Big,
You may be correct in the rally into year end scenario, but as of today, we are still making lower lows and highs. That equals a downtrend. I admire your conviction and scope as you swing for the fences, and have a good sense of when to counter the herd. But, I have to wonder if you wouldn't do better to try to hit more singles? Maybe, do what you do on shorter time-frames, such as every 3-5 days, reverse position. Scalp smaller moves more often?
It seems the market is giving lots of chances for that kind of swing trading for a profit these days. I just have other distractions that keep me from day-trading effectively right now. Instead, I buy call spreads on indexes when I sense a short-term bottom, and put spreads when I see topping behavior. Those trades are usually good for 100% profit. Being that they are options, I don't invest large amounts of cash.
Good luck man. I enjoy your perspective,
MF4
