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conference call notes and timeframes.
for those looking to learn more about this company beyond a short term trade - the CC below is the best place to start. for the first 5-10 minutes - there were numerous callers trying to disrupt the call (laughing, making animal noises, pushing buttons everytime Bill spoke, etc). you have to skip through that. very good information there. i almost hung up. i then skipped forward until it was just bill speaking and realized they figured it out. i then skipped back until it was just him.
i would then suggest reading the biz plan on the website and comparing it to your CC notes. then consider what has happened SINCE the CC and then make an informed decision whether this is a typical P&D OTC or whether the company has found a true niche to exploit and are executing appropriately.
finally - i would suggest listen to Bill's tone and the MANNER he answers questions in as much as what he actually says. if you have listened/spoke to a lot of the OTC CEOs/IR people - many sound like car salesman and trying to talk over or around you and never really answering anything directly. Bill seemed to do the exact opposite. asking to make sure he answered the question. he also, numerous times, emphasized the long term approach and how this wasnt all going to happen overnight or even within a year. he cautioned against those expectations several times. not the normal pie in the sky everything is coming up roses BS to get people to buy in with a sense of urgency.
DJknows Monday, 02/01/16 12:14:36 PM
Re: KINGMADE post# 65869
Post # of 65875
The number if anyone wants to hear that CC is 712-775-7029, then you have to enter the code 865-018-462 # ...
The first 10 min. is nonsense before they figured out how to mute and then a lot of great info for over an hour. There are prompts when you first call telling you how you can fast forward or back up.
Might need to press another # ... just listen to the prompts.
I realize it may be too long for some (close to 90min. - you can fast forward pressing 6) but the latter part and even close to end is where there's more numbers and detail imho
Quote:Holy smokes this company is going from looking great to looking freaking AWESOME
Just like Mr. McKay tweeted HighStakesGamble, TPAC IS NO ORDINARY OTC! I would dare add, Mr. Bill McKay is NO ORDINARY CEO!
"waterchaser Member Level Thursday, 01/28/16 09:15:56 PM
Re: wash3 post# 64635
Post # of 64669
The only thing "huge" is TPAC's inability to generate revenue."
horribly disingenuous since they only started revenue producing operations in 12/15. the biz plan laid 4Q15 out as expectations for beginning of revenue operations over a year ago and that is when they got started on their first, larger PO.
you cant produce revenues in this realm until you are certified and certification is a long and arduous process. as it ought to be. unless you prefer to pay $50/flight from LA to Maui with the understanding you have a high probability of catastrophic failure due to lack of quality/FEA testing.
"So "momo" is the key? Not strong fundamentals or solid management? Got it...that explains why the CEO tries to fuel the "momo" with pump tweets. "Momo" is the only thing TPAC has going for it? Got it... what a great plan. To hell with everything we learned in business school, that ain't important... the "momo" is all that matters. Who cares that there's no viable business here."
i didnt go to business school (engineering instead) but what i have learned from being out in the business world and business i have owned/been involved with - the most critical element is a sound business plan and then executing the plan while adapting and evolving as fundamentals change. if one looks at the business plan laid out by TPAC over a year ago and then looks at the ongoing announcements and relative events since - it could be easily construed as they are executing that business plan and entering the stage of exponential growth they were targeting starting in 4Q15 (as laid out in the plan).
what else did biz school teach you?
"But then Johnson was busted by the SEC before he could file the false financials for HJOE. So now HJOE's is stuck. They were hoping to file fake audits but their auditor has been busted so now what?"
there last several filings were abysmal for shareholders (due to various reasons - mainly PLN shutting down production/inventory which all came out in the suit). what false financials are you insinuating they were trying to file? the shareholders i speak with certainly werent expecting anything great back in 2014 or beginning of 2015 as they really didnt start producing product again in until late 2014 and didnt ramp up both brands until 2015. what numbers were they going to falsify?
i am not happy about no filings but i am less happy that they were forced into toxic debt by PLN screwing up labels/production. of course, that is all fabricated too according to many on this board but there is plenty of evidence of these issues that are documented elsewhere with other companies (production issues, false claims about capabilities, not producing product as claimed). one can start with a simple google search on PLN and the Dr. Oz show that provides a litany of reading to do some DD on PLN and then make an objective judgment of the validity of HJOEs claims/counter claims.
so again - what false information do you think they wanted Johnson to file? who picked/recommended him as the auditor?
"There isn't any plausible reason for the delay. "
except the SEC shutting him down.
who recommended the auditor to the company? did they just pick him out of the phone book? how would they know who to go to? i am more interested in how they ended up with him. however, that certainly doesnt fit the narrative.
we shareholders are supposed to be scared senseless about delistings, non filings, SEC sanctions, etc. etc. etc. however, instead we are seeing more and more dealers pop up, product showing up in more and more stores, regular Joes investing their own money because they see the potential of the brand, etc. why is there such a disconnect between what is regurgitated day in and day out on this board and in stores across the country...?
if i remember the PR correctly - the announcement about the 30K stores was not that the product was in 30K stores but their distributors that signed contracts with HJOE had over 30K stores. BIG DIFFERENCE. however, lets not let facts get in the way of a good smear and language gymnastics.
carry on.
What. ..?
"They could be suspended - especially if someone takes the time to file a detailed report with the SEC. "
With all of the vitriol on this board spewed against the company and mgmt and NONE of you have filed a detailed complaint against the company with the SEC...? Why not? If it is so cut and dried and you are benevolent protectors of unsuspecting shareholders - why not file the complaint...? That certainly doesnt pass the smell test.
And i said it doesnt change the value of the company. I acknowledged the shares would drop upon trading resuming but that still doesnt change the fundamental value of the company in the lng term. Those holders that see that (whether existent or not) would just become aggressive buyers and offset the drop. Since the toxic lenders cant aggressively short to maniplate the share price down - the drop would be mitgated.
Guess time is about running out.
But - good try...
"James885, are you suggesting HJOE stopped filing so they did not have to issue stock promised in debt agreements?"
No I was not suggesting that, or anything else."
Maybe you missed my immediate correction. It wasnt on Pacer when I had the attorney look after i read the board comments. Not sure when it went live on Pacer but it wasnt on there when it was commented on here. Someone is getting sloppy.
As far as 10 day suspension - i dont believe that is imminent. Nothing to justify it without an official warning prior. Regardless - a suspension doesnt change the value of the shares - just restricts the ability to trade. Will the price tank once the restrictions is lifted - probably. However - my guess is a large majority of the shares are now in strong hands that w9nt be spooked by a suspension - especially if the lack of filing is actually protecting them from abusive trading/conversion/manipulation.
I d9nt need any lessons. I bought the majority of my shares at 0.0002-0.0004 when everyone said the sky was falling. Dealers popping p everywhere with their own SM sites, still being promoged by LTCG, etc. Im ok with the strategy
sorry - meant "Pacer" and not "Edgar" as far as the legal filings...
digging pretty deep for anything to smear the company with this one:
"HJOE shareholders should look at this recent suspension by the SEC
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/suspensions/2016/34-76860-o.pdf
Look at the dates. They are remarkably close to the delinquency of HJOE...and suggest that the old "two year" rule is no longer something to be counted on."
the shareholders i speak with arent really concerned about the lack of filing or information flow from the company. i wont speak for any of those outside of the ones i have. shareholders can contact the company and follow the proceedings via social media. those that believe there is a real company, brand, and story seem to be satisfied with the progress and believe the results will show through. since i am an investor and not a trader - a 10 day suspension really doesnt faze me. nor would a month.
i will patiently wait to see how they deal with current suit and if they can finally get the toxic lenders out of the picture once and for all to continue unfettered growth and execution of their strategy.
btw - just curious how members on this board had details of original suit before it was filed on Edgar...? there were specific details posted on here that were in the suit that werent yet publicly available thru Edgar.
X1000 - i specifically DIDNT provide any opinion one way or the other as to not poison the well/inject bias. several things stood out for me. however, i would suggest you listen to the call first and then compare what has happened in the last 6 months since. after that - come back and we can discuss pros and cons.
it is a long call so give yourself time. also - the first 5-10 minutes is full of interruptions and callers trying to disrupt the call. you should be able to hit *6 to skip forward but the instructions prior to goign to the recorded material will tell you how to skip forward or back in one minute increments. i would suggest listening to those opening minutes just to get an understanding of the time that some are going to disrupt/discredit the company/CEO. it is somewhat eye opening.
"Can u tell us what things stood out at you
Was it good or bad
You have confidence in our ceo?
Il check the call later "
If one listens to the CC, reads the company biz plan, and looks at current approved company/suppliers for NAVAIR certification and the penalty for using non chinese suppliers - the below is rather obvious:
"Why would AVIC need TPAC's help for anything? Bill McKay is either clueless or a total con man. What expertise and experience does TPAC bring to the table? They've never sold anything ever. TPAC has zero experience. This pumping makes me laugh."
AVIC does not have access to these NAVAIR certified, self lubricated bearings and TPAC is the ONLY company in China that does. using non Chinese based companies when a Chinese supplier is available results in @ 30% import tax. this goes straight to the bottom line. why self impose that cost when a certified supplier is available and can produce...?
where is teh expertise? again - addressed in detail on CC and in biz plan. these arent simple roller bearings with races, cages, and rolling elements. there is a certain degree of difficulty which few have been able to perfect or taken teh time/investment to do so with matching up the liner and bearing material (which gives it the self lubricating property and thus - maintenance free). TPAC was able to do so in under 4 years. CEO also address the IP component being "protected" in the chinese manufacturing. the liner comes from California and is not matched up in any way with the company/part so it would be near impossible for industrial espionage to steal the "process." if one looks through the backgrounds/work experience of the insiders, it speaks to the experience in bearings and aerospace.
long story short, these guys found a major gap in the supply chain in the quickly accelerating aerospace industry in china and were able to exploit that gap through existing experience/know how. why others have chosen NOT to exploit that gap was also addressed in terms of most major bearing manufactures already have protected areas of high margin/single supply components where the time and expense of a somewhat "commodity" component did not make sense from a ROCE standpoint. there have been companies working on NAVAIR certification for 15+ years that have not been able to get it to work. no chinese companies have been able to get the certification.
coming back to AVIC - they need these parts as part of their overal supply chain agreement/future agreement with Boeing (and others). if they can source within China and forego the import duty - they immediately have a 30% cost advantage over competitors not to mention what should be a significantly shorter delivery time since locally sourced.
is this a guarantee - absolutely not. is this still speculative - absolutely. many things can disrupt the plans, failed part in early production run with catastrophic lawsuit, partners deciding to pull the plug, etc. etc. but stocks are traded on risk/reward and future earnings. risk has systematically been eliminated from the stock as it transitions from R&D to Production. any acquisition provides immediate revenues and when looking specifically in that region where the companies are already connected - it makes sense for both entities: private companies get to "monetize" their long term, illiquid investment in their company and still maintain some control through employment agreements/positions inside the acquiring company. the acquiring company gets immediate revenue increase, direct access to those customers/markets, and built in supply "history" for future RFQs and supply agreements.
CEO addressed this later last month that they were working on PO and expected it completed shortly.
"Again I ask, has the 100k order been filled yet? Bill never filled a 9k order so just curious how the 100k order is going. Who gives a shit about forward looking hype. What about actual PO's in house. Is it completed?"
9K order was prior addressed as well for being prototype/testing parts where the agreement was terminated.
the conference call is long - between 90-120 min between his "prepared remarks" and then the ensuing Q&A. it is exasperated by the attempts to disrupt it. when i first tried listening to the replay (i wasnt available during the original CC), i hung up until i read a note from a fellow investor that told me that there were 5-10 minutes of nonsense before they figured out they needed to mute the lines.
for those serious about evaluating TPAC as an investment or even a short term trade, you will do yourself a great service by listening to the prior conference call. the replay is available at:
712-775-7029 and use access code 865-018-462 when asked to enter.
the first several minutes are completely useless as numerous callers are purposely disrupting the call. once the "all callers on mute" is figured out - it becomes productive.
what i suggest is listening to this call (taped last June/July) and actually listening to the answers the CEO has and the MANNER in which he responds to them. if you havent listed to many investor conference calls - there wont be any basis for comparative purposes but if you have listened to hundreds or more like i have - it may provide a more informed opinion on the CEO and his credibility (or lack thereof)
next - consider what has happened SINCE the conference call and closely compare the timetables, the expectations, the cautions, etc. i re-listened to the call yesterday morning on a long stretch of driving and several things really stuck out.
i will leave it at that. listen to the call. compare notes, timetables, expectations, etc. form your OWN opinion on the credibility of the CEO/company. it might give you a much different perspective/appreciation of what is going on with the company and better help put all of the "noise" on these message boards and elsewhere in perspective. somewhere in between all of the ridiculous price predictions on the high side and all of the "price is going to $0.0001" / "CEO is a crook" comments on the negative side is reality.
understand the risk/reward of ANY investment and more importantly, how it fits in YOUR risk profile. know whether you are a short term trader or long term investor in any stock. if you intuitively understand the distinctions between the above, then the phrase "know what you own" becomes much more meaningful and allow you to take emotion and noise out of decisions and instead focus on strategy and fundamentals.
i quickly scanned over several hundred posts over the last two weeks and did not see ONE post (i may have missed some) that had ANYTHING relevant to what the company does, has done, or plans to do. most got the 8K wrong about CEO resigning (it was the COB that resigned). further, while the OS is low, there is a large amount of CD that converted in December and will be coming due in March and then later this summer. so - the OS is probably significantly higher than the 304MM stated on here.
i have followed this company for several years when they originally were touting their Mach5 internet accelerator for mobile devices and have followed them through their gyrations to mobile computing and then to lottery sales. always the same old cycles. i originally bought in around $0.50 or $0.60 and quickly got out when the ensuing 10Q did NOT show the promise that the PRs and messaging was put out. i made a couple of trades in the $0.20-$0.30 range and then again when it was in the $0.01-0.03 range and have stayed out until recently when i did get some BIDs filled at $0.0002. the company has no product, no revenue streams, a history of failed "launches" in "hot" sectors (take mobile computing and their CCSmartWatch as an example), and failed acquisitions (which took back off their books the only significant revenues they ever had after they failed to meet basic milestones).
all of that being said, and i could provide links, articles, copy & paste from SEC filings - it will not prevent the masses from piling on and running this up before all trying to get out the door first. since i know the game and understand the mechanics, i decided to play along. ironically, i already made back my original loss on the first trades due to the volatile nature these trading ranges produce. however, i am pretty sure i will see 5-10x my money based on a couple fluff PRs the company will put out to boost the stock price and set up the company for an increase in AS prior to the next round of CD coming due.
unless China changes their current freeze on online lottery sales - this company has NOTHING going and they SPECIFICALLY state that in their last filing (that they ceased all other operations to focus on online lottery sales and they dont know when or if they will be able to resume). now, there could be insiders that know the policy is about to be reverse/lifted and thus are buying aggressively ahead of this but that would be the rare coincidence in the trip land. however, despite all of the DD put in front of the board, it still will be ignored and caviar dreams will replace them.
good luck. i will be selling some of you my shares briefly down the road.
partynm - this may have been previously asked/answered already but how often is that revision schedule revised from the link you provided below? I deal with a mix of .gov and commericial OEM entities for approvals, certifications, and approved status and some get these updated very fast (within days/week of verbal/written approval to the supplier) and others can take months and months to update their official "list". revision on Boeing link is 12/3/15. If TPAC got the verbal OK and/or got it in writing just this week - when would it realistically show up on that list with respect to updating? i agree with the rest of your post and do appreciate the intent, content, and lack of bias one way or the other.
"The company can play down or spin off NADCAP qualifications all they want. The fact still remains, until their name shows up on the Bearing Authorized Distributors list in the link below they will not be a distributor for Boeing. For the record, Boeing and all of the other aircraft manufactures supply vendors with this information so that individuals like myself can verify who we can order parts for larger assemblies from. As an example; there is bidding going on for the manufacture of a major sub-assembly for Boeing's 777X platform, I can not obtain the bearings required for this project from Trans-Pacific because they are not listed on the link below. Now we can talk about AS 9100 and ISO 9001 if it wants to be debated on whether they need these certification or not.
http://active.boeing.com/doingbiz/d14426/bfmanuf.cfm?Type_cd=B "
so you believe that is their plan - to go back private?
Heliguy53 Wednesday, 01/06/16 10:55:37 AM
Re: thesmalls post# 92178
Post # of 92190
going private yes it is their plan
The lower the PPS the lower the buyout thus better for the scam to work for owners ultimate plan.
if the R/s is positive with respect to fixing the share structure - why wouldnt those that see it as a positive be buying aggressively on the ASK while the shares are still "cheap"...? 550MM shares on the BID at $0.0002 and 36MM on the ASK at $0.0003. why wait if you believe in the company/intentions of mgmt?
unfortunately, the mgmt has a rather dismal history with following through for shareholders and they are not being assigned any premium on "faith." on the flip side, they could R/s, restructure the debt, and take it private while it market cap is still very low (if they do finally have real distribution/retail deals in place).
i have had BIDs in for last two weeks at $0.0002 and none filled. obviously everyone is not running for the doors but they arent exactly running away from them either. i do agree that if the company is not looking to take private AND are doing this for legit reasons (which is very questionable at best), it WOULD be in their best interest (and shareholders) to get the share price up prior to R/s and explain the reasons for doing so. when they refuse to discuss/acknowledge - it is better to assume the reasons are contrary to outside investors.
with 300K on the ASK at $0.0003 and two 10Ks from VFIN and NITE - it took 11 partial fills to fill the 500K order i put in at $0.0003. i was expecting it to fill instantly but took a little awhile. wasnt near as many shares hiding as i thought on the ASK and there were numerous (6) 10Ks to "fill" the remaining order. found that to be interesting and thought i would share.
right now i am looking at the shares i have purchased at $0.0002-0.0003 over the last couple of weeks as a short term play unless the company comes out of the quiet period and address shareholders. history is not on their side and if they are finally ready to break out - they certainly are not allowing shareholders in on their plans.
more looks like a play to take private. wouldnt cost much right now to do so.
why the negativity towards the clay videos...?
"TPAC - No one wants to see your sorry Monday night quarterbacking video.Stop your Spam."
first - it isnt SPAM in any of the traditional senses of SPAM but that is besides the point. lets assume that the videos ARE as influential as some suggest. if they are - why not take advantage of the information and join the herd in and out of trades? even if you are a long term investor in a particular stock he portrays - take a small trading position and profit from the information instead of lambasting it.
if it is NOT influential - whats the point?
i realize there is a very wide audience in terms of investing styles and more importantly experience, but one really needs to understand the difference between tradition buy and hold investing (or to a different degree - value investing) and simple trading. traders do NOT care about the general fundamentals past the point of the ability to get in and out of a position safely with an acceptable amount of risk. volatility is their friend and without it - they can not profit on a stock moving up or down. period. TA is simply looking at the probability of a stock reacting one way or the other based on traders mentality on risk/reward on a particular stock moving and relative to the volatility inherent in the movement. it has been embraced by short term and day traders and they are generally all following very similar buy and sell signals which creates the herd mentality and injects significant volatility across all of the markets.
however, this volatility also provides liquidity and exposure to many companies that would never be looked at by normal investors across the spectrum of company size (take Facebook - how many investors ignored it due to it tanking massively on the IPO and then considered a position based on the precipitous drop...?) i have found his videos to be rather informative, non biased, and pretty "pure" with respect to reading charts and trying to understand how and why volatile stocks move the way they do. any new trader who plans on actively trading should understand this movement and i think his videos are a great place to start.
as far as investors in TPAC - if you truly are a long term investor - these sell offs based purely on the charts provide excellent buying opportunities (the dips) to increase position, remove shares from the float, as you wait for the long term payoff. while the long term trend and expected information flow remains extremely bullish - why be concerned about the daily fluctuations or gyrations when the overall trend is up? specifically, if one really believes this is going into pennies or beyond - these moves are ridiculously trivial. the only time this activity becomes abusive or manipulative - is when dilution is running rampant and one is driving the price one way or the other with thoughts/opinions that are directly contrary to the positions they are opening and closing. that certainly happens EVERY DAY on here and in the OTC world. having someone point out the statistical probability of a stock reacting one way or the other is not manipulative. if he is right more than he is wrong - again, why not follow the crowd, not be greedy, and make some profit?
i rarely "trade" stocks and usually am a long term investor and look for small companies that have something unique to offer their respective industries or markets. i found TPAC through a friend and originally started a position based on his recommendation (at $0.0006) and then started following it closely. when volume started picking up dramatically and it looked like accumulating was occurring and the dilution had stopped, i started aggressively buying in the $0.0003-0.0004 range (as i have stated several times on here). throughout, i have been looking into the company, claims, proprietary (semi) offering, and examining the follow up by the CEO. he has been rather methodical in timelines and releasing information as he has committed to.
getting NAVAIR certification is a very long, expensive process (which is why there are just over a handful of companies with it). being the only one in China gives them a unique position in the marketplace and with his (and other BOD members) relationships from prior companies certainly gives them the fasttrack in developing the supplier/customer relationship that can usually take 1-4 years before real discussion on supply ever take place. from the filings and official correspondence, the insiders have put up significant capital to make this work which is rarely discussed on here or the deferred/no compensation by the CEO for the last several years. i take foregoing a salary as basic business sense if you are loaning the company and then paying yourself back - can be somewhat pointless but that is depending on one's tax situation.
several posters have thrown out "know what you own" on this board and others. this idea is moot for traders and easy fodder for manipulators. however, if one is truly a long term investors, it might be the simplest lesson you can ever learn. if you have done your DD, the capital employed fits your specific risk/reward profile, and the company fundamentals havent changed and/or are improving - the rest IS noise and the markets tend to be ruthlessly efficient in the end (toxic lending being a major exception as that can quickly destroy legit entities that do not realize the destructive nature or have to turn to it as a last resort means).
the CEO has made some rather specific and legally binding statements via Twitter that have every bit as much legal bite as filing a SEC document (both civilly and criminally) and moreso since the company has officially and repeatedly acknowledged Twitter is an/the official source for PR/numbers.
in my experience in the markets and using every interaction as a learning experience, i have found that those who are MOST successful in investing are long term value investors at heart with a high risk profile and have used short term trading to maximize their overall profits by taking advantage of the increased volatility in the markets over the last 10-15 years as TA becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and continues to increase volatility and trading opportunities that were much fewer and further between prior. the advent of the internet and electronic/online trading has certainly added dramatically to that volatility but it is the access to more sophisticatedtrading algorithms by the average/new investor that has really driven the changes in the way stocks are traded.
learn the difference between informative posters and persuasive ones and that will dramatically speed up your learning curve and eventually increase your profitability in trading/investing.
MMs would like to thank all the traders who are helping them close the enormous short position that had been building the last week and a half as the buying momentum was strong. they couldnt have covered without you.
where are all the big talkers who were going to be buying aggressively? price is being clearanced and you should be taking advantage of it.
just another day of volatility and market mechanics in the OTC world. for long term investors, this will be all white noise if/when company executes on business plan/strategy. company needs to continue to win POs and show clear line of site towards earlier revenue projections. if/when they do, valuation will line up with true potential. until then, it will remain volatile.
i dont see the price staying down long as the potential will still provide premium for the speculation that the company will continue to execute.
"Tell Bill to Tweet the reason he has GAGGED the TPAC T/A"
no need to ASK Bill on Twitter. just follow the thread. he specifically answered it - twice.
paraphrasing: the request process was being abused with non shareholders calling multiple times per day and driving up costs and harassing the TA. any shareholder on record can request and get current OS/AS share count.
so easy - even a Caveman can do it...
You had me at Occam's razor... :)
Happy New Year
wow - so much misinformation, subterfuge, and purposely misleading information being thrown across the last couple of weeks.
on the debt/deficit - that was already addressed by several posters but there is a material and specific difference as i am sure the poster who incessantly posts this is well aware. actual debt needs to be paid back and the company paid a significant portion of that back including and most importantly - the convertible debt. that is not discussed as it does not fit the narrative. when the upcoming 10K is released with 4Q15 results - that will become obvious for those that actually read filings. the deficit is retained and will be used to offset future profits (assuming they materialize) and will mitigate/offset tax liability until they are utilized as such. the company is NOT in debt $20MM. without revenue stream - how would they even service that debt load for 12-24 months without a constant source of loan capital...? obviously doesnt make sense.
revenues - the company was rather clear and specific about when it expected to commence revenues and it was 12/15. tada - it is starting. obviously they wouldnt be showing revenues prior to start of mfg. more importantly - the misleading connotation that they have never had revenues as an example of fraud. one needs to understand the process of starting from scratch (essentially) in the mfg world and then understand NAVAIR specs/testing to understand the length and expense of the process. one doesnt just turn out a bearing in a week and send FED EX and get it certified a week later. it is a very long and involved process due to cyclical failure tests that are critical when lives are on the line. these are not run of the mill failure analysis tests. they go well beyond which require signifacntly more time to run the tests, analyze the parts, evaluate the data, and adjust, retool, manufacture, and then start the process again. this takes significant time and money when there is NO REVENUE production to offset costs. where does capital come from to complete/conduct these tests? private investors, insiders, and outside debt (which a portion was convertible). if one reads the comprehensive business strategy - this is laid out including where the money came from, time frames, and expected outcomes.
capital - this remains a question as some have rightfully asked. while the company has filed 8Ks showing completed share purchases/retiring, ithas not addressed where the capital is comping from to buyback shares. are insiders providing the capital/providing additional loans? is the company taking on new debt? is it traditional or toxic? etc. these remain viable questions and concerns. if private capital from existing insiders - these do not require specific filing and can be included in quarterly filings/10K. if new investors or outside capital - they would require an 8K. that is a legitimate concern/question and one of the few that i have seen on this or other boards that hasnt been muddled with misinformation to sell a narrative.
i addressed the MM shorting previously. those intra day short numbers are important when considering the short term price action and volume. the MMs do have to return those shares at some point and they will continue to inject volatility into the trading to induce a market while also trying to profit. somewhere in that process, they need to cover these positions. they can continue to short and cover higher (with new short positions) unlike a retail short but if the buying continues at current pace, the price will continue to escalate.
twitter and social media remains a viable alternative/acceptable dissemination process per teh SEC. period. it is well documented on the SEC site. google SEC social media dissemination and it will take you right there. using SM is more direct and less expensive than traditional PRs. for the lower level info being provided - why as a shareholder - would you spend $1000 when you can tweet/facebook it for free? save the larger, higher impact "news" for traditional PRs (like major contracts of several million, major strategic alliances, etc). why PR you bought back 200MM shares when you are muddling along in the OTC world where it is buy on rumor sell on the news...?
as far as the TA being gagged - Bill addressed that via Twitter as have others. every request cost the company money. it is like calling the attorney - there are no free calls. one can inundate the TA at no cost to them (as a detractor trying to wreak havoc) but drive up the cost to the company/shareholders. as a long term investor - do you really need to check the OS every day? further - if you are a long term investor, are you going to accept a tweet directly from CEO saying what new OS/AS is? if you dont believe him - you should be an "investor." since the company/CEO is speaking to investors and not the daytraders - why does he care whether or not they are updated every 30 minutes? when the TA process is abused, there is certainly a good reason to gag the TA to prevent runaway expense.
if one is simply trading this - most of this is meaningless as you will simply follow the charts, trends, and momentum and the rest is virtually useless. if one is looking at this as a mid to long term play -then this becomes pertinent and one needs to understand the various factions at play on boards such as these and process accordingly. traders need volume and volatility - in either direction. investors need consistent and systematic price appreciation over time. those are two, fundamentally different mechanisms and strategies. throw in the murky world of OTC stocks and understanding that most companies in this realm have no real plan and/or are shells - and it is easy to cherry pick data points and lump TPAC in with the rest.
if/when the company addresses the capital constraints and/or shows the inflow in next filing along with revenues from announced orders - that will become a moot point. right now, demand is being driven on speculation that the company IS succeeding with their business plan/strategy and they will be successful. the stock is getting a premium based on that belief and the negatives are currently being discounted. if company hits anywhere in the million range in revenues for 2016 - current share price is ridiculously low considering continued buyback and announcements that company will continue past the announced 1.8BB. on a P/s basis alone it could be trading at $0.05 assuming final OS gets down to the 1-1.5BB with 300MM locked up with insiders. PE basis is way too soon to assume.
from a market cap standpoint - assuming 1.5BB OS in 2016, $1/share is not reasonable as is $0.50. If they hit their Year 1 target of $5MM - at a 20-50 growth multiple being applied on a Price/Sales basis - that still gives a market cap of $100MM to $250MM. if the OS was closer to 1BB and they hit $5MM year one - then $0.25 could be considered reasonable albeit lofty. if contracts were posted and guidance given that Year 2 estimates were attainable - then $0.25 becomes reasonable in a P/s basis. for now - it is a pipe dream (not to say the irrational OTC spike wont reach $0.10-$0.20 and then quickly tank).
right now, the company needs to show revenues have commenced, show a clear path towards their stated revenue targets, and then follow up with 10Q/10Ks showing those revenues have been booked, contracts in place and being worked on, and then let investors extrapolate the results and employ their own multiples to determine fair value. right now - the market is suggesting the share price is below fair value as it continues to increase and BID up. based on announcements, buybacks, and positive speculation that plan is being followed and on track - i would expect this to trade some where in the $0.01-0.02 range once new contracts/partnerships are announced combined with acquisition activity. again - that requires capital which is either going to come with traditional debt or financed through shares which will alter the P/s models.
for those of you that have trouble reading past two lines - you wont have made it this far anyway. for those of you that are new and trying to figure all of this out and not be left fleeced or disenfranchised with the who process - hope this helps.
now that KBM has made it official - i guess we will get to see how costly/lengthy that litigation will be. why did they wait so long to file? what offers were made by either party prior to filing? i think this will become interesting and more of a non factor like we saw from PLN with respect to negative outcome to HJOE. many were lamenting the $500K+ that HJOE was going to owe PLN and that didnt happen.
i will be interested to see what offers were made to settle from both sides and where "good faith" comes into play before, during, and after the contract/settlement negotiations.
"janice shell Member Level Tuesday, 06/23/15 05:10:34 PM
Re: thesmalls post# 30415
Post # of 39434
And what is the penalty for that breach?
What are the damages from said breach?
Was the breach deliberate or out of their hands (force majeure)?
All that might be addressed in expensive and lengthy litigation.
So many people vastly overestimate the amount of shorting done in the OTC marketplace"
"What shorts?"
FINRA intra day numbers show 40-70% of the volume the last week and a half (since the price and volume started accelerating) short. MMs got behind and have been playing catch up. unlike a retail short, they can continue to borrow without a margin call and eventually catch up/balance out with a major price correction where they can then cover the imbalance. if it continues along this trajectory - they will continue to get tougher and tougher.
first of month/end of last month the intra day was a mere fraction of the total and the following was typical:
20151202|TPAC|180,000|0|9,899,460|O
big difference from the percentage short seen the last week and a half like volume today:
20151230|TPAC|45,536,236|0|72,505,945|O
again, they will eventually balance these out but at what price will a correction occur large enough for the cover? with the buyback continuing to add to the buy side - it isnt favorable.
i know. i know. these numbers mean nothing. yada yada yada. (until they do)
"Where are all the rich guys who were going to buy 1,3,5 and 10 million shares?" i pretty much asked the same thing albeit in a longer post.
that being said, MAXM has been on the BID with an offer of 5MM at $0.002 for the last 10-15 minutes and no sellers have taken it out. that remains rather bullish.
"Penny players are like lemmings." i would agree to the degree they use/rely solely on charting/TA to make decisions. if you are a true chartists and only a trader (buy the charts) - they you MUST be a lemming or you will be a bagholder. unless you happen to come up with an algorithm that is more advanced than current ones employed and allows you to predict inflection points AHEAD of current charting techniques (that is where the big money is made). charting/day trading has nothing to do with long term fundamentals and is all about the ability to get in and out on volume before the next/last guy does. it is mostly a self fulfilling prophecy and is perpetuated/exacerbated when you can get large groups of people to buy into it and/or follow the same threads/stocks and cause the buying/selling imbalance to create movement that stirs interest. it is neither bad nor good depending on methods employed.
it does provide significant liquidity and allows OTC companies to move up the food chain and gain real leverage in share price if there is a real story/potential behind the company/stock. most in the OTC/penny realm do NOT have legitimate potential and thus most traders are disciplined to ignore hype, negative comments, etc and strictly go by the charts and take emotion, blue skies, or falling skies out of the equation.
as far as the long posts - i am mostly an investor of stocks and do my own DD well past a screen shot summary of the share structure and trading history. i am an engineer by degree and have a lot of familiarity with bearings though most of it is on the industrial/manufacturing/commercial side and not aviation. for those really wanting to know about a company and potential and how other investors are fairly evaluating potential - it takes more than one or two lines to do so.
where is all the buying...?
posts all weekend and since market closed early on the 24th about buying and looking for shares. shares are available and waiting there on the BID at $0.002 and have been. if one believes the share price is going to pennies or beyond - what difference does $0.0001 make (or $0.0004) if looking to add/establish a position prior? if one really believed that - why wait until a run/major gap up when you really would be chasing shares? really eliminates credibility in your opinions/passion when shares are put out there and not taken that are well off the highs on the 24th.
i purchased the majority of my shares in the $0.0003-0.0004 range and then some in the $0.0005-0.0006 and then $0.0009-0.0011 after it dropped from its first spike. i hold a solid 7 figure amount and will leave it at that. i am still not convinced on the long term due to the past and lack of clarity on where/how the company is currently being capitalized. however, the company on paper/PR has done what it said it was going to do back from the June time frame and it does appear they are poised to capitalize on an acquistion that Bill has been referencing since. they are getting money from somewhere to do the buyback and the acquisition certainly makes sense to provide scale and "history" for future contracts.
i am not buying shares right now because i still believe it is going to be very volatile and there will be a mass sell off after news this week and news first week of january that Bill committed to. i will look to buy then and/or if the MMs push it down hard prior (like it appears they are trying to now). the MMs have been increasing short positions for the last week and looks like they have been caught upside down. unlike a retail short - they can continue to do so for a long time and eventually cause a sell off to cover and mitigate their losses.
i also have no intent on selling either prior to better understanding that change in direction he was alluding to. due to my really low cost basis and it being well under key, fundamental support levels - i have the luxury of time (that and i mostly invest and rarely trade). the buyback is and continues to happen, he has commented on continuing it as of this morning past the 1.8BB (which 900MM have already been bought back), and i expect there will be details on the influx of capital in the 10K due 3/30. that suggests a ramp up of business well beyond the initial $100K PO that was announced.
that being said - $0.01/share is easily hit in the irrational OTC markets but that still puts market cap at $20MM on $100K in "verified" forward revenues (assuming OS gets down to around 2BB shares) that is not realistic. however, if it gets down to 1.5BB and they acquire a company doing $15-20MM in revenues (through stock swap, offering, partner capitalization) then all of a sudden $0.01 is ridiculously cheap at 1x sales. this is where the speculation gets extremely interesting. buying a relatively small private firm gives those owners a chance to monetize their business and still have a longer term investment/financial gain with the new entity (happens a lot in reverse mergers or using shells to create value through monetization). this is where i am surprised the buying hasnt been more steady.
i do realize that most on this forum are strictly traders and follow charts which take none of the real DD into consideration. however, for those claiming to be long term and truly believing valuation is pennies and beyond - why wait to buy when the shares are already on super clearance shelf...? and if waiting for the expected sell offs on news - why not continue to average in as a hedge in case the sell offs do not materialize?
if i had a better understanding/gut of where the money was coming from for the buyback/acquisitions - i would be buying aggressively now. even if they use 500MM shares for the acquisition - share price (with new share structure maybe around 1.7-2.5BB shares) would still be cheap if entity acquired was doing $10-20MM in revenues, had positive net income (on GAAP basis), and already had strategic contracts at companies that company is currently working with/courting. Bill being asked to speak at some of those forums does suggest a deeper relationship and industry respect so that provides credence to his strategy/business plan and the ability to capitalize the buyback and acquisitions.
Wow - both sides busy all night working this one. Going to be an interesting and furious couple days of trading and some crazy volatility. Definitely setting up for the flippers to maximize the swings and more than likely leaving longs wondering what happened in the wake of the 8K/good news.
My guess is company will wait a couple of days before PR and let the volume surge on anticipation. R/s cant happen prior to EOY. Not enough time for execution. They need momentum and volume leading up to it and this has been flat last month.
Unfortunately - i dont see it ending up well for l9ngs unless there is news pror to Christmas with soecifics on major retail distribution/deal. The financial agreement is not set up for long term execution. Company needs to drive revenue/outside investment and do it fast or tbis goes toxic in a hurry.
"I don't like the answer Joe V gave me last night to all my inquiries.
All he said was "you will see an 8k"
Not much of an answer if you ask me.
No word of when, no word of any pr's or news ready to be announced."
what are you expecting him to tell you...? he can not answer any of those questions as that would be considered inside. he has to answer those in a public format. if he did tell you - you would not be able to act upon it one way or the other or that would be illegal.
the company has basically gone silent since the original announcement on the agreement. i do not consider that a good sign especially when taking the history into account. on the flip side, Amazon sales continue to be consistent and it appears they continue to replenish. be hard not to execute the R/s unless the loan agreement has very favorable terms and the lender has a very long term approach. not too likely due to financial situation of the company but maybe they are looking at sales data/Amazon purchases as a precursor to retail sale potential.
stock remains very speculative at best.
insider buying has been anemic at best. Ma has been the only one to buy any appreciable shares and i certainly give him credit for that. however, Castle and Lieberman who were the principle directors in Netwolves have done NOTHING since the insider window has been clearly OPENED. they obviously know more about the prospects for the combined entities than anyone and they have not purchased a single share. what does that tell shareholders/public? their defense is they already have too many shares? what about the cash windfall they got as their investment in NW was monetized?
their 3Q15 report looks impressive on a YoY basis but the big question is what are the long term prospects of the NW acquisition and can they successfully merge the operations to get real, exponential, profitable growth? so far, they have had a miserable track record of M&A (Biox, MobiCare, etc) and while they have done very well with GEHC - they just blew the wad on the NW deal. if that does not pan out - where do they turn next and how long will they be able to maintain the GEHC relationship?
4Q is always their strongest Q. i posted some estimates on yahoo with net income being between $3-4.5MM based on last year numbers, NW last quarter and 9 months numbers reported for the combined entity.
i think the $0.001 and 0.0011s will quickly disappear like yesterday. that 50MM was taken in basically two chunks. my guess is the company is buying back shares as aggressively as SEC rules allow with regards to avg daily volume (they can only buy so many shares a day based on a 30 day weighted volume) and have to buy at best bidder pricing so as to not chase the ASK. they also are restricted from buying during certain times of the day to not paint the tape or gap up on the openings. as volume increases, the amount they can buyback on a daily basis does. further, it behooves them to buy as low as possible to retire as many shares as possible with the same amount of capital being employed. the more volume/trading that takes place, the better off for long term investors. the price will remain lower and the company will use less capital to retire teh same amount of shares.
"LMAO twitter is not the problem. Its Bills big mouth."
who did he tell and what did he tell them...you have proof? you specifically stated on several occasions that it was Twitter which was the problem and his tweets telling others there would be a PR on such and such date. what are you referring to with respect to his big mouth? if he told groups privately that he would be tweeting on a certain date and PRs following - that is a different argument. however, there is nothing to suggest that happened.
if one looks at the buyback announcement and looks at the volume/price movement - it is very objective to say that 500MM shares were purchased in that time period and not sold/flipped which created the rise. not insider trading.
"Why was that post ridicules? Bill tweeted advanced notice of 2 PR's giving groups time to front load. Now TPAC has a huge sell off of those share front loaded. As for the SEC they need to investigate why Bill would do that. IMO its because he wanted insiders to dump shares"
becuase Twitter IS A PUBLIC FORUM WITH NO LIMITED ACCESS. it is free to use and sign up. anyone can. just like anyone can access the PR newswires and read a release for public dissemination. if you call Bill and ask when a PR will be released - he can not tell you because that is non public. when he tells the whole world at the same time that a PR with specifics will be released on x date - that is public dissemination that is COMPLETELY ACCEPTABLE by the SEC. period.
you or i or anyone on this board had the same ability to buy or sell based on those tweets prior to the news release. obviously the price was run up on speculation and solf off on the news. that is not illegal, shady, or suspect. that is the market. period. several posters have provided direct links to SEC site showing it is acceptable and even encouraged. the company has publicly disclosed that Twitter is a confirmed source for dissemination.
ANYONE could buy ahead of the official PR that Bill told EVERYONE about AT THE SAME TIME via Twitter.
"I think Bill will wait till it drops lower he knows how people dump this stock after news when it hits bottom then he will buy IMO "
the company can not pick and choose when to buy or how many shares to buy like a retail investor or commercial entity. there are very strict rules with the SEC on how/when they can buy during an open window period and prevent buybacks from artificially making/manipulating a market for the stock. by nature, removing shares from the float DOES increase the value of the remaining shares but Bill cant just decide to buy 300MM shares and put in an order to do so at X price. doesnt work that way. there are specific rules a broker must follow when purchasing shares for an insider or company. google SEC buyback guidelines and educate yourself.
most of the posts on these boards are nonsensical but this has to be one of the more ridiculous ones:
"This action is exactly why Bill needs to keep his mouth shut and not post on Twitter giving groups advance notice of an upcoming PR. They front load then dump it. Also why the SEC needs to investigate Bill for his actions."
just in the last couple of days this poster has been provided DIRECT informatino off of SEC site showing this is a completely acceptable means of non selective disclosure. the company has even stated that Twitter is a primary means for such.
if they put out a PR that a PR was coming on such and such day - the same effect would happen. this stock like most in the realm are highly manipulated and heavily traded. now whether or not you believe the buyback happened/will continue to happen or whether or not the PO will come to fruition and be followed by others is a rational debate. but to continue to lament over perfectly acceptable and somewhat encouraged means of dissemination is borderline insanity.
i was a large buyer in the $0.0003-0.0004 range and bought some more at $0.0005-$0.0006. i bought yesterday at $0.001 on the huge dip. at this point i will probably wait until the traders have been chased out before buying again. no sense buying at $0.001 if i can get the same shares for $0.0007.
while i think the stock remains highly speculative - it is NO easy task getting that qualification or specification and it does put them in a somewhat unique position to capitalize on the Chinese market. if the company received the financial backing it had prior alluded to (and the buyback gives that credence), then not only does it give them instant revenues and scale, also gives them more of a presence in front of perspective customers. for the company being acquired, it is a way to monetize a long investment (most likely a smaller private company) and dramatically spread out risk moving forward my being reverse merged/absorbed by a public entity. it provides liquidity to future holdings that a private company doesnt have.
i have seen that happen several times in this realm. definitely not the norm. but they have executed a buyback and plan to continue. they have announced a significant PO on a strategic basis. and that does suggest a JV/acquisition announcement is close behind.
i considered selling some at $0.0014 since it was a previous high/inflection point but i am more interested in the mid term and how/who the company can combine with to make themselves more readily marketable. i am also not a "trader" so that dramatically changes my outlook/strategy on crazy swings/moves like yesterday and today
Afghanistan sponsorship is significant for several reasons. there has to be some major backing/stroke to make something like this happen on a base let alone one in a war zone. this points to LTCG being specifically/intimately involved. this also provides credibility to getting the products into all the bases foreign and domestic at the local exchanges. while it doesnt rocket sales up, it does provide significant and targeted exposure for both products. it further provides credence that the brand continues to grow on multiple fronts. there are plenty of negatives with the company and they still have a lot of hurdles to overcome.
however, the product continues to move onto shelves across the country through the dealer network. NYC was just shipped and product should be appearing there in the next couple of weeks. yes they hit snags with CK but they shipped product as committed to and retooled labeling for follow up shipments. they are moving vending into the SMS/dealer market. that provides POS revenue streams and MUCH needed target demographic marketing that the company does not pay for (or not on a direct basis.//large scale that national rollouts require on a capital basis). LTCG continues to promote the brand through his SM outlets. nice facebook repost about the event.
money/revenues are coming in. they are obviously running product on both sides and expanding their reach. that money isnt coming out of thin air. will they hit the $3-5MM in 2015 that was projected 4Q14? probably not. will they hit between $1-2MM? very possible with SMS revenues, CK, legacy accounts. despite all of the negative rhetoric - the product exists and can be found on a growing amount of store shelves. they have a very recognizable celebrity/endorser that continues to promote. the products actually work (at least for most of those that i have given it to and asked for feedback), and they are generally a much safer/more natural alternative to the typical energy/hangover shots. the company has been steadfast on stating there will be no R/s.
risk continues to subside while potential increases. remains highly speculative due to lack of filings, convertible debt, past issue. however, when one looks at the company at beginning of 2013, 2014, 2015, and then considers it at the beginning of the 2016 - is it better off today or at the start of each of those years...?
since VFIN left the ASK, i am not showing any trades since 11:29 kind of interesting as that seemed an impetus for a reversal.
as i write this - one just crossed for 531K at $0.0008.
big question - has VFIN been exhausted or are they just taking another pause? they have paused three times after long dilutive runs the past 3-4 weeks. meanwhile - VNDM sits at $0.001. will he pick up where VFIN left off?
i would like to see follow up from IR to explain where the heavy volume is coming from especially in light of VFIN and VNDM constantly being on the inside ASK. that would have been a rather large retail dump which doesnt look like that according to the trades and MM activity on L2.
company still has a ways to go to gain credibility and legitimacy with respect to their past history. while they have been consistent since earlier this summer, having these declines with no answer or using "tortured language" such as retiring 4 notes when it appears they were converted and shares sold in the market is not doing any justice to the credibility. that gap needs to be addressed. delay on 8K with $5MM LOC isnt helping.
on the product side, i continue to be pleased with results from the performance side. i was off for a little over two weeks from heavy lifting due to being on heavy antibiotics for a sinus/ear infection. after lifting heavy last night - i was expecting considerable soreness this morning due to the long lay off. so far, it has been mild at best. i had half a bottle that i mixed about 50/50 with water during the workout and the rest afterwards. will know more tomorrow as the lower body usually has a two delay delay on the soreness in the major muscle groups. if there is minimal soreness tomorrow i will be more impressed. unfortunately, be easier to be impressed with the product performance right now than the company performance.