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they have 3k Daxxify account end of last year. They should at minimum doubling that before end of the year. If 2/3 re-ordering rate stays, will be quite amazing
20 weeks ago, RVNC was trading at $11.2, almost double the current price. The product works. Most complains I see were about the premium pricing which will get fixed over time. The share price just can't catch a break yet. In long term, product performance and share price performance should converge.
I think Feb 28 is the earning day. I would think the only news worthy item from the ER would be about OPUL - is that a big flat zero? High likely I think. But any positive surprise will be welcome there.
Still don’t understand why we have so many sellers at 5s
Could be one news away from a significant turnaround.
It’s a brutal breakdown from 30s to 5s after an approval. Agree, in a long run, those who can load up will be better off.
100k shares used to cost close to 4mm
Now only 500k
Quite a bargain if all we are dealing with is one year delay from reaching target market share.
I agree. Eventually, injectors will have to adjust to reality by then, some of their clients would be permanently gone
boraborak38, so why u don’t carry it even though you know Daxxify performs better with similar pricing ?
and RNVC is down 40% and IWN down 5% YTID... so I guess all the sudden RVNC's drop is only driven by IWN.
The volatility on this stock is just insane
Just when i thought it has stabilized
Shorts and convertible hedge in control for now
So in your sample, the docs charge 50 percent more but didn’t spend time to optimize result
And yet 50 percent stay with Daxxify. That’s really not bad.
25 percent market share would make a 10x from here without a doubt
It would also be just that they are more content with the status quo
Why learn when business is doing just fine
But over time, they will be forced to adopt
Why they still charge 40 50 percent premium even after RVNC had lower their price?
Potential partnership, oversea approvals and milestone payments make shorting this stock now extremely foolish. So I would expect many pro shorts to cover soon.
I believe the 4.6 percent return is real return, ie return on top of inflation. And it’s not an equity only fund. So it’s actually not bad
Interesting indeed.
Institutions ownership is 94.83% (83.27M shares).
Strategic Entities (include Teoxane and Insiders) 9.5% (8.35M)
So that's already over 100%... and then we have shares shorted: 19.23% (14.81M).
Float is ~73M shares. Outstanding is 87.81M shares
Will be firework if sales starts to ramp up.
Even if Foley were gone, those injectors will not just lower their prices because of that.
I wonder to keep Foley around, love his track record on securing buyout offer.
And so far, he seems to be doing what the board has suggested - loyalty program, lowered price, manage duration expectation etc
I agree. I would rather they draw it even if they have the partnership (cash upfront + less cash burn) deal.
They can part the extra cash to T bill so the effective rate isn’t as high as advertised but have extra 150mm would come in handy if some unexpected obstacles happen.
Is Foley hinting on potential partnership on therapeutic opportunities?
Edit: I am listening to the Guggenheim webcast. He mentioned about therapeutic being just started so there are things they are looking into when the host asked him about financial and funding source.
Was hoping that the share price would hold up better after the surge. I guess no easy money for us YET.
Down about 40 percent YTD, lots of room to go up just to catch up. A company that owns a potential blockbuster drug should not trade like that
I hope you don’t make investment decisions based on one data point. If you have the best in class product, you would not mind competing. Don’t let the share price clouded your judgement. The stock is probably close to being 20 percent short now, one piece of good news will send this back up as the market is extremely bearish on Daxxify now.
But as you suggested, therapeutics alone worth way more. Say RHA sales 150mm and CD 130mm (about 1/3) = total sales will be 280mm.
Those two alone makes RVNC undervalued. And then you get ex-US partnerships, aesthetics and other upcoming therapeutic targets for free
of course, but I am talking in general terms here, not about short term results.
absolutely, but to state the obvious, a business has to stop burning cash before it can become profitable.
@Aestheticexec - would you share the data you talk about?
Just therapeutic potential worth way more than current EV, aesthetic and RHA is pretty much free upside but total TAM is more than 3 billions, giving it up would be more than absolute foolish.
The market is so wrong about the valuation here. We can all agree the shorts will fuel the next rally when it becomes clear Daxxify is working better and in some cases, same price as the alternatives or even cheaper.
Cheers
They would make Daxxify a blockbuster drug as RVNC currently is still guiding.
Still found it interesting about the 280mm sales this year and cash flow breakeven next year guidance. They need around 400m sales to break-even. And to get from 280 to 400m needs 40 percent growth. Seems quite a stretch as RHA growth rate probably ~15 percent?
But CD is 345mm TAM, if they can get 15 percent market share next year, then they can do it probably.
Is the gross margin the same between CD and cosmetic ?
What’s up with the almost endless selling at low 5?
Why would anyone so eager to sell when it’s already so low and things are turning around
The thing about shorts is usually they don’t impact the terminal value of a stock. It just makes the stock more volatile both up and down
That’s very interesting. Either your observation is unique to your circle or RVNC is severely undervalued here.
Seems just a matter of time before Daxxify capture significantly larger market share.
>> it will happen in due course.
That's my expectation as well. What kind of market share you think Daxxify will get say in 2-3 years?
>>No. When the share price takes a dive, posters on message boards like to vent, and firing the CEO is a favorite form of venting
I won't blame them. Wasted 200mm on OPUL, now seems to be a complete write off. Flop the go to market strategy is one thing, but he could have set the expectation better afterwards I think.
Anyways, sub 500mm market cap for an approval drug with blockbuster potential is just too good to pass.
The prize will be huge if they manage to fix up their go to market strategy. It might take couple years. But the potential is real.
$RVNC - down 20 percent last two days
Can the market be more negative on this one?
Supposed to be best in class drug.
EOLS which is selling an inferior product is having EV of 810mm with 2024 revenue guidance of 255mm. 3.2x multiple
RVNC minimum revenue guidance is 280mm. EV is 670mm. 2.4x.
I.e. the market is saying EOLS has better prospect than RVNC now. Make no sense to me.
Is it really that hard to roll out a product properly? They seems to execute well with RHA. How can they perform so messy with Daxxify?
Should Foley be fired?
I don’t think WS even look into a name like RVNC, it’s too small for them to care. But I bet there are tons of retail shorts piled on which caused the recent down turn. The guidance which many think is lowball here is considered by an analyst as too high. That triggered the latest sell off. Today is month end and the market crashed abit, hope the rest of the year will be better.
Did he make any bad decisions recently?
so down from 6 to 5 in 2 days. No News. What a field day for shorts.
Go seek, disagree, roll coaster has up and down. This one has been nothing but down.
Just when one thinks it can’t go lower, it dives
Seems we might break 5 today
Will need a double just to get back to 30 days ago price.
Down 44% YTD, Down 85% from 1 year ago. What an ugly picture. Nobody would think we would see this price after FDA approval.
It's a long process, they just started. Only have 2500 accounts now. RHA has 7k, and EOLS has 12k.. A lot of room to go. BUT market has already written it off..
I am not worry about the terminal value, as I think RHA franchise and Daxxify would fetch at least what I paid for.
A more capable company would take over Daxxify, rebrand it and make a killing. RHA has sales for 130mm and growing ~15%.
The market isn't looking.
So another 345mm TAM ready to go
EV is at just 670mm. Market cap is 450mm
That's the best risk reward in the market by far. I bought more today. No more though, it's getting too big.
I know it sucks. Many would just sold and move on.
>> Pretty amazing to think that a company that just guided $280mm annual revenue may be trading at 400mm market cap
EV is $700mm, 2.5x sales.
Inferior companies with much dimmer prospect trade a lot better.
Absurd. Been adding.