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fwiw, got some SPY 472p @ 0.32
based on the map theory
that current level is shorting R,
and because DXY trying to rally this morning, too,
with max pain of 472 also lower.
time will tell...
interesting that we gapped up
to the high end of today's map,
meaning directly into the shorting range.
max pain today is 472,
which is also lower.
but SPY/UVXY out of the gate
suggest SPY will track higher initially.
waiting for a clearer signal...
fwiw, naaim fund exposure data suggests
that funds unloaded first week of jan, as expected,
then bought the dip, with exposure rising last week
from 71% on jan3 to 80% on jan10.
this week's data should be posted later today:
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
edit: due to open interest shift yesterday,
today's max pain is now 472, down from 475.
suggests the casino would profit most
by keeping SPY in 472 range again today
then striking lower tmrw.
time will tell whether the bulls will overpower the option flushers.
original post below:
fwiw, SPY max pain this week, based on weds open interest:
474 - weds -- closed 472.29
475 - thurs
460 - friday
http://www.maximum-pain.com/options/spy
and friday is monthly exp day.
maybe we see a rally today to flush puts?
then nosedive dump friday to flush calls?
no way to know til it happens.
just gotta trade the chart we see.
closed SPY 472c @ 0.52 from 0.18 avg.
total lotto play.
in EOD bots we trust,
but not enough to hold til 15:59 ET... 😉
edit: 472c bid now 0.60, because they can...
fwiw, added SPY 472c @ 0.10,
on possible bounce from S higher than earlier S,
to reduce cost basis to 0.18.
AAPL, MSFT, AMZN (top SPY components)
trying to rally EOD, too.
total lotto play.
in bots we trust.
fwiw, SPY 472c @ 0.25 for possible EOD run.
SPY 5min 6/20 crossed positive @ 14:30
with rising awe, macd, and gapped green adx,
with UVXY 5min bearish in all indicators.
also, max pain @ 474 today,
and at the low end of TT's map for today.
could plunge if sellers have more to dump.
just a speculative hunch that the bots
want to close higher today.
nice EOD scalp!
i stopped out at losses for all calls today.
SPY 5min chart kept looking like it was ready to bounce
but it never happened.
the long grind upwards early afternoon
kept pace with theta burn, so call bids didn't rise with SPY.
was a great week overall.
live to trade another day!
fwiw, added SPY 478c @ 0.20.
SPY ticking upwards
as UVXY finally selling off
with DXY weaker.
it's already 13:30 ET,
so theta is a key factor for OTM options.
need some upward momo soon,
or i'll bail on calls to cut losses.
are your 475c green on this small rally?
DXY has been rallying for a while.
still holding underwater calls for now,
but still optimistic given SPY sideways
for a while at decent S
which is a bit higher than prior LOD dip.
looks like similar midday setup to yesterday,
SPY struggling to rally
but eventually it took off
and ran far higher than i would have expected.
only time will tell what the casino has in store for us.
added SPY 479c @ 0.10 to lower cost basis to 0.17.
time will whether this 475.2 S will hold
and provide a springboard for bounce.
bottom falling out now
with higher volume sell candles.
watching for new S.
should have scalped some puts on the way down
but didn't anticipate this much selling.
mistakes were made.
SPY punched lower again
with UVXY and DXY nudging upwards.
still expecting a run upward
given the slowing SPY decline
with UVXY not showing much strength.
but standing pat until it happens.
edit: of course, as soon as i post the above,
UVXY finds some legs and spikes upward.
never can tell with bees...
fwiw, SPY 479c @ 0.25
on SPY 5min shifting up
while UVXY 5min sags.
will add more on dips.
edit, added 479c @ 0.20 & 0.15
watching SPY retest 476.26 S
before adding anything.
edit: SPY breaking lower, with UVXY rallying.
still anticipating bots to drive higher
based on the open, DXY down,
and general pattern this week.
so i'm not chasing the puts for now.
watching for 479c entry on more stable S
with SPY 5min shifting bullish
as UVXY 5min shifts bearish.
your thoughts?
fishing for more SPY 480c on this pullback.
DXY down, UVXY not rallying,
while SPY declines.
seems a recipe for SPY bounce and run soon.
time will tell...
got some tentative SPY 480c @ 0.32
looks like bull flag R at the open
but not selling off
so i'm still thinking upward for now.
looks like you're seeing plenty of R on the possible path upward today?
could you post a map for SPY, itself?
i'm eying the mapping from ES to SPY,
but, if feasible, it'd be great to see
the SPY order field with SPY pricing?
GG, still holding those jan22 490c?
if this premarket rally continues intraday,
they might be shiny at the open
and potentially onward and upward.
SPY up to 477.5 in pre
poised for +1 gap up at open.
given the steep aggressive bot rallies
we've seen this week,
maybe they punch for new all time high today?
480 is only 2.50 away...
ppi data is bullish.
doesn't need to be major improvement.
talking headed focusing on the "better than expected" facet,
assuaging inflation concerns,
counter-balancing yesterday's morning gut punch.
SPY rallied immediately in pre
from ES overnight gap down
to now small gap up level.
could be another face-ripping rally today.
maybe they go for new all-time-high (>480)?
because they can...
to be clear,
i def agree the inflamed middle-east
should be an anchor around SPY's neck,
but when's the last time reality has mattered
in these bot-manip'd markets?
time will tell.
we just need to trade the chart as it comes.
and be nimble for rug pulls.
TT, if feasible, curious to see your maps
before the PPI data at 08:30 ET
and at 09:00, 30min after the PPI.
is your order data nightly or real-time?
after several days of steep runs
and high-amplitude oscillations,
a day of consolidation could def happen.
i think much depends on the PPI in 40 min
and how the world wakes up to the overnight news
that houthi attacks on shipping lanes
are already having impacts on global supply chains
being that bugaboo of peak-covid economic struggles
which seeded widespread psyche trauma on the world.
(remember that time many people ran out of toilet paper?
yeah, that was fun...)
eg: i'll be watching TSLA puts this morning:
[[ Tesla pauses German production after Red Sea shipping attacks ]]
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/12/tesla-pauses-german-production-because-of-red-sea-shipping-attacks
that said, copying from prior msg:
it seems evident
from decades of empirical data
that, in modern algobot markets,
news is irrelevant
unless the exchange is cracked
or burning down.
thus, SPY 500, baby!
because they can.
and they will.
and they don't stop...
re: "Now USA and UK did biggest mistake in its history"
fwiw, the hijacked tanker seems a more likely ww3 flashpoint to me?
[[ Ship hijacked off Oman appears to change course toward Iran waters ]]
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/ship-hijacked-in-gulf-of-oman-changes-course-for-iran-waters.html
the houthis are shielded politically by the proxy war facade.
everyone knows iran backs the houthis.
and everyone knows the anti-ship missiles the houthis are firing came from iran.
but just as iran denied helping to plan/fund/arm the oct 7th hamas attack,
they will deny responsibility for what "bad actors" do with iranian weapons.
and the houthis are derailing global shipping
via potentially lethal missile attacks on civilian vessels,
which are violations of both the geneva convention
the holy juggxrnaught of elite profiteering,
which simply will not stand
in a world in which billionaires buy politicians by the dozen
and the trillionaires dictate history.
and then you're in the hague
for a multimonth/year haggling of starched-wig politicos
while the world burns down.
whereas, if reporting is accurate (still unclear to me)
iranian operatives were directly involved
in the hijacking of the tanker
and are still on board the tanker.
presumably, one of usa/uk/germany/alia
will send in seals/sas/ksk/etc...
to retake the tanker before it reaches iran.
which would put western soldiers
in direct lethal combat with iranian operatives
(assuming intel is legit).
and that's seems a harrowingly precarious ww3 trigger to me. 😢
as for the impact on SPY,
SPY is up 11%, within punching distance of all-time-high,
since the oct 7th hamas attack
that started the middle-east facet of ww3 preamble.
i def agree SPY will care at some point.
but it seems evident
from decades of empirical data
that, in modern algobot markets,
news is irrelevant
unless the exchange is cracked
or burning down.
thus, SPY 500, baby!
because they can.
and they will.
and they don't stop...
indeed. SPY's been good to us this week.
PPI data in pre tmrw (08:30 ET)
could be another interesting day.
fwiw, got SPY 475p @ 0.10 for lotto EOD dump play.
maronti, so grim. 😪
which ticker was that?
fair enough.
i def grok risk and money mgmt.
fwiw, i still have ~60m MIKP,
most of which are "free" residual shares
from flipping it over a decade ago.
the rest bought last summer in the 0005-0009 range
on the theory that mark would finally get his ducks in a row,
before the RS news tanked us to 0002-0004 range.
so my cost basis is no longer zero
as it was prior to this summer.
and i'm not keen to add any
unless mark posts great credible news of production
without diluting us to oblivion again.
both those criteria remain to be seen.
and i was more confident in the latter
prior to the 5x bump in AS/OS ratio.
fwiw, just closed all calls:
477c @ 0.30 from 0.23 avg
475c @ 1.25 from 0.26
might go higher, but SPY rally had already stalled @ 475 R
before the burst rally to 476,
and i don't trust it, esp given theta burn 2 hours to close.
wish i had been around for the open for puts.
but still a good day on the bounce.
hopefully everyone with midday calls taking profits now?
SPY may bounce here.
SPY 5min 6/20 crossed green (bullish).
UVXY 5min tanking steeper now.
DXY also ticking down now.
up 90% on 476c (0.50 bid from 0.26 entry)
but holding for potential rebound higher.
still underwater on the 477c
but if i add anything, it'll be 476c.
theta ever more a factor after lunch.
re: "We trade the chart in front of us"
always!
i missed the opening 30 min and didn't want to chase.
i do anticipate a SPY bounce this afternoon
given the 5min SPY and UVXY charts since ~11:30 ET.
nothing guaranteed, but it seems likely,
esp given what we've seen in recent months.
feels like the bottom may be in.
got some SPY 475c @ 0.26 here
for possible bounce into lunch hour.
time will tell...
SPY new LOD now on a steep 1min plunge
with associated UVXY spike upward.
let's see where SPY finds next S.
could be a flush for calls today.
added SPY 477c @ 0.18 and 0.21
as SPY finds tentative S above LOD.
cost basis now 0.25 on the spread.
aiming to remain nimble
in case SPY does tank to new LOD...
we should still stay nimble
if SPY tags a new LOD
with UVXY rallying
then we could see another rapid steep leg down.
SPY 5min 6/20 crossing bullish now.
got SPY 477c @ 0.32
let's see what happens
on this (10:30 ET) retrace.
if S @ 473.6 or higher,
i'll prolly add more calls.
yeah, SPY selling off from pre-market gap up
probably due to CPI / jobs data.
CPI is up, but not much, and unemployment is better.
[[ December CPI shows sharpest price rise [0.3%] in three months
but little sign of inflation rebound [up to 3.4% now] ]]
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/december-cpi-report-s-p-500-futures-near-record-ahead-of-key-inflation-data
[[ U.S. jobless claims drop to lowest level since October ]]
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-inch-drop-to-lowest-level-since-october-68be4cec?mod=home-page
or maybe that risk of ww3 is finally undermining market confidence... 😢
[[ Ship hijacked off Oman appears to change course toward Iran waters ]]
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/ship-hijacked-in-gulf-of-oman-changes-course-for-iran-waters.html
time will tell.
wouldn't surprise me to see SPY tag 479 today
and put to break 480 tmrw.
because they can...
re: issues going on in the red sea,
def a grim ongoing risk of ww3 breaking out
any random usa night now, while markets are closed.
(daytime in middle east)
if iran and usa square off
and start trading live fire directly
(vs just via houthi proxy war),
then putin is likely roped in as iran's ally,
bringing putin's nuclear arsenal
into the equation.
and markets seem unlikely to love that.
which makes it precarious to
calls overnight in general currently.
nor the risk of domestic civil war
which could also break out any random day.
and, personally, i feel a shiller SPY P/E of 32
to be precarious, even in the best of times.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
per chart at link above,
the only two times in market history
that S&P composite P/E has been this high
was during the 1929 pre-crash exuberance
and the dotcom exuberance,
both of which ended with ~60% corrections
within a couple years.
there are plenty of fabricated reasons
used to justify modern high P/E ratios.
but those seem more credible
in a more stable broad economy,
when the vast majority of consumers
aren't struggling to pay rent
while saddled with high monthly interest payments
on record usa consumer credit debt levels.
add in the risk of wars,
both global and domestic,
and i def agree SPY seems ludicrous this high and climbing.
that said,
the israeli-hamas conflict sparked on oct 7th
and SPY rallied higher the next trading day (oct 9th)
and gapped up the following 3 trading days,
holding the gains since oct 7th
for 7 trading sessions.
SPY closed at 476.56 yesterday,
up ~11% since the 429.54 oct 6th close,
before the hammas attack,
and before congress gop blocked
additional ukraine war support.
so it doesn't see the casino cares about the risk of ww3,
nor the risk of usa civil war,
until forced to actually deal with such?
in the meantime, seems clear they intend to
punch a new SPY all-time-high soon
and bot manip to infinity and beyond.
because, too much money is never enough?
aka: SPY 500, baby!
because they can...
re: QE is for recessions right?
...or for whenever elite bankers
need to upgrade their yachts
to keep up with the vanderbilts...