wow - so much misinformation, subterfuge, and purposely misleading information being thrown across the last couple of weeks.
on the debt/deficit - that was already addressed by several posters but there is a material and specific difference as i am sure the poster who incessantly posts this is well aware. actual debt needs to be paid back and the company paid a significant portion of that back including and most importantly - the convertible debt. that is not discussed as it does not fit the narrative. when the upcoming 10K is released with 4Q15 results - that will become obvious for those that actually read filings. the deficit is retained and will be used to offset future profits (assuming they materialize) and will mitigate/offset tax liability until they are utilized as such. the company is NOT in debt $20MM. without revenue stream - how would they even service that debt load for 12-24 months without a constant source of loan capital...? obviously doesnt make sense.
revenues - the company was rather clear and specific about when it expected to commence revenues and it was 12/15. tada - it is starting. obviously they wouldnt be showing revenues prior to start of mfg. more importantly - the misleading connotation that they have never had revenues as an example of fraud. one needs to understand the process of starting from scratch (essentially) in the mfg world and then understand NAVAIR specs/testing to understand the length and expense of the process. one doesnt just turn out a bearing in a week and send FED EX and get it certified a week later. it is a very long and involved process due to cyclical failure tests that are critical when lives are on the line. these are not run of the mill failure analysis tests. they go well beyond which require signifacntly more time to run the tests, analyze the parts, evaluate the data, and adjust, retool, manufacture, and then start the process again. this takes significant time and money when there is NO REVENUE production to offset costs. where does capital come from to complete/conduct these tests? private investors, insiders, and outside debt (which a portion was convertible). if one reads the comprehensive business strategy - this is laid out including where the money came from, time frames, and expected outcomes.
capital - this remains a question as some have rightfully asked. while the company has filed 8Ks showing completed share purchases/retiring, ithas not addressed where the capital is comping from to buyback shares. are insiders providing the capital/providing additional loans? is the company taking on new debt? is it traditional or toxic? etc. these remain viable questions and concerns. if private capital from existing insiders - these do not require specific filing and can be included in quarterly filings/10K. if new investors or outside capital - they would require an 8K. that is a legitimate concern/question and one of the few that i have seen on this or other boards that hasnt been muddled with misinformation to sell a narrative.
i addressed the MM shorting previously. those intra day short numbers are important when considering the short term price action and volume. the MMs do have to return those shares at some point and they will continue to inject volatility into the trading to induce a market while also trying to profit. somewhere in that process, they need to cover these positions. they can continue to short and cover higher (with new short positions) unlike a retail short but if the buying continues at current pace, the price will continue to escalate.
twitter and social media remains a viable alternative/acceptable dissemination process per teh SEC. period. it is well documented on the SEC site. google SEC social media dissemination and it will take you right there. using SM is more direct and less expensive than traditional PRs. for the lower level info being provided - why as a shareholder - would you spend $1000 when you can tweet/facebook it for free? save the larger, higher impact "news" for traditional PRs (like major contracts of several million, major strategic alliances, etc). why PR you bought back 200MM shares when you are muddling along in the OTC world where it is buy on rumor sell on the news...?
as far as the TA being gagged - Bill addressed that via Twitter as have others. every request cost the company money. it is like calling the attorney - there are no free calls. one can inundate the TA at no cost to them (as a detractor trying to wreak havoc) but drive up the cost to the company/shareholders. as a long term investor - do you really need to check the OS every day? further - if you are a long term investor, are you going to accept a tweet directly from CEO saying what new OS/AS is? if you dont believe him - you should be an "investor." since the company/CEO is speaking to investors and not the daytraders - why does he care whether or not they are updated every 30 minutes? when the TA process is abused, there is certainly a good reason to gag the TA to prevent runaway expense.
if one is simply trading this - most of this is meaningless as you will simply follow the charts, trends, and momentum and the rest is virtually useless. if one is looking at this as a mid to long term play -then this becomes pertinent and one needs to understand the various factions at play on boards such as these and process accordingly. traders need volume and volatility - in either direction. investors need consistent and systematic price appreciation over time. those are two, fundamentally different mechanisms and strategies. throw in the murky world of OTC stocks and understanding that most companies in this realm have no real plan and/or are shells - and it is easy to cherry pick data points and lump TPAC in with the rest.
if/when the company addresses the capital constraints and/or shows the inflow in next filing along with revenues from announced orders - that will become a moot point. right now, demand is being driven on speculation that the company IS succeeding with their business plan/strategy and they will be successful. the stock is getting a premium based on that belief and the negatives are currently being discounted. if company hits anywhere in the million range in revenues for 2016 - current share price is ridiculously low considering continued buyback and announcements that company will continue past the announced 1.8BB. on a P/s basis alone it could be trading at $0.05 assuming final OS gets down to the 1-1.5BB with 300MM locked up with insiders. PE basis is way too soon to assume.
from a market cap standpoint - assuming 1.5BB OS in 2016, $1/share is not reasonable as is $0.50. If they hit their Year 1 target of $5MM - at a 20-50 growth multiple being applied on a Price/Sales basis - that still gives a market cap of $100MM to $250MM. if the OS was closer to 1BB and they hit $5MM year one - then $0.25 could be considered reasonable albeit lofty. if contracts were posted and guidance given that Year 2 estimates were attainable - then $0.25 becomes reasonable in a P/s basis. for now - it is a pipe dream (not to say the irrational OTC spike wont reach $0.10-$0.20 and then quickly tank).
right now, the company needs to show revenues have commenced, show a clear path towards their stated revenue targets, and then follow up with 10Q/10Ks showing those revenues have been booked, contracts in place and being worked on, and then let investors extrapolate the results and employ their own multiples to determine fair value. right now - the market is suggesting the share price is below fair value as it continues to increase and BID up. based on announcements, buybacks, and positive speculation that plan is being followed and on track - i would expect this to trade some where in the $0.01-0.02 range once new contracts/partnerships are announced combined with acquisition activity. again - that requires capital which is either going to come with traditional debt or financed through shares which will alter the P/s models.
for those of you that have trouble reading past two lines - you wont have made it this far anyway. for those of you that are new and trying to figure all of this out and not be left fleeced or disenfranchised with the who process - hope this helps.
AI
