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and of course, we know the globalists will use oil as a means of currency, when they crash all fiat monies, apparently soon.
MF4
Big,
This morning futures are down hard on the Italian bond whatever. Is this just a buying opportunity? Or is it the start on an unexpected rug-pull the markets didn't anticipate?
MF4
Big,
Yeah, I do the charting thing. That's where I screwed up. My first entry on FAS was a bit too early, The subsequent continued selloff was steep, but brief. However, when a trade goes against me that fast, I doubt my setups. Additionally, I did not use a stop because I tend to get taken out at the last tick before reversing in my direction. So, without a stop this time, market screws me yet again. My bad. But, at that point, I started envisioning -400 day. Wrong, of course.
I even saw the turn and should have added. But, by then, I was in full panic. Just wanted out. Stupid. I have to be prepared to hold my positions. Shouldn't enter if I'm not ready.
I'm of a similar view to you on the next year, and even this coming top test. That's why I rebought. The charts tell me we retest SPY 129ish today or next week. I just hate that I let myself get faked out and lock in a loss.
My first FAS entry yesterday was 13.50ish. Sold that for a loss. Then re-entered at 14.50 same day. Dumb both ways!
It looks like the market will continue it's rally today, so I have a decent chance of making a few bucks. I just hate my entry on this trade. I am daytrading, so that makes things a little too tight if not pretty right.
But, I like your VIX watch,
MF4
SC,
Well, the main reason the market is rallying is because I bought FAS this morning way too soon. market kept selling, I kept holding. Within ten minutes, I was several hundred dollars under water.
Then I went short YM, at the bottom. Took a spanking on that, then sold the FAS after it came back a bit to lock in a loss. The market looked weak to me. By then, the market started a 150 point rally. So, I walked away with my tail between my legs.
Then, to make matters worse. I bought the FAS I had sold at the end of today, at the market top, some 70 cents higher than where I sold it. This is idiot trading 101, and since I'm now quite long FAS, you can count on getting your market selloff Friday.
Some days, I just need a good punch to the neck.
MF4
GFP,
You could always try to partner with Ombowstring. I hear he has a great business idea.
MF4
Gfp,
If you're looking for a safe place to invest, you are probably right.
But, if you're a gambler, like me, and use trailing stops, it's not bad at all to day trade.
MF4
sc,
My opinion is this is only a temporary pullback, so the crooks can load up for the next push to new highs.
It may selloff into the close today, or not? But, if Big Ben is giving some words tomorrow, I bet we will have reversed and start heading higher by end of tomorrow.
Sell calls against any profitible positions if you want to lock in some profits maybe?
MF4
wednesday will definitely be the reversal day. My internet is being upgraded and will not be available during trading hours. So, that's when I'll want it most.
MF4
Big,
Now that we've moved up 200 SPY in less than 3 weeks (why do I always go all short right before these historic moves?), and the VIX is already down to 25, what next?
MF4
Maybe Varney can pay his retirement villa off now?
MF4
Big,
Fear not. Even if they let some violent criminals out of jails due to lack of resources, they will still keep pot smokers locked up, so you should be safe. Thank god homeland security is protecting us from terrorists! (joke, in case it's not obvious).
MF4
why is it that everything the government does, I disagree with? They are so anti-Constitution it makes me want to puke!
Protect our borders, protect us from thieves and shoddy companies and banksters, but otherwise quit meddling.
Legalize pot, internet gambling, prostitution. Quit trying to manipulate everything. Let interest rates rise to at least 5%, so the responsible citizens can enjoy some retirement income. Screw the people that need a nanny. They will eventually learn to depend on themselves to survive. You're not doing them any favors by spoon-feeding them. Life is hard, but rewarding in a healthy society.
MF4
SC,
Yes, SPY is an exact replica of the S&P500. Lots of volume. I use it for all of my market studies. I sold the calls today pretty much right at market top. Took a 150% profit on a one-day move. It was really dumb luck that the market got a good news reversal. But, I'll take dumb luck any day of the week.
MF4
Mmmmmmmmmmm. ice cream......
sounds about right.
MF4
SC,
Nice trade. I just bought some SPY calls for a bounce from here. So, market sure to pullback.
MF4
YAY. Another year of booze, broads, and internet poker! Life is good!
MF4
Big,
You may be correct in the rally into year end scenario, but as of today, we are still making lower lows and highs. That equals a downtrend. I admire your conviction and scope as you swing for the fences, and have a good sense of when to counter the herd. But, I have to wonder if you wouldn't do better to try to hit more singles? Maybe, do what you do on shorter time-frames, such as every 3-5 days, reverse position. Scalp smaller moves more often?
It seems the market is giving lots of chances for that kind of swing trading for a profit these days. I just have other distractions that keep me from day-trading effectively right now. Instead, I buy call spreads on indexes when I sense a short-term bottom, and put spreads when I see topping behavior. Those trades are usually good for 100% profit. Being that they are options, I don't invest large amounts of cash.
Good luck man. I enjoy your perspective,
MF4
GFP,
Buy some SDS call spreads. A few weeks ago, I was buying Jan 2013 25/35 call spreads for $2 or less.
In other words, I'm long SDS at 25, capped at 35, expiring in 16 months. If the market falls a bit further, say below SPY 900, I make 500% before 2013.
MF4
Big,
Think or Swim is now owned by TDAmeritrade. So, that explains why both platforms were AWOL. It was almost a full 2 hours into trading before it came online. Totally blew my day and week. Thanks A-holes. I just love it when something comes out of left field and ruins a good plan. Seems to happen every time, for some reason?
MF4
Warning: TDAmeritrade sucks! Today is options expiration for quarterly options and their platforms are down. You can't trade or even see your positions and balances 47 minutes into the trading day.
Absolutely unforgivable. Do they not have any IT people that know what's going on over there? What a cluster*uck!
MF4
Neuro,
Yep, you got me.
MF4
They'll probably have far more success than the geniouses in Cortex management, even though they are much further behind. For one thing, they got a PR out.
MF4
Bigworld,
The vix has been over 30, so you probably haven't gone short yet. I hope you have some shorts even though your target wasn't hit. Maybe today will be a washout day once the SPY hits 110, then reverses viciously. If it does, and you get another chance, perhaps you will pick up some shorts at SPY 119, even if the VIX is over 40?
MF4
what is this all about?
Live feed of the protests:
http://bearishtrader.blogspot.com/p/wall-street-occupation-live.html
GFP,
Look. I'm a saver. I've sacrificed. Never bought a new car. Am building a house with cash. No debt. I own land. I was going to sell the land for my retirement. But, the economy is dead right now and my savings are dwindling.
If the mortgage debt forgiveness plan results in a balanced budget amendment, and restarts the economy, well even if the irresponsible make out better than me, at least I'll have a shot at building wealth again. If you can earn 5-10% interest in a stable currency, well, I'm in favor of it now.
None of these stupid jobs bills/ stimulus plans and artificially low interest rates will do a damned thing to fix the economy. Government can't create jobs, but they can create an environment that makes it worth the trouble for an entrepeeur to takes risks. Right now, there's no reason to try, and a buttload of liability.
Something drastic needs to be done. The sooner the better. But, it better be concocted by some brilliant people, not the political hacks that makes laws today.
MF4
I hate to agree with him, but I do.
MF4
yes, but with the VIX above 40, a rally seems the next move. Probably an option expiration this week or end of month huge move. I doubt 1300 will be reached though. 1250 or 1270 intraday maybe.
MF4
What a subdued delivery. No questions at the end. A smattering of clapping, so they were interested parties there. Maybe they were paid R & R shills? Clearly another dilution will be imminent.
Sounded to me like they are planning another sleep apnea trial? Really? Nine months? I'll pencil it in.
MF4
Well, the presentation starts in 6 minutes, so what the heck, I'll watch it.
You can find the link off Cortex's website.
MF4
that ought to be good for a quick 10% pop. Wow. How exciting.
Let me know if they say anything new. (<-sarcasm)
MF4
Jeez, I could make $1.3M last for at least 2 decades of booze, broads, and internet poker. But, then again, I generally make money when I play.
Note to Varney: When you look around the table and can't figure out who the mark is, it's probably you.
MF4
Obama was probably identified and targetted by the king-makers long ago and told to vote a certain way and just practice his diction. Speech writers will do the rest.
It blows my mind that people, even cadidates like Gary Johnson, still believe the system isn't rigged. They still think our elections are fair and anybody has a chance. No way.
If you make it on the ballot, you are a puppet. Period. They are not that sloppy. Loose ends get eliminated. They are professionals. Example: the Seals from team 6 that were downed in that helicopter recently. These guys are ruthless mafia.
MF4
Maybe Corx has a plunge protection team? They allocate $15 per week to keeping the stock at ten cents or higher. That's one less bottle of booze. Don't ever accuse management of not willing to make sacrifices to benefit the shareholders.
MF4