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Agree this latest gap has looked/acted different so far. Won’t be surprised for a quick fill (kind of hoping for it) or for it to finally break over $1
I haven’t had the time to read the board as much as I like, any more info on this?
Thanks again for all your amazing charts Sojo! Regardless of whether I comment I ALWAYS go to you’re profile and review your TA.
As you know the only thing more certain than death, taxes, and NWBO taking longer than anyone could possibly expect, is that NWBO fills all up gaps :) The only thing I hate more than an NWBO up-gap is an NWBO up-gap on low volume!
BUT there is a powerful ISLAND REVERSAL pattern on the 5 day chart (total tome-period) that I haven’t seen in ages… I’m not holding my breath but maybe just maybe it will be different this time!
ROFL, this is an incredibly funny post. Thanks for lightening my day ;)
May her memory be a blessing. Much love to you Gary.
While I hope it does, I do not subscribe to the theory that the price will go up on high volume right before TLD. While possible, I’ve seen countless companies have massive stop loss accumulation raids right before TLD; I’ve also seen companies with low volume and price stagnation suddenly release data with no indication whatsoever; finally I’ve seen companies go up 100%+ before bad TLD… the main point being that IMO it is buy and hold time.
“I want to assure everyone that the Phase III trial and the analysis of the data are the most important topic that everyone in this company is focusing on. It has the full focus and attention of our management and our Board as well. Every resource we have has been and is being brought to bear on it. As we say, ‘it is our number one, number two, and number three priority.’ There’s nothing more important to the company.”
She may even throw in one or more of the following to spice it up:
Stay tuned, coming months, multi step multi month process, working hard to get us over finish line, 1/2 yard line, DI will bet you a steak, we only have one chance to get this right, product to market, wish I could tell you more but we are in a quiet period, supply chain issues, 14 year trial, we all have long Covid (ok I made that one up), do you know how many shares I have you peon? (Kidding(
Not sure if I’m trying to be funny or not. Kind of scary this was almost a year ago. As Hydra pointed out to me on another board, it would be just like LP/NWBO to finally release TLD after ASM.
Anyway, I really really hope for just 2 things:
1. TLD/publication before ASM
2. TLD/publication NOT coinciding with a stock market crash…
Completely agree on all Doc Logic, especially the volume. Even the drop to .59 was on nominal volume. In retrospect, it is downright fascinating that a company could lose $200,000,000 in market cap on only about $7,000,000 in volume (or 10,000,000 shares). That’s why these coordinated stop losss raids happen (in our case I think it was more for accumulation than short profits).
I can’t imagine what volume and price action will be like on TLD. I imagine at some point there will be some pretty intense profit taking selling pressure but there could also be an equally intense FOMO squeeze. I’m not a big believer in the hundreds of millions of naked shorts, but even 20,000,000 of shorts getting margin called all at once could be explosive.
I’d guess on TLD we will see well in excess of 100,000,000 in volume, possibly even 500,000,000. If 10,000,000 in volume caused a 17% drop image what 50 times that could do.
Anyway great points as usual.
BTW is EX being gone as weird to you guys as it is to me? I don’t miss him (or them as the case may be) but it does feel a bit more like a choir up in heyah!
You got me!? Hadn’t realized how hard this was!
ITCMs = In the coming months
IBYAS (DIism) = I’ll bet you a steak
OTHYL (LGism) = on the half yard line
ST(LPism) = stay tuned
IE (Biggerism) = information entropy
TFDR (Biosectinvestor and Anders disagree with interpretation) = the four day rule
TTBIACSC (MID) = The tote bag is a coming soon campaign ;)
Hopefully stonkmonster tells us his ;)
Hahaha, UTLDCF needs to be added to the official NWBO acronym dictionary right next to YOLO FOMO FUD and WAG
Let’s see if anyone can guess the following:
ITCMs
IBYAS (DIism)
OTHYL (LGism)
ST(LPism)
IE (Biggerism)
TFDR (Biosectinvestor and Anders disagree with interpretation)
TTBIACSC (MID)
That’s the pattern I was talking about but can’t figure out how to share a photo from my iPhone… Thanks :)
BTW I think we hit 1.12 -1.20 on this run (unless TLD comes first)
Thanks Sojo! All of your charts are super interesting/helpful to me and I’m not the least bit mad or resentful that you didn’t call the massive unexpected sell-off.
Here is what I am seeing on a much shorter term… again pardon my pathetic charting “software” ;)
10Baggerz Chart
So sorry I’m having IHUB (HTML) technical difficulties but I was referring to the 1 month TOTAL timeframe chart not the monthly period… Just see a similar pattern over the past week as right before the last breakout.
Hey Sojo and JudgeSmails, PARDON MY AMATEUR CHARTING but I noticed something interesting on the 1 month timeframe and was wondering your thoughts?
Edit: sorry technical difficulties on the chart
Yes, before the BLA filings. I agree they are waiting on publication to realease TLD but the publication process also bought them over a year to work on the BLAs (and directly with RAs without a summary TLD PR just floating out there being attacked. I agree that approval will most likely happen many months after the BLA filings.
Exactly, maybe it’s not the magical news some are claiming but it is unequivocally positive…
When TLD comes out showing statistically significant improvement in OVERALL SURVIVAL, we’ll no doubt spend the next several months hearing about how it’s really bad news because the FDA will never approve due to the “SAP changes.”
It does explain why the company seems so hellbent on not releasing TLD until the last possible moment before BLA filings/approval.
Approval is the only thing that will quiet the fudsters and then they will magically disappear from 24/7/365 bashing.
Fair enough, his advisory role with NWBO since Data Lock shows he wants to “advance the science.” Definitely not a bad sign.
Very interesting indeed… thanks Evaluate!
The disclosure that he is an advisor to NWBio was added to that website on September 26,2020.
https://web.archive.org/web/2021*/https://www.practiceupdate.com/author/roger-stupp/12
Pretty cool that he’s onboard!!!
Giving myself a pat on the back as I noticed this pattern earlier today and just logged on to see if you might have mentioned it.
Also noticed that the reverse H&S that you pointed out the other day is very much in play. I’m thinking we see one last stop raid to .73-.75 sometime in the next week or two before rocketing back over $1 for good.
Have a good weekend and thanks for all the charts!
I’m trying to be compassionate as Sir P is having a rough time and I too have been guilty of rooting for a stock to go down after a failed swing trade.
That being said, repeatedly stating that one thinks the company is going to 0 after years of pumping in an attempt to get a lower share price is pretty rough.
Technically I think we might touch .73 or .75 on one or two last stop loss raid dips (completing the inverse head and shoulders and also backtesting the bottom rail of the recent uptrend).
Im-a gonna go a-look at Sojo charts this weekend as I have one last big add left in me.
Interesting stuff both of you. Reminds me in nefariousness of the accumulation shenanigans we see so often here, with the huge morning orchestrated low volume sell off/shorting that triggers short term traders stop losses and allows massive accumulation.
Always appreciate your thoughts Senti. Same on both NWBO and the market. Another major development I didn’t expect has been the extraordinary meltdown in the biotechnology sector. I’d hoped we’d get TLD/publication during a strong period for the sector, but like you I feel confidant about my holdings despite the yearlong beat down.
Market was down 30% under one admin and it definitely wasn’t that admins fault. Now it is down 8% from all time highs and suddenly it is the current administration’s fault. And the media of course. And drilling for oil. Got it.
If this is the big market crash (I don’t think it will be) then I hope NWBO can be a shining light in the darkness.
IMO the cause of a market crash is about 25 years of insane monetary policy in the making. It started with keeping interest rates relatively low during the internet bubble and then essentially cutting them to zero during the 2008 crisis and never really raising them again. Then came the corporate bailouts of companies that literally caused the crisis. Next came the unlimited QE, repos, and the bond buying. Next came the corporate tax breaks, estate tax overhaul, and covid business stimulus. Now we have more of the same plus more individual/family covid stimulus and infrastructure stimulus.
The politicizing of an obviously systematic problem is ridiculous to me.
Great calls on the breakout levels Sojo.
I’m out of the prediction business but I wouldn’t be surprised if we gap up to 1.03-1.11 tomorrow morning and then backtest the top rail before finally breaking above $1 for good. That’s my plan anyway for a very small swing trade and one final big add ;)
If it opens flat or down and then starts to rise we might be in the midst of another pennant breakout run like we had in October 2020… except this time with NO gap.
One thing is for certain we are the most patient investors in the history of biotech and we deserve this.
The bear arguments are getting more and more nonsensical. The time for nefarious BPs/shorts to “starve” NWBO out of business has long since passed (it was a real danger at one point).
TLD, publication, BLAs, approval, and manufacturing capacity (Flaskworks integration/certification) are coming soon. There is very little any BP can do it this point short of bribing the FDA to reject.
There will be plenty of BPs interested in acquisitions/JVs once this happens.
All good MID, no need to apologize. All longs are on the same team (extending the lives of patients with this terrible disease). We all have reached various levels of frustration/skepticism and elation/exuberance with our financial investments in this company over the past several years.
Within reason, it is always good to get a range of opinions. I could do without the “sitting on a failed trial” and “$100 on TLD” posters but other than that I have found almost everyone here to be helpful in sharing information. I’m hoping for TLD and BLA filings before ASM and would be pleasantly surprised with anything more.
Best wishes!
Good point ;)
Wish that post wasn’t saved as I’d missed the fact that the older bag had no trademark ;)
Rooting hard for it being a coming soon campaign, but I’d settle for good TLD in 1H 2022 at this point.
BTW sold about 75K shares today to transfer to my 401K first thing next week. I fear I may have just guaranteed that we get TLD on Monday premarket :)
Best wishes to you MID
Yeah I second that BB, I have NEVER understood the “secret BLA” theory, that’s just not how it works. What does make sense is stacking TLD, publication, accelerated approval status, and BLA filing together and doing so before ASM so there will be happy shareholders who will approve an increase in authorized shares.
Hey poor man, long time, hope you’re getting enough protein during this long wait ;)
100% on the same page as to TLD valuation, and I’m shocked to see 75% of posters here picking $20++ I guess the assumption is that there will be FDA approval in 2022…
I just don’t want to see people miss out on a 8-10 bagger chasing some sort of meme stock pipe dream on a company with almost no current revenue and 1.5 BILLION SHARES OUTSTANDING.
Long term I think we get to $20++ if we don’t get bought out before then, but IMHO that’s years NOT months away.
Very interesting, thanks for taking the time to share your in in-depth knowledge regarding clinical trial design.
I think all clinical trials must be set up to augment the existing SOC. I believe most who refer to a “new SOC” understand that DCVAX will be PART OF a new SOC.
Hi Sir P, haven’t been reading the board as much but was very shocked to see the nature/tone of some of your posts. You’ve always been such a patient, positive, and light hearted long term investor…
Went back and looked and saw that you’ve recently lost people that are close to you. I just wanted to wish you the best even if you decide to liquidate your holdings. These sound like really difficult times and I hope you get through them.
I too am extremely frustrated with management, primarily for intentionally misleading investors that we’d get TLD in 2020 and never updating us as to what changed. Even gleefully bragging that if it were up to them we wouldn’t even know about the SAP changes…
To me they did this to allow most (if not all) of the non insider warrant holders to exercise their warrants (providing much needed money for operation/publication/BLA/manufacturing) while keeping the stock price above $1 on the backs of retail investors who thought that TLD would be any day.
On the other hand, I also realize that this is the nature of the chess game that LP is playing and needs to play in order to give the nefarious forces who want to attack the data the least amount of time possible between TLD, publication, and BLA filings. I personally do not believe the trial failed and feel very strongly that the data is good but because of the SAP changes is being withheld until they are ready to file BLAs.
Anyway best to you and may this year bring healing and maybe even some good TLD ;)
Very interesting post, point, and example. I think NWBO will get there eventually, and I will hold at least half of my position long term and likely re-enter with anything I sold shortly thereafter.
I’ve always enjoyed/respected your posts. I’ve also wondered about you and DI ever since you got very upset with some of my correspondence with him. That story was from over a decade before he joined NWBO. Are you guys friends? No need to answer if you’re not comfortable BTW.
Thanks again for your unique perspective. I’ll be so happy for all the interesting, caring, and incredibly patient people here when DCVAX finally comes to fruition.
Fascinating discussion, thanks.
Let’s say that they are waiting for the guidance, how would that work in conjunction with publication?
What I’m getting at is that I don’t think NEJM or the Lancet would just put a peer reviewed ready to be released publication “on ice” for NWBO until the FDA finally released procedural guidance and the company decided the were ready to share TLD? Or would they?
I could certainly see the guidance affecting affecting the BLA submission timing, but it would be scary if the final data analysis itself was actually being held up by generalized FDA guidance.
Kabu’s was $4-8
I’m pretty sure all of those people you posted would be similar (under $10)
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167345670
I second that! It’s pretty scary to read the majority of the posts on Stocktwits and Yahoo. Thanks so much to everyone here for sharing your amazing specialized knowledge with this community. There are too many to list.
Totally agree in 3-4 years (assuming L approval + full market share + positive direct trials + major partnerships + up-listing) NWBO could easily be 30-50+++
What makes me worried is of course “NWBO time” and fully diluted outstanding shares of 1.5 BILLION + whatever they add shortly after TLD/publication.
There are HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of warrant holder shares that all have a basis under .25 and have been waiting a long time to cash out at least a portion of their gains.
No matter how good TLD is, the selling pressure that this will create at a certain price point will be pretty intense, unless we get bombarded with good news all at once.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we go to $5-7 on TLD and then violently back down to $2.50 to $3.00 before stabilizing in the $3-4 range until approval news.
While I don’t think we get any sort of meme stock like run, I believe the likelihood of the DCVAX-L trial meeting its primary endpoint is what makes NWBO such an amazing and unique investment at this price. I just hope everyone is thinking about rational valuations (see the valuation table on the message board homepage) and not just share price in deciding where to set their TLD limit orders.
Of course it would also be foolish to sell everything on TLD and miss out on a runaway share price if we do get BLA and partnership news etc.
All just my own best wild guess…
I always thought I was one of the most bullish people here, but seeing some of these predictions is a bit shocking. Hope I’m wrong, but anything over $10 (without a buyout which I think won’t happen until approval by all 4 RAs) seems incredibly unlikely in a year. I’d be ecstatic with 10X from here.