too disappointed.
It's not going to hit $0 but it could go to $4 or $2. I'm hoping for $2!!!
As you know, Daxxify is clearly a superior product. The market is being highly irrational right now. I can't see the rights to Daxxify and the manufacturing facilities and RHA licenses being worth less than $1B (~$10/share) in an absolute worst case scenario.
Thus the lower it goes near term the larger the potential for outsized returns later!
$10/share is a laughable worst-case minimum buyout value imo.
I'm now rooting for this to go as low as possible in the near term!
I would be a buyer here if I wasn't already a bagholder—but I'm not going to add at this price due to my concerns over Foley. My cost basis is very low so even at the current price I wouldn't be averaging down much. If Foley is exited I would be a buyer above today's price. If Foley isn't exited I'd consider adding around $5.
Ending the call with "I don't know" was the straw that broke the camel's back for me.
Not knowing the answer is already pathetic, but ending the call on that note is unconscionable.
Foley: "I don't know."
That was how the earnings call ended yesterday. When Foley was asked (twice) if the new price was communicated to RVNC's customers, that was his answer. An absolute disgrace!
I previously defended Foley with the CRL but it's now crystal clear that Foley is not competent to run this company.
Thanks for all your commentary Emannow—you've been one of the best and most accurate sources on this board.
Thankfully Daxxify really is great, despite what the the massive FUD campaign says—although maybe not great enough to overcome Foley's incompetence. Ultimately Foley either needs to turn this ship around soon or the BOD definitely needs to act.
I am holding my position but not adding any more shares until either Foley is replaced or I see a major change in Foley's words and tone. The upcoming investor conference is an opportunity for Foley to do that but I am not optimistic he will. An open market buy from Foley would also go a long way towards restoring confidence, but again I don't see that as likely from him.
I can't recall if you previously revealed the relative weighting of your RVNC and EOLS positions. I think you maybe only went long RVNC recently? Regardless, your bias towards EOLS and against RVNC has been evident. I'm indifferent to what happens to EOLS stock and there's probably sufficient market share to be taken from ABBV for both RVNC and EOLS to do well.
However, my problem with EOLS is that they're promoting intentionally deceitful clinical data to make it appear that double-dose Jeuveau is comparable to Daxxify—which it most certainly is not. As a large EOLS shareholder you're incentivized to believe and spread these false narratives.
See Biotech Values #245275:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171071141
Exactly! The EOLS data is a total sham and it's not even new. It was already released earlier this year and discussed at length. It's unfortunate to see that @soma2022 and @boraborak38 are so easily fooled but that's exactly EOLS' game plan: confuse injectors. It's no match for Daxxify though and the patients will obviously see the difference themselves.
I'm not necessarily expecting formal guidance, but they obviously won't be able to avoid questions about the outlook in the Q&A.
If the outlook is positive there should be some mention in the press release and prepared statements on the call. If the Q&A is the first time we hear about Q4 and beyond that would be bearish.
Partly yes, of course. RVNC is far from the only stock in the toilet. RVNC fundamentals also contributed obviously to the multi-month selloff.
Today's move has nothing to do with RVNC fundamentals or any earnings leak. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is down about 5% after the FOMC meeting yesterday, which is driving long duration assets (like RVNC) higher.
I'm not bullish on Q3 earnings but the market will look past Q3 if the outlook for Q4 and beyond is strong.
As you said, social media is full of glowing reviews for Daxxify.
Volume has been pitiful—and nobody wants to step in to buy money losing small caps at any price with the fear over long bond yields. Clarity on the path of yields and/or Daxi sales growth could cause the stock to be repriced rapidly.
RVNCfan is not a shill but this is exactly why I've been making so much noise about the FUD campaign. FUD is effective! FUD doesn't have to convince you to be effective, it just has to spark doubt and make you uncertain.
Don't be naïve @marthambles. Do you really believe this particular review is honest? This review doesn't even attempt to hide its bias and is pathetic. There are other more credible negative reviews out there than this farce.
This one is clearly a shill (ABBV or otherwise) "review."
The leading of the patient and her facial expressions are instantly discrediting and ridiculous.
I think jbog was suggesting that NVO and LLY will be so flush with cash that they can dominate R&D and M&A—and/or that nearly all future healthcare spending will be allocated to GLP-1. It sounds silly but jbog's take is essentially the market's view. It's analogous to what's been happening in tech with NVDA. If you're buying NVO or LLY at these prices you better hope none of the potential safety problems turn out to be a significant issue—and that everybody everywhere ends up on a GLP-1 forever. This is the clown show I spoke of previously—the market is over-extrapolating, imo, the overall impact of these drugs. The total pharma pie will continue to grow and is large enough for many players.
That's interesting and not what I was expecting. Thanks for your reply.
@Emannow can you confirm this rumor that Taryn Conway has left RVNC?
Thanks. "Analysis" belongs in quotes. They backed into the "analysis" from their PT.
EOLS share price is irrelevant, however we are not that far off from EOLS' enterprise value at this point, which does show how much of a clown show this has become. This is what capitulation looks like—people simply don't want to own this stock at any price. RVNC shot themselves in the foot somewhat by preannouncing in Q1 of this year—now the lack of a preannouncement is tantamount to saying the results are bad. Q3 sales were likely down from Q2. The situation with bond yields is also weighing heavily on all small caps and money losing companies.
Foley needs to be exited. Not because of the collapse in the stock price per se, but because of his profligate spending and tone-deaf response to the annihilation of shareholder value.
I previously defended Foley and felt he was unfairly blamed for problems that were left over from the Dan Browne days. That may or may not be true—Dan Browne certainly made plenty of mistakes—but at this point I think most people here would rather have Dan back vs Mark.
You heard it here first folks. The latest bullish sequela from the Ozempic craze: airline stocks!
😆🙃😉
My reply was about the broader overreaction to GLP-1 drugs.
There will obviously be real impacts—some very significant. I have no knowledge or interest in dialysis companies so I can't speak to that specifically.
As Dew mentioned, the clown show is the over extrapolation of the data, not the data itself—as well as the herd mentality exhibited by most fund managers. Peloton stock was up today on this news.
It's gotten a bit ridiculous that every new data point about GLP-1 causes this kind of overreaction. We know that GLP-1 drugs cause people to lose weight and being overweight has broad implications.
Given the above there's really an endless number of successful studies you could run with these drugs. How about a study to determine if Ozempic improves this guy's mile time. Buy NKE?
That's definitely one of the factors weighing on the stock today. However, Morgan Stanley sell-side analysis is worse than worthless. They also happen to be shills for ABBV.
Their PT update is also meaningless because they obviously can't have a hold rating on a stock and a PT 2.5x the current price. There's no actual new research from them as far as I'm aware.
It's a clown show. Reminds me of when Zoom video became a $150B company because "vid chat."
The market loves stories and right now the story is that being overweight is so 2010's.
It's obvious that being overweight impacts just about every health metric. I'm not sure how many more of these studies NVO and LLY can parade around before the market tires of the same story being repackaged over and over.
Don't forget the impact to food stocks like PEP and KO.
Also impacting aesthetics companies like RVNC imo—the narrative being that people would rather use their money for weight loss copays or self-pay than toxins.
This is what capitulation looks like.
Can you clarify what you mean by "IMHO" with regards to this. Is this your opinion or confirmed by RVNC sales reps? Thanks!
[OT] Classic iHub interface no longer shows thumbs up on the post list page. With the switch to support for universal emoji tagging of posts you can now see these tags in classic view on the post itself, or from the list of posts in the "Full View" beta interface. I'm disappointed because I still prefer Classic view but do find it helpful to see from the post list page which posts have garnered thumbs up (which is itself still a new feature here).
Bio_pete, please see message number 4651 on this board.
Emannow, check out this practice I shared a FB post from earlier. They openly advertise their Daxxify unit price on their website. Hopefully this post doesn't get them in trouble with their sales rep!
If your sales contract says you can't advertise price then in theory Revance could sue you. More likely is they would just stop selling to you. Most likely is that they do absolutely nothing about it.
https://www.jmarieskinstudio.com/injectables